Weather for WI: looking cloudy and cool with some showers

[RU848789]

At this point, the models are all over the place, so the weather forecast is very iffy for Wisconsin - it could be anywhere from relatively mild (for WI) and dry or it could be cool and showery. Will have to wait awhile before knowing on this one. Average high/low for 10/31 is 52-34 and best guess now is temps will be not too far from that (30s on Sat morning and low 50s for a high temp); it's the chance of showers that is really hard to predict from this far away. The NWS discussion reflects the uncertainty well:

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

GFS AND ECMWF (Euro model) BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE HIGH FOR SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS A SHORTWAVE AND RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA. SIZABLE SPREAD
IN TEMPS FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WHILE THE ECMWF WARMS BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL. STUCK CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR
NOW.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Wisconsin, although we won't play them yearly, is gonna be our new "WVU." We'll play late Oct/early November, in lousy weather, and never beat them despite thinking we can beat them.

 

[RU848789]

No change in the forecast. Lots of uncertainty, still on the potential for some showers on gameday, with temps still looking seasonable (low in the 30s and high in the low 50s). At least the showers they're discussing are likely to be light, but even light rain and cool temps is a bit of a bummer.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

A SHORTWAVE IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. MODELS NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE AND PRECIP...SO KEPT
POPS ON THE LOW END.

http://www.weather.gov/mkx/

 

[cRURah]

We better pray for nice weather. Wisconsin is a beast in the rain.

 

[RU848789]

NWS in WI expressing high confidence in their current forecast for Saturday, which is basically for cloudy and cool conditions (highs near 50F) with a decent chance of some light showers (maybe 0.05-0.10" of rain from 8 am to 4 pm). Could be a little breezy, too with 10-15 mph winds. Here's an excerpt from their discussion:

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.

A LARGE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

 

[dnmuller]

Thanks! I appreciate your posts!

 

[RU848789]

NWS in WI expressing high confidence in their current forecast for Saturday, which is basically for cloudy and cool conditions (highs near 50F) with a decent chance of some light showers (maybe 0.05-0.10" of rain from 8 am to 4 pm). Could be a little breezy, too with 10-15 mph winds. Here's an excerpt from their discussion:

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARDS WISCONSIN.

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN FLOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.

A LARGE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGS LIGHT RAIN INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

Forecast is getting worse by the day. NWS is now calling for significantly more precip from Saturday early morning through the afternoon. Showers/rain now listed as likely (70%), with precip amounts between 1/4-1/2" over the period from about 7 am to 4 pm. It's now likely to be wet and breezy (10-15 mph winds) - at least they're not as good at running as they were last year, so maybe it won't be a blowout again.

 

[RU848789]

Forecast is getting worse by the day. NWS is now calling for significantly more precip from Saturday early morning through the afternoon. Showers/rain now listed as likely (70%), with precip amounts between 1/4-1/2" over the period from about 7 am to 4 pm. It's now likely to be wet and breezy (10-15 mph winds) - at least they're not as good at running as they were last year, so maybe it won't be a blowout again.

Another adjustment was made to the forecast: the showers are now expected to be mostly over right around kickoff or just after that, so tailgates are predicted to get maybe up to 1/4" of rain, but <0.1" of rain is now expected for the game, when the rain should not be heavy or continuous. This may sound like major changes, since we care passionately about +/- 1-2 hours, but in the grand scheme of forecasting, these are really minor tweaks. Could still be a little breezy for the game.

 

[Mike from MD]

It will be wet and cold in the stands. The Rutgers section, LL is on the exposed north corner of the upper deck. Hopefully it's the only time I need to wear cold weather gear for the rest of the fall and winter!

 

[RU848789]

Another adjustment was made to the forecast: the showers are now expected to be mostly over right around kickoff or just after that, so tailgates are predicted to get maybe up to 1/4" of rain, but <0.1" of rain is now expected for the game, when the rain should not be heavy or continuous. This may sound like major changes, since we care passionately about +/- 1-2 hours, but in the grand scheme of forecasting, these are really minor tweaks. Could still be a little breezy for the game.

No real change in the forecast. Expect about 1/4" of rain for the tailgates and then expect about 0.1-0.2" of rain for the game, with steady rain (light to moderate, not a deluge) likely through the first half and spottier showers for the 2nd half. Temps near 50F and will be a little breezy with 10-15 mph winds.