Weather for UW @ RU: Should be warm, cloudy and mostly dry, but a few sprinkles/light showers are possible

[RU848789]

The forecast from every source, right now, shows it being seasonably warm (highs in the low/mid-70s and evening temps in the mid/upper 60s; normal for 9/27 is a high/low of 74/52F) and dry for the tailgates and game, with a front coming through by late Thursday/early Friday, but we're still 7 days out (from last night's model runs) and that front is slow moving (and hence, a bit unpredictable) and there are modeled areas of precip not far from our region on Friday, meaning it's still quite possible that the synoptic evolution could vary significantly and one of those systems could bring us some rain on Friday. So, cautiously optimistic for nice weather, but too far out with too much uncertainty for it to be a lock (that's pretty rare 7 days out).

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=231&y=81&site=phi&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=231&map_y=81

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
418 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The Long Term period will feature a prolonged period of
unsettled weather.

Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
and a cold front will extend down from that low. Meanwhile,
high pressure will be over the Canadian Maritimes, and the the
base of that high will extend down into the Northeast. While
this should keep the front from making much headway on Tuesday,
the high should depart by Wednesday, and then low pressure drags
the front into the local area. Models are suggesting that by
Wednesday, a trough moves in from the west, and with some
shortwave energy, low pressure could develop on that front. This
would bring more in the way of rainfall to the area from
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Will follow NBM and go
with likely PoPs during that time. However, there are
inconsistencies among the models, so this may change.

The front may not fully clear the region until Friday or so,
and unsettled weather may remain in place until then.

 

[RU848789]

No real change in the forecast, as the NWS, AccuWeather and the WUnderground all have seasonable temps with some chance of light showers Thursday into early Friday, but dry conditions for Friday afternoon/night. 3 of the 4 major models are dry all day Friday, but the GFS has moderate showers until about noon, followed by dry conditions and the other models have some light showers not that far from CNJ into the afternoon on Friday.

So there's moderate confidence in a dry tailgate/game, but uncertainty is still high enough to make it hard to rule out a few light showers showing up for the tailgates/game - the good news, though, is there are no signs of any significant storms/rain on Friday. The NWS discussion is below. I'd like to think the risk of a light shower or two won't keep fans away and that we'll have a sellout for a team that played in the NC game last year.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
648 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather on tap for much of the Long Term period.

High pressure over eastern Canada finally departs, allowing low
pressure and its associated cold front to slowly track east. A
mid-level trough approaches from the west, and this may allow a
secondary low to form on the front as it passes through the
region. Showers will become likely for most of the region
Wednesday and Wednesday night as this system passes through.
Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms as well.

There are some timing issues with how long it will take the
front to depart, so showers will continue into Thursday, and
possibly Friday as well. Will follow NBM PoPs and carry chance
PoPs Thursday, slight chance Friday and Saturday, though
Saturday may end up being dry.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

That’s a BEAUTIFUL forecast!!!

 

[RU848789]

Forecast is improving with chances for any rain down to 10% or less for Friday, but we're still 5 days out, so would like to see another day or so of dry models (all of the 12Z models today were dry for Friday) before thinking dry is a lock. But it's becoming a pretty high confidence forecast for partly sunny, warm (highs in the mid-70s and evening temps in the mid/upper 60s), and dry with comfortable humidity (dewpoints in the upper 50s).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
406 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As the mid-level trough approaches from the west later Wednesday
into Wednesday night, this may allow a secondary low to form on the
front as it passes through the region. Showers will become likely
for most of the region Wednesday night as this system passes
through. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms as well.

There are some timing issues with how long it will take the front to
depart, so showers may continue into Thursday but much of Friday and
next weekend look dry. Will follow NBM PoPs and carry slight chance
(15-25%) PoPs Thursday across the area, then slight chance PoPs
limited to portions of the southern half of the region for Friday
through Sunday, though most of this period may end up being dry.

 

[bac2therac]

The danger here is a small shift can impact alot. These systems the last 2 weeks have been suppressed. Currently its forecasted to be suppressed again but there is a ton of moisture shunted to midwest and out to sea by the models. Keep that in the back of your minds. The evolution of the midweek system seems uncertain

 

[RU848789]

The danger here is a small shift can impact alot. These systems the last 2 weeks have been suppressed. Currently its forecasted to be suppressed again but there is a ton of moisture shunted to midwest and out to sea by the models. Keep that in the back of your minds. The evolution of the midweek system seems uncertain

Good points and that's why I'm not quite ready to say it's a lock yet for dry, especially given how badly last week's "rain" was forecast even 2-3 days out, although that was a more complex setup with a potential tropical storm in the mix. And I'd definitely like to see some model consistency for a dry forecast over the next few cycles, too. If things look this good for every model cycle from now through tomorrow at 12Z, I'd feel it's a lock. That's a bit arbitrary - just my opinion.

