Okay here we go folks...first edition of Bacatology for the season. You guys are now in the presence of the third rated bracketologist in the entire universe for 2024. Please BEAR (š»)with spelling errors and other mistakes. As always questions are welcomed if not mandatory. Always up for a good discussion.
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Alabama, Duke*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Purdue, Houston*, Texas A&M, Tennessee
THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Texas Tech
FOUR SEEDS: Arizona, Michigan*, St Johnās*, Kansas
FIVE SEEDS: Michigan State, Marquette, Missouri, UCLA
SIX SEEDS: Maryland, Mississippi, Louisville, Illinois
SEVEN SEEDS: Mississippi State, Creighton, Clemson, Memphis*
EIGHT SEEDS: Saint Maryās*, Oregon, Connecticut, New Mexico*
NINE SEEDS: Baylor, West Virginia, Utah State, Nebraska
TEN SEEDS: Gonzaga, Ohio State, Texas, San Diego State
ELEVEN SEEDS: Drake*, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt/Georgia, Arkansas/Wake Forest
TWELVE SEEDS: UC San Diego*, George Mason*, Yale*, Mc Neese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, Arkansas State*, High Point*, Utah Valley State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Jacksonville State*, Chatanooga*, Towson*, Northern Alabama*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Connecticut State*, Montana*, Bryant*, Cleveland State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SE Missouri*, Quinnipiac*/American*, Omaha*/Southern*
31 AQs indictate by asterik *.
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the 8 seed line ending at Oregon.
That takes cares of 23 at larges leaving only 14 open and 33 schools competing for them
BUBBLES IN
(35) CONNECTICUT 17-8: Seems strange to still find the 2 time defending National Champs on the bubble list but here we are. Thats what happens when you annex one of the most grotesque losses you will find on a NCAA resume. It is no secret that the Huskies have been hot and cold this year but were always rebounding. Seemed on the correct course after dropping that tough SJU game by going on the road and winning at Creighton. No one could have imagined an overtime loss to lowly 200 something 6 win dreg Seton Hall. Well it counts only as a Q3 but its a major blemish and its the Huskies 2nd Q3 loss (Colorado). Now not suggesting that the Huskies are in any danger of falling out of the tourney with 6 games to go. Still they would do well to stave off any implosion and a least maintain some dignity down the stretch. Games with Nova who beat them and at St Johns are next plus a matchup with Marquette. UConn will need to win the other 3...Gtown, SHU at PC to maintain their positioning. Seeding took a blow as they were trending toward more of a 7 but now maybe locked in moreso as an 8/9. 5-4 in Q1 and 9-6 in Q1/2 shows road wins at Marq/Creigh and fine non conference trio over Gonzaga, Baylor and Texas are all major plusses.
(28) BAYLOR 15-9: With just 15 wins, the Bears want to be careful to navigate their final 6 by maybe getting 3 of them to keep above any real bubble fray. 5-8 in Q1 includes a home win over Kansas and on a neutral court St Johns and bubble Arkanas. But remember two of those 5 Q1 wins are to also rans Utah and Arizona State. The 5-0 mark in Q2 shows a win over WVU. There is a borderline Q2/3 home loss to bubble TCU. Its a nice profile but its not filled with a lot of head turning type wins. The SOS stuff is strong at 4/15. Securing a home win tonight over Arizona would give them so needed pop otherwise they will ge another chance at a high level Q1 victory when Houston comes in for the season finale.
(44) WEST VIRGINIA 15-10: WVU has lost 6 of 8 and that has started to eat away at the edges of their resume with the record down to 15-10. Tough to undo those 4 high level Q1 wins (5-7 overall) though.....Iowa State, at Kansas, Neutral over Arizona/Gonzaga. Just 2-3 in Q2 is where you see the recent losses to BYU, Arizona State and TCU reside. 10-10 vs Q1/2/3 so they will want to at least tread water in their last 6 to keep them near 500 here. Its a tricky set of road games but if they care of business at home, there really should not be any major worries.
(38) UTAH STATE 21-4: No shame in losing a heartbreaker at New Mexico but it completed the series sweep for the Lobos that put USU playing for 2nd place in the MWC. Very interesting to see how the committee treats the MWC. Their NCAA futilty was already noted last year in some downgrade of seeding despite 5 schools getting bids. This season across the board the NET metrics are down and its looking like a 3 bid league tops. The Aggies look pretty solid with a 3-1 Q1 mark..all on the road including a big ooc win at St Marys plus at San Diego State. Very solid in Q2 (6-3) to put them 9-4 in Q1/2 includes wins over Boise State, Iowa, North Texas. Worst loss is at UNLV which currently is a Q2. SOS solid enough at 93/106. 5 games left...a couple of tricky road trips to Boise/Colorado State. SDSU at home and two bottom feeders so a few wins here does it for them.
(46) NEBRASKA 17-9: Boy the Huskers are doing everything right over the past few weeks after their season looked headed toward the toilet. 5 wins in their las 6...3 of them in Quad 1 alone. Now an impressive 6-7 in Q1 highlighted by wins at Oregon, ooc over Creighton, home wins vs Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State gives them 5 wins vs teams in the field. The home loss to sinking Rutgers is now Quad 3 so there is blemish there but the 11-9 Q1/2/3 mark is solid. 5 games left to navigate and they seem very doable....3 home game vs Miichgan/Minny/Iowa and 2 road games at PSU/OSU. Barring an implosion Nebby is looking like all systems go.
(10) GONZAGA 20-7: The # 10 NET is certainly the anomoly of the season. While the Zags played a brutal schedule OOC ranked 26 with wins over Baylor and San Diego State, the fact is those are the only wins vs teams in the field they have. Wins vs 8s and 10s are not some of the profilic type wins the Zags have nabbed in the past and St Marys is not quite as strong either and the league rated 10th this year even behind CUSA is notable. 2-5 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 with wins over Indiana, San Fran, ASU but also loses to Oregon State and Santa Clara. Just 2-0 in Q3 bTut despite the strong sos 11 of their wins are coming from Q4. The resume does not have a lot of depth so the Zags need to close out strong and its a very dangerous last 4...3 road trips to Washington State, San Fran, Santa Clara and a home tilt with St Marys.
