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Weather for Temple @ RU: warm, but possible/probable showers

RU848789

RU848789

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Too early to really make a "call" on this one, as uncertainty is way too high with this kind of setup, as we expect to see a major trough and attendant cold front moving through sometime on Saturday, probably in the afternoon or evening and with warm air in place (highs in the low 80s) this is a recipe for some potential showers and maybe t-storms. See the NWS discussion below, which is pretty sparse, since we're 6 days away and uncertainty is very high.

However, right now the models are showing anything from little to no rain in the afternoon to evening to some significant storms (and t-storms) with potential occasional heavy rains - the kind that could put down 1/2" in 30 minutes, but not a steady rain for hours. All depends on the timing of the front and the amount of convection/storms produced by that front and all of that is still in question. Could easily be one of those days where it's partly cloudy and warm 90% of the time, but there are a few 20-30 minute showers with 1/4" rain for each one - and also one of those days where we see significant storms in some locations and little to no precip in others. Stay tuned.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A surface trough is expected to develop to the lee of the
Appalachians late in the week. A cold front is then forecast to
approach from the northwest and it should make its way through
our region around Saturday evening.

We will indicate a chance of showers and thunderstorms in at
least some parts of our area from late Thursday into Saturday.
Presently, it appears as though the cold front and its
associated precipitation will move off the coast in time to
allow for a dry Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 
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No clarity yet and I doubt we'll have clarity on this one until at least Friday, as that front is looking like it's coming through on Saturday afternoon/evening, but predicting when, where, and how intense any showers might be (and even if we'll have any showers) is impossible at this distance. I could probably just cut and paste that sentence for the next 5 days, lol.
 
One thing to keep in mind. It's very unlikely to rain all day. This is not some large "storm" (like a nor'easter) that will be pounding us with mostly continuous rain for 12+ hours. It's a cold front moving into and through some moist, warm unstable air, which produces mesoscale convective storms, which are impossible to predict from here.

Like we've seen several times this summer, the outcome could very well be a few lines of storms and t-storms over 6-12 hours that might put down 1/4-1/2" of rain in 30 minutes a couple of times, sandwiched around a few hours in a row of warm, but dry conditions before and after any storms. But we've also seen these kinds of setups where one area gets 2" of rain and storms and areas not more than 20-30 miles away get very little rain and these can't even be predicted 5 hours in advance, let alone 5 days in advance.

As a fan, my biggest concern isn't rain, as I can handle rain - my biggest concern is t-storms, which will send people scurrying into their cars while tailgating and which will result in game delays if they happen during the game - been a few years since that happened, since we tend to get t-storms much less frequently once Sept. rolls around, but we've seen it before (Army on 9/14/02 is the last one I recall at home).
 
RU848789 said:
Too early to really make a "call" on this one, as uncertainty is way too high with this kind of setup, as we expect to see a major trough and attendant cold front moving through sometime on Saturday, probably in the afternoon or evening and with warm air in place (highs in the low 80s) this is a recipe for some potential showers and maybe t-storms. See the NWS discussion below, which is pretty sparse, since we're 6 days away and uncertainty is very high.

However, right now the models are showing anything from little to no rain in the afternoon to evening to some significant storms (and t-storms) with potential occasional heavy rains - the kind that could put down 1/2" in 30 minutes, but not a steady rain for hours. All depends on the timing of the front and the amount of convection/storms produced by that front and all of that is still in question. Could easily be one of those days where it's partly cloudy and warm 90% of the time, but there are a few 20-30 minute showers with 1/4" rain for each one - and also one of those days where we see significant storms in some locations and little to no precip in others. Stay tuned.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A surface trough is expected to develop to the lee of the
Appalachians late in the week. A cold front is then forecast to
approach from the northwest and it should make its way through
our region around Saturday evening.

