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My thoughts on 2022, 2023, and beyond

The problem is that the transfer portal is a player's market when it comes to wings. If you can't get one of the very top guys available it's usually not worth it. You usually end with... well a guy like Aundre Hyatt.

Also, what is the incentive to transfer to Rutgers?
We lost Geo/RHJ with no readily available replacement - i.e. Spencer slides in.

This year:
Mulcahy: 32 mpg
Spencer: 31 mpg
Simpson: 19mpg

Assuming everyone returns, there are no minutes available.
If Mulcahy leaves, I would imagine HC Pike's 1st response would be to increase Simpson's minutes?

I can't imagine HC Pike cutting Spencer's minutes or not playing Simpson more (especially the way he's ending the year).
Unless HC Pike is willing to recruit over Simpson and Paul leaves - not sure what the incentives are going to be.


Is any high end transfer coming to Rutgers to come on the bench and provide depth?
 
If there isn't room for portal players next year, we are in deep trouble. He needs to recruit over everybody...if he can. Thats what winning coaches do.
 
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The problem is that the transfer portal is a player's market when it comes to wings. If you can't get one of the very top guys available it's usually not worth it. You usually end with... well a guy like Aundre Hyatt.
this is so true......

if you are a 2 guard who isnt a PG and don't have great size there is an oversupply of you....
if you are a 6'7'' wing or a 7'0'' big guy it is your market
 
Is any high end transfer coming to Rutgers to come on the bench and provide depth?
We may need 2 middle end transfers that are capable and willing to play 10-15 minutes.

That dorky uncoordinated player last night from NW got important minutes for them because he could hustle and defend. His arm could have been broken and we wouldn't have known it because he wasnt going to shoot.
 
You’re the guy who didn’t want to go after Marcus Carr saying he gives RU nothing and roll with Paul/Simpson.

Carr having a career year btw
I don't like Marcus Carr at all, he chucks up a lot of shots and he's a 5th year guard at his 3rd stop. He is not a team 1st guy.

I would not have taken Carr 2 years ago over 1 year of Geo Baker or 2-3 years of Mulcahy, Caleb or Simpson. I don't think it was unreasonable to ask Paul Mulcahy to go from 8.5 to 9PPG, to 11 or 12PPG, without RHJ and Geo Baker. I think approaching these final 8 games is not something anyone saw happening.

Do I think RU is better off at 18-13 or what probably should be 19-12 if not for the Ohio State debacle and Simpson playing 19 MPG and in position for 26 to 28 next year?? I wouldn't trade Simpsons experience and growth this year for a grad transfer with 1 year left. Same applies for Cam Spencer, this team and roster next year without Spencer, has huge holes to fill if you're looking at the big picture. Even as limited as Spencer is, he is not blocking Simpsons development and I get Spencer for 2023-24.
 
If a pg in the portal doesn't think he can start over what we have, then they have NO confidence. Wuts Posh Alexander doing next year?

It goes both way though.
I just keep thinking of the infamous "Hyatt was the only transfer candidate who didn't ask about minutes or shots" report. I think how HC Pike handles the roster this offseason will speak alot of the the program's mentality going forward - are we going all in to take the next step and look to bring in transfer and "give the talk" to more players.
Remember - it was highly lauded how nobody transferred out last year.
 
Awesome write up OP

Pretty good takes in this thread except for Paul transferring, Mag taking the entire next season off which LOL ridiculous, and Hawk still trying to say Mag isn't a B1G level player which is again LOL ridiculous
FWIW - I don't think Paul will transfer, I think he's just done playing college basketball
 
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Keep in mind we have NIL now to help attract portal guys here.
 
Keep in mind we have NIL now to help attract portal guys here.
AND a trip to Africa/Europe this summer where players in the US on Student Visas could get some NIL money that they could not get in the US.
Is there a future Tony Parker playing at a mid-major with a year or two of eligibility left looking for an upgrade?
 
From a cursory look over (aka a quick Bart Torvik search) there aren't a ton of obvious local high performing mid-major guards. No one like Wynter or Lofton. Transfer recruiting is a national game though so we'll see.

