B1G Returning Points Per Team
- Thread starter RU-Choppin-Ohio
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Not sure how they calculated this. We're returning 53.5% without Palmquist, and 55.6% with him back on the roster.
I wonder what our percentage is if you include Mulcahy and Spencer. There are many people on this board that think Noah and Griffiths will be offensive upgrades over those two.
Penn State - Oof!
Penn State - Oof!
Honestly IMO, Noah and Gavin will be offensive upgrades. Noah scores in more ways than Paul ever has shown. Gavin has proven for a couple of years on the AAU circuit he can score on top players in his class where as Cam was a low major recruit out of high school and struggles to shoot or score vs quick athletic guards or perimeter-strong defensive minded guards in college, UNC, Illinois, Mich St, Indiana, Miami(FL), Temple, Seton Hall, Penn St, Nebraska, Maryland. Cam struggled to shoot or score vs South Carolina St and Hampton in 21-22 at Loyola(MD). Wouldn't shock me if Gavin hits more 3s in 23-24 than Cam.
Paul 22-23(30gm) 8.3pts, 3.6trb, 4.9ast, 41.6/37.0/72.3
Career(121gm) 6.8pts, 3.4trb, 3.8ast, 45.1/36.4/71.6
818 career points
Noah 22-23(11gm) 13.4pts, 2.5trb, 4.1ast, 48.0/45.2/64.0
Career(73gm) 10.1pts, 2.4 trb, 3.8ast, 42.8/37.6/75.6
738 career points
Cam 22-23(34gm) 13.4pts, 3.8trb, 3.1ast, 44.4/43.4/89.4
Career(92gm) 14.1pts, 4.1trb, 3.1ast, 46.2/40.5/86.6
Gavin- top 25/50 recruit for a reason in 2023, almost impossible to get legit hs stats.
Paul 22-23(30gm) 8.3pts, 3.6trb, 4.9ast, 41.6/37.0/72.3
Career(121gm) 6.8pts, 3.4trb, 3.8ast, 45.1/36.4/71.6
818 career points
Noah 22-23(11gm) 13.4pts, 2.5trb, 4.1ast, 48.0/45.2/64.0
Career(73gm) 10.1pts, 2.4 trb, 3.8ast, 42.8/37.6/75.6
738 career points
Cam 22-23(34gm) 13.4pts, 3.8trb, 3.1ast, 44.4/43.4/89.4
Career(92gm) 14.1pts, 4.1trb, 3.1ast, 46.2/40.5/86.6
Gavin- top 25/50 recruit for a reason in 2023, almost impossible to get legit hs stats.
It's not as simple as comparing 1:1 between Fernandes:Mulcahy and Griffiths:Spencer. We have lost Mulcahy/Spencer/McConnell from our guard rotation and have replaced them with Fernandes/Davis/Griffiths. It is much more likely that Griffiths will be starting more at the 3-spot given his size defensively, which really makes him McConnell's replacement more than Spencer's.
Fernandes should be a scoring upgrade over Mulcahy - but Mulcahy's value was seen in many categories beyond points, both across the stat sheet and off of it. Remains to be seen the net improvement here.
Griffiths should be a dramatic scoring upgrade over McConnell - but it will be a tradeoff against losing McConnell's defense.
Simpson will see more minutes this year, which will take up a portion of what Spencer was giving us. Davis will need to give us the rest of Spencer's minutes, at least given the current roster.
There are a lot of unknowns, though. If Palmquist comes back, that gives more flexibility for Mag to play the 3, which will likely give more minutes to Griffiths at the 2. If we get another SG like (either) Williams, that'd also be weighed against the remaining Spencer minutes.
I'm less concerned about points per game than points per possession, both scored and allowed.
Whichever one leads to more points on the scoreboard at the end of the game in 21 of 32 games is the one I like.
I hope so. We’ll see. The bottom line though is Caleb didn’t often look to be first option or force bad shots early in the shot clock. He and Simpson took those when we couldn’t get anything else going on offense. That’s what typically happens - your guards get those desperation shots off. For whatever reason Paul rarely took initiative to try to score in those situations so it was Caleb and Simpson.