We will indicate a chance of showers and thunderstorms in at
least some parts of our area from late Thursday into Saturday.
Presently, it appears as though the cold front and its
associated precipitation will move off the coast in time to
allow for a dry Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Click to expand...
When will there be a Temple game weather thread? 🫣
 
RU848789 said:
No clarity yet and I doubt we'll have clarity on this one until at least Friday, as that front is looking like it's coming through on Saturday afternoon/evening, but predicting when, where, and how intense any showers might be (and even if we'll have any showers) is impossible at this distance. I could probably just cut and paste that sentence for the next 5 days, lol.
Click to expand...
Still too early for a call?
 
RU848789 said:
One thing to keep in mind. It's very unlikely to rain all day. This is not some large "storm" (like a nor'easter) that will be pounding us with mostly continuous rain for 12+ hours. It's a cold front moving into and through some moist, warm unstable air, which produces mesoscale convective storms, which are impossible to predict from here.

Like we've seen several times this summer, the outcome could very well be a few lines of storms and t-storms over 6-12 hours that might put down 1/4-1/2" of rain in 30 minutes a couple of times, sandwiched around a few hours in a row of warm, but dry conditions before and after any storms. But we've also seen these kinds of setups where one area gets 2" of rain and storms and areas not more than 20-30 miles away get very little rain and these can't even be predicted 5 hours in advance, let alone 5 days in advance.

As a fan, my biggest concern isn't rain, as I can handle rain - my biggest concern is t-storms, which will send people scurrying into their cars while tailgating and which will result in game delays if they happen during the game - been a few years since that happened, since we tend to get t-storms much less frequently once Sept. rolls around, but we've seen it before (Army on 9/14/02 is the last one I recall at home).
Click to expand...
So this won't be 2002 Temple game weather bad?
 
mdh2003 said:
Still too early for a call?
Click to expand...
Kind of, although having at least some showers during the afternoon and evening, including possibly a couple of heavier showers and t-storms (could easily see 1/4-1/2" of rain in the afternoon and another 1/4" during the game, but it's also possible we'll see less - too early to predict rainfall amounts accurately), is looking a bit more likely, which sucks. Will be pretty warm and humid with temps in the mid-80s for highs and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and temps/humidity won't drop much - temps will drop into the mid/upper 70s for the game, but with dewpoints still in the low 70s, which is pretty muggy. Showers are trending towards being more likely before the game than during, but that's not a given this far out.
 
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megadrone said:
So this won't be 2002 Temple game weather bad?
Click to expand...
No, that was a nor'easter with nearly continuous moderate to heavy cold rain with probably 1-2" falling. Worst game weather ever IMO. This is a frontal system slowly moving into a moist, unstable air mass with a couple of upper level short waves rotating through our area along the front, inducing showers, i.e., this is not a "storm" per se, much like most of the convective showers we've had this summer.

It will still likely be fairly crappy, muggy, wet weather with a few or maybe several showers from noon through midnight on Saturday, but impossible to predict when, where and how intense this far out - I'd guess 1/4-1/2" of rain over that period, but that might be over 2 hours of actual rain out of those 12 hours with the rest of the hours being dry. That's a WAG. The rain may actually be refreshing...
 
Projected temperature keeps going up for Saturday.
 
bac2therac said:
No one has a clue what will happen and likely we wont know until Saturday morning
Click to expand...
Yep, this has had the makings of a "watch the radar" kind of day from the get go, unfortunately. Today's 12Z models are still all over the map for 2 pm to 11 pm Saturday, with the NAM and CMC showing little to no shower activity, while the UK and Euro shows some showers but nowhere near all the time and the GFS shows some drenching showers.

Hard to make a forecast from that, which is why we see the NWS say things like this for Saturday from 6 am to 6 pm: "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible." What they don't say is that the showers are more likely in the afternoon, after daytime heating has destabilized the atmosphere. Also, there are some indications that the rain chances will diminish after sunset (right around kickoff). Too early still.
 
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I can't imagine the guys practicing to hard in this heat. Can cut the air with a knife. This week was brutal.
 
