OT: Independence Day Weather Watch

[KingHigh]

A rare summer weather thread!

Since most of us are planning their 4th of July celebrations around outdoor activity, I was hoping the weather bugs here would track the weather for that day. Right now weather channel is showing a 50% chance of showers in central NJ and nicer weather on Sunday.

 

[bac2therac]

A rare summer weather thread!

Since most of us are planning their 4th of July celebrations around outdoor activity, I was hoping the weather bugs here would track the weather for that day. Right now weather channel is showing a 50% chance of showers in central NJ and nicer weather on Sunday.

its too early to pinpoint.....unfortunately we have been stuck in a pattern for a while of fronts setting up shop or continuous frontal passages. Not a good way to begin summer. This week offers more shower chances late day with more frontal passages. There is some indication that we could see a really nice weekend or a weekend with just a shower chance on the 4th but nothing to cancel plans over.. Right now there is nothing showing an all day soaker event like last Saturday

 

[Piscataway]

Frontal passages, hehe.

 

[RU848789]

Like bac said, hard to pinpoint, this far in advance, the exact weather in a pattern like this with fronts coming through that can provide a focus for shower activity. Having said that, as of now, Friday looks to have the greatest chance of showers, while the 4th looks nice, with just a slight chance of a brief shower later in the day (but more likely dry) and Sunday looks nice from afar. Temps look seasonable. NWS discussion provides a good summary...

THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED SYSTEM WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND FOR THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOURTH BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES NOT
SUGGEST MORE THAN A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. IF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HOLDS, SUNDAY SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[bac2therac]

still not nailed down yet. Thinking that its a decent day, party sunny low 80s with a chance of a late shower. There is only one model (the Canadian) that brings a low to the area like last weekend making it a washout but all the other models do not have this, so that's why there cant be complete confidence yet. Greater confidence that Sunday is going to be a very pleasant and dry day.

 

[KingHigh]

According to weather.com the Saturday forecast has improved greatly with the chance of rain falling to 10% and generally mostly sunny. Trending in the right direction.

 

[RU848789]

Looking very good for Friday through Sunday, with a slight chance of lingering showers Friday morning, especially near the coast, and a slight chance of a brief pop-up shower on the 4th in the afternoon/evening, but much more likely to be completely dry. Sunday looks like a lock to be dry. Seasonable temps, generally. Great summer weather. No reason to not make outdoor plans - even a stray shower shouldn't affect anything, unless maybe you're wearing sueded and, c'mon, you deserve it if you're wearing suede in the summer, lol.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND LOWER DELMARVA REGION. THE PRECIP FIELDS ON
THE GFS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE THEN THE MOST RECENT EC...BUT WE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS FOR THE SRN REGION ATTM. THE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
INTO FRI MORNING...WHICH WE WILL KEEP FOR NOW...BUT THE MODELS MAY
BE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE
FRI MORNING SHOWERS MAY BE REMOVED IN UPCOMING FCSTS.

OVERALL...THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA. POPS WOULD ONLY BE IN THE CHC RANGE
AT BEST...A FEW MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING SOUTH. A MOSTLY DRY FCST
SUN INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...AT THIS WARMEST PART OF THE
YEAR. MAXS WILL BE MID 80S SOUTH/EAST TO LOW 80S NORTH/WEST.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RUforJERSEY]

Not looking great in the Southeast. Storms yesterday, some already today with more expected and 30-40% for Friday and Saturday the last I heard.

 

[KingHigh]

Now it is up to 60 percent chance of rain. Did Isis buy the weather channel?

 

[RU4Real]

Now it is up to 60 percent chance of rain. Did Isis buy the weather channel?

Mt. Holly says 30%. Don't watch The Weather Channel.

I don't see why it matters. I've checked my inbox several times and the lack of invitations tells me that you don't have any plans.

 

[bac2therac]

Its going going to be cloudy and shower..move your plans to sunday

 

[RU848789]

Yep, big shift in last night's model runs. Looks like there will be showers, now, throughout much of the day, especially from I-95 and points S/E of there. Not big storms and downpours, but light to moderate occasional showers (maybe 1/4" of rain overall). The only silver lining is that it's likely that measurable rain is over by 6-7 pm, such that the evening will be dry in many places, so at least we have a good shot at salvaging the fireworks.

At the end of a long paragraph of model discussion, you hate to see this comment from the NWS forecaster: AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[bac2therac]

most models today were less bullish on the rain qpf....in fact it might be over and drying out by early afternoon

 

[RU848789]

most models today were less bullish on the rain qpf....in fact it might be over and drying out by early afternoon

slightly less bullish...still calling for 1/4-1/2" of rain for most locations from the morning through late afternoon...but the trend is for a drier evening for fireworks...

 

[bac2therac]

Per the weenie board some models were very dry

 

[Blitz8RUCrazy]

 

[KingHigh]

Per the weenie board some models were very dry

Weather channel just did a 180...now chance of rain down to 20%.

 

[bac2therac]

confidence is very low....I know RU#s disagrees but I find the model flip flopping and them being wrong so many times lately pretty pathetic in this day and age with all the money ivnested

 

[RU848789]

Showers in the area this morning, mostly N/W of I-95 (opposite of what was expected), although they look to be heading towards the coast. Rainfall forecasts were lowered a fair amount though, with most places getting 0.1" or less, which is nowhere near a washout. Decent possibility that the late afternoon and evening will be mostly to completely dry, especially N/W of I-95 - fireworks are very unlikely to be impacted. Enjoy your 4th, everyone...