(30) OHIO STATE 15-11: Buckeyes do have some good things going for them so let us start there. 4-8 in Quad 1 but 3 of them are high level Quad 1 wins...at Purdue, Maryland and neutral site Kentucky. There is an additional neutral site OOC win over Texas. OSU has the non conference chops plus the conference wins needed. There are no losses outside Q2 7-11. The SOS at 6/34 is excelllent. Here is the rub....the overall mark down to 15-11 and a teetering 9-11 in Q1/2/3 is an issue going forward. Pretty simple...5 games left, can they go 3-2 to get to 18-13 or do they go 2-3 which puts them at 17-14 with a 15 loss headed their way. In the latter case, I do not think it will work out for them. I will say they do pass the eye test but they will have to pass the 3-2 test vs Northwestern, at UCLA/USC, Nebby at Indiana.
(31) TEXAS 16-10: How huge was the Longhorns home win over Kentucky on Saturday. UT had lost 4 of 5 and was dropping out of many brackets. The win moved them to 4-8 in Quad 1 which helps given the still shaky 8-10 in Q1/2/3. Their best win remains the high level Q1 over highly regarded A&M. There are additional wins vs Missouri and at Oklahoma. The Horns didnt do much ooc with their best win a Q2 neutral court over St Joes and non conference sos of 285 with half of their 16 wins still coming from Q4. Their remains no bad loss here..the worst being Arkansas. WAB now looking brighter at 39. 2 Q1 games and 3 Quad 2 remain in last 5 but some dangerous road games at Arky/SC/Miss State plus Geo/OU at home so Texas will have to notch a couple wins here vs tourney type team in order to feel secure heading into selection sunday.
(50) SAN DIEGO STATE 16-6: Aztecs somehow lagging in the overall net metrics mainly do to the diminshed rankings of the Mountain West across the board and that is why they remain somewhat vulnerable. Yet its a pretty solid profile for their league. The Aztecs did well in Vegas scoring neutral site wins over Houston and Creighton. There is an additional impressive key win over Big West AQ UC San Diego. 4-4 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2. Just one bad loss and that was to UNLVat home. SOS OOC at 7 is good to go as are the SOR/WAB at 38/38. There is a sweep of Boise but I would like to see them get a win vs either Utah State or New Mexico the latter at home just to answer all questions.
(52) OKLAHOMA 16-9: And here we go with the first of 4 SEC bubbles among the last 5 in and let me tell you, there is very little seperating them right now and each one has issues. Schools playing their way to the mendoza line and some just trying to stay above the fray. Three more weeks to go and alot could change rapidly. The Sooners get the last bye by a whisker. Coming off a brutal home loss to LSU which is a Q3 and drops them to just 3-9 in the SEC. Conference record is not taken into consideration but all those losses piling up is reflective in their sinking metrics and now a bad loss to boot. The Sooners were last man out last year and apparently did not learn their lesson as they have dropped 5 of their last 6. Yet they possess 3 incredibly strong non conference wins....Arizona, Michigan and Louisville. No one around the bubble has OOC wins so good. Yet beyond that is a 30 point home win vs Vandy and a Q1 road win at Arkansas. Its is 5 wins vs teams projected in the field and they still are 7 games above 500. 4-7 in Q1, 2-1 in Q2 and 3-1 in Q2 so they are still holding on at 9-9 in Q1/2/3. Strap yourselves in Sooners....6 straight Q1 games to go and its a gauntlet...at Fla, Miss St, KY, at Ole Miss, Mizzou, at Texas. So yeah I think we will know by seasons end what their fate is.
(41) VANDERBILT 17-8: The Commodores resume may seem less in a tailspin that either Oklahoma and Georgia even as they have lost 5 of their last 6. A bit of a plus to have only 8 losses right now. The 2-7 Quad 1 mark is not so great but includes home wins over Tennessee and Kentucky. In Q2 there is a win over Texas and neutral site over TCU 4-1 in Q2 and 3-0 in Q3 at least puts them at 9-8 in Q1/2/3 which is a plus. No bad losses and yeah that 327 OOC mark is screaming foul. Yet WAB is solid right now at 36 with a SOF of 35. That gives them just enough cushion right to be above the cut line. Final 6 will be brutal what else is new...at KY, Ole Miss, at A&M, Mizzou, Arky, at Ga. Get 2 of them and they likely are okay.
(42) ARKANSAS 15-10: Not an overwhelming profile but Cal getting the Razorbacks to pull of consecutive Q1 road wins at Kentucky and Texas puts them right in the thick of things. 3-8 in Q1 shows an additional quality win neutral site over Michigan. There is an additional home win over Georgia giving them 4 wins vs schools in the field. No loss outside Q2 but yeah the 4-10 Q1/2 mark is quite messy. 4-0 in Q3 at least puts them in range at 8-10 Q1/2/3 but like everyone else in this last grouping, its going to come down to what they do in the final 6. Just 4-8 in league currently the rest of the slate...at Auburn, Mizzou, Texas, at SC, at Vandy, Miss State. Going to need to win their share.
(58) WAKE FOREST 19-7: The home loss to Fla State last week, a Q3 should have been more costly and yet the Deacons still find themselves in the field largely because they got their 2nd Q 1 win of the year vs fellow ACC bubble SMU. Now 2-6 in Quad 1, there is a neutral site win over Michigan looking better by the day. A better 5-0 in Q2 puts them at 7-6 in Q1/2 showing wins over UNC, Pitt, and at Stanford. 6-1 in Quad 3 puts them at a very solid 13-7 in Q1/2/3. It is somewhat of a similar profile to what Virginia had last year and what Pitt/Notre Dame had in previous seasons so keep an eye on that. No not overwhelming and lacking wins over any of the top 3 in league. Encouraging though is the sos stuff at 57/48. WAB/SOR at 34/33 and that is a big indicator in the positive direction right no
(39) GEORGIA 16-10: The Bulldogs have dropped 8 of their last 10 and are literally in freefall but somehow stay in the field speaks to how AT THIS TIME, its very tough to fill out the field. Not sure how much water UGA's boat can take on. There is the OOC win over St Johns looking better by the day and a fine home win over Kentucky yet that puts them at 2-10 in Q1 and in Q2 the only win of note was home win over Oklahoma. Note a loss at Arkansas. 5-10 in Q1/2 and only 8-10 vs Q1/2/3. Like the others, the Dawgs simply have to win enough down the stretch to keep their spot...last 5 starting at Auburn and home to Florida look daunting. A finish at SC, at Tex, Vandy may require that 3 game sweep.
