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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

It won't be Toyota and they won't be for EVs. Guys, seriously , it's not happening. Decades of hype and no one is remotely close to volume production. It's the nuclear fusion of batteries.

Auto makers have learned their lesson with the 6 figure EVs (cough, cough...Lucid) Costs need to come down, not up, and all signs are pointing to exactly that. LFP batteries (iron cathode) are the future. Cheap & high production volume. LFPs represent the core competency of the world's largest battery suppliers and they're actively growing supply.

Electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs) are the only applications that we might see solid state batteries this decade. Small unit #s, very high cost, toys for the ultra wealthy , but even that is a stretch IMO.
Cough cough Cybertruck? Cheap and high production EV 😀. I think solid state battery will be here before Robotaxi
 

Ford Motor is delaying production of a new all-electric three row SUV, as it shifts to offer hybrid options across its entire North American lineup by 2030.

The Detroit automaker on Thursday said it will continue to invest in EVs, but it is postponing production of the large SUV at a plant in Canada from 2025 to 2027 to allow for the market to mature more.

The shift in EV plans is the latest for Ford and the entire automotive industry as adoption has been slower than many expected and production costs remain high.

Ford last year said it would delay or cancel $12 billion in planned spending on new EVs due to the shifting market conditions as well as challenges to profitably building and selling the vehicles.
 
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Have to say TSLA stock took that delivery number in stride. Granted its way off ATH and even 52 week highs, but I thought that could be a further catalyst to the downside.
 
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Have to say TSLA stoke took that delivery number in stride. Granted its way off ATH and even 52 week highs, but I thought that could be a further catalyst to the downside.
I think there's some support here in the 160s-ish area. I think earnings on April 23 is what will determine if it holds and rebounds or continues its slide further down.
 
Some news on a category I'm particularly fond of...dividend stocks.

CAG had good earnings this morning and gapped up above its 200DMA. Up 5% but I think it's approaching some resistance. If it can hold and breakthrough, might be able to get a 10-15% higher to the mid 30s. Don't have a position in this.

VZ has quietly had a nice run these last handful of months. This one I do have a position in and its about where I started the position and bought the sucker at various support levels as it went down. I think it's approaching resistance in this area to maybe mid 40s. I'll probably sell some of my highest priced shares in this vicinity. It's had quite a bit of momentum and somewhat overbought on a short term chart.
 
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Have to say TSLA stoke took that delivery number in stride. Granted its way off ATH and even 52 week highs, but I thought that could be a further catalyst to the downside.
One Q doesn’t tell the story. Now if they miss again in Q2, look out below.
 
Had a Bob Iger interview on in the background, I didn't realize he's been with DIS for 50 years. The company is 100 years old, Damn lol. After figuring out DTC/ESPN, succession is the next most important thing imo.
 
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Have to say TSLA stoke took that delivery number in stride. Granted its way off ATH and even 52 week highs, but I thought that could be a further catalyst to the downside.

Morgan Stanley cuts TSLA target, remains positive

In response to Tesla’s weak Q1 deliveries report, Morgan Stanley analysts reduced their target price on the stock to $310 from $320.

“Tesla’s weak 1Q update is a clear sign of the ongoing EV ‘shakeout’ phase,” analysts noted.
However, the Wall Street behemoth maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla stock, highlighting the company’s “significant attributes to be valued as an AI beneficiary.”

Still, they note that the company first needs to address and stabilize the current trend of negative earnings revisions within its automotive segment.

“We do not believe Tesla will get credit as an AI company as long as core auto earnings are being revised down. This process may take a few more quarters to see through, over which time our $100 bear case may be ‘in play’,” said Morgan Stanley’s team.

 

Morgan Stanley cuts TSLA target, remains positive

In response to Tesla’s weak Q1 deliveries report, Morgan Stanley analysts reduced their target price on the stock to $310 from $320.

“Tesla’s weak 1Q update is a clear sign of the ongoing EV ‘shakeout’ phase,” analysts noted.
However, the Wall Street behemoth maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla stock, highlighting the company’s “significant attributes to be valued as an AI beneficiary.”

Still, they note that the company first needs to address and stabilize the current trend of negative earnings revisions within its automotive segment.

“We do not believe Tesla will get credit as an AI company as long as core auto earnings are being revised down. This process may take a few more quarters to see through, over which time our $100 bear case may be ‘in play’,” said Morgan Stanley’s team.

I do wonder when TSLA will really be able to monetize AI. I don’t think FSD moves the needle much in terms of revs and eps for retail sales.

Imo The real AI driver for tsla is robotaxi, and how many years out are we on that?
 
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GE and GEV have a been trading a little erratically since the spinoff, some solid moves and reversals intraday. GE seems to have stabilized on gone back on its tear the last couple days. GEV had a pop then drop and mostly muted to a little negative since.

I kind of wonder if some shareholders are selling off GEV and adding onto GE, especially retail.

I said above 190s-low 200s would be a spot I'd look to sell off some of my highest priced shares. Reverse engineering the spinoff, it's in the low end of that range now.

I think for GE now it's about 150s-160s area and today it's just come into that range. I'll likely sell about 1/4 of what I still hold and the highest price shares.

Somewhere in the future, I'll probably sell off 1/2 of the GEV shares I got in the spinoff but not yet. Would like to see how that stock settles. I wonder if it can somewhat replicate the move GEHC had after the spinoff.

Edit: here we go again GEV down 6% intraday out of nowhere.
 