Prediction: RayJ Dennis from Toledo is one of the hottest names that'll become available and he'll end up at a blue blood or other elite team.
 
Great write up and discussion here. Two thoughts that come to me reading through this:

1) There is nothing in Pike's history, or anything that I have heard him say ever, that makes me think that there will be a large turnover in the roster. The idea of 3 or 4 players, let alone 5 transferring out seems very unlikely. This is especially true for Paul who is clearly Pike's guy and an RU ambassador. We are already one over on the scholarship count (if cliff stays) so there will have to be some transfers. I would think Miller and either Palm or Reiber leave but thats it.

2) Freshman usually improve and sometimes by a large leap. I think this happens more with bigs then guards but there are examples of both. If Cliff leaves, I would not be surprised to see Woolfolk develop into Myles 2.0 by Jan 2024. Simpson will be a better player next year too. His lack of playmaking this year does not convince me that he wont develop it in the future.
 
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One thing that I ask when we think about the future ... Have expectations but realize things may just not go the way you expect them and that's just how life works ... Let's avoid having to go thru next season with folks talking about firing Pike or saying some offensive shit to the players. Criticism is always warranted and should be openly discussed ... But there's that gray area (because of our individual ideologies) between criticism and just straight up hate that we need to minimize.

Excited for the future and we (alum, fans, staff, and students) all rep that R proudly!
 
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Pikell has loyalty but no way he can trot out Mulcahy as the starting point guard next year. I understand he’s hurt but the last stretch of games has been tough to watch
 
I don't like Marcus Carr at all, he chucks up a lot of shots and he's a 5th year guard at his 3rd stop. He is not a team 1st guy.

I would not have taken Carr 2 years ago over 1 year of Geo Baker or 2-3 years of Mulcahy, Caleb or Simpson. I don't think it was unreasonable to ask Paul Mulcahy to go from 8.5 to 9PPG, to 11 or 12PPG, without RHJ and Geo Baker. I think approaching these final 8 games is not something anyone saw happening.

Do I think RU is better off at 18-13 or what probably should be 19-12 if not for the Ohio State debacle and Simpson playing 19 MPG and in position for 26 to 28 next year?? I wouldn't trade Simpsons experience and growth this year for a grad transfer with 1 year left. Same applies for Cam Spencer, this team and roster next year without Spencer, has huge holes to fill if you're looking at the big picture. Even as limited as Spencer is, he is not blocking Simpsons development and I get Spencer for 2023-24.
I am with Hawk on Carr. When pressured like we used to do to him his first 3 years he folded and shot like in our games 3-14. He was a chunker and not clutch. He has gotten better at Texas but his supporting cast is a lot better. Could he run our offense and get 10/14 a night , sure.

But someone on our team named Paul could have done that too but has fallen off the Cliff these last 8 games and has actually hurt us. Did not see that coming from a senior and the BIG 10’s leading assist guy. It is almost unfathomiable he has gotten worse as a senior as normally players get a little better every year.
 
Whoever we get at point guard isn't going to be a perfect player but the idea is to bring someone in who can do things the rest of the roster can't. We need someone who can get in the lane and make a defense move. There's going to be a trade-off with that. Maybe it's outside shooting, maybe it's defense.
 
AND a trip to Africa/Europe this summer where players in the US on Student Visas could get some NIL money that they could not get in the US.
Is there a future Tony Parker playing at a mid-major with a year or two of eligibility left looking for an upgrade?
Not supposed to say that word here for a while...
 
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If we lose On Thursday you will know the extent of Paul’s injury at 2:30PM

I agree. aside from turning into a bit of a head case (or maybe related to it?) I have no doubt that Pauls had some lingering injuries.

regarding Paul - I also think its time to move on from him as point guard. but if he does stay AND we get a quality point guard (not Simpson) - I wonder if there is some new role he could play. For example - kind of a point forward type position where he sets up at the top of the key and distributes or shots/ drives when the opportunity is presented. under this scenario there is a quicker / more traditional point guard running it but Paul is out there as a second guy who can distribute. crazy thought?
 