 

[Extra Point]

It is so cool seeing the Rutgers vs Washington commercial during the NFL game. I think Rutgers is going to have a big crowd.

 

[bac2therac]

Need to watch that tropical system that develops because precip could get funnelled up here at the end of the week...if not a very nice day and might see temps approaching 80 during the day with comfortable 60s during the bulk of the game

 

[RU848789]

Need to watch that tropical system that develops because precip could get funnelled up here at the end of the week...if not a very nice day and might see temps approaching 80 during the day with comfortable 60s during the bulk of the game

Possible that Helene's remnants eventually affect us (but also very possible they won't), but they almost certainly won't affect the game. The NWS-Philly comments about that were that some precip from the system could reach DelMarVa by late Friday (when they have shower chances increasing to 15-20%) and even the NWS-Wakefield is saying precip would likely only reach into SE VA by Friday, so any impact on our game is extremely unlikely.

 

[RU848789]

Good points and that's why I'm not quite ready to say it's a lock yet for dry, especially given how badly last week's "rain" was forecast even 2-3 days out, although that was a more complex setup with a potential tropical storm in the mix. And I'd definitely like to see some model consistency for a dry forecast over the next few cycles, too. If things look this good for every model cycle from now through tomorrow at 12Z, I'd feel it's a lock. That's a bit arbitrary - just my opinion.

All of the models except one show Friday being dry from at least noon through midnight and all of the major forecasts show the same; the one exception is the CMC model which shows some sprinkles and a few light showers (but amounting to <0.1" over ~10 hours). It does not look like Helene's remnants will be impacting our weather at all, either (at least not through Friday). So, essentially a lock for warm (highs in the upper 70s) and dry with partly cloudy skies and reasonable humidity (dewpoints in the upper 50s). Would be nice to see all of the models showing no rain before declaring the forecast an absolute lock for dry conditions (maybe after tonight's runs). But the big picture is that it's extremely likely we have a warm, dry afternoon and evening.

 

[RU848789]

All of the models except one show Friday being dry from at least noon through midnight and all of the major forecasts show the same; the one exception is the CMC model which shows some sprinkles and a few light showers (but amounting to <0.1" over ~10 hours). It does not look like Helene's remnants will be impacting our weather at all, either (at least not through Friday). So, essentially a lock for warm (highs in the upper 70s) and dry with partly cloudy skies and reasonable humidity (dewpoints in the upper 50s). Would be nice to see all of the models showing no rain before declaring the forecast an absolute lock for dry conditions (maybe after tonight's runs). But the big picture is that it's extremely likely we have a warm, dry afternoon and evening.

Same model results for last night's 0Z models, i.e., all were dry for all day Friday, except the CMC (Canadian), which has some light showers on Friday afternoon/evening, but only totaling 0.1" or less. The NWS-WPC shows zero rain for our area through Sunday morning, as per the graphic below, but our local NWS-Philly has a ~20% light shower chance for Friday evening, which is surprising, given the WPC guidance (they don't always agree 100%, as they're different parts of the NWS). Helene's remnants will likely head NW after landfall in FL towards KY and then become absorbed into the large Midwest cutoff low, but it's possible a bit of moisture from that complex could reach our area late Friday, which is what the NWS-Philly is speculating about. Also, predicting any interaction 4 days out with remnants from a storm which hasn't even formed yet is very difficult.

Far more likely, still, for it to remain dry through the game than to have any brief, light showers/sprinkles, but still too much uncertainty to say it's an absolute lock for it to be dry. Still looking at partly cloudy skies during the day with highs in the upper 70s with clouds increasing for the game and temps in the mid/upper 60s, with dewpoints in the ~60F range. Note that when there is full sun for anyone there before about 4 pm, it's going to feel a bit toasty.

