What is the estimated year Rutgers will go 5 - 4 in the BIG?
- Thread starter kapyoche
- Start date
When I read the subject heading before opening the thread I immediately thought 2020. Hopefully, I am way off base, I mean some of our fans think we should beat Washington next year according to another thread on this board. I am sure by February there will be a good contingent of fans arguing rather rudely that we will win a minimum of 8-10 games next year. You can bank on it.
Listen I'm the 1st one who is all over our talent issues - which are real - but I'm going to post something in the next week or so that will touch on this topic. Bottom line is that we're not as far from some programs, as we are from others (but we are FAR behind those programs), so getting to the 5-4 type of season COULD be closer than we all think, however, it depends on getting at least 2 solid classes with the kids we need (especially O and ST's) along with the staff elevating their coaching level on game day. I mean we COULD have won 2 games (Iowa and Minny; too many TO's against Illinois which can happen with more talent as well...) this year despite all of our "issues" at the current time. Again I promise to lay out all my thoughts soon enough!
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I used my time machine and traveled to December 5th, 2020. I'm sorry to report Rutgers lost the B1G championship to the newest member of the Western Division, Oklahoma, 23-17.
The season started on a high note as a depleted RU squad held on to beat UCLA before 92,000 at the Rose Bowl. 5 starters were suspended for the 1st game for receiving improper benefits in the form of tickets to a concert by the newest pop sensation sweeping the nation, RutgersAl. His latest CD "Songs for Recruits" is currently #6 with a bullet. Rutgers easily dispatched a Les Miles led Temple team in the only other OOC.
The 10 game B1G schedule went kind of how it was projected pre season. Highlights were easy wins against OSU, PSU and the other new member, UNC, who only had 35 scholarships after the NCAA found out the Tar Heels were not only giving players fake classes but many had not even graduated middle school. NCAA prez Ivanka Trump tweeted "it was Hillary's fault".
The only blemish on the record was a 34-20 loss to up and coming Purdue team led by former Oregon coach Gary or Greg Schiano and a transfer QB from Tennessee who's name escaped me.
With Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, USF, and a PJ Fleck led Oregon State expected to comprise the 4 team playoff, Rutgers appears to be heading back to Rose Bowl against PAC 14 champion, Texas. Reaction by RU fans has been universal. They hate it.
It's nonsense of course but no more than any other prediction that far in the future.
The season started on a high note as a depleted RU squad held on to beat UCLA before 92,000 at the Rose Bowl. 5 starters were suspended for the 1st game for receiving improper benefits in the form of tickets to a concert by the newest pop sensation sweeping the nation, RutgersAl. His latest CD "Songs for Recruits" is currently #6 with a bullet. Rutgers easily dispatched a Les Miles led Temple team in the only other OOC.
The 10 game B1G schedule went kind of how it was projected pre season. Highlights were easy wins against OSU, PSU and the other new member, UNC, who only had 35 scholarships after the NCAA found out the Tar Heels were not only giving players fake classes but many had not even graduated middle school. NCAA prez Ivanka Trump tweeted "it was Hillary's fault".
The only blemish on the record was a 34-20 loss to up and coming Purdue team led by former Oregon coach Gary or Greg Schiano and a transfer QB from Tennessee who's name escaped me.
With Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, USF, and a PJ Fleck led Oregon State expected to comprise the 4 team playoff, Rutgers appears to be heading back to Rose Bowl against PAC 14 champion, Texas. Reaction by RU fans has been universal. They hate it.
It's nonsense of course but no more than any other prediction that far in the future.
Sad to think that we're trying so hard just to work ourselves back to qualify for bowl games we've already been to. As a big ten member we played in one of these bowls just 2 years ago. If it weren't for the defensive backfield being carted off to jail last year, we would have been in another bowl. Prior to that,we went bowling almost every year during the schistosomiasis era. Let's not lower the bar so drastically. If Indiana and Maryland can get to bowls this year, why can't we do it.
Sorry about the computer going nuts and putting schistosomiasis in for schiano. No malice intend.
2019
- Harbaugh and Meyer will each be 55 years old and should have better teams than RU.
