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Thiam avgs 15-17 pts/game
-Corey avgs 13-15 pts, 5-7 assists, 2 steals, less than 3 TOs/game
-Freeman avgs 8-9 pts, 7-8 rebounds/game
-Williams avgs 8-9 pts, 5-6 rebounds, 3-4 assists, 1-2 steals/game
-Omuyuri avgs 5-7 pts, 5-6 rebs/game
- Sa avgs 3-5 pts, 3-5 rebs/game
- Mensah 5-7 pts, 4-6 assists/game
- Baker 5-8 pts, 2 assts, 2 rebs
- Johnson 2-3 rebs, 2-4 pts
And strong team defense at or near last year with overall improved team free throws?
GO RU
To be realistic and fair, we have 33 total games last year but I consider 25 of those games "real".....that carves out 8 RAC games that were wins vs cupcakes or teams that RU should have defeated.
In those 25 "real" games, RU was 7-18.....what's really my own measurement was isolating the last 14 of the 25 games of the season, once the staff really removed a lot of things they wanted to run that weren't successful OR decided that the scouting by opponents took away a lot of options.
The key is there just isn't any possible way Thiam goes from 3 to 4 PPG to double digits in the games that are against B1G competition, Seton Hall, Florida State etc.
RU has to replace 28-29 minutes a game from their 2nd leading scorer in Nigel Johnson at 10PPG. The only current and likely guard on the roster capable of stepping in at 24-29 minutes a game and providing 10 PPG is Geo Baker....he's the most likely to be in the Top 3-4 in scoring based on the ability to shoot a 3 and being a solid FT shooter and since he's the 2nd likely ball handler on the team (Mike Williams and Souf are your other guards beyond Corey Sanders).....
I haven't carved out the PPG per player on the 25 games that matter most as a true measuring stick, but we were at 59 PPG if you remove the 8 cupcake games (all home wins) against teams RU in theory should win (that counts Hartford as a nailbiter)....in the other 5 games beyond the 20 B1G games, I counted @ Miami, @ Stony Brook, @ DePaul, @ Seton Hall and MSG vs Fordham.....
If you carve it down to the last 14 games, RU is at 62 PPG.....it sounds trivial but 59 to 62 PPG isn't much, but it's not impossible to ask to go from 62PPG to 66PPG in these games.
Three factors figure to get RU there beyond the obvious of improving FT shooting.
A) Freeman going from 11PPG all the way to 14 PPG....it's really as simple as Freeman taking 3 to 4 3 point attempts per game.....why??
Teams were playing way off Freeman because he's capable of driving to the basket against bigger players....some of those times he drove against faster and quicker players, he got his shot rejected OR got fouled/scored....
Hidden in these stats was Freeman making 4 out of 10 3's in RU's last 7 games...in most of those games he only had one attempt, but if teams are going to play soft on Freeman and he's available to shoot them, I would green-light Freeman to take at least 2 of these shots per half. If he takes 3 to 4 per game and shoots 30-33% from 3, that's 3 PPG added. I would spread these shot attempts out, vs relying solely on Sanders to generate offense most possessions.
B) How much/how little will the team improve from year one to year 2 defensively?? As much as we need to replace Nigel and CJ at 17-18 PPG, we need to replace their tenacity on defense/rebounding, but we should be better defensively with more footspeed up front...it will have to be a team effort, but I don't see a dropoff defensively....
C) X-Factor of 13th spot still open....Is it a PF/C being considered for the last available spot...????.....should we consider a combo guard or swingman that protects RU against relying on Sanders/Baker/Williams to score 30 PPG???
Sanders Nigel and Mike averaged 30PPG last year. Probably more likely that Thiam getting more minutes with no Laurent in his way, means more 3 point shooting from that position vs playing at times at SG last year. I can see Thiam adding another 3 PPG with no Laurent around and more minutes...
FT shooting by Sanders was well under 60% in B1G games....the reality is if Sanders can go from 55-56% in B1G games to 65%-67% as a FT shooter, RU can get to 66 or more per game.....Sanders improved FT shooting and another 3 pointer here or there from Freeman and it changes where RU goes quickly.