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RU848789 said:
Yep, this has had the makings of a "watch the radar" kind of day from the get go, unfortunately. Today's 12Z models are still all over the map for 2 pm to 11 pm Saturday, with the NAM and CMC showing little to no shower activity, while the UK and Euro shows some showers but nowhere near all the time and the GFS shows some drenching showers.

Hard to make a forecast from that, which is why we see the NWS say things like this for Saturday from 6 am to 6 pm: "A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible." What they don't say is that the showers are more likely in the afternoon, after daytime heating has destabilized the atmosphere. Also, there are some indications that the rain chances will diminish after sunset (right around kickoff). Too early still.
Click to expand...

I like going with the nam with these systems
 
RU848789 said:
I remember midget and then HS practices in the August heat, in the 70s, when coaches didn't care about killing little kids, lol.
Click to expand...

The heat didn’t kill us as youth or HS players in the 90s though…it was Oklahoma drills that did many on the team in lol
 
seen some disco around that Saturday may turn out less wet than anticipated. To me this is the best case scenario given what we had to work with one week out....we watch

here is a Dan Zarrow snippet

Saturday will not be a perfect weather day. But the forecast is looking brighter and drier than it had been, so that is good news.

We will begin Saturday with mostly cloudy skies. It will be warm, with highs climbing into the mid 80s. (Akin to a typical midsummer day.) And it will still be very humid too.


A similar setup on Saturday will likely spark a few showers over New Jersey. Localized downpours are possible. (Accuweather)A similar setup on Saturday will likely spark a few showers over New Jersey. Localized downpours are possible. (Accuweather)

Rain chances will be limited on Saturday. But I do think we will see some hit-or-miss showers develop in the afternoon and evening hours. While I think calling these pockets of rain "thunderstorms" would be an overdramatization, there could be some downpours around. That's the element that would get in the way of your outdoor plans Saturday.

Bottom line: More dry hours than wet hours, but be prepared in case a shower comes to visit your neighborhood.



Read More: NJ weather: Heat scales back, humidity and storms here to stay | https://nj1015.com/nj-weather-heat-...-stay/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral
 
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bac2therac said:
I like going with the nam with these systems
Click to expand...
The NAM is often pretty good within 24-48 hours and it's been on the drier side of the models for Saturday, showing maybe 0.2" from 2 pm to midnight, while some others show 1/2" or so during that time and the coverage of that kind of rainfall is highly variable.

It is encouraging that the NWS decreased their forecast rainfall amounts. Yesterday the forecasts for 6 am to 6 pm Sat and then from 6 pm Sat to 6 am Sunday both said, "New rainfall amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms," whereas this morning the forecasts call for "New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms," for both periods.

It's still going to be warm (mid 80s for highs) and pretty muggy (dewpoints in the mid-70s in the afternoon and evening), but hopefully we can get by with just a few showers with most of the time being mostly cloudy, but dry. However, it's impossible to predict where the scattered downpours from heavier showers will be - most areas won't get them but some will and such showers can put down 1/2" or more of rain in 30 minutes, so we'll need to be watching the radar. Lastly, there's still some small risk of a lightning-induced game delay. Good NWS discussion below.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
620 AM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures trending downward however it will remain humid,
with at least some convection around especially each afternoon
and evening.

The temperatures are expected to be cooler Saturday however it
will still be humid with some showers and thunderstorms. As an
upper- level trough remains to our west, a weak cold front will
be stalling across our region. The coverage of convection is
less certain Saturday as there could be a lull in the larger
scale forcing despite a surface front in the area. Given
temperatures forecast to be cooler, the magnitude of the
instability is also forecast to be lower. In addition, the shear
looks a little less however ample boundary layer heating should
lead to steepening low-level lapse rates once again. This would
tend to still support some convectively generated stronger
surface wind gusts if enough convection develops and especially
if it organizes some. In addition, the precipitable water values
will be in the 1.5-2.0 inches range Saturday and therefore
convection will produce locally heavy rain. While some much
needed rain has recently fallen across parts of eastern
Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, the entire region can
certainly use the rain, therefore the overall flash flooding
risk should be limited outside of the more urban areas.
 