BUBBLES OUT
(47) NORTH CAROLINA 15-11: Well the Tar Heels are finding themselves comfortable around the soft underbelly of an impressive bubble. Let's start with the obscene 1-10 Q1 mark where they can only point to a win in NYC over UCLA. They certainly scheduled tough OOC and that mark at 5 but they lost to almost everyone...Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Kansas, Michigan State plus Duke, UL, Clemson in league play. How many tries should they get. A better 5-0 in Q2 shows wins over bubbles SMU, Pitt and Dayton. 5-1 in Q3 with one point loss to Stanford which could prove costly. 10-1 in Q2/3 isnt bad. Heels are at 500 in Q1/2/3. Its just hard to take them seriously with just one win vs a team projected in the field. They only have one other Q1 shot and thats Duke. I am not sure just a win over Duke does this for them like in other seasons but I suppose if they run the table before that game and end on a 6 game win streak with 21 wins they may be closer to get in than they appear right now.
(40) SMU 19-6: That really was a costly home loss to fellow bubble Wake over the weekend. Despite the gaudy record and metrics, the quality wins just are not there and unfortunately for them only one needle moving game vs Clemson remains among the last 6 sea of ACC mediocrity. If you think UNC is bad at 1-10, while the Mustangs are 0-4. They went 0-4 vs Duke, UL, Wake, UNC. In Q2 they are 5-1 which shows a win over Pitt but they have zero wins vs teams in the field. There are some unimpressive Q2 wins vs the likes of Wa State, NC State. LSU. Quad 3 they are 9-0 and this is somewhere the committee has looked at especially from ACC schools. There are no wins of note but getting to 14-6 in Q1/2/3 among a power 5 conference will give them a look. Advice to them...win and keep winning.
(36) BYU 17-8: Seeing alot of BYU showing up in brackets the last few days and I am just not buying the Cougars yet. Strong metrics now at 36, an okay SOR of 43 yet borderline WAB at 46. I get it, its a clean profile and the Q1/2/3 mark at 11-8 seems better than alot around the bubble. 3-6 in Q1 and thats where their 2 wins vs the field reside...Baylor and at WVU. Q2 is 5-2 and while its true, the worst losses at TCU and PC are close to being Q1, I dont really find wins over Cincy, ASU, Colorado and Kansas State enough to flesh out the resume. I guess the best thing they have going for them is what they havent done rather than what they have. For me its a not tourney worth resume but it could be. Big home games with Kansas/WVU/Utah loom and the road tilts at the Arizona schools and Iowa State are brutal. The Cougars will either make their case in the next 6 or die trying.
(34) VCU 19-5: Well the A10 up to their old tricks again making braceketology so difficult by producing yet another school with a gaudy record, gaudy overall NET but lacking any depth of quality wins. To make matters worse, the Rams equallled UConn for one of the worst losses o a resume as they fell to hideous Seton Hall on a neutral court. Yup thats a Quad 4 loss where the Rams frightening have 11 wins from alone. Thats reflect in a non conference sos of 286. 1-1 in Q1 shows a win at Dayton. 5-3 in Q2 does show 4 seemingly unimpressive Q2 road wins and a neutral site over Colorado State. Can we take these wins seriously. None of them are sniffing post season. Two indicators that the Rams may be facing an uphill battle...SOR at 52 and WAB at an unhealthy 56. They are a legit threat to win the A10 tourney so they should start there. I do not think they can get an at large unless they win the A10 regular season so they will need to usurp George Mason there. They will get a chance at the Patriots on Saturday plus another game with Dayton that could help at the margins.
(74) DAYTON 17-8: Flyers have such a solid non conference resume. Wins over Marquette at home and UConn neutral site. A win over Big 10 Northwestern thrown in as well. A very solid non conference sos of 61. Yet at just 8-5 in the A10, the Flyers almost feel like an afterthought in the A10 title race between VCU (who has a net 40 spots better) and George Mason (almost no at large hopes). The Flyers went 0-2 vs those schools but also have lopsided 20 point losses to fading St Bonnies and also ran GW. There is a hideous Quad 3 loss to 192 UMass. Just 4-7 vs Q1/2. With a NET sunk by those factors, those non conference wins losing their luster over time. 5 games left...2 Q2 road games and a then a trip to VCU for a Q1 game they must win. Yet for a team that on Saturday at home avoided another bad loss to a borderline Quad 4 Duquense team by 1 point, making a run looks like a reach.
(54) XAVIER 16-10: Muskateers have a punchers shot but it probably rests on winning their last 5 which only includes one moving the needle game home to Creighton. A paltry 1-8 in Q1 that being a road win at Marquette. Solid 6-2 in Q2 with wins over UConn, serious bubble Wake Forest and Nova. There is a loss in Q2 to Georgetown they probably want back. 7-10 vs Q1/2 and 9-10 in Q1/2/3 is rather murky at the moment. Slap on 5 more there to close the season and we could talk.
(73) KANSAS STATE 13-12: The Cats sat 7-11 a few weeks ago before running off 6 straight wins which included 3 enormous Q1 wins over Kansas/Arizona and at Iowa State. A finest stretch of play you will find from any school anywhere. No shame in losing at BYU over the weekend. However the reality is they dug such a hole with so many losses that any school just one game above 500 is in deep water. 4 Q1 wins but still sub 500 on Q1/2/3 at 9-12 and that loss at Wichita State in Q3 looms large as do close occ losses to Drake/Liberty. They will simply have to keep stacking wins. Thier last 6 are a managable bunch of Q1/2s against non ncaa schools besides an all important Q1 home finale vs Iowa State. An interesting watch to see if they can pull of this miraculous comeback but they might need 5 of them.
(57) INDIANA 15-11: Hoosiers threw their hat in the ring by notching their first quality win of the year at Michigan State but came up just short at home vs UCLA in a game they just had to have. Otherwise its really hard to make a case with this resume lacking any beef. These are just some unworkable numbers....2-11 in Q1....5-11 in Q1/2. Reality is they have lost 8 of 10 and that says everything. Any hope they have involves winning out which means beating Purdue/OSU at home, beating Oregon on the road and taking care of dregs like Penn State and Washington. Yeah that is happening.
