Browns hire Mets' DePodesta - moneyball comes to football

[Ataylor1989x]

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2016/01/cleveland_browns_hire_analytic.html

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...rk-mets-paul-depodesta-chief-strategy-officer

http://is.gd/wGmzjO

So now, when they're interviewing the next coach and GM, there's going to be awkward moment where they say that you have to embrace new metrics.

 

[saran]

Lots of great Browns fans - and I don't know why aside from geography.

 

[RU4Real]

During my entire tenure with the League Office we fought to introduce sabermetrics to football with the rollout of the first comprehensive Game Statistics & Information System (GSIS) in 1999. There were two challenges - first, it wasn't even a thing in baseball yet, at that point. Second, and more important, it required the acquisition of data elements that the NFLPA was DEAD set against.

My understanding is that the NFLPA caved to those data elements with GSIS 2.0, so the once impossible is now possible. It should be interesting to watch.

 

[Ataylor1989x]

What kind of data elements would the union be against? Salary? IQ tests?

 

[RU4Real]

What kind of data elements would the union be against? Salary? IQ tests?

Nope. The conversation always began and ended with us saying, "The NFL is the only professional revenue sport that does not track participation".

Think about it. Basketball, baseball, hockey, even soccer. Guy goes in, it's recorded. Guy comes out, it's recorded. It's part of the larger data picture. Not in football.

The union was against it because they felt it would give the owners unfair leverage in contract negotiations. The CBA at the time actually prohibited tracking "play time".

 

[RUaMoose]

I suspect Hoodie uses something along those lines he just keeps it close to the vest.

 

[SouthJerseyRU]

Nope. The conversation always began and ended with us saying, "The NFL is the only professional revenue sport that does not track participation".

Think about it. Basketball, baseball, hockey, even soccer. Guy goes in, it's recorded. Guy comes out, it's recorded. It's part of the larger data picture. Not in football.

The union was against it because they felt it would give the owners unfair leverage in contract negotiations. The CBA at the time actually prohibited tracking "play time".

Interesting,snap counts are now widely reported on. It helps a ton when looking at fantasy football players.

 

[RU4Real]

Interesting,snap counts are now widely reported on. It helps a ton when looking at fantasy football players.

Yeah, I think it became clear to the NFLPA at some point that there was money to be made in allowing play time to be tracked. The introduction of fantasy leagues - especially those sanctioned and thus monetized by the NFL - began to outweigh the argument that tracking play time was potentially injurious to players during contract negotiations.

At the end of the day, it's all about the money. That's why the concussion hysteria irritates me more than a little bit. The League is being vilified, but as I said the other day, the NFLPA is no less complicit, since they always had access to all of the information on head injuries that the League had. If they were so concerned about the players, you'd think they would have said something.

 

[Zak57]

During my entire tenure with the League Office we fought to introduce sabermetrics to football with the rollout of the first comprehensive Game Statistics & Information System (GSIS) in 1999. There were two challenges - first, it wasn't even a thing in baseball yet, at that point. Second, and more important, it required the acquisition of data elements that the NFLPA was DEAD set against.

My understanding is that the NFLPA caved to those data elements with GSIS 2.0, so the once impossible is now possible. It should be interesting to watch.

There were SABR leanings in baseball in 99. It just wasn't really public knowledge until Moneyball came out.

 

[RU4Real]

There were SABR leanings in baseball in 99. It just wasn't really public knowledge until Moneyball came out.

Like I said, it wasn't really "a thing" in '99. Plus, '99 was the year we actually put GSIS into production. We did the initial napkin (literally) architecture during January of '98 while at Super Bowl.

 

[Zak57]

Like I said, it wasn't really "a thing" in '99. Plus, '99 was the year we actually put GSIS into production. We did the initial napkin (literally) architecture during January of '98 while at Super Bowl.

Well the height of Moneyball was 99-2002 so it was definitely a big part already for a few teams but not many. The NFL is way behind in analytics though but that's also because it's the most difficult to quantitate because there are so many moving parts. The biggest thing for the NFL will be stats based on player tracking. First step, lineman getting a push, stuff like that. PFF which I don't put much stock into just went private so it is gaining a lot of traction finally. Very smart of you guys to realize this back in 99 though.

 

[RU4Real]

Well the height of Moneyball was 99-2002 so it was definitely a big part already for a few teams but not many. The NFL is way behind in analytics though but that's also because it's the most difficult to quantitate because there are so many moving parts. The biggest thing for the NFL will be stats based on player tracking. First step, lineman getting a push, stuff like that. PFF which I don't put much stock into just went private so it is gaining a lot of traction finally. Very smart of you guys to realize this back in 99 though.

Eh... Ya spend a month working in a hotel 12 hours every day and drinking 6 hours every night, you tend to get bored. The thing that really drove the creation of GSIS was our alliance with Stats, Inc / Elias and the emergence of the internet. By creating a data mart containing every play of every game in real time, we could monetize the outbound data feeds, which the stats vendors then used to power what we know today as "game trackers" - Yahoo's was the first.

The individual teams already had people collecting the data. What we did was create a centralized repository and a common interface so that the team stats guys were all using the same tools. Aside from the aforementioned uses, it also removed some prior "ambiguity" with respect to the data collection, since a centralized system, by definition, utilizes common taxonomy.

 

[Beancounter88]

Serious question - does it really matter to a team's finances if they go 5-11 or 8-8 or 11-5 and lose playoff game. I'm sure there are some owners that really want to win and others that just want the money and glamour of owning a team.

 

[RU4Real]

Serious question - does it really matter to a team's finances if they go 5-11 or 8-8 or 11-5 and lose playoff game. I'm sure there are some owners that really want to win and others that just want the money and glamour of owning a team.

Well, they do get extra money for post-season play. All of the revenue from venue-related activity - what the League refers to as "Blue Book Revenue" - which consists of ticket sales, venue-specific marketing (post-Jerry Jones and his successful lawsuit), parking, concessions, etc., etc., is non-distributable. So yeah, there's a definite financial gain inherent in the post-season. But aside from that, you're right - some teams care about winning more than others.

The thing that was always really interesting to me is the fact that they don't think in terms of any given season, at least not at the executive level. One of my most vivid memories is of a conversation I had with George Young one July afternoon in the office cafeteria (which, apropos of nothing, was the equivalent of a high-end NYC restaurant). I asked him, very offhandedly, what he thought of the Giants' upcoming season. They'd gone 10-5 the year before in Jim Fassel's first season. His response was "They're a .500 ball club this year. Probably next year, too. Watch for Year 3."

The Giants went 8-8 that season. They went 7-9 the year after. The year after that, they were 12-4 and went to the Super Bowl.

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

I suspect Hoodie uses something along those lines he just keeps it close to the vest.

I'm pretty sure Belicheck has a money ball guy on staff that they try to keep quiet. They also are widely known to use statistical analysis more than any other team.