Comparing stats (2021-2023) against just Big 10 competition

[DJ Spanky]

So I've felt that the overall season stats including all games don't tell the whole story. We may have one or two powderpuffs in a season (Wagner, BC, Delaware, Syracuse, etc.) which heavily skew the stats. To rectify this I crunched the numbers to come up with the average stats against Big 10 competition for the last 3 seasons. I didn't go back to 2020 because I fell the whole Covid thing really invalidated those results. I also included Ash's last year, 2019, to give a bit of context of where we came from.

Average O(Rush/Pass/Total) D(Rush/Pass/Total) Delta
2019 O(117/92/209) D(202/248/450) - Delta 241
2021 O(139/150/290) D(179/257/436) - Delta 146
2022 O(95/158/253) D(180/206/386) - Delta 133
2023 O(134/136/270) D(153/185/338) - Delta 68

Average Pts(Scored/Allowed/Delta)
2019 Pts(4.6/39.4/34.8)
2021 Pts(13.7/29.0/15.3)
2022 Pts(11.7/34.3/22.6)
2023 Pts(16.4/25.1/8.7)

 

[gef21]

So I've felt that the overall season stats including all games don't tell the whole story. We may have one or two powderpuffs in a season (Wagner, BC, Delaware, Syracuse, etc.) which heavily skew the stats. To rectify this I crunched the numbers to come up with the average stats against Big 10 competition for the last 3 seasons. I didn't go back to 2020 because I fell the whole Covid thing really invalidated those results. I also included Ash's last year, 2019, to give a bit of context of where we came from.

Average O(Rush/Pass/Total) D(Rush/Pass/Total) Delta
2019 O(117/92/209) D(202/248/450) - Delta 241
2021 O(139/150/290) D(179/257/436) - Delta 146
2022 O(95/158/253) D(180/206/386) - Delta 133
2023 O(134/136/270) D(153/185/338) - Delta 68

Average Pts(Scored/Allowed/Delta)
2019 Pts(4.6/39.4/34.8)
2021 Pts(13.7/29.0/15.3)
2022 Pts(11.7/34.3/22.6)
2023 Pts(16.4/25.1/8.7)

Careful. People don't like facts here.

 

[satnom]

So I've felt that the overall season stats including all games don't tell the whole story. We may have one or two powderpuffs in a season (Wagner, BC, Delaware, Syracuse, etc.) which heavily skew the stats. To rectify this I crunched the numbers to come up with the average stats against Big 10 competition for the last 3 seasons. I didn't go back to 2020 because I fell the whole Covid thing really invalidated those results. I also included Ash's last year, 2019, to give a bit of context of where we came from.

Average O(Rush/Pass/Total) D(Rush/Pass/Total) Delta
2019 O(117/92/209) D(202/248/450) - Delta 241
2021 O(139/150/290) D(179/257/436) - Delta 146
2022 O(95/158/253) D(180/206/386) - Delta 133
2023 O(134/136/270) D(153/185/338) - Delta 68

Average Pts(Scored/Allowed/Delta)
2019 Pts(4.6/39.4/34.8)
2021 Pts(13.7/29.0/15.3)
2022 Pts(11.7/34.3/22.6)
2023 Pts(16.4/25.1/8.7)

Just to add to your computations:

2019 - No Bowl
2020 - No Bowl
2021 - Bowl Invite (Gator) Based On Circumstances
2022 - No Bowl
2023 - Pinstripe

GO RU

 

[jtung230]

So I've felt that the overall season stats including all games don't tell the whole story. We may have one or two powderpuffs in a season (Wagner, BC, Delaware, Syracuse, etc.) which heavily skew the stats. To rectify this I crunched the numbers to come up with the average stats against Big 10 competition for the last 3 seasons. I didn't go back to 2020 because I fell the whole Covid thing really invalidated those results. I also included Ash's last year, 2019, to give a bit of context of where we came from.

Average O(Rush/Pass/Total) D(Rush/Pass/Total) Delta
2019 O(117/92/209) D(202/248/450) - Delta 241
2021 O(139/150/290) D(179/257/436) - Delta 146
2022 O(95/158/253) D(180/206/386) - Delta 133
2023 O(134/136/270) D(153/185/338) - Delta 68

Average Pts(Scored/Allowed/Delta)
2019 Pts(4.6/39.4/34.8)
2021 Pts(13.7/29.0/15.3)
2022 Pts(11.7/34.3/22.6)
2023 Pts(16.4/25.1/8.7)

Maybe you should strip out the good games and give us only the bad games. Just so it’s a fair comparison.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Careful. People don't like facts here.

What's most disturbing is that in 2019, the lowest margin of loss was 21 points (last game against State Penn), and we got shutout 4 times out of 9 games.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It seems pretty arbitrary to classify Cuse 2021 with Wagner and Delaware. I mean - they weren’t great, but that team wasn’t worse than some of the Indiana and Illinois teams your including.