 

[ceranm]

Was there a negative update in forecast? Seeing higher chance of rain now on weather.com

 

[bac2therac]

Was there a negative update in forecast? Seeing higher chance of rain now on weather.com

Models having the precip field being pulled a bit more north. Its still too far away from major impact. I just think Numbers was a little too aggressive with his extremely unlikely wording. There has always been a small chance some rain does get swept up. Its still more unlikely to happen than happen but still cant be ruled out

 

[ceranm]

Models having the precip field being pulled a bit more north. Its still too far away from major impact. I just think Numbers was a little too aggressive with his extremely unlikely wording. There has always been a small chance some rain does get swept up. Its still more unlikely to happen than happen but still cant be ruled out

Thanks

 

[RU848789]

Was there a negative update in forecast? Seeing higher chance of rain now on weather.com

Not really. Every model, except one (CMC) shows the precip staying SW of about a Philly to LBI line, plus the precip is ight showers, nothing heavy even if it somehow makes it this far north. AccuWeather, WUnderground and the NWS all show some low level chance of a sprinkle or two, but remember a 20% chance of rain simply means a 20% chance of at least 0.01" of rain (a very small amount) in the area of concern (the amount matters too). Nobody can guarantee a dry day, but that's still far more likely than getting some sprinkles or a few brief light showers.

 

[bac2therac]

latest forecast is for mostly cloudy and muggy conditions on Friday with highs in the upper 70s and game temps generally in the mid to upper 60s. The rain chance is still hanging around although not likely but Mt Holly is mentioning it.



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is more uncertainty than normal for the long range period as
the pattern will be quite complex over eastern North America. To
start the period early Friday, there will be an upper level low over
the Canadian Maritimes with another upper low near the Gulf
coast in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Meanwhile upper
level ridging will be over the Great Lakes with a surface high
over PA. Finally, by this time the upper low near the Gulf coast
will have likely pulled in the tropical cyclone which should be
situated by this time somewhere over the SE CONUS. The main
uncertainty hinges around whether some of the moisture to our
south will be able to move northward bringing the area some rain
this weekend or whether the ridging to our north will suppress
it south. The latest guidance keeps the trend toward bringing
some decaying remnants of the system to our south a bit farther
north suggesting an increased chance for rain this weekend along
with more in the way of cloud cover. Given the continuing
uncertainty in the forecast, we stayed close to the NBM which
generally brings the area POPs of around 25 to 35 percent for
Friday-Friday night decreasing to 15-25 percent for Saturday
and Sunday.

 

[RU848789]

Models having the precip field being pulled a bit more north. Its still too far away from major impact. I just think Numbers was a little too aggressive with his extremely unlikely wording. There has always been a small chance some rain does get swept up. Its still more unlikely to happen than happen but still cant be ruled out

I was talking more about the actual remnant low from Helene, which clearly will end up dissipating in KY/IN, but I could have worded it better. The moisture that may head up to the coast south of us and eventually toward us isn't really Helene moisture, per se, at that point, as two lows will splitting off from each other (Helene's remnants and the possible coastal low), but it still has a small chance at giving us a light brief shower or two, especially during the game - and most people don't care much about the fine detail/origins of the moisture, as they just want to know if it's going to rain.

Anyway, the CMC is still the only 0Z model, tonight, giving us ~0.1" of rain from about 2 pm to 11 pm, but some others are now showing some sprinkles and maybe a light shower or two (<0.05") during this time, while some are still dry. FWIW, Lee Goldberg still has Friday as partly to mostly cloudy and dry (and warm with highs in the upper 70s and a bit humid with dewpoints in the low 60s) for NYC metro, which includes us. I'm assuming the NWS will still be keeping ~20% shower chances (but very little actual accumulation of rain) for Friday afternoon/evening (we'll see).

 

[bac2therac]

Its getting a bit too close for comfort for me..they are raising the rain chances up for southern Jersey Friday afternoon and evening. While at the moment forecast for tailgating and game is mainly just cloudy, any further shifts north could impact negatively

 

[RU848789]

Its getting a bit too close for comfort for me..they are raising the rain chances up for southern Jersey Friday afternoon and evening. While at the moment forecast for tailgating and game is mainly just cloudy, any further shifts north could impact negatively

Agree that it's worrisome that there is a greater risk of showers (albeit still light ones of maybe 0.1") from Philly to Toms River and SW of that line than before, but the NWS-Philly actually dropped the rain chance for CNJ a bit, at least through the game, with light showers holding off until after midnight. I'd be very happy with mostly cloudy to cloudy and warm (highs in the upper 70s with moderate humidity, i.e., dewpoints in the low 60s), but no real measurable rain (maybe a sprinkle or two), which is the forecast now.