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Had a Bob Iger interview on in the background, I didn't realize he's been with DIS for 50 years. The company is 100 years old, Damn lol. After figuring out DTC/ESPN, succession is the next most important thing imo.
Technically, not 50 years. Iger was at ABC for a long time prior to Disney buying ABC.
 
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Clif High predicted a stock market fall -at a minimum-in April.
So far,it's down over 1200 points.
His best economic call was in late 2012 when Bitcoin was at $10.
He said that it would reach 1,000 in one year.
He was wrong.
It hit 1,100.
I didn't listen.
Story of my life.
 
Clif High predicted a stock market fall -at a minimum-in April.
So far,it's down over 1200 points.
His best economic call was in late 2012 when Bitcoin was at $10.
He said that it would reach 1,000 in one year.
He was wrong.
It hit 1,100.
I didn't listen.
Story of my life.
1200 points? Uh? The market was near ATHs this morning. LOL.
 
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Ford Motor is delaying production of a new all-electric three row SUV, as it shifts to offer hybrid options across its entire North American lineup by 2030.

The Detroit automaker on Thursday said it will continue to invest in EVs, but it is postponing production of the large SUV at a plant in Canada from 2025 to 2027 to allow for the market to mature more.

The shift in EV plans is the latest for Ford and the entire automotive industry as adoption has been slower than many expected and production costs remain high.

Ford last year said it would delay or cancel $12 billion in planned spending on new EVs due to the shifting market conditions as well as challenges to profitably building and selling the vehicles.
smart move
first step to turn away from this insanity
 
the markets are due for a correction however, anyone denying this isn't paying attention to many indicators

problem is, there are far too many hands manipulating the mkts for them to function as they should
 
the markets are due for a correction however, anyone denying this isn't paying attention to many indicators

problem is, there are far too many hands manipulating the mkts for them to function as they should
March CPI will likely come in light next week and the market will rally to 5400'ish. Look for a temporary 4-6% dip afterwards.
 
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I was fortunate enough to open another 457B and wanted your opinions on which Asset Classes i should split my funds into. After some research i'm thinking about 50% funds in large cap growth and large cap value blend. Any advice would be appreciated.
 
I was fortunate enough to open another 457B and wanted your opinions on which Asset Classes i should split my funds into. After some research i'm thinking about 50% funds in large cap growth and large cap value blend. Any advice would be appreciated.
What options do you have? Are they limited like a 401k or open to anything like an IRA?
 
Dan Ives - Biggest AI application/user winners will be PLTR and MongoDB (along with GOOGL and MSFT).
 
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INTC down 7.5% on the 7B loss news. Was also brought up at halftime and Josh Brown brought up 38 as a support level. Looking at the chart, I see that as well.

I've been thinking about INTC as very long term play because of the foundries and the importantce of domestic production of chips. It feels like a "dead money until it isn't" kind of thing in my mind. They say they expect losses to peak midway through 2024 and then break even midway between now and 2030. Management seems mediocre to me so can they execute and hit their projections.

I feel like it can be an accumulation stock for a payoff in the 2030s which is obviously a while away. It's just a matter of where and when to step in and then kind of write it off until the hopefully a payoff way down the line. Somewhat similar to GE but I liked Culp, I'm indifferent about Gelsinger. INTC for quite some time has been a company that's one step forward and one or two steps backs and I can't say I've seen any change in that MO.
INTC has broken the 200DMA and trading just above 38 currently. A close below would skew negative. Also this morning saw Cramer mention a Bernstein report where the analyst harpooned Gelsinger. I was kind of indifferent to him and didn't think too much of him but gives me the impression of Immelt, which isn't a good thing....talk big but don't execute. I like under promise over deliver not the other way around. Mind you I did see the same analyst back in 2021 say Gelsinger was the right man for the job. So it's good to know what analysts say and they can move stocks but they also need to be taken with grains of salt.

I think my assumption of dead money is right and maybe it takes a 2 handle to assume that "risk" of dead money if it got that low. They need to find their Lisa Su/Satya Nadella but they go through CEOs and not much changes in terms of MO.

 
Dan Ives - Biggest AI application/user winners will be PLTR and MongoDB (along with GOOGL and MSFT).
Outside my typical conservative Joe Retail safe havens of big tech (MSFT specifically) for AI, I like ARM but it blew up while I was waffling on it so never got a chance on it. I'll see if there's any magnet for its gap to close any time in the future lol. PLTR has a gap that could take it back to 200DMA as well but gaps don't always have to close.
 
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Cough cough Cybertruck? Cheap and high production EV 😀. I think solid state battery will be here before Robotaxi
Your streak of being wrong on most things EV will remain intact.

CT will be both high production and profitable. Context matters. My comment was to the broader EV market where everyone is struggling with both.
 
Sorry but i'm not familiar with this IBIT as of now i've been using American Funds 2035 Target Date R6
That target date fund is very conservative. Unless you are very, very close to retirement, you should focus on stocks.

I would suggest the following - for a simple portfolio:
40% - S&P 500 index (or Russell 1000)
30% - Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth - VONG - is the best)
20% - Large Cap Value (VTV or VONV)
10% - Mid/Small Caps (I would try to do something besides the Russell 2000.....either VB or an S&P 600 Index).

If you are not interested with small caps, I would go with:
40% - S&P 500 index (or Russell 1000)
35% - Large Cap Growth
25% - Large Cap Value

The key is to have a growth lean since this covers tech and other innovative companies.
 
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