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Weather for OSU @ RU: lock it up for seasonable and dry

RU848789

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After a gorgeous early fall week, the official forecast from the NWS is for mostly sunny and dry conditions to continue through Saturday with a seasonable high near 70F (typical is 71/48F on 10/2), which would be great. However, we're still 6+ days out and at least one model is showing some light showers Saturday afternoon (the rest are dry), as a result of a cold front with an attendant low pressure system, so this far out, there's enough uncertainty to be concerned about having a few showers during the afternoon (although even these would be light and not result in anywhere near a washout). Let's hope it stays dry, so we can have a great tailgate and game with full attendance.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
 
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Just hyping fear???

The headline is way overhyped, but the article is maybe only slightly hyped, as they're noting that it's still possible that the models will be wrong, since forcast track accuracy for hurricanes 8-9 days out is poor, but they do make it clear that that's not the forecast. However, the likelihood of Sam even coming close to the US east coast is very low and the chances of a direct hit are very close to zero (but not zero, while the storm is still this far away). Been posting about Sam in the tropical weather thread.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...eason-sam-likely-to-remain-out-to-sea.223702/
 
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After a gorgeous early fall week, the official forecast from the NWS is for mostly sunny and dry conditions to continue through Saturday with a seasonable high near 70F (typical is 71/48F on 10/2), which would be great. However, we're still 6+ days out and at least one model is showing some light showers Saturday afternoon (the rest are dry), as a result of a cold front with an attendant low pressure system, so this far out, there's enough uncertainty to be concerned about having a few showers during the afternoon (although even these would be light and not result in anywhere near a washout). Let's hope it stays dry, so we can have a great tailgate and game with full attendance.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
After several model cycles in a row showing no precip anywhere from Wednesday through Sunday morning (and none until at least later Sunday), it's time to lock it up for seasonable and dry for tailgates and the game. Should be a gorgeous, mostly sunny day with highs around 70F, low humidity (dewpoints around 50F), and no rain. Can't wait, especially after seeing those new ads on TV (seeing them on the Cowboys-Eagles game tonight) featuring Schiano and RU fans as part of an effort to get folks to come out to the OSU game - sellout looks possible to me. 5 days out is pretty early for this level of confidence, but the pattern seems very entrenched and well modeled, so let's hope it verifies.
 
Thanks for the update.
Hopefully Johnson Park will be open for parking this Saturday with all this dry weather.
 
After several model cycles in a row showing no precip anywhere from Wednesday through Sunday morning (and none until at least later Sunday), it's time to lock it up for seasonable and dry for tailgates and the game. Should be a gorgeous, mostly sunny day with highs around 70F, low humidity (dewpoints around 50F), and no rain. Can't wait, especially after seeing those new ads on TV (seeing them on the Cowboys-Eagles game tonight) featuring Schiano and RU fans as part of an effort to get folks to come out to the OSU game - sellout looks possible to me. 5 days out is pretty early for this level of confidence, but the pattern seems very entrenched and well modeled, so let's hope it verifies.


there are forecasts now showing perhaps some showers after midnight Saturday...as long as that holds we are fine but we know sometimes systems speed up and in this case if the Omega block breaks down quicker than anticipated then we could have an issue
 
there are forecasts now showing perhaps some showers after midnight Saturday...as long as that holds we are fine but we know sometimes systems speed up and in this case if the Omega block breaks down quicker than anticipated then we could have an issue