They went 5-7. Lost in OT to ranked Wake (who we played in Gator bowl). Lost by 3 to 10-3 Clemson.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

It seems pretty arbitrary to classify Cuse 2021 with Wagner and Delaware. I mean - they weren’t great, but that team wasn’t worse than some of the Indiana and Illinois teams your including.

They went 5-7. Lost in OT to ranked Wake (who we played in Gator bowl). Lost by 3 to 10-3 Clemson.

He's not "classifying" them as anything OTHER THAN non-conference opponents. Absolutely NOTHING wrong with doing so.




Funny because we have posters posters (the SAME ones over and over and over again...) who ignore FACTS like "we played BCS #'s 7, 10, and 17 in the last 4 weeks of the season"...OR they say that playing the....NOW GET THIS....#'s:

1, 2, 3, 5, 13, 24, 31 and 34 TOTAL D's NATIONALLY this past year (something I'll bet NO other team did....)

...."doesn't mean much because the offenses in this conference stink!"

No, it means A LOT, and your response is pathetic.

*** no offense to you; haven't seen you try to pull this crap

 

[AreYouNUTS]

BTW - @DJ Spanky the lack of responses to both here, and on The RT, speaks volumes IMHO.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

He's not "classifying" them as anything OTHER THAN non-conference opponents. Absolutely NOTHING wrong with doing so.




Funny because we have posters posters (the SAME ones over and over and over again...) who ignore FACTS like "we played BCS #'s 7, 10, and 17 in the last 4 weeks of the season"...OR they say that playing the....NOW GET THIS....#'s:

1, 2, 3, 5, 13, 24, 31 and 34 TOTAL D's NATIONALLY this past year (something I'll bet NO other team did....)

...."doesn't mean much because the offenses in this conference stink!"

No, it means A LOT, and your response is pathetic.

*** no offense to you; haven't seen you try to pull this crap

That’s just stupid. Virginia Tech is a real team. The stats should count in assesssing the team if the purpose of weeding out is to strip out cupcake data as the OP implied.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

That’s just stupid. Virginia Tech is a real team. The stats should count in assesssing the team if the purpose of weeding out is to strip out cupcake data as the OP implied.

You're still missing the point: THIS THREAD, and the #'s the OP compiled, are about CONFERENCE games. That's it! Feel free to the same for ALL games, if you'd like, right?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You're still missing the point: THIS THREAD, and the #'s the OP compiled, are about CONFERENCE games. That's it! Feel free to the same for ALL games, if you'd like, right?

No - an analysis of all games wouldn’t address the OP’s stated point in his original post. He specifically said games like Wagner and such skew the data - and that’s the reason he’s only looking at BIG games.

My point is considering how few football games there are period, eliminating the 3 games against ACC teams that we won ( 2 on the road) is obviously going to skew the data in a negative way.

 

[Skull83]

I must be missing something, don't the OP's stats show real improvement this season? How is that a bad thing?

 

[DJ Spanky]

It seems pretty arbitrary to classify Cuse 2021 with Wagner and Delaware.

Including our old rivals BC and the Rotting Fruit as powderpuff games was a joke. My point was to strip out non-conference games to show how we had progressed within the conference, particularly since we play the same 6 teams every year.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

I must be missing something, don't the OP's stats show real improvement this season? How is that a bad thing?

It's not. God forbid, however, he doesn't include ALL games when he literally set out to do "CONFERENCE GAMES" only lol...You'd think we were in the AAC or something....NO.....we're in the 2nd best football conference, arguably BEST division, IN THE NATIOIN!!!!

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Including our old rivals BC and the Rotting Fruit as powderpuff games was a joke. My point was to strip out non-conference games to show how we had progressed within the conference, particularly since we play the same 6 teams every year.

Thank you. The dude that screamed at me for disagreeing with you tried to say that wasn’t your point and you were just looking at BIG data. I disagree - and believe these ACC match ups are real games and winning them against local schools shows signs of progress. Very important to factor them in to any assessment of the program.

Also - Syracuse was close to middle of the pack BIg Level in 2021. They played a tough ACC slate of mostly ranked teams to go 5-7. BC had a lot of injuries and didn’t have a good year in 2022 but to say that wasn’t a real game on the road is just arbitrary. If we drop BC win and pull out the Nebraska win in 2022 the overall view of the season doesn’t change one bit.

 

[RUSK97]

So I've felt that the overall season stats including all games don't tell the whole story. We may have one or two powderpuffs in a season (Wagner, BC, Delaware, Syracuse, etc.) which heavily skew the stats. To rectify this I crunched the numbers to come up with the average stats against Big 10 competition for the last 3 seasons. I didn't go back to 2020 because I fell the whole Covid thing really invalidated those results. I also included Ash's last year, 2019, to give a bit of context of where we came from.