(66) USC 14-11: Trojans were definitely putting themselves in play the past few weeks but that loss at home to Minnesota is a pretty major setback right now. Its the Trojans 2nd Q3 loss and in a year where even one Q3 loss sticks out among power 5 schools having 2 is problematic. USC 3-8 vs Q1 but they include a win at Illinois and Nebraska and their best win of the year over Michigan State. Unfortunately just 2-1 in Q2 leaves them at a paltry 5-9 in Q1/2 and 8-11 in Q1/2/3. With just 6 games left and 4 tough ones on the road, they probably need 5 of these 6 but that would mean wins at Oregon, Maryland, UCLA. Not sure they are capable of it but the Trojans will make a very very attractive Crown Invitational team in Vegas.
(48) BOISE STATE 16-8: Cowboys always in the hunt for an at large find themselves in deep waters of the bubble this year where the MWC is unlikely to get more than 3 bids. For starters there are two very very good OOC wins over St Marys and Clemson. The problem is Boise is currently 0-4 vs the top 3 of the MWC plus have a loss to also ran Col State to go along with 2 ooc losses to the likes of Wash St/San Fran and while those losses are all in Q1 or 2, the Cowboys are a measly 4-7 in Q1/2. 8-7 in Q1/2/3. Throw in a Quad 4 loss to wretched Boston College. There are just better options all over the place. There are home games left with New Mexico and Utah State so to even remain on the bubble, BSU will need to win them both and avoid landmines elsewhere.
(60) SAN FRANCISCO 20-7: The weakness of the bubble suggests the Dons may have a shot. Digging deeper into the resume would say its a big longshot. Just not enough here. Yes the home win over WCC leader St Mary's was nice its their only Q1 win (1-5) and they are just 2-2 in Q2 with solid home wins over bubbles Boise and Santa Clara. Yet only 8-7 in Q1/2/3 so 12 wins in Q4 is a tough swallow. Just 3 games left...bottom feeding Pacific, a borderline Q1/2 road game at Oregon and then a home tilt with Gonzaga. Dons need all 3 just to remain on the bubble. The WCC just does not have the "feel" of a three bid league this year.
(62) UC IRVINE 21-4: AntEaters are currently tied for the Big West lead so they can legit capture the conference AQ. Their at large chances and those of projected AQ UC San Diego are pretty hazy though. The Toros might have the better case because of their better metrics and better win (Utah State). Irvine with just the 1-0 in Q1 by winning at UC San Diego and just 4-2 in Q2 which shows 3 road wins at No Iowa, Cal Northridge, and Belmont. One two many Q3 losses both on the road to Duquense and Cal Riverside might be their undoing on a resume that is just lacking despite the guady overalll mark. Need to sweep last 6 and reach the Big West finals.
(76) TCU 14-11: Horned Frogs have won 4 of 5 and one can at least see a possible path amisdt some wobbly metrics. A paltry 2-8 in Quad 1 but the one at Arizona State barely moves needle. Their other is their best win over the year over Baylor. Solid win but not high level. In Q2 there are wins over WVU, bubbles BYU, Xavier, Kansas State so those are nice to have. Yet in there are losses to Utah, Santa Clara and Colorado State. 6-11 in Q1/2 isnt good but TCU can add to that as they have 4 Q1 and 2 Q2 games left. Home game tomorrow vs Texas Tech would be an enormous get and the feather in their cap they need.
(51) PITTSBURGH 15-10: Panthers really have a lot to work to do and seem in an impossible situation with just one Q1 game (Louisville) and one Q2 road game (at NC State) in their last 6 games left. In the weak sauce ACC their resume is already a distant 4th behind 3 other league bubbles. 1-8 in Quad 1 one just a win at bubble in Ohio State. Q2 3-1 with wins over WVU and UNC (they split) puts them only 4-9 in Q1/2. Q3 5-1 with a bad home loss to Virginia does get them to 10-10 but what does that even get them. They are likely in a win out mode.
(53) VILLANOVA 15-11: Cats unlikely win over St John's revived their flickering hopes but its pretty safe to say the blowout defeat at Providence put Nova's NCAA hopes back on ice. eerre Despite a solid enough overall NET just too many bad losses here and not enough big wins to overcome them. They never seemed to recover from the loss to Quad 4 Columbia. 2 Q3 losses to Virginia and Georgetown at home plus another questionable loss to Q2 St Joes. 1-5 in Q1, a better 5-3 in Q2. The UConn win isnt as shiny and the wins over Cincy/Xavier are nice but not needle movers. 5 games left starting with a trip to UConn and a home game with Marquette. They will need to sweep those and then navigate the remaining landmines
(55) SANTA CLARA 17-10: Broncs are largely here because of a road win at Gonzaga and I suppose with a home game left vs the Zags, SC might still be a considered a fringe bubble. There are some sneaky good wins here for a midmajor...at McNeese plus neutral site over Bradley/TCU and the split with USF. Yet as I said before, WCC does not have the 3 bid feel to it and the 10-10 Q1/2/3 current mark is just too many losses including bad ones to Loyola Marymount and S Dakota State. They will need to sweep their last 4 just to breath.
(45) CINCINNATI 15-10: The NET is willling and the Q2 mark of 7-1 is interesting but beyond that this just is not a invite worthy resume. Tough to overcome 1-9 in Quad 1 and 0-0 in Q3 puts them 8-10 in Q1/2/3. There are wins over bubblicious BYU, Xavier, and Dayton but there are still no wins over any school projected in the field. For a Big 12 conference school they will have to do better than that and Im not sure they can make a resume in just the last final weeks with only 3 Q1 opportunities left including one at Houston which is a MUST WIN.
(72) UTAH 14-11: Utes 1st Q1 win of the season over Kansas keeps them in play on the way outer fringes but the reality is they are pretty much in win out mode the rest of the season to put themselves in any serious consideration. No reason to expect a 6-0 finish is coming. Nasty metrics...Q1: 1-9, Q1/2: 4-11, Q1/2/3: 6-11, 1-6 on the road, and best OOC win was Radford...nuff said.
(75) CENTRAL FLORIDA 13-12: A win at Texas Tech and non conference Texas A&M certainly picque interest but the 3-12 Q1/2 mark says everything. UCF is DOA. Losers of 6 in a row and 8 of 9 there is little reason to expect a tourney push is coming and only one Q1 opportunity left to boot.
