Carino: 5 Questions on Rutgers before practice
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Making up for the loss of 20 points from the starting center and shooting guard will be the biggest challenge,
Team has to shoot the ball better-----pure and simple.
They do that and much of the other things fall into place.
They do that and much of the other things fall into place.
Eugene and Issa are BOTH work in progress (going off of last year). When you look at the 5 spots on the floor this is where we were the furthest behind our competitors last year. If there isn't massive improvement from either of these guys this will be a problem again in '17-'18.
If a few of the newcomers are ready to play from Day 1 look for Mike Williams to log a lot of minutes at the "3" spot.
Don't get too caught up in positions. As we saw last year, Pikiell can use his personnel based upon the matchup with the opponent. Basketball is moving towards being positionless anyway, and Pikiell this year has a little more of an ability to play that kind of basketball.
Leaving CJ out of this I see very little challenge replacing Nigel Johnson. Nigel and Corey had very similar skill sets and really weren't a good mix together on the floor. Perhaps Nigel is missed in the 8 minutes Corey is not on the floor. I think on most nights we are better without him. The 5 or 6 nights he is on obviously he is missed. The problem was you never knew what you would get out of him from an effort standpoint. That isn't a bad thing to not have any more.
Instead of calling it a "3" then we say a guy with length that can guard a perimeter player and has no problem getting shots of against a taller player and can do an adequate job at rebounding both ends.
Positions aren't black and white, they are gray. They will always be important.
This is really all it comes down to. Pikiell came pretty close to maxing out improvements where he could: Offensive rebounding went from 229th to 7th, defensive efficiency went from 235th to 69th. There's not any more progress to make there, especially with Gettys not around.
The improvement has to come from shooting the ball (Rutgers went from 312th in 15/16 to 339th in 16/17 in effective FG%) and taking care of it (236th in 15/16 to 261st in 16/17 in turnover percentage).
It's pretty obvious to me....
I expect similar defense and rebound...if not improvement
The question is....do we get better offensively both with what returns and the addition....
The answer to that will be the range in regular season record from 13-18 to 20-11....
I expect similar defense and rebound...if not improvement
The question is....do we get better offensively both with what returns and the addition....
The answer to that will be the range in regular season record from 13-18 to 20-11....
I thought the two guards were treated differently last year. They seemed to favor Sanders, and he had a longer leash I thought. I do not care to debate it much. Just a final thought on last year. I hope Johnson does very well at UVA. The majority of these players are very easy to root for, no matter what team they are on.
Nonetheless, Thiam as a long limbed player will find his way on the court. His focus, and length was a problem for opposing players last year. I think as you and others have mentioned, you will see a lot of three guards on the court. Also, you might see Baker bringing the ball up, and Sanders and him trying to mesh together as guards. Not saying Sanders is a shooting guard.
Still pulling for Sanders. I ran into Thiam on campus yesterday. What a great kid. He is always friendly. I do not think he has added a ton of weight because the staff has a plan for him.
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Easy to see why a lot is pointing to Baker. He keeps the ball above his head on release, and has great view of the basket. He will have an impact this year.I see Baker as getting 15-23 minutes a game between handling the ball, and playing off the ball. When does the program find out if MamaDou is able to play this season?
Johnson was a 20 point scorer in the B1G tournament game which Rutgers won.His inconsistency I would take on a team that lacks scoring threats. Rutgers needs scorers to be in a position to average 70 points per game which is necessary to win B1G games.
No idea why people are discounting Nigel. He was streaky last year but when he was on, we were in game that we did not expect to be in and won some others. When he was off , and Cory wasn't getting to the rim ... there was nearly NOTHING of an offensive option after that last season.
actually looking closer.
20 P5 games (18+ FSU and SHU)
11 non P5ers (8 wins automatic)
I'll revise to 11 as a worse case scenario. A 20 win regular season requires an almost .500 record in P5 games.
So much I need to see, but if I had to guess.
BASE CASE
9-2
5-15
14-17
BEAR CASE
8-3
3-17
11-20
BULL CASE
10-1
8-12
18-13
20 P5 games (18+ FSU and SHU)
11 non P5ers (8 wins automatic)
I'll revise to 11 as a worse case scenario. A 20 win regular season requires an almost .500 record in P5 games.