True, there's always an outside chance the models are missing something with regard to speed of the approaching weak low pressure system on Sunday, but we're now only 4 days out and all of the 12Z models still show dry conditions throught about 1-2 am Sunday with only one really showing measureable precip before about 6 am Sunday, so given the model consensus and the NWS downplaying any showers until Sunday, I'll stick with the "lock it up for seasonable (~70F high) and dry conditions" call - Saturday should simply be gorgeous all day. Here's what the NWS had to say...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast begins rather benign and dry overall for
Friday through Saturday. High pressure is forecast to build
southward out of southeastern Canada Friday through Saturday,
before move out of the area Saturday night. Northwest flow aloft
will keep temperatures seasonably cool and dry weather in place
through Saturday. Then questions develop for the remainder of
the weekend into early next week due to model differences. The
GFS breaks down the high and retreats it northward as a frontal
boundary approaches from the south and stalls near the area into
early next week. However, the ECMWF, Canadian, and other
guidance shift the high to our south while a backdoor cold front
moves into the area, before stalling near the area into early
next week. Due to the uncertainty in the model guidance, we have
stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast.
Either way, there will be a chance of showers from Sunday
through Tuesday. If the backdoor cold front solution ends up
being the outcome, temperatures over the weekend into early next
week could be a few degrees warmer than forecast before the
front moves through.
 
True, there's always an outside chance the models are missing something with regard to speed of the approaching weak low pressure system on Sunday, but we're now only 4 days out and all of the 12Z models still show dry conditions throught about 1-2 am Sunday with only one really showing measureable precip before about 6 am Sunday, so given the model consensus and the NWS downplaying any showers until Sunday, I'll stick with the "lock it up for seasonable (~70F high) and dry conditions" call - Saturday should simply be gorgeous all day. Here's what the NWS had to say...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term forecast begins rather benign and dry overall for
Friday through Saturday. High pressure is forecast to build
southward out of southeastern Canada Friday through Saturday,
before move out of the area Saturday night. Northwest flow aloft
will keep temperatures seasonably cool and dry weather in place
through Saturday. Then questions develop for the remainder of
the weekend into early next week due to model differences. The
GFS breaks down the high and retreats it northward as a frontal
boundary approaches from the south and stalls near the area into
early next week. However, the ECMWF, Canadian, and other
guidance shift the high to our south while a backdoor cold front
moves into the area, before stalling near the area into early
next week. Due to the uncertainty in the model guidance, we have
stayed close to the National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast.
Either way, there will be a chance of showers from Sunday
through Tuesday. If the backdoor cold front solution ends up
being the outcome, temperatures over the weekend into early next
week could be a few degrees warmer than forecast before the
front moves through.

Forecast is even more of a lock than yesterday, if that's possible, lol. Now, there is no model showing any showers before Sunday night, as the strong ridge looks like it will hold on for at least one more day, bringing us seasonable and dry weather from now through Sunday. Saturday should be spectacular with mostly sunny skies, high temps around 70F, low humidity, light winds and zero chance of rain. Great day for tailgates and football.
 
Good to see this thread back to its rightful place on the Board after a bogus coup attempt.
 
Good to see this thread back to its rightful place on the Board after a bogus coup attempt.
Thanks. It's pretty obvious the "management" doesn't like my science/weather/***** posts for reasons that are beyond my understanding (most seem to like or at least tolerate them on other social media sites), but it's not worth arguing about any more. I also have zero issue with more weather threads - pretty sure the vast majority of posters know which of the threads delivers high quality content (and, somehow, controversy, lol) for those who find it easier to get that content here (even though it's mostly available at any number of weather sites).
 
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Progged high temperatures continue to be upped by the day. What started as a high of 69 now is up to 77. Wouldn't be surprised to see a run at 80

So dress comfortably for warm weather even if the morning starts cool. At least as warm as the first game but cooler than the 2nd game. Looks like shorts and sleeveless..aka Rutgers tuxedo a good call.

And don't forget to wear your sunscreen!
 
Progged high temperatures continue to be upped by the day. What started as a high of 69 now is up to 77. Wouldn't be surprised to see a run at 80

So dress comfortably for warm weather even if the morning starts cool. At least as warm as the first game but cooler than the 2nd game. Looks like shorts and sleeveless..aka Rutgers tuxedo a good call.

And don't forget to wear your sunscreen!
Yes, temps have moved up a bit, but it still won't feel nearly as hot/muggy as 2 weeks ago when we had temps in the low 80s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s - dewpoints on Saturday will be in the low/mid 50s, so it will feel quite cool in the morning and very comfortable in the afternoon; a light breeze will also keep it from feeling too warm. And definitely wear sunscreen. Should be a spectacular day...

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