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA, WAKE FOREST, ARKANSAS, VANDERBILT
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, SMU, BYU, VCU
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Alabama, Duke*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Purdue, Houston*, Texas A&M, Tennessee
THREE SEEDS: Iowa State, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Texas Tech
FOUR SEEDS: Arizona, Michigan*, St Johnās*, Kansas
FIVE SEEDS: Michigan State, Marquette, Missouri, UCLA
SIX SEEDS: Maryland, Mississippi, Louisville, Illinois
SEVEN SEEDS: Mississippi State, Creighton, Clemson, Memphis*
EIGHT SEEDS: Saint Maryās*, Oregon, Connecticut, New Mexico*
NINE SEEDS: Baylor, West Virginia, Utah State, Nebraska
TEN SEEDS: Gonzaga, Ohio State, Texas, San Diego State
ELEVEN SEEDS: Drake*, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt/Georgia, Arkansas/Wake Forest
TWELVE SEEDS: UC San Diego*, George Mason*, Yale*, Mc Neese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Akron*, Arkansas State*, High Point*, Utah Valley State*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Jacksonville State*, Chatanooga*, Towson*, Northern Alabama*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Central Connecticut State*, Montana*, Bryant*, Cleveland State*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SE Missouri*, Quinnipiac*/American*, Omaha*/Southern*
31 AQs indictate by asterik *.
37 at large bids. I am locking in schools all the way down to the 8 seed line ending at Oregon.
That takes cares of 23 at larges leaving only 14 open and 33 schools competing for them
BUBBLES IN
(35) CONNECTICUT 17-8: Seems strange to still find the 2 time defending National Champs on the bubble list but here we are. Thats what happens when you annex one of the most grotesque losses you will find on a NCAA resume. It is no secret that the Huskies have been hot and cold this year but were always rebounding. Seemed on the correct course after dropping that tough SJU game by going on the road and winning at Creighton. No one could have imagined an overtime loss to lowly 200 something 6 win dreg Seton Hall. Well it counts only as a Q3 but its a major blemish and its the Huskies 2nd Q3 loss (Colorado). Now not suggesting that the Huskies are in any danger of falling out of the tourney with 6 games to go. Still they would do well to stave off any implosion and a least maintain some dignity down the stretch. Games with Nova who beat them and at St Johns are next plus a matchup with Marquette. UConn will need to win the other 3...Gtown, SHU at PC to maintain their positioning. Seeding took a blow as they were trending toward more of a 7 but now maybe locked in moreso as an 8/9. 5-4 in Q1 and 9-6 in Q1/2 shows road wins at Marq/Creigh and fine non conference trio over Gonzaga, Baylor and Texas are all major plusses.
(28) BAYLOR 15-9: With just 15 wins, the Bears want to be careful to navigate their final 6 by maybe getting 3 of them to keep above any real bubble fray. 5-8 in Q1 includes a home win over Kansas and on a neutral court St Johns and bubble Arkanas. But remember two of those 5 Q1 wins are to also rans Utah and Arizona State. The 5-0 mark in Q2 shows a win over WVU. There is a borderline Q2/3 home loss to bubble TCU. Its a nice profile but its not filled with a lot of head turning type wins. The SOS stuff is strong at 4/15. Securing a home win tonight over Arizona would give them so needed pop otherwise they will ge another chance at a high level Q1 victory when Houston comes in for the season finale.
(44) WEST VIRGINIA 15-10: WVU has lost 6 of 8 and that has started to eat away at the edges of their resume with the record down to 15-10. Tough to undo those 4 high level Q1 wins (5-7 overall) though.....Iowa State, at Kansas, Neutral over Arizona/Gonzaga. Just 2-3 in Q2 is where you see the recent losses to BYU, Arizona State and TCU reside. 10-10 vs Q1/2/3 so they will want to at least tread water in their last 6 to keep them near 500 here. Its a tricky set of road games but if they care of business at home, there really should not be any major worries.
(38) UTAH STATE 21-4: No shame in losing a heartbreaker at New Mexico but it completed the series sweep for the Lobos that put USU playing for 2nd place in the MWC. Very interesting to see how the committee treats the MWC. Their NCAA futilty was already noted last year in some downgrade of seeding despite 5 schools getting bids. This season across the board the NET metrics are down and its looking like a 3 bid league tops. The Aggies look pretty solid with a 3-1 Q1 mark..all on the road including a big ooc win at St Marys plus at San Diego State. Very solid in Q2 (6-3) to put them 9-4 in Q1/2 includes wins over Boise State, Iowa, North Texas. Worst loss is at UNLV which currently is a Q2. SOS solid enough at 93/106. 5 games left...a couple of tricky road trips to Boise/Colorado State. SDSU at home and two bottom feeders so a few wins here does it for them.
(46) NEBRASKA 17-9: Boy the Huskers are doing everything right over the past few weeks after their season looked headed toward the toilet. 5 wins in their las 6...3 of them in Quad 1 alone. Now an impressive 6-7 in Q1 highlighted by wins at Oregon, ooc over Creighton, home wins vs Illinois, UCLA, Ohio State gives them 5 wins vs teams in the field. The home loss to sinking Rutgers is now Quad 3 so there is blemish there but the 11-9 Q1/2/3 mark is solid. 5 games left to navigate and they seem very doable....3 home game vs Miichgan/Minny/Iowa and 2 road games at PSU/OSU. Barring an implosion Nebby is looking like all systems go.
(10) GONZAGA 20-7: The # 10 NET is certainly the anomoly of the season. While the Zags played a brutal schedule OOC ranked 26 with wins over Baylor and San Diego State, the fact is those are the only wins vs teams in the field they have. Wins vs 8s and 10s are not some of the profilic type wins the Zags have nabbed in the past and St Marys is not quite as strong either and the league rated 10th this year even behind CUSA is notable. 2-5 in Q1 and 3-2 in Q2 with wins over Indiana, San Fran, ASU but also loses to Oregon State and Santa Clara. Just 2-0 in Q3 bTut despite the strong sos 11 of their wins are coming from Q4. The resume does not have a lot of depth so the Zags need to close out strong and its a very dangerous last 4...3 road trips to Washington State, San Fran, Santa Clara and a home tilt with St Marys.