Average O(Rush/Pass/Total) D(Rush/Pass/Total) Delta
2019 O(117/92/209) D(202/248/450) - Delta 241
2021 O(139/150/290) D(179/257/436) - Delta 146
2022 O(95/158/253) D(180/206/386) - Delta 133
2023 O(134/136/270) D(153/185/338) - Delta 68

Average Pts(Scored/Allowed/Delta)
2019 Pts(4.6/39.4/34.8)
2021 Pts(13.7/29.0/15.3)
2022 Pts(11.7/34.3/22.6)
2023 Pts(16.4/25.1/8.7)

So what you're saying is we're going the wrong way...

 

[jtung230]

So what you're saying is we're going the wrong way...

Just the opposite. Sorry to disappoint you

 

[DJ Spanky]

So what you're saying is we're going the wrong way...

Definitely going the wrong way for a number of people on this board who want to see Schiano fail.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Definitely going the wrong way for a number of people on this board who want to see Schiano fail.

If you stick only the VTech stats back in, I’m sure this year would look even better.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

it takes a "special" kinda someone to:

- come up with multiple new monikers on a weekly basis (for a couple of years) and

- follow around certain posters to add "angry faces" to every one of their posts, all while "liking" every, single post that disagrees or simply offers a differing viewpoint

S....P....E....C....I....A....L

 

[DJ Spanky]

If you stick only the VTech stats back in, I’m sure this year would look even better.

Again, I'm not going to cherry pick stats to make things look better or worse. I'm trying to show results against a relatively consistent base.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Again, I'm not going to cherry pick stats to make things look better or worse. I'm trying to show results against a relatively consistent base.

I get that - all I’m saying is that in my opinion, VTech and Syracuse are more consistently based to the BIG team schedule than they are to the rest of our OOC field (especially looking out to the future now that we’re not playing Michigan and OSU every year).

 

[RUevolution36]

I get that - all I’m saying is that in my opinion, VTech and Syracuse are more consistently based to the BIG team schedule than they are to the rest of our OOC field (especially looking out to the future now that we’re not playing Michigan and OSU every year).

then you don't understand normalizing the dataset. future is a different story. what we have now is concrete retrospective data. eliminate the variables of OOC opponents. its a measurement of how we stack up against our conference peers. The defense has made great strides against our peers. It has made pretty significant improvement from an offensive perspective, however, it has to be considered that we are starting from basically zero offense to one that can put a few points on the board. the ppg margin is shrinking, meaning we are more competitive. next step is for it to be equal, then positive.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

then you don't understand normalizing the dataset. future is a different story. what we have now is concrete retrospective data. eliminate the variables of OOC opponents. its a measurement of how we stack up against our conference peers. The defense has made great strides against our peers. It has made pretty significant improvement from an offensive perspective, however, it has to be considered that we are starting from basically zero offense to one that can put a few points on the board. the ppg margin is shrinking, meaning we are more competitive. next step is for it to be equal, then positive.

That’s fine. If the OP just said we’re normalizing to look only at how did against our conference peers I wouldn’t have said what I did. I responded specifically to the explanation in the original post that said the purpose was to weed out stats vs. cupcakes (such as Syracuse, Delaware, Wagner, to be exact). VTech is better than Indiana and Michigan State. And they are a lot more comparable to Maryland, NW and Wisconsin than they are to Wagner, Delaware and Temple. Syracuse was better than quite a few BIG teams in 2021 too. That is all.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Apparently you didn't read far enough:

I crunched the numbers to come up with the average stats against Big 10 competition for the last 3 seasons.

Or read the title:

Comparing stats (2021-2023) against just Big 10 competition

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Apparently you didn't read far enough:



Or read the title:

You still said the reason was to remove cream puffs like Syracuse. Why is it unacceptable for me to respond to that? You posted it

 

[DJ Spanky]

You still said the reason was to remove cream puffs like Syracuse. Why is it unacceptable for me to respond to that? You posted it

You really need to get a sense of humor:

We may have one or two powderpuffs in a season (Wagner, BC, Delaware, Syracuse, etc.) which heavily skew the stats.

I already explained that:

Including our old rivals BC and the Rotting Fruit as powderpuff games was a joke.

And, to reinforce my 2 statements above in the post above yours, I also added this:

My point was to strip out non-conference games to show how we had progressed within the conference, particularly since we play the same 6 teams every year.

Is it really that hard to understand, or do you just like to bicker?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You really need to get a sense of humor:



I already explained that:

And, to reinforce my 2 statements above in the post above yours, I also added this:



Is it really that hard to understand, or do you just like to bicker?

I was to responding to RUevolution - not you. I.e. explaining why I made the comment originally. That’s all.

Your OP did not indicate that the reference was a joke - that was in a later response so it wasn’t that I didn’t read the whole thing when I first commented. Sadly - it’s far from a given on this particular board that a post like that would be intended as a joke. we have a huge contingency of “hate Schiano at all costs fans” who would make a serious comment like that in an effort to derail our 9-0 non-conference record since his return.