Looking at the final six regular conference games from the perspective of PF/PA (points-for : points-against ratio):
MICH PF/PA: Overall 1,26 Away 1,19 B1G 1,23
@OSU PF/PA: Overall 1,19 Home 1,25 B1G 1,09
MD PF/PA: Overall 1,37 Away 1,20 B1G 1,23
@WIS PF/PA: Overall 0,93 Home 1,00 B1G 0,83
IOWA PF/PA: Overall 1,15 Away 1,05 B1G 0,99
@NW PF/PA: Overall 0,96 Home 1,00 B1G 0,87
RU PF/PA: OA 1,16 H 1,34 A 1,01 B1G 1,01
No surprise to anyone that teams perform better at home. Michigan had the smallest drop from overall to B1G, reflecting the improved play and consistency as they progressed through the season. RU plays really well at the RAC (best home record in conference), so not a surprise RU beat Michigan, even though Michigan has fared much better against the B1G so far. It was a good win and will give the Scarlet Knights confidence against the Buckeyes. We must win at Wisconsin and Northwestern, but looking at PF/PA, each game is a toss-up. RU has not played well on the road.
That leaves OSU, Maryland, and IOWA. Predictors give a solid win for OSU, but I have a sense that they are vulnerable to tough D and don´t seem to play much defense. Further, RU and OSU are not far apart in overall and B1G PF/PA. Predictors split on the MD game. The Terapins just score so many points and can play defense if they have to, I think. Even though GAMER predicts a win for RU, my gut says RU is more likely to win on the road at OSU (as incongruous as the seems given what I wrote earlier) than against MD in the RAC. I have visions of that 96-93 North Carolina game. As for Iowa, if RU takes two of three (OSU-MD-WIS), the Scarlets Knights win handily. If RU gets only a win at Wisconsin, the Iowa game is close but won within regulation.
Having the Michigan game in the bag, RU will go 3-2 or better the rest of the way (4-1 possible, 5-0 not impossible).
MICH PF/PA: Overall 1,26 Away 1,19 B1G 1,23
@OSU PF/PA: Overall 1,19 Home 1,25 B1G 1,09
MD PF/PA: Overall 1,37 Away 1,20 B1G 1,23
@WIS PF/PA: Overall 0,93 Home 1,00 B1G 0,83
IOWA PF/PA: Overall 1,15 Away 1,05 B1G 0,99
@NW PF/PA: Overall 0,96 Home 1,00 B1G 0,87
RU PF/PA: OA 1,16 H 1,34 A 1,01 B1G 1,01
No surprise to anyone that teams perform better at home. Michigan had the smallest drop from overall to B1G, reflecting the improved play and consistency as they progressed through the season. RU plays really well at the RAC (best home record in conference), so not a surprise RU beat Michigan, even though Michigan has fared much better against the B1G so far. It was a good win and will give the Scarlet Knights confidence against the Buckeyes. We must win at Wisconsin and Northwestern, but looking at PF/PA, each game is a toss-up. RU has not played well on the road.
That leaves OSU, Maryland, and IOWA. Predictors give a solid win for OSU, but I have a sense that they are vulnerable to tough D and don´t seem to play much defense. Further, RU and OSU are not far apart in overall and B1G PF/PA. Predictors split on the MD game. The Terapins just score so many points and can play defense if they have to, I think. Even though GAMER predicts a win for RU, my gut says RU is more likely to win on the road at OSU (as incongruous as the seems given what I wrote earlier) than against MD in the RAC. I have visions of that 96-93 North Carolina game. As for Iowa, if RU takes two of three (OSU-MD-WIS), the Scarlets Knights win handily. If RU gets only a win at Wisconsin, the Iowa game is close but won within regulation.
Having the Michigan game in the bag, RU will go 3-2 or better the rest of the way (4-1 possible, 5-0 not impossible).
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