I follow NBA draft rankings very closely and I haven't seen Cliff's name on a single mock draft in months even at the end of the 2nd round. If he declares for the draft he is heading straight to the G-League. By contrast at this point last year Ron's name was popping up in a bunch of mock drafts and although he didn't end up getting drafted he was a priority free agent that was signed to a Two-Way deal within a hour of the end of the draft. That's not happening with Cliff. If he isn't on Rutgers next year it probably means he transfered to another school unless he got really bad advice
 
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I agree. aside from turning into a bit of a head case (or maybe related to it?) I have no doubt that Pauls had some lingering injuries.

regarding Paul - I also think its time to move on from him as point guard. but if he does stay AND we get a quality point guard (not Simpson) - I wonder if there is some new role he could play. For example - kind of a point forward type position where he sets up at the top of the key and distributes or shots/ drives when the opportunity is presented. under this scenario there is a quicker / more traditional point guard running it but Paul is out there as a second guy who can distribute. crazy thought?
Connor McCaffrey... Connor McCaffrey... Connor McCaffrey...
 
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Everyone else is making a thread so why not? I've specifically steered away from the kneejerk game to game reactions mainly for my own sanity but now that the season is basically over I might as well get my thoughts down.

I think the team is clearly beat up, significantly worse than the normal wear-and-tear of a regular season. Mag is out, obviously. McConnell, fairly obviously, is nowhere close to 100%. Remember how awkward he looked coming back from the knee injury? And then he played 33 minutes a game. I'm certain that was an issue all season long and that's before we get to his back. For Mulcahy, I'll be shocked if 72 hours pass from the end of the season without a "Paul was playing with a significant shoulder injury" announcement. Labrum, rotator cuff... something. And I wouldn't be surprised if something also came out about Cliff, though his is closer to normal wear and tear. So with that context here's my rundown of the roster.

Group 1 - The Core

Paul Mulcahy
- Would love for him to come back next year but it can't be as the main point guard. That's just not working and will not magically start working in Year 5. He needs to be a glue guy on the wing akin to Connor McCaffrey's role on Iowa. Connor has the luxury of not needing to put up shots for Iowa's offense to work. It's on Pikiell to bring in the right players so that the offense is not dependent on Mulcahy but rather is enhanced by what he can do.

Cliff Omoruyi - Really hope he comes back too. He hasn't progressed the way we all hoped but a big man can only do so much without the threat of anyone else getting into the paint and scoring. He was so good last year because Geo and Ron could both make things happen inside the arc and draw help defenders to free him up. It's also not correct to say he didn't get better at all. His rebounding numbers and block rate were both up.

Cam Spencer - A home run in the transfer portal. Anyone hoping for more than what he gave us is delusional. No, he's not going to carry an offense but a guy shooting 43% on 4.5 threes a game is what we've been missing forever. The goal next year should be to open things up for him to get 5+ attempts a game. He gets what he can out of his limited athleticism on defense. Absolutely thrilled with him. Just please knock off the 17 foot fadeaway next season.

Mawot Mag - It's not really shocking the season took such a turn when our only two-way player went down. Everyone else on the roster is way better on one side of the ball or the other and it made us too easy to scout and exploit. He was blossoming on both sides of the ball and we need him healthy.

I think this group is a solid starting base for a tournament team. You've got shooting in Spencer (and Mulcahy isn't a bad shooter, just very low volume). You've got passing in Mulcahy. You've got a big man in Cliff. You've got defense in Mag. All four are a good size for their position and they'll all have multiple years in Pikiell's system. Certainly pieces will need to be added and we'll get to that.

Group 2 - The Freshmen

Derek Simpson
- I admit I got a bit suckered into the Geo comparison. But when I watched Geo play in the exhibition against St. John's before his freshman year even began, I tweeted the following: "Geo Baker is already the best passer Rutgers basketball has had in years." Admittedly it was a low bar coming off the Eddie Jordan era but it was clear that the way he saw the court and got the right spot to make a pass was going to make the team better. I saw that in game 1 with Geo. I didn't see that all year with Simpson. That's not to say he can't be a positive contributor to the team but anyone talking about Simpson as a point guard is not worth taking seriously. He did not show the playmaking or distributing attributes necessary. At best he's a combo guard but he's got to shore those things up.