So much I need to see, but if I had to guess.
BASE CASE
9-2
5-15
14-17
BEAR CASE
8-3
3-17
11-20
BULL CASE
10-1
8-12
18-13
I can't view this article at work....here are my 5
1. Corey Sanders--best talent on team by far. Does he make a quantum leap forward? Does he make players around him better? Does he become a capable perimeter shooter? I think this team right now has a spot for a guy to dominate the basketball and put up big numbers. We don't have egos (I think). Think 76ers with Iverson.
2. Steve Pikiell impact in Year 2. Is last year's effort on the glass and on defense a new floor or is it a high water mark. I think too many people are taking for granted that the effort we saw last year is a given. My guess is that effort becomes more variable and not a given. The "newness" of Pikiell is gone. I sure hope I am wrong here.
3. What is Geo Baker? Looking at the non bigs I count Sanders and Williams as players I feel comfortable getting 25 minutes. I need a 3rd guy who puts the ball in the basket and earns 25+ minutes on the court. Last year Thiam and Eugene played by default. If one of those make the quantum leap it would fulfill #3. I am not expecting it. They definitely play an important role.
4. Shooting....foul and perimeter. Getting 3 point and foul shooting average adds enough points to get us over the hump in a few games.
5. The 5 position. I think Sa has the upside here, but I don't know if he has it in him to deliver 20 MPG on a day in and day out basis and be an average interior defender and play with energy 80% of the time. That would leave us with Doorson and a freshman and Freeman out of position
THINGS THAT I HAVE ASSUMED
1. Freeman and Williams will give us what they gave us last year + a little more
2. Souf Mensah gives us 10 MPG as a backup point guard and is solid (not sure why I have this given since I never saw him play?)
3. Eugene and Issa are what we saw last year with some improvement. I suppose a huge improvement here is a BIG X factor, but i don't see it
1. Corey Sanders--best talent on team by far. Does he make a quantum leap forward? Does he make players around him better? Does he become a capable perimeter shooter? I think this team right now has a spot for a guy to dominate the basketball and put up big numbers. We don't have egos (I think). Think 76ers with Iverson.
2. Steve Pikiell impact in Year 2. Is last year's effort on the glass and on defense a new floor or is it a high water mark. I think too many people are taking for granted that the effort we saw last year is a given. My guess is that effort becomes more variable and not a given. The "newness" of Pikiell is gone. I sure hope I am wrong here.
3. What is Geo Baker? Looking at the non bigs I count Sanders and Williams as players I feel comfortable getting 25 minutes. I need a 3rd guy who puts the ball in the basket and earns 25+ minutes on the court. Last year Thiam and Eugene played by default. If one of those make the quantum leap it would fulfill #3. I am not expecting it. They definitely play an important role.
4. Shooting....foul and perimeter. Getting 3 point and foul shooting average adds enough points to get us over the hump in a few games.
5. The 5 position. I think Sa has the upside here, but I don't know if he has it in him to deliver 20 MPG on a day in and day out basis and be an average interior defender and play with energy 80% of the time. That would leave us with Doorson and a freshman and Freeman out of position
THINGS THAT I HAVE ASSUMED
1. Freeman and Williams will give us what they gave us last year + a little more
2. Souf Mensah gives us 10 MPG as a backup point guard and is solid (not sure why I have this given since I never saw him play?)
3. Eugene and Issa are what we saw last year with some improvement. I suppose a huge improvement here is a BIG X factor, but i don't see it
Sa was flat out invisible last year so the prospect of him starting and being counted on for major minutes is a scary thought right now. Johnson better be able to contribute right away or we are in deep poop.
To me, there is only one question that answers how this season will go...
Does Corey elevate his game to the next level?
He is a game changing talent and if he makes the "jump" like so many college players have when they become upperclassman, it'll overshadow most other question marks.
Does Corey elevate his game to the next level?
He is a game changing talent and if he makes the "jump" like so many college players have when they become upperclassman, it'll overshadow most other question marks.
Solid point. Adding to it, how hard is it to make that jump? I am a huge fan of Sanders, even after he has shown he is about himself, etc. They are still so easy to root for. I will say, I saw a video where Sanders was trying to facilitate more, and he looked very lost. The video was from the Adidas nationals. He was thinking so much, and I think forcing him into a position where he may not be suited might not be the best thing for him. Still, I think his shooting is improved. Seeing him as a true point might be a hard jump at this point. He is a scoring guard. Trying to make him a pg over the summer seemed to have tripped him up.