(30) OHIO STATE 15-11: Buckeyes do have some good things going for them so let us start there. 4-8 in Quad 1 but 3 of them are high level Quad 1 wins...at Purdue, Maryland and neutral site Kentucky. There is an additional neutral site OOC win over Texas. OSU has the non conference chops plus the conference wins needed. There are no losses outside Q2 7-11. The SOS at 6/34 is excelllent. Here is the rub....the overall mark down to 15-11 and a teetering 9-11 in Q1/2/3 is an issue going forward. Pretty simple...5 games left, can they go 3-2 to get to 18-13 or do they go 2-3 which puts them at 17-14 with a 15 loss headed their way. In the latter case, I do not think it will work out for them. I will say they do pass the eye test but they will have to pass the 3-2 test vs Northwestern, at UCLA/USC, Nebby at Indiana.
(31) TEXAS 16-10: How huge was the Longhorns home win over Kentucky on Saturday. UT had lost 4 of 5 and was dropping out of many brackets. The win moved them to 4-8 in Quad 1 which helps given the still shaky 8-10 in Q1/2/3. Their best win remains the high level Q1 over highly regarded A&M. There are additional wins vs Missouri and at Oklahoma. The Horns didnt do much ooc with their best win a Q2 neutral court over St Joes and non conference sos of 285 with half of their 16 wins still coming from Q4. Their remains no bad loss here..the worst being Arkansas. WAB now looking brighter at 39. 2 Q1 games and 3 Quad 2 remain in last 5 but some dangerous road games at Arky/SC/Miss State plus Geo/OU at home so Texas will have to notch a couple wins here vs tourney type team in order to feel secure heading into selection sunday.
(50) SAN DIEGO STATE 16-6: Aztecs somehow lagging in the overall net metrics mainly do to the diminshed rankings of the Mountain West across the board and that is why they remain somewhat vulnerable. Yet its a pretty solid profile for their league. The Aztecs did well in Vegas scoring neutral site wins over Houston and Creighton. There is an additional impressive key win over Big West AQ UC San Diego. 4-4 in Q1 and 3-1 in Q2. Just one bad loss and that was to UNLVat home. SOS OOC at 7 is good to go as are the SOR/WAB at 38/38. There is a sweep of Boise but I would like to see them get a win vs either Utah State or New Mexico the latter at home just to answer all questions.
(52) OKLAHOMA 16-9: And here we go with the first of 4 SEC bubbles among the last 5 in and let me tell you, there is very little seperating them right now and each one has issues. Schools playing their way to the mendoza line and some just trying to stay above the fray. Three more weeks to go and alot could change rapidly. The Sooners get the last bye by a whisker. Coming off a brutal home loss to LSU which is a Q3 and drops them to just 3-9 in the SEC. Conference record is not taken into consideration but all those losses piling up is reflective in their sinking metrics and now a bad loss to boot. The Sooners were last man out last year and apparently did not learn their lesson as they have dropped 5 of their last 6. Yet they possess 3 incredibly strong non conference wins....Arizona, Michigan and Louisville. No one around the bubble has OOC wins so good. Yet beyond that is a 30 point home win vs Vandy and a Q1 road win at Arkansas. Its is 5 wins vs teams projected in the field and they still are 7 games above 500. 4-7 in Q1, 2-1 in Q2 and 3-1 in Q2 so they are still holding on at 9-9 in Q1/2/3. Strap yourselves in Sooners....6 straight Q1 games to go and its a gauntlet...at Fla, Miss St, KY, at Ole Miss, Mizzou, at Texas. So yeah I think we will know by seasons end what their fate is.
(41) VANDERBILT 17-8: The Commodores resume may seem less in a tailspin that either Oklahoma and Georgia even as they have lost 5 of their last 6. A bit of a plus to have only 8 losses right now. The 2-7 Quad 1 mark is not so great but includes home wins over Tennessee and Kentucky. In Q2 there is a win over Texas and neutral site over TCU 4-1 in Q2 and 3-0 in Q3 at least puts them at 9-8 in Q1/2/3 which is a plus. No bad losses and yeah that 327 OOC mark is screaming foul. Yet WAB is solid right now at 36 with a SOF of 35. That gives them just enough cushion right to be above the cut line. Final 6 will be brutal what else is new...at KY, Ole Miss, at A&M, Mizzou, Arky, at Ga. Get 2 of them and they likely are okay.
(42) ARKANSAS 15-10: Not an overwhelming profile but Cal getting the Razorbacks to pull of consecutive Q1 road wins at Kentucky and Texas puts them right in the thick of things. 3-8 in Q1 shows an additional quality win neutral site over Michigan. There is an additional home win over Georgia giving them 4 wins vs schools in the field. No loss outside Q2 but yeah the 4-10 Q1/2 mark is quite messy. 4-0 in Q3 at least puts them in range at 8-10 Q1/2/3 but like everyone else in this last grouping, its going to come down to what they do in the final 6. Just 4-8 in league currently the rest of the slate...at Auburn, Mizzou, Texas, at SC, at Vandy, Miss State. Going to need to win their share.
(58) WAKE FOREST 19-7: The home loss to Fla State last week, a Q3 should have been more costly and yet the Deacons still find themselves in the field largely because they got their 2nd Q 1 win of the year vs fellow ACC bubble SMU. Now 2-6 in Quad 1, there is a neutral site win over Michigan looking better by the day. A better 5-0 in Q2 puts them at 7-6 in Q1/2 showing wins over UNC, Pitt, and at Stanford. 6-1 in Quad 3 puts them at a very solid 13-7 in Q1/2/3. It is somewhat of a similar profile to what Virginia had last year and what Pitt/Notre Dame had in previous seasons so keep an eye on that. No not overwhelming and lacking wins over any of the top 3 in league. Encouraging though is the sos stuff at 57/48. WAB/SOR at 34/33 and that is a big indicator in the positive direction right no
(39) GEORGIA 16-10: The Bulldogs have dropped 8 of their last 10 and are literally in freefall but somehow stay in the field speaks to how AT THIS TIME, its very tough to fill out the field. Not sure how much water UGA's boat can take on. There is the OOC win over St Johns looking better by the day and a fine home win over Kentucky yet that puts them at 2-10 in Q1 and in Q2 the only win of note was home win over Oklahoma. Note a loss at Arkansas. 5-10 in Q1/2 and only 8-10 vs Q1/2/3. Like the others, the Dawgs simply have to win enough down the stretch to keep their spot...last 5 starting at Auburn and home to Florida look daunting. A finish at SC, at Tex, Vandy may require that 3 game sweep.