I think it’s naive to assume Noah will be a better play maker in the BIG than our guards from last year coming off an injury and last playing in the A10. As I said, we’ll see. GG is only one player. And he will be a frosh. Even if he’s frosh of the year caliber - it’s really doubtful he drops 20+ a game. Caleb gave us 9+. Cam 13+. Paul 8+. Simpson 7+. Our guards scored 38 ppg. Assuming Simpson, Noah, GG, Williams and Davis are blowing this total out to sea much more efficiently seems very optimistic. It could happen, sure. But of this group we have 2 guys coming off injuries and moving up a level, 2 others true frosh, and Simpson returning (who was one of our least efficient guards last season). A lot of open questions there.
Yes, a lot of unknowns. Hopefully the overseas trip gives them a head start. I do think this team may struggle early on vs better competition as Mag gets his game back up to full speed. Hoping I’m wrong and Pike pushes all the right buttons from the get go.
You seem confident that your a subject matter expert on GG and that he’s going to be the next Michael Beasley for us (first kid to pop into my mind who single handedly had enough impact to get his team in the tourney). I believe that KState team was a bubble team - that was with Beasley scoring +26 as a frosh….
Our starting point was a team that missed the tourney. Noah, Williams and Mag are question marks because all are returning from rough injuries. Davis is a frosh - unknown entity at the college level. Hopefully Hyatt and Simpson become more consistent. Even if you are right about GG and he’s another Beasley - Cliff is the only surefire constant (provided he stays healthy). We still need several other things to go our way to be significantly improved.
Very true. Gavin is going to be good but I don’t see him having a dominating freshman season. Guys that do are usually physically ready. Gavin is not. Not many guys are.
We missed the tourney largely because of lack of quality depth. We have that same risk this year.
Who doesn’t think Cliff and his backups won’t be more prone both ends of the court?
Had to google Beasley?
It was the best comparison I could think of for a kid who came in and made that huge of an impact as a frosh (he was the number 2 draft pick in 2008). That K-State team also had another redshirt frosh on it (injury) who was a 2008 second round pick on it (Henry Walker was drafted and played in 181 NBA games). That team went 21-12…
My point is even if GG is the next Beasley (second overall pick type dropping 26+ ppg) that alone doesn’t even guarantee to make us a great team. We still need for most of the guys recovering from injury to pick up where they left off. We need the transition up for either Noah or Williams (ideally both) to be seamless on top of no injury issues. There are a lot of things. We need for our other BIGs besides Cliff to be able to give 10+ competitive minutes.
I agree. On top of that I can’t imagine Gavin had an impact like Beasley. I just thought it was curious that he had to google Beasley. Any basketball fan over the age of 25 should know who he is.
You go back to 2008 and Michael Beasley for your comparison regarding possible impact for Gavin Griff as a freshmen?
😂 😂 😂, Is that a joke?
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You can just stay in the B1G for reasonable comparisons. First year impact of guys like Joe Weiskamp, Jalen Hood Scafino, even Kofi Cockburn.
Guys that added a key element to a team. It resulted in their team taking it to the next level and dramatically improve.
Of those, only Jalen Hood Scalifino was rated like Gavin. Number 18 recruit vs. Number 21 recruit.
Guys that added a key element to a team. It resulted in their team taking it to the next level and dramatically improve.
Of those, only Jalen Hood Scalifino was rated like Gavin. Number 18 recruit vs. Number 21 recruit.
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Anything is possible. I thought last years team would struggle without Geo and Ron. But before the Mag injury, they actually were a better team than the year before. Rutgers lost three high level, experienced players. Plus Mag starts the season at less than full speed. That’s a lot. I don’t see the additions making up the difference, right now.
True, but so many other teams have question marks also. Freshman, transfers, guys coming off injuries or surgery, sophomores who haven’t taken off yet….