I think his shooting improves a little. The mental aspect, it takes dedicated practice. I am not sure if you see his decision making improve vastly, especially when Sanders has spent a lot of time away from the Rutgers program at the end of last year, and over the summer. His best chance to improve was here under great coaches, and role models. Get the right advice,etc.
I am pulling for him. My brother works for Rutgers, and saw Sanders yesterday. He wished Sanders a great season and said Sanders replied, " We finna turn up this year." Same energy as always. Good luck, Sanders.
Moreover, it is hard to say it will be just one question. No one player deserves that load. I think if Baker can contribute 7 ppg, the team overall gets their free throwing shooting up to near .640, and Sa/Johnson can compliment each other and be efficient, the team can increase their wins this year to maybe 18 wins. Gettys shot free throws really well, and that will be hard to replace. The team overall shoots free throws at a pretty low level.
Sanders makes some more shots,increases his percentages. but it is hard to say he will become a better point guard, and make great decisions.
Don't underestimate what senioritis can achieve with a couple of hungry guys in mike and deshawn.
Nigel was ON FIRE after he returned and was the reason we won some games end season and certainly OSU in round 1 of tourney.
I posted an analysis of Nigel Johnson's performance last year. Here is what I posted:
"Johnson was NOT RU's best scorer in "many" games. He had 4-5 games where he was RU's top or best scorer.
He WAS hot towards the end of the season, true enough. In particular, he was 10-13 or 11-14 from 3 in TWO games towards the end of the year. While of course those games count, without those 2 en fuego from 3-point range games, Johnson would have shot under 30% from 3-point range.
I counted 2-3 games RU won because of Johnson's scoring ... but also 5-7 games RU LOST because Johnson was either no factor or a negative factor. I do not want to check again, but I think Johnson had more games with fewer than 8 points than he had with more than 15 points.
And in at least 4-5 games he was benched for much of the game because of lazy and even worse defense, and played fewer than 10 minutes each in those games as a result.
Johnson was a terrific athlete, but a poor decision-maker and a very streaky shooter ... and kept trying to drive into the paint against Big Ten competition and the host of 6'8" to 7'0" players at only 6'0" himself. Yes, there will be games RU might miss his streaky shooting, but improved shooting from Thiam, improved finishing from Omoruyi, improvement from Sanders and Williams, and Baker giving RU ANYTHING positive might more than make up for that."
In June, Pikiell said Thiam had gained 11 pounds since the end of the season. Has he kept those pounds on? That I don't know.
do your same analysis after he came back. what was his average and shooting % from 3.
As for Johnson, he had 8 games over 15 ppg and 8 games less than 8 ppg. I think Jelly wrote a good summary of Nigel's season. I hope he can do well at Virginia but they supposedly have at least two other very good guards. He just might be the third guard.
Which is perfect. He was our best on ball defender, when he wanted to. He will be in a system that is defense first and he will be needed as a spark off the bench. I can see him prospering there. I could also see the oppposite.
For a bad team to get good, it is more often an influx of new talent than improvement from the guys who made up a bottom shelf B1G team last year. I'm counting on Marmaduke and Geo to have a big impact.
ok, I'll answer my own question. after coming back:
Nigel shot 39 of 92 overall (42.4%) and 20/41 from three (48.8%) last 9 games.
but last 7 games (not just 2)..he shot 36/77 for (46.7%) and 20 of 35 (57.1%) from three.
I'm just saying the kid got it going late and IF that was the real Nigel...not easy to replace. NOBODY on the team came close to shooting like that from the outside.
But water under the bridge right now so we'll see.
Several people have already pointed it put but I will repeat it. The way Pike gets these guys to defend and rebound we can play with anyone on any given night. The key to winning, as several have said, boils down to shooting. If this team shoots the ball well it will win.
And he was 5-7 from 3-point range in RU's last game - a 22 point loss (the last of his last 7-game stretch).
And 5-6 from 3-point range in the FIRST game of his last 7-game stretch - in a 19 point loss.