- After another good season or 2 I think Franklin bolts for the NFL and PSU may take a step back where we can beat them. It will be a tough game in Happy Valley.
- Maryland (home) and Indiana (away) are at our level so are potential wins
- Iowa (away), Minny (home), and Illinois (away) are on the schedule as well. We probably can win 2 of those games.
- Dantonoio will be 63 at the time. He should still be at Mich St but if he continues the trend of this season we may be able to get a victory, especially in Piscataway.
- Harbaugh and Meyer will each be 55 years old and should have better teams than RU.
- After another good season or 2 I think Franklin bolts for the NFL and PSU may take a step back where we can beat them. It will be a tough game in Happy Valley.
- Maryland (home) and Indiana (away) are at our level so are potential wins
- Iowa (away), Minny (home), and Illinois (away) are on the schedule as well. We probably can win 2 of those games.
- Dantonoio will be 63 at the time. He should still be at Mich St but if he continues the trend of this season we may be able to get a victory, especially in Piscataway.
I agree with 2020 on a winning B1G record. And that is still a big if.
I think we could go bowling with a 6-6/7-5 type record in 2019 or possibly as early as 2018 depending on how things break.
I think we could go bowling with a 6-6/7-5 type record in 2019 or possibly as early as 2018 depending on how things break.
I don't see this happening before Ash's 3rd year, so 2018 is the earliest. I think 2019 is more probable. If it doesn't happen by 2020 (Ash's 5th year), then we have to seriously question whether it will happen at all under Ash.
If it doesn't happen by 2020 he should be fired.
But I don't see it taking that long.
We had a senior team this year and went winless in the BIG. Next two years we will have a young team so I see a winless BIG season in 2017, a 2-7 season in 2018, a 4-5 in 2019 and a 5-4 in 2020. If we can go 5 - 4 in 2020, then Ash is going pro like Schiano, perhaps to Tampa. They like Rutgers coaches who win.
A "senior team"? I mean...and correct me if I'm wrong:
DL - 2
LB - 0
DB - 1 of 1st 5
QB - 0
RB - 1 of 1st 3
WR - 3 of 3 once Grant was out, however, among worst WR units in the nation
TE - 1 of 2
OL - 3
P - 0
K - 0
...so on one side we lose a lot, BUT, does it really hurt us?
2017!
At llinois
Purdue
At Michigan
Maryland
At Indiana
If you don't like at Michigan than at PSU or mich state at home or at Nebraska
5-4 and 7-5. Boom
At llinois
Purdue
At Michigan
Maryland
At Indiana
If you don't like at Michigan than at PSU or mich state at home or at Nebraska
5-4 and 7-5. Boom
I'll bite
2017 ...see 2-7 and 4-8
2018....see 3-6 and 6-6
2019....see 4-5 and 6-6
2020....don't know the confrence schedule but a bunch we break through and go 5-4 and 8-4
2017 ...see 2-7 and 4-8
2018....see 3-6 and 6-6
2019....see 4-5 and 6-6
2020....don't know the confrence schedule but a bunch we break through and go 5-4 and 8-4
Not sure you understand the difficulty of the task in the next few years. We play Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State every year. If there are no coaching changes, that's four likely losses right there. In 2017, we play at Nebraska; in 2018, we're at Wisconsin; in 2019, we're at Iowa; and in 2020, we play Nebraska again. So, unless Ash starts reeling in top 20 recruiting classes, we've got about zero room for error to pull off a 5-4 conference record by 2020.
I don't understand threads like this at all. We can win 4 or 5 B1G games next year. Also contrary to what poster RUforLife said, no one, no one thinks that we should beat Washington next year.
should <> might, will <> can
should <> might, will <> can
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I don't know if you are OK with Rutgers having losing conference records indefinitely. If you are, then that's fine and you'd see no reason to fire a coach who has losing conference record indefinitely.
But assuming that you want winning conference records at some point, you are essentially correct that our coach would need to pull in high quality recruiting classes that can compete with OSU, Mich, Mich St, Penn St (and Wisc, Neb, Iowa, etc).
If Ash is to be that coach to bring in quality classes, how long does he get? If you think it is going to take beyond his fifth year to have a winning conference record, how do you see his recruiting classes improving after that. Right now he can recruit using the pitch that we're losing, but we're building a winning program. After five years, that pitch rings hollow. So how does he recruit if he has 5 losing conference seasons?