Huh? You are completely misinterpretting my post. I’m not looking for an example of a frosh who comes in and is just a big time contributor. Simpson contributed last season on our team as a frosh. The starting point is - take it as a given GG will be a double digit type frosh starter. The guys you mentioned like Wieskamp, Jalen Hood and Kofi averaged 11, 13 and 13 ppg respectively. Those types of numbers will replace Cam from a team that did not make the tourney and aren’t a given to be an upgrade on D (that’s always a wildcard with a frosh - and yea, I know Cam isn’t the best defender but still). 13 ppg from Gavin doesn’t come close to guaranteeing us a tourney bid.
To be clear - I was looking for an example of a kid that came in and stood out as a stand alone savior type. Michael Beasley fit that bill - he averaged 26 ppg, 12.4 rpg, on 38% from 3 and +53% FG percentage (as the highest usage player). If you can think of more recent frosh examples that fits this description good for you. This was the first one that popped into my mind. Huggs has also been a topic recently and he coached that KState team and prioritizes defense in a similar way to Pike so thats another soft parallel. Not the same personalities (polar opposites) but in their own ways, both coaches historically find ways to get all kids playing team ball through D first. Just as I compare Caleb to Jevon Carter (even though they are diff types of players), Beasley could be a possible comparison to lengthy elite players that we bring in - for this reason.
It is not about who is replacing Cam's points or Mulcahy' s points or McConnell's. Projecting the new players into last years style to try to determine if they will be a tourney team is a useless exercise.
Rutgers does not need a savior type to make the Tournament. Not sure why that's even a topic.
Gavin and the others are part of a new era. This will be a fundamental transformation of how the team plays. No more grind it out, slow half court offense with slow players. It will be uptempo. This new team will literally have zero slow players.
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That’s fine. But the point is everyone else (outside of Cliff) being depended on to improve the team from last year is unproven at the major conference level and/or returning from a significant injury. My post was mostly in response to Milo’s comments about how much of a difference GG would make straight up. Your right - the team will look different but we need a lot of other things to happen too to be a tourney team besides GG being great unless he’s great at the Beasley level as a frosh. Being great at the level you mentioned with those other examples doesn’t get the job done without other guys making major leaps too. Like Simpson or Hyatt. Or Mag coming back 100% from injury. Or Noah and Williams playing as well at BIG level as midmajor returning from injury.
I am very interested in seeing how Knight tweaks the offense and how it differs from what Hobbs preferred. I don’t expect huge changes but the personnel certainly is different.
Carmelo Anthony says Hi!
www.sports-reference.com
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He scored 22/10 and won a National Championship in his lone season in college as their leading scorer. He was also a top 5 recruit.
That team was mostly Sophs and freshmen that year.
Carmelo Anthony College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
Carmelo Anthony - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more
www.sports-reference.com
2002-03 Syracuse Orange Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
Check out the detailed 2002-03 Syracuse Orange Roster and Stats for College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
www.sports-reference.com
He scored 22/10 and won a National Championship in his lone season in college as their leading scorer. He was also a top 5 recruit.
That team was mostly Sophs and freshmen that year.
Fans are still somehow worried about being better than last year, which is a given.....this team is much better than last year. My definition is probably a combined 6PPG better on offense and defense.
Cliff Senior year over Cliff junior year
Same concept applies for every returning player. We have to assume every returning player will be better this coming season.
Hyatt, Mag, Simpson, Woolfolk, Chol,, Palmquist. It doesn't mean that everyone's PPG, RPG or APG has to increase.....those only increase based on whether there are minutes or shots available for all of those returning players.
Then you have to make actual basketball evaluations for what type of player has arrived for 2023-24 vs the players that departed.
Fernandes is a better PG than Mulcahy. Pretty clear upgrade at this position.
Gavin Griffiths is as accomplished as shooter, dribbler, scorer and player than Cam Spencer. At 6'7", he will be able to get cleaner looks with a quicker release at guard.
With more 3 point shot attempts with Gavin instead of the slower release of Spencer, will result in a slightly lower shooting percentage from 3 vs Spencer, but will increase RUs winning percentage, PPG and impact on other teammates. Spencer was totally reliant on the entire offense setting screen after screen, just to find him an open shot. It eliminated any chance of improving the offense and there frankly weren't many other options, with Mulcahy's inability to score consistently.