BUBBLES OUT
(47) NORTH CAROLINA 15-11: Well the Tar Heels are finding themselves comfortable around the soft underbelly of an impressive bubble. Let's start with the obscene 1-10 Q1 mark where they can only point to a win in NYC over UCLA. They certainly scheduled tough OOC and that mark at 5 but they lost to almost everyone...Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Kansas, Michigan State plus Duke, UL, Clemson in league play. How many tries should they get. A better 5-0 in Q2 shows wins over bubbles SMU, Pitt and Dayton. 5-1 in Q3 with one point loss to Stanford which could prove costly. 10-1 in Q2/3 isnt bad. Heels are at 500 in Q1/2/3. Its just hard to take them seriously with just one win vs a team projected in the field. They only have one other Q1 shot and thats Duke. I am not sure just a win over Duke does this for them like in other seasons but I suppose if they run the table before that game and end on a 6 game win streak with 21 wins they may be closer to get in than they appear right now.
(40) SMU 19-6: That really was a costly home loss to fellow bubble Wake over the weekend. Despite the gaudy record and metrics, the quality wins just are not there and unfortunately for them only one needle moving game vs Clemson remains among the last 6 sea of ACC mediocrity. If you think UNC is bad at 1-10, while the Mustangs are 0-4. They went 0-4 vs Duke, UL, Wake, UNC. In Q2 they are 5-1 which shows a win over Pitt but they have zero wins vs teams in the field. There are some unimpressive Q2 wins vs the likes of Wa State, NC State. LSU. Quad 3 they are 9-0 and this is somewhere the committee has looked at especially from ACC schools. There are no wins of note but getting to 14-6 in Q1/2/3 among a power 5 conference will give them a look. Advice to them...win and keep winning.
(36) BYU 17-8: Seeing alot of BYU showing up in brackets the last few days and I am just not buying the Cougars yet. Strong metrics now at 36, an okay SOR of 43 yet borderline WAB at 46. I get it, its a clean profile and the Q1/2/3 mark at 11-8 seems better than alot around the bubble. 3-6 in Q1 and thats where their 2 wins vs the field reside...Baylor and at WVU. Q2 is 5-2 and while its true, the worst losses at TCU and PC are close to being Q1, I dont really find wins over Cincy, ASU, Colorado and Kansas State enough to flesh out the resume. I guess the best thing they have going for them is what they havent done rather than what they have. For me its a not tourney worth resume but it could be. Big home games with Kansas/WVU/Utah loom and the road tilts at the Arizona schools and Iowa State are brutal. The Cougars will either make their case in the next 6 or die trying.
(34) VCU 19-5: Well the A10 up to their old tricks again making braceketology so difficult by producing yet another school with a gaudy record, gaudy overall NET but lacking any depth of quality wins. To make matters worse, the Rams equallled UConn for one of the worst losses o a resume as they fell to hideous Seton Hall on a neutral court. Yup thats a Quad 4 loss where the Rams frightening have 11 wins from alone. Thats reflect in a non conference sos of 286. 1-1 in Q1 shows a win at Dayton. 5-3 in Q2 does show 4 seemingly unimpressive Q2 road wins and a neutral site over Colorado State. Can we take these wins seriously. None of them are sniffing post season. Two indicators that the Rams may be facing an uphill battle...SOR at 52 and WAB at an unhealthy 56. They are a legit threat to win the A10 tourney so they should start there. I do not think they can get an at large unless they win the A10 regular season so they will need to usurp George Mason there. They will get a chance at the Patriots on Saturday plus another game with Dayton that could help at the margins.
(74) DAYTON 17-8: Flyers have such a solid non conference resume. Wins over Marquette at home and UConn neutral site. A win over Big 10 Northwestern thrown in as well. A very solid non conference sos of 61. Yet at just 8-5 in the A10, the Flyers almost feel like an afterthought in the A10 title race between VCU (who has a net 40 spots better) and George Mason (almost no at large hopes). The Flyers went 0-2 vs those schools but also have lopsided 20 point losses to fading St Bonnies and also ran GW. There is a hideous Quad 3 loss to 192 UMass. Just 4-7 vs Q1/2. With a NET sunk by those factors, those non conference wins losing their luster over time. 5 games left...2 Q2 road games and a then a trip to VCU for a Q1 game they must win. Yet for a team that on Saturday at home avoided another bad loss to a borderline Quad 4 Duquense team by 1 point, making a run looks like a reach.
(54) XAVIER 16-10: Muskateers have a punchers shot but it probably rests on winning their last 5 which only includes one moving the needle game home to Creighton. A paltry 1-8 in Q1 that being a road win at Marquette. Solid 6-2 in Q2 with wins over UConn, serious bubble Wake Forest and Nova. There is a loss in Q2 to Georgetown they probably want back. 7-10 vs Q1/2 and 9-10 in Q1/2/3 is rather murky at the moment. Slap on 5 more there to close the season and we could talk.
(73) KANSAS STATE 13-12: The Cats sat 7-11 a few weeks ago before running off 6 straight wins which included 3 enormous Q1 wins over Kansas/Arizona and at Iowa State. A finest stretch of play you will find from any school anywhere. No shame in losing at BYU over the weekend. However the reality is they dug such a hole with so many losses that any school just one game above 500 is in deep water. 4 Q1 wins but still sub 500 on Q1/2/3 at 9-12 and that loss at Wichita State in Q3 looms large as do close occ losses to Drake/Liberty. They will simply have to keep stacking wins. Thier last 6 are a managable bunch of Q1/2s against non ncaa schools besides an all important Q1 home finale vs Iowa State. An interesting watch to see if they can pull of this miraculous comeback but they might need 5 of them.
(57) INDIANA 15-11: Hoosiers threw their hat in the ring by notching their first quality win of the year at Michigan State but came up just short at home vs UCLA in a game they just had to have. Otherwise its really hard to make a case with this resume lacking any beef. These are just some unworkable numbers....2-11 in Q1....5-11 in Q1/2. Reality is they have lost 8 of 10 and that says everything. Any hope they have involves winning out which means beating Purdue/OSU at home, beating Oregon on the road and taking care of dregs like Penn State and Washington. Yeah that is happening.