I don't agree with @Scarlet_Scourge that five years means automatic firing. There could be some extenuating circumstances, or there could be strong evidence that he needs a year or two more. But certainly if he posts 5 losing conference seasons, you'd have to have a hard look to see if he'd ever be able to recruit well enough to have regular winning seasons.
Predict they will scrap divisions in 2020 and have protected rivalry games. Also top 2 teams will go to the CCG.
I am not okay with having losing conference records indefinitely. That being said, I also realize we're in a stacked division of a stacked conference right now, and it's an uphill climb. Ash could end up being a fine coach and still not make up much headway for awhile, because we could have three top ten teams in our division each year. If we replaced him under those circumstances, how easy would it be to find someone to overcome those odds? Chances are, whoever we got might not be any better and could be a whole lot worse.
Unless you are waiting for other B1G programs to falter, we're in a stacked conference indefinitely. Our competition is who they are. We can't control who our conference opponents are. All we can control is our coaching and recruiting (and recruiting ultimately falls back on the coach).
I'm saying that 5 years is more than enough time to evaluate a coach. If he is not recruiting at the level to be competitive in our conference by year 5, I don't think he ever will be, because the recruiting gets harder as losing seasons build up. If you want to argue that it really takes 6 years because he's only building contacts in the first year, fine, then you can still make an evaluation in year 5 as to whether recruiting has improved and is on an upward trajectory.
But if you don't think 5 years is enough time to make an evaluation, then tell me what changes between now and year 7 or year 10 that would allow a coach to start to put together competitive recruiting classes. I think it will be hard for a coach to recruit if he has a half-decade of losing conference seasons. It will be even harder to recruit if he approaches a decade of losing conference seasons. Tell me why I'm wrong. Tell me what changes to allow a coach who has 5+ years of losing and sub-optimal recruiting to suddenly start to recruit at the top levels.
to put things in perspective:
Purdue has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 8 times but only once since 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Purdue_Boilermakers_football_seasons
Northwestern has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 8 times and twice since 2010.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northwestern_Wildcats_football_seasons
Illinois has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 3 times and once since 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Illinois_Fighting_Illini_football_seasons
Indiana has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 1 times and no times since 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indiana_Hoosiers_football_seasons
Purdue has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 8 times but only once since 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Purdue_Boilermakers_football_seasons
Northwestern has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 8 times and twice since 2010.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northwestern_Wildcats_football_seasons
Illinois has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 3 times and once since 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Illinois_Fighting_Illini_football_seasons
Indiana has been .500 or better in the B10 since 2000 1 times and no times since 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indiana_Hoosiers_football_seasons
And there is an argument that we shouldn't aspire to be anything more than Illinois or Indiana in football. Then we are satisfied with a winning season every 4-6 years on average. Then there is no pressure on the coaching staff to recruit at the highest levels. We schedule OOC cupcakes and 3-4 conference wins to get us to bowl games, and call that a successful season.
The question of when we have a winning conference season is really only meaningful if the goal is to compete at the top level and have frequent winning seasons.
I was just showing a few teams that have been in the conference a long time that have a similar football pedigree as us. They also have been playing a Big10 schedule all these years with the likes of Michigan, Ohio St, Penn St, Wisconsin, and recently Nebraska. If they are struggling with a full share of the B10 money to win more than every few years, we may be in a similar situation.
Yes, I am waiting for other programs to falter. Dantonio is 60 years old. Harbaugh has never stayed at any coaching job for more than a few years. Ohio State is probably Meyer's last stop, but he had stress issues at Florida and had to quit, so who knows? It's this cluster of coaches that's making the B1G East so tough right now. But the coaching landscape could change in five to ten years time. It's not just the recruiting. It's not like Ohio State and Michigan had trouble with recruiting before Meyer and Harbaugh showed up. These guys just know how to put a program together and win. If you went on a coaching search, who are you going to find to beat these guys? If Ash proves himself to be reasonably competent, I'd be fine with sticking with him and waiting it out rather than just making a change for the sake of making a change.
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