Last edited:
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bac2therac said:
The period from 2-6PM offers the greatest threat for showers..but scattered not widespread. Radar watching becomes mandatory

Game time and beyond is looking increasingly less likely to rain
Click to expand...
All that matters. 75% of our fans aren't in the lots/heading over in busses until the 90-minute window anyway.
 
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Politi says dry:


“Hopefully this will *NOT* be an issue, but a few people have asked about weather policies so I checked in with Rutgers. If there is lightning detected in the area tomorrow night, the game will be delayed much like the Scarlet Knights' game at Indiana was a couple years back. Based on the current forecast, it looks like your tailgates might be wet but the weather will clear up by kickoff. Let's hope that's the case.” -- Politi
 
As expected, still a lot of uncertainty over the timing, location, and intensity of any showers and possible t-storms tomorrow. The NWS forecast is for less showers/storms than today, which is good as today has been a real mess for many with some severe storms bringing downpours, high wind gusts and localized flooding (some spots getting 3-6" of rain, while some got very little). If one looks at the graphic below, the most likely time for showers is the late afternoon, which is common in these instability-driven convection setups, as the heating of the day energizes the atmosphere, which will already be very moist and warm (temps in the mid-80sd and wpoints in the low/mid-70s).

As per the discussion below, while activity looks to be less than this afternoon, a strong storm or two with a downpour and some lightning can't be ruled out - hopefully, we'll just get weaker showers and less rain, especially as the strongest forcing for showers should be a bit to the NW of 95. There should also be large stretches of dry weather with mostly cloudy skies. And in setups like this, the chances of storms/showers usually go down in the evening, so we might have a shot at a mostly dry game, although again a shower/storm can't be ruled out, which is why many of us will be watching the radar. Lee Goldberg basically just said much of the same...

On Saturday, the risk for severe weather looks much more
`marginal`, given more clouds to start, lower temperatures with
highs mainly in the 80s, and less instability. Still, given a
very moist airmass remaining in place with dewpoints in the 70s,
high precipitable water values, and perhaps just `enough` shear,
if we see some clearing in the afternoon, there will be a threat
for at least isolated strong to severe storms. It is possible
that we see a somewhat similar scenario to today, with some
storms firing just inland from the shore along the sea breeze,
then lifting northward, but perhaps less intensity and coverage
that what we are seeing on Friday.

WnluPJr.png
 
Tango Two said:
Politi says dry:


“Hopefully this will *NOT* be an issue, but a few people have asked about weather policies so I checked in with Rutgers. If there is lightning detected in the area tomorrow night, the game will be delayed much like the Scarlet Knights' game at Indiana was a couple years back. Based on the current forecast, it looks like your tailgates might be wet but the weather will clear up by kickoff. Let's hope that's the case.” -- Politi
Click to expand...

Not sure what game at Indiana he's talking about. I was at the one "a couple of years ago" (almost exactly 2 years ago) and it was sunny, windy and damn cold.
 
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RU4Real said:
Not sure what game at Indiana he's talking about. I was at the one "a couple of years ago" (almost exactly 2 years ago) and it was sunny, windy and damn cold.
Click to expand...
The one all those idiot dudes were dancing topless the entire 2nd half?
 
AreYouNUTS said:
The one all those idiot dudes were dancing topless the entire 2nd half?
Click to expand...

No, we were right behind the RU bench. For some reason the Scarlet Knight mascot spent an unusual amount of time hanging out with us.

Had a great tailgate, though - some IU fans saw us getting out of the car with our RU gear (except for my SIL, who is an IU grad) and insisted we join them. We had them out last year for the IU game in Piscataway.
 
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