(66) USC 14-11: Trojans were definitely putting themselves in play the past few weeks but that loss at home to Minnesota is a pretty major setback right now. Its the Trojans 2nd Q3 loss and in a year where even one Q3 loss sticks out among power 5 schools having 2 is problematic. USC 3-8 vs Q1 but they include a win at Illinois and Nebraska and their best win of the year over Michigan State. Unfortunately just 2-1 in Q2 leaves them at a paltry 5-9 in Q1/2 and 8-11 in Q1/2/3. With just 6 games left and 4 tough ones on the road, they probably need 5 of these 6 but that would mean wins at Oregon, Maryland, UCLA. Not sure they are capable of it but the Trojans will make a very very attractive Crown Invitational team in Vegas.
(48) BOISE STATE 16-8: Cowboys always in the hunt for an at large find themselves in deep waters of the bubble this year where the MWC is unlikely to get more than 3 bids. For starters there are two very very good OOC wins over St Marys and Clemson. The problem is Boise is currently 0-4 vs the top 3 of the MWC plus have a loss to also ran Col State to go along with 2 ooc losses to the likes of Wash St/San Fran and while those losses are all in Q1 or 2, the Cowboys are a measly 4-7 in Q1/2. 8-7 in Q1/2/3. Throw in a Quad 4 loss to wretched Boston College. There are just better options all over the place. There are home games left with New Mexico and Utah State so to even remain on the bubble, BSU will need to win them both and avoid landmines elsewhere.
(60) SAN FRANCISCO 20-7: The weakness of the bubble suggests the Dons may have a shot. Digging deeper into the resume would say its a big longshot. Just not enough here. Yes the home win over WCC leader St Mary's was nice its their only Q1 win (1-5) and they are just 2-2 in Q2 with solid home wins over bubbles Boise and Santa Clara. Yet only 8-7 in Q1/2/3 so 12 wins in Q4 is a tough swallow. Just 3 games left...bottom feeding Pacific, a borderline Q1/2 road game at Oregon and then a home tilt with Gonzaga. Dons need all 3 just to remain on the bubble. The WCC just does not have the "feel" of a three bid league this year.
(62) UC IRVINE 21-4: AntEaters are currently tied for the Big West lead so they can legit capture the conference AQ. Their at large chances and those of projected AQ UC San Diego are pretty hazy though. The Toros might have the better case because of their better metrics and better win (Utah State). Irvine with just the 1-0 in Q1 by winning at UC San Diego and just 4-2 in Q2 which shows 3 road wins at No Iowa, Cal Northridge, and Belmont. One two many Q3 losses both on the road to Duquense and Cal Riverside might be their undoing on a resume that is just lacking despite the guady overalll mark. Need to sweep last 6 and reach the Big West finals.
(76) TCU 14-11: Horned Frogs have won 4 of 5 and one can at least see a possible path amisdt some wobbly metrics. A paltry 2-8 in Quad 1 but the one at Arizona State barely moves needle. Their other is their best win over the year over Baylor. Solid win but not high level. In Q2 there are wins over WVU, bubbles BYU, Xavier, Kansas State so those are nice to have. Yet in there are losses to Utah, Santa Clara and Colorado State. 6-11 in Q1/2 isnt good but TCU can add to that as they have 4 Q1 and 2 Q2 games left. Home game tomorrow vs Texas Tech would be an enormous get and the feather in their cap they need.
(51) PITTSBURGH 15-10: Panthers really have a lot to work to do and seem in an impossible situation with just one Q1 game (Louisville) and one Q2 road game (at NC State) in their last 6 games left. In the weak sauce ACC their resume is already a distant 4th behind 3 other league bubbles. 1-8 in Quad 1 one just a win at bubble in Ohio State. Q2 3-1 with wins over WVU and UNC (they split) puts them only 4-9 in Q1/2. Q3 5-1 with a bad home loss to Virginia does get them to 10-10 but what does that even get them. They are likely in a win out mode.
(53) VILLANOVA 15-11: Cats unlikely win over St John's revived their flickering hopes but its pretty safe to say the blowout defeat at Providence put Nova's NCAA hopes back on ice. eerre Despite a solid enough overall NET just too many bad losses here and not enough big wins to overcome them. They never seemed to recover from the loss to Quad 4 Columbia. 2 Q3 losses to Virginia and Georgetown at home plus another questionable loss to Q2 St Joes. 1-5 in Q1, a better 5-3 in Q2. The UConn win isnt as shiny and the wins over Cincy/Xavier are nice but not needle movers. 5 games left starting with a trip to UConn and a home game with Marquette. They will need to sweep those and then navigate the remaining landmines
(55) SANTA CLARA 17-10: Broncs are largely here because of a road win at Gonzaga and I suppose with a home game left vs the Zags, SC might still be a considered a fringe bubble. There are some sneaky good wins here for a midmajor...at McNeese plus neutral site over Bradley/TCU and the split with USF. Yet as I said before, WCC does not have the 3 bid feel to it and the 10-10 Q1/2/3 current mark is just too many losses including bad ones to Loyola Marymount and S Dakota State. They will need to sweep their last 4 just to breath.
(45) CINCINNATI 15-10: The NET is willling and the Q2 mark of 7-1 is interesting but beyond that this just is not a invite worthy resume. Tough to overcome 1-9 in Quad 1 and 0-0 in Q3 puts them 8-10 in Q1/2/3. There are wins over bubblicious BYU, Xavier, and Dayton but there are still no wins over any school projected in the field. For a Big 12 conference school they will have to do better than that and Im not sure they can make a resume in just the last final weeks with only 3 Q1 opportunities left including one at Houston which is a MUST WIN.
(72) UTAH 14-11: Utes 1st Q1 win of the season over Kansas keeps them in play on the way outer fringes but the reality is they are pretty much in win out mode the rest of the season to put themselves in any serious consideration. No reason to expect a 6-0 finish is coming. Nasty metrics...Q1: 1-9, Q1/2: 4-11, Q1/2/3: 6-11, 1-6 on the road, and best OOC win was Radford...nuff said.
(75) CENTRAL FLORIDA 13-12: A win at Texas Tech and non conference Texas A&M certainly picque interest but the 3-12 Q1/2 mark says everything. UCF is DOA. Losers of 6 in a row and 8 of 9 there is little reason to expect a tourney push is coming and only one Q1 opportunity left to boot.
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA, WAKE FOREST, ARKANSAS, VANDERBILT
FIRST 4 OUT: NORTH CAROLINA, SMU, BYU, VCU
MULTIPLE BID LEAGUES
SEC: 14!
Big 10: 10
Big 12: 7
ACC: 4
Big East: 4
MWC: 3
WCC: 2