Also, this morning's 6Z models are all completely dry through the game (despite there being showers to our SW), which was nice to see. In addition, AccuWeather, Wunderground and Lee Goldberg all predict no measurable rain for Friday with just low chances of nuisance sprinkles (i.e., <0.01"). And, while nobody wants to see the low probability worst case of about 0.1" of rain it's also not a terribly bad worst case (vs. other games where we've had heavy rain).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
647 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The forecast continues to be a bit tricky for Friday, Friday night,
and beyond as there will be competing factors at play. To our north,
low pressure and it`s associated upper level trough will be
departing over the Canadian Maritimes with high pressure building in
in its wake over southern Quebec. This setup will try to advect
cooler and drier air south through New England towards the Mid
Atlantic. However to our south, there will be a large upper level
low centered near the Gulf coast in the lower Mississippi Valley.
This feature will wrap in and merge with large Tropical Cyclone
Helene as it moves northward while weakening. What this means for
our area is that the cold front discussed above is likely to remain
stalled over Delmarva into southern NJ with some moisture from the
weakening storm to our south advecting northward bringing at least
some rain/showers into our area. The best chances for this look to
be late day Friday into Friday night over SE PA, southern NJ, and
points southward where POPs have been increased to 50 to 60 percent
(compared to 20 to 30 percent farther north through NE PA into NW
NJ). Otherwise expect overcast skies with east winds persisting with
highs Friday mainly in the 70s and lows Friday night mainly in the
60s.

 

[bac2therac]

3rd home game with cloudy gloomy skies..hopefully October provides us with bright sunshine and blue skies

 

[RU848789]

3rd home game with cloudy gloomy skies

much better than cloudy and rainy though...

 

[DJ Spanky]

much better than cloudy and rainy though...

....and sunny and 90+.

 

[RU848789]

....and sunny and 90+.

For normal people, not bac, lol...

 

[DJ Spanky]

For normal people, not bac, lol...

Man, Tyler and I baked in the direct sun at VT even though it was in the upper 80's. Blech!

 

[MGSA99]

The updated forecast has already sent stubhub tickets plummeting. Get in price is now under $20 when it was about $40 a few days ago. People are dumping their tickets.

 

[Rutgers25]

The updated forecast has already sent stubhub tickets plummeting. Get in price is now under $20 when it was about $40 a few days ago. People are dumping their tickets.

I highly doubt that is forecast related. Most people don’t read all the nuances and just see that Friday looks cloudy/gray but no real rain.
More likely a function of artificially inflated prices that are finally being priced to market.

 

[bac2therac]

....and sunny and 90+.

For normal people, not bac, lol...

Exactly..id be flexing my lo bro

 

[RobotHunter]

The updated forecast has already sent stubhub tickets plummeting. Get in price is now under $20 when it was about $40 a few days ago. People are dumping their tickets.

Dumping tickets because of cloud cover?

 

[RU848789]

Every 12Z model has it being dry through the end of the game, but they mostly show some showers (light ones, <0.1" of rain) not far SW of P'way, especially during the game. Let's hope the NE flow keeps the precip at bay.

 

[MGSA99]

Dumping tickets because of cloud cover?

People get scared about anything around here. Meanwhile top SEC schools will have every seat filled in a monsoon.

 

[fatsam98]

The updated forecast has already sent stubhub tickets plummeting. Get in price is now under $20 when it was about $40 a few days ago. People are dumping their tickets.

It's pretty normal for prices to come down as you get closer

 

[AreYouNUTS]

The updated forecast has already sent stubhub tickets plummeting. Get in price is now under $20 when it was about $40 a few days ago. People are dumping their tickets.

A slight slight slight chance of a shower, a light one toward the end of the game, is not the reason that ticket prices are going down two days before the game.

 

[RU848789]

Every 12Z model has it being dry through the end of the game, but they mostly show some showers (light ones, <0.1" of rain) not far SW of P'way, especially during the game. Let's hope the NE flow keeps the precip at bay.

All of the 18Z models are dry through the game, except for one showing 0.1" or so of rain mostly during the game (and this is the NAM, which was bone dry for several model runs before this) and a couple showing a sprinkle or two. The NWS is still showing ~20% chance of a light shower or two, but still has <0.01" of rain falling from 2 pm to midnight, which is similar to the AccuWeather and WUnderground forecasts, which both have <0.01" of actual rainfall total, despite ~20% rain chances and fwiw, Lee Goldberg still calling for dry conditions with maybe a stray shower or sprinkle. Yes, there is some small chance of 0.1" or so of rain, but the vast majority of the tailgates and game still look dry with maybe a sprinkle or two. No reason to not go and enjoy a warm, cloudy day and a great game.