Now he did show some promise. He can drive both ways, but he's got to tighten up his handle. He's got enough quickness, but he's got to stronger with his finishes. His shooting form isn't bad but obviously 10 for 48 is unacceptable from a guard. I'm not saying he can't or won't get better... Wade Taylor on Texas A&M shot 39% on twos and 28% on threes as a freshman and now as a sophomore he's first team All SEC. (Simpson shot 42% and 21% for reference, but on a lower volume. A&M handed Taylor the keys from day 1). Simpson isn't going to morph into Wade Taylor as a sophomore, but he's also not going to be the same player we saw as a freshman. We'll circle back to this uncertainty.

Antwone Woolfolk - Wasn't ready for Big Ten minutes.

Antonio Chol - Wasn't even ready for NEC minutes.

There's some potential here but anybody penciling in average Big Ten level play from these three is wishcasting. If they get there next season it will be a pleasant surprise (or in Chol's case a total shock). If you were talking with a fan of any other Big Ten team about their roster for next year and they were writing in someone with Simpson's stats (and lack of recruiting pedigree) as a starter for 2023-24 your reaction would be: yeah, good luck with that. His numbers are close to Kanye Clary (Penn State) and Joshua Ola-Joseph (Minnesota)... ask yourself if you're expecting big things from those two next year.

Group 3 - Thanks

Aundre Hyatt
- Somebody had to take shots on this team so I do appreciate that Hyatt was at least a willing shooter. Unfortunately we're talking about a guy who is now a 28.5% three point shooter on 274 attempts. You know how many high major players attempted at least 140 three pointers and shot a worse percentage than Hyatt? Just two. The ideal version of Hyatt never materialized and it's not going to pop up in his 6th year of college. When our big four game run happened last season he played 31 minutes total. Playing him 31 minutes a night is way too big an ask. Rooting for you wherever you end up.

Jalen Miller - Thanks for the defensive energy last season -- it was sorely needed. Rooting for you in the CAA.

Oskar Palmquist - Thanks for the offense against Wisconsin and Penn State. Rooting for you in the MAAC.... maybe.

Dean Reiber - Thanks for the lift against Penn State last year when Cliff picked up the early fouls. Rooting for you in C-USA... maybe

I suspect Hyatt is going to the controversial one here. He's obviously a more capable high-major player than the other ones listed. But like I said off the top in order for Rutgers to get better, Mulcahy has to find a different role. And Mag is getting major wing minutes. And we're going to need to get Gavin Griffiths in there. That leaves Hyatt as the odd man out.

So What Does 2023-24 Look Like?
Let's say the roster breaks down like that. Seven returnees plus three incoming freshmen leaves two scholarships available (I do not expect Pikiell to start using the 13th scholarship on a real body... it will be saved for a walk-on).

In that case priority 1, 2, and 3 is finding a point guard in the portal. No messing around. We cannot rely on the enigmatic or uncertain combination of Paul Mulcahy, Derek Simpson, and JaMichael Davis. If Pikiell had landed Kyle Lofton or been able to get Sam Sessoms here (grades may have been an issue) we'd be safely in the field. I wanted Cam Wynter... the guy who just made back to back game winners for Penn State. I don't want to hear that guys don't want to come here because we have Mulcahy and Simpson when Penn State got Wynter to come and play with Jalen Pickett.

I'm picturing a starting lineup of:
Transfer PG
Mulcahy
Griffiths
Mag
Omoruyi

And a bench of Simpson, Spencer, Davis, Ndongo, Woolfolk. I do write in Davis and Ndongo with the assumption that they're at or ahead of where Simpson and Woolfolk were this year. Ndongo is a top 150 guy and Davis has been playing with and against elite players (like Ace Bailey) unlike Simpson who was playing against South Jersey public schoolers. Between the four of them we should have two players able to give capable rotation minutes.