Here are the other upgrades.
Ogbole is a more physically ready Center to backup Cliff. He's more likely to block shots vs Reiber and rebound better than Dean. We will lose the occasional 3 point attempts that Dean launched, but on paper, Cliff can take a couple more threes while Ogbole doesn't likely take any 3s.
Austin Williams will effectively replace Caleb McConnell on offense. That offensive upgrade, will be felt immediately. To sacrifice getting more shooting, more scoring, will sacrifice defense. No one replaces Caleb's defense. Austin isn't a poor or average defensive player 1 on 1 like Spencer and Mulcahy, but no one replaces a 2 time DPOY piece like Caleb.
The JaMicheal Davis addition is an upgrade over Jalen Miller.
The other addition that could develop is the key of Jeremiah Williams......we have been conditioned to not expect him to be healthy OR to not expect him to be eligible with a waiver.
I would be shocked if Williams isn't practicing by October and able to get up to speed. There's no way to know how aggressive Williams or RU will be, in seeking a waiver. But since we have depth at the guard position, RU can quietly make the moves to do so. I fully expect RU to pursue the waiver for Williams, while he continues towards returning to 100%. Williams is a plus defender and while he is not Caleb, if he's close to 100%, he can be a plus defender.
Addition by subtraction always happens with RU basketball, to find new and expanded roles when starters transfer.
Eugene Omoyuri transferred, RHJ and Yeboah stepped up and RU improved.....Myles Johnson was supposed to be a major loss, Cliff with limited experience as a frosh, stepped up as a sophomore.
I don't see any downside with both Williams and Griffiths vs what departed.
My guess is our scoring with be back to normal (like 2 years ago) and we'll be the same in defense. I see a 3 to 4 game improvement, with far fewer non competitive losses. (8 of the 10 B1G regular season losses were by 6 to 10+ points).
Cliff Senior year over Cliff junior year
Same concept applies for every returning player. We have to assume every returning player will be better this coming season.
Hyatt, Mag, Simpson, Woolfolk, Chol,, Palmquist. It doesn't mean that everyone's PPG, RPG or APG has to increase.....those only increase based on whether there are minutes or shots available for all of those returning players.
Then you have to make actual basketball evaluations for what type of player has arrived for 2023-24 vs the players that departed.
Fernandes is a better PG than Mulcahy. Pretty clear upgrade at this position.
Gavin Griffiths is as accomplished as shooter, dribbler, scorer and player than Cam Spencer. At 6'7", he will be able to get cleaner looks with a quicker release at guard.
With more 3 point shot attempts with Gavin instead of the slower release of Spencer, will result in a slightly lower shooting percentage from 3 vs Spencer, but will increase RUs winning percentage, PPG and impact on other teammates. Spencer was totally reliant on the entire offense setting screen after screen, just to find him an open shot. It eliminated any chance of improving the offense and there frankly weren't many other options, with Mulcahy's inability to score consistently.
Here are the other upgrades.
Ogbole is a more physically ready Center to backup Cliff. He's more likely to block shots vs Reiber and rebound better than Dean. We will lose the occasional 3 point attempts that Dean launched, but on paper, Cliff can take a couple more threes while Ogbole doesn't likely take any 3s.
Austin Williams will effectively replace Caleb McConnell on offense. That offensive upgrade, will be felt immediately. To sacrifice getting more shooting, more scoring, will sacrifice defense. No one replaces Caleb's defense. Austin isn't a poor or average defensive player 1 on 1 like Spencer and Mulcahy, but no one replaces a 2 time DPOY piece like Caleb.
The JaMicheal Davis addition is an upgrade over Jalen Miller.
The other addition that could develop is the key of Jeremiah Williams......we have been conditioned to not expect him to be healthy OR to not expect him to be eligible with a waiver.
I would be shocked if Williams isn't practicing by October and able to get up to speed. There's no way to know how aggressive Williams or RU will be, in seeking a waiver. But since we have depth at the guard position, RU can quietly make the moves to do so. I fully expect RU to pursue the waiver for Williams, while he continues towards returning to 100%. Williams is a plus defender and while he is not Caleb, if he's close to 100%, he can be a plus defender.