In other words, in his 2 best shooting games of the season, RU lost by 19 and 22 points, respectively ... in other words, Nigel Johnson made no difference at all in those games.
By my calculation, Johnson's scoring made a key difference (i.e. RU would have LOST without his good shooting and play) in just 2 games all season: @Stony Brook (21 points, terrific shooting from 2-point, 3-point and FT line) - a 5 point win; vs Ohio State in the Big Ten play-offs (his 21 points led RU, 5-11 overall shooting, 3-6 from 3 and 8-8 FT). Both those wins were important, of course, so credit to Nigel Johnson.
On the other hand, if you look at close games RU LOST ... Johnson's lack of good play was often a big factor:
1) @Miami - RU lost by 12 - and needed very good guard play, since Miami had very athletic guards. Johnson was over-matched, played just 18 minutes, and shot 2-9 FG, 0-3 3-pointers. Johnson was not the only factor (RU's lack of rebounding vs Miami was a bigger factor), but his poor play was A key factor.
2) @PSU - RU lost by 13 in one of its worst performances of the season, and many players did poorly, as RU shot just 29% from the field, and was 3-20 from 3-point range. Johnson WAS one of the worst RU players in this game, however: 1-8 FG, 0-3 3-pointers. This was a game Sanders was not allowed to start - and Mike Williams did go 5-17 FG and 3-10 3-pointers ... but a 12-14 point game by Johnson would have made a big difference.
3) Home vs Northwestern - RU played a close game, had a shot down only 4 or 6 points with 4-5 minutes left, lost by 9 points. Johnson was 2-14 FG, 0-5 from 3 ... Even a mediocre performance by Johnson here and RU likely wins the game.
4) vs Wisconsin in MSG - RU lost in OT, should have won in regulation. Johnson scored 13 points - true enough - which helped RU. But he shot 3-12 FG and 1-4 from 3 point range. Maybe this does not belong on this list ... but 3-12 is poor.
5) @Ohio State - RU lost by 6 points, and had a real shot to win this one. Johnson was so poor both offensively and defensively, he only got 17 minutes. In those 17 minutes he shot 1-5 FG, 0-2 3-pointers. Again, even a mediocre Johnson and RU wins this game.
6) @Minnesota - a 9-point loss. Defense was the larger problem in this game, not Johnson. But Johnson's defense was pretty poor in this game. He was 2-6 FG and 0-3 3-pointers, with just 4 points, however.
Johnson DID play well enough to help RU be very competitive in several losses: SHU, @Iowa, @Maryland, 2nd Northwestern game, @Michigan.
RU did beat Illinois, late in the season, with essentially zero contribution from Johnson, in just 13 minutes of play.
By my count, Johnson helped RU win 2 games, where without his performance, RU would have lost. And he played well enough in 5 other games where RU lost, but his positive contributions were important allowing RU to lose competitively. On the other hand, his VERY poor performances COST RU the chances at 6 wins in close losses.
I am not saying Johnson will not be missed - he might be missed a lot. But his uneven performances cost RU more win opportunities than he gained RU in actual wins - 3 times as many opportunities lost than wins gained. Who is to say Baker, plus improvement from Omoruyi and Thiam, and maybe even Sanders, do not MORE than make up for the loss of Johnson.
never said he was good early season. nope. Glad he was benched and showed what he could do when he came back. To say that those end season performances didn't matter cause we lost anyway.....well when the rest of the team's play sucks, you're right. But to suggest those big games don't matter..cause the team lost. OK, then if they don't replace the points they can lose by 40.
Never said he was a 1 man team. Just the best damn shooter and scorer down the stretch. RU has had trouble scoring and shooting for years now. Hard to say you won't miss a guy who shot like that end season...UNLESS...we finally found guys who can score now. We'll see.
Well ... we will have to agree to disagree ... I see it a little differently. I see him costing RU 4-6 games, while only helping RU win 2 games. That is a bad risk-reward relationship, which a good coach should be able to substitute for through development of returning players and addition of new players.
So Nigel shooting poorly cost RU chances to win those games?
How did the other guys on our team shoot in those close games?
Did anyone else have a bad shooting night?
Or just Johnson?
If others did too (which I am sure is the case because NO ONE could shoot well on that team), why are you pinning those losses on Nigel?
You sound like a lawyer!
lol
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