So that gets us to 10. Chol is 11... I'm not really expecting anything out of him. He's incredibly raw and 2023-24 would be his true freshman season if not for the late reclassification. Anything we get from him is gravy. And one scholarship will go to a walk-on. Do we get another transfer...?

This is where I come back to Reiber and Palmquist. I think one will be back. Pikiell likes them and they know the system. We need frontcourt depth especially early on as Mag is coming back from the injury. We know Pikiell values chemistry and it's going to be a lot easier to send one of those guys to the bench once Mag is back as opposed to a transfer who might be unhappy with it. (Or Hyatt, to whom that would also apply I think)

The way this doesn't happen is if Pikiell lands a big fish 4 in the portal and then uses Mag as the ultimate versatile 6th man. This would be a terrific outcome but the portal tends to be very guard heavy and the 4s and 5s tend to outkick their coverage, so to speak. See: Pete Nance ending up at UNC. If he goes this route it has to be a slam dunk that the guy is an upgrade... like whoever this year's version of Matthew Mayer is in the portal.

I give this a low probability. So if Mag is out to start the year we could go small with Spencer in there, or play Palmquist. Will that lineup get destroyed on the boards? Probably, but you'd at least like to think there would be a lot more made shots than the usual Rutgers lineup and thus fewer rebounds to try and grab anyway.

Been typing too long and don't have a good way to end this but I'll probably just spam this thread with my random thoughts and transfer portal targets as we go.

Nice post and well thought out. Agree with most of it.
 
I agree. aside from turning into a bit of a head case (or maybe related to it?) I have no doubt that Pauls had some lingering injuries.

regarding Paul - I also think its time to move on from him as point guard. but if he does stay AND we get a quality point guard (not Simpson) - I wonder if there is some new role he could play. For example - kind of a point forward type position where he sets up at the top of the key and distributes or shots/ drives when the opportunity is presented. under this scenario there is a quicker / more traditional point guard running it but Paul is out there as a second guy who can distribute. crazy thought?
We’re you saying this a month ago?
 
Basically. He can bring it up and start the offense but he isn't leaned on as a scorer or primary creator.
He's their leader in assists but only 3.8. Their offense is so different from ours it's hard to imagine that comparison. He'll be holding the ball and all 4 other guys will be cutting and screening.
 
He'll be holding the ball and all 4 other guys will be cutting and screening.

I think Paul - when he was playing more like Paul - could be really good in that role. He is a good passer and has good vision (well at least he used to). just cant drive and dish like a traditional PG. but he has skills that can be utilized.
 
I think Paul - when he was playing more like Paul - could be really good in that role. He is a good passer and has good vision (well at least he used to). just cant drive and dish like a traditional PG. but he has skills that can be utilized.
Part of Connor McCaffery's value in that role is that he can and will shoot the open 3, so guys have to guard him
McCaffery also turns the ball over about half as much as Paul while playing at a much greater pace.
I see your point though - IF Pike could get guys moving like that it would be fun to watch.
 
Good thread.
a few thoughts
simpson can develop to be a very good 3rd guard, first off bench. Energy
hope Paul and Cliff come back. Paul can thrive as a Swiss army role, not just PG
vets also allow the young guys time to develop over the season Ike keeping us competitive. Next season is a bit of changing of guard
need a PG transfer just as Maryland has one from Charlotte. Drive, create for self and others. Helps prevent long scoring droughts
mag may need most of next season to get back to where he was when he got injured. Need to temper immediate expectations
 
If we lose On Thursday you will know the extent of Paul’s injury at 2:30PM
None of us know (or can say) to what extent Paul’s shoulder injury affected his play which may have been a factor beyond the physical limitations. If he played injured, some will question why wasn’t he shut down or had his minutes limited. Perhaps because he was still our best option due to the lack of depth.
But regardless, I agree we need an athletic explosive point guard who can break down defenses with Paul playing a different role.
 
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