Addition by subtraction always happens with RU basketball, to find new and expanded roles when starters transfer.
Eugene Omoyuri transferred, RHJ and Yeboah stepped up and RU improved.....Myles Johnson was supposed to be a major loss, Cliff with limited experience as a frosh, stepped up as a sophomore.
I don't see any downside with both Williams and Griffiths vs what departed.
My guess is our scoring with be back to normal (like 2 years ago) and we'll be the same in defense. I see a 3 to 4 game improvement, with far fewer non competitive losses. (8 of the 10 B1G regular season losses were by 6 to 10+ points).
I actually agree with a lot of this — not word for word but the overall themes.
I agree Fernandes is likely an improvement at PG over 2022-23 Mulcahy.
I agree that Austin Williams is an improvement offensively over Caleb, but worse defensively.
I agree senior Cliff will be better than junior Cliff.
I agree Ogbole (pending injury recovery) will be an upgrade defensively over Woolf/Reiber at the backup 5.
I agree the other returning players should be a tick better than their versions last year.
I agree J-Mike is an improvement over Miller (and significantly so).
I’m not sure, though, about freshman Gavin over 5th year senior Cam Spencer. Is Gavin more “talented” and have higher upside? Most certainly. I just don’t know if that hits in 2023-24. But it’s close.
I also worry about the 4 until Mag is fully healthy. Not sure we’re going to play good enough defense without Mag.
Gavin is not Carmelo.Carmelo Anthony says Hi!
Carmelo Anthony College Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
Carmelo Anthony - Stats, Game Logs, Splits, and much more2002-03 Syracuse Orange Men's Roster and Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
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He scored 22/10 and won a National Championship in his lone season in college as their leading scorer. He was also a top 5 recruit.
That team was mostly Sophs and freshmen that year.
RU had a veteran team least year that was in the same system for 5 years. Fans are not accounting for the continuity that team had. Pike said it himself many times. It was a major advantage over many opponents.
That being said, on paper the 23-24 team has many options and different skills sets. That could produce success on the court. I’m not down on this team, but there are a lot of unknowns with all the new additions. Will they gel quick enough to get off to good start? Who will be the vocal leader? Will Mag be healthy enough?
I see Cliff having a big year. I think the season comes down to Noah performing at a high level (13-15 points, 5+ assists), Mag returning to form and Simpson or Williams (assuming he is added) being a clutch performer late in games. If those three happen, they should have a high ceiling.
I agree with your continuity comment. It’s an intangible that’s hard to measure, but it’s something that all of Pike’s teams thrive on.
I think ultimate success depends on Mag returning to full health. We saw last year how important he is to the team.
But in the short term, we need Griffiths, Fernandes, Simpson, and Cliff to lead the team on offense.
Where in my post did I say that? Someone mentioned Michael Beasley 26/12 as the most impactful freshman, and I was pointing out that Carmelo was and says Hi with his credentials of 22/10 that helped lead Cuse to a Natty. Not one word about comparing Gavin or any player to Carmelo Anthony. Carmelo and Beasley were Top 3/5 talent and Gavin is top 25/50 talent. We might have 2 players in 2024 that could potentially have that type of impact, but I'm pretty confident in saying Gavin will average double digits in points with about 2.5-5.0 rebounds and assists for 23-24.
I’m not arguing with you and I agree with what you wrote. Some on this board think Gavin will play like Carmelo or Beasley year one. He’s not physically ready like those guys were. Gavin averaging 10-12 is much more realistic. Others have him averaging a lot more which I just don’t see. I would be happy to be wrong.
Could be a really good team for sure by March if Mag and J. Williams are 100% by then.
If Gavin overachieves by scoring efficiently WITH volume then they could probably hang with anyone in the country…and winning just four in a row in March Madness gets you all the way to the Final Four.
If Gavin overachieves by scoring efficiently WITH volume then they could probably hang with anyone in the country…and winning just four in a row in March Madness gets you all the way to the Final Four.
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