 

[RU848789]

All of the 18Z models are dry through the game, except for one showing 0.1" or so of rain mostly during the game (and this is the NAM, which was bone dry for several model runs before this) and a couple showing a sprinkle or two. The NWS is still showing ~20% chance of a light shower or two, but still has <0.01" of rain falling from 2 pm to midnight, which is similar to the AccuWeather and WUnderground forecasts, which both have <0.01" of actual rainfall total, despite ~20% rain chances and fwiw, Lee Goldberg still calling for dry conditions with maybe a stray shower or sprinkle. Yes, there is some small chance of 0.1" or so of rain, but the vast majority of the tailgates and game still look dry with maybe a sprinkle or two. No reason to not go and enjoy a warm, cloudy day and a great game.

Ok folks, people are going to glance at their apps and freak out over a 20-30% "chance of rain" during the afternoon and a 30-50% chance of rain during the evening. But all that has happened is that there's now a greater chance of getting a few sprinkles (<0.01") during the tailgates and an even greater chance of getting 0.01" of rain during the game, as per the NWS graphic below for P'way and note that AccuWeather and WUnderground show very similar forecasts of 20-40% "chance" of rain, but only about 0.01" or actual rainfall from 2 pm to midnight. With temps in the low 70s and moderately humid and cloudy skies during the tailgates and temps only dropping into the mid-60s for the game, that amount of rain is nuisance level. Note that there could be 0.01-0.02" of rain for very early tailgaters from 8-11 am.

And looking at last night's models at 0Z and this morning's at 6Z, most of them still have zero measurable rain through about 8 pm with some having no rain through 11 pm and some having 0.01-0.02" of rain for the game/some having no measurable rain for the game. The forecast "looks" much worse than it is. One has to go down to about 195 from Trenton to Belmar to get into measurable rain of 0.02-0.04" before 7 pm and similar amounts from 7 pm to midnight (and one has to go down to a Dover DE to Cape May line to get up to 0.1" during that time). Could the 0.02-0.05" amounts from 2 pm through midnight make it up to P'way? Sure it's possible but not likely right now, just like having absolutely zero sprinkles is looking unlikely right now. But the forecast rainfall amount of ~0.01" from 2 pm to midnight is nothing to worry about, IMO.

 

[rurichdog]

It hasn't rained in a month...
No, that's a lie. It rained one day 3 weeks ago. Another RU game day ..

 

[bac2therac]

The rain chance is real. Dont downplay it. Its there. We may luck out and showers do not move this far north but with each model run the rain is moving closer and closer. Obviously the bulk stays in Delmarva and South Jersey. And yes if showers do push up they coukd be simikar to what we experienced Wednesday The thread title is a disaster. Oh while it wont be cool I wouldnt describe temperatures as warm

 

[Rutgers25]

So I think most on this board won’t be scared away by sprinkles / light showers. Real question is whether we’re starting to run the risk that the casual fan stays home. I feel like you lose 10% of the crowd as soon as any rain shows up in the forecast.

 

[RU848789]

The rain chance is real. Dont downplay it. Its there. We may luck out and showers do not move this far north but with each model run the rain is moving closer and closer. Obviously the bulk stays in Delmarva and South Jersey. And yes if showers do push up they coukd be simikar to what we experienced Wednesday The thread title is a disaster. Oh while it wont be cool I wouldnt describe temperatures as warm

I don't think I downplayed it and the thread title was changed to reflect the chance of sprinkles and a light shower or two. The current forecast and all of the models are still showing very little actual rainfall for P'way and even down to 195. I know you get your knickers in a twist about 0.01" of rain, but most don't. And low 70s with some humidity and light winds for most of the tailgates is seasonable/warm to me and mid/upper 60s for the game is well above normal (the low is expected to be in the low 60s vs. a normal low in the low 50s).

 

[RU848789]

So I think most on this board won’t be scared away by sprinkles / light showers. Real question is whether we’re starting to run the risk that the casual fan stays home. I feel like you lose 10% of the crowd as soon as any rain shows up in the forecast.

Yes, that is a risk, as we have some of the fairest of fair weather fans out there who whine about sprinkles.

 

[Plum Street]

The rain chance is real. Dont downplay it. Its there. We may luck out and showers do not move this far north but with each model run the rain is moving closer and closer. Obviously the bulk stays in Delmarva and South Jersey. And yes if showers do push up they coukd be simikar to what we experienced Wednesday The thread title is a disaster. Oh while it wont be cool I wouldnt describe temperatures as warm

What time would the showers be ?