Obviously, like many, I am at least somewhat dispirited at how the season is unfolding. There are many reasons, of course, which include:
1) I was appalled at the August arrests - appalled on behalf of the hit to the reputation of Rutgers, and also extremely worried about the affect on RU's defense (I believed graduating Nova was a HUGE hit to the expected 2015 performance of the team, and that an improved defense was the only way to offset that).
2) I was disappointed with the MEDIA fire about Flood's intervention in the Barnwell grades situation. Should there have been some disciplinary action? Yes. Should there have been a THREE game suspension? Ridiculous ... only at Rutgers, and not because of higher standards but because of bowing to media pressure. A warning, a fine and probation would have been much more appropriate ... or a MAXIMUM of a 1-game suspension. I have not seen ANY other school - P5 or otherwise - discipline their coach to this extent for much more serious breaches of school rules. And the timing was awful also. Sure, I get the investigation was going on during August ... but are you telling me the people involved could not be reached? Bull donkey. By the way, the employee who leaked the news of the investigation should be fired ... period. He or she is not protected by whistle-blower rules, since the event had already been reported and the investigation was underway. Leaking to the media that an investigation was underway, and what the issues were is not whistle-blowing. Oh ... and the RU Faculty Committee or Union should be publicly disciplined for releasing in their statements what Barnwell's grades were, which had not been released by any other source ... those grades are private - or should have been. Is it not equally awful that the RU Faculty Union is releasing students' grades publicly?
3) I was very disappointed in the Caroo situation: Both his actions (he should NEVER have put himself in that situation), but also the actions of the police, who appear to have disproportionately landed on one side of the equation in ways that do not appear to be justified. Unfortunately, this now has to just play out legally. Rutgers has no choice.
4) I was unhappy with the outcome of the Washington State game, a winnable game ... But games sometimes hinge on 1 or 2 plays ... Jacobs played the ball perfectly on that last drive, and had he held onto he ball (as he should have), the game is over, RU wins, and everyone is happier. And what a play by the WSU receiver to come up with that ball after the tip! RU did not play poorly that game, and the offense improved throughout the game, as the game went on.
5) I did not watch the Penn State game (was out that night), and will not watch it ever, I do not think. RU was obviously manhandled, which is an unhappy occurrence. And was unable to attack a weak PSU OL. Laviano was unable to, or chose not to, throw downfield (bad play calling, bad arm, bad OL, no Caroo or all of the above?). I would have thought RU had a chance to win this game, and it is disappointing to not even compete closely. There is NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER the team HAD to be negatively affected by the series of body blows: The August arrests, the coach suspension 2 days before the game, the Caroo arrest (and loss of RU's best player).
6) I am somewhat disappointed Rettig either did not "win" the QB job, or was selected. Laviano has not been bad, and even has been relatively solid. But I would have liked to see the upside of Rettig. That said, I do not question the coaching staff too much on this: They see the practices. I AM however, VERY unhappy that Rettig has not been given ONE series each half ... let's say the 1st drive of the 2nd quarter and the 1st drive of the 3rd quarter, in each game REGARDLESS of game situation. This would not "challenge" Laviano as the starter, would not alter the "we have ONE starting QB" philosophy, but would provide the back-up - who has essentially the same experience level as the starter - with some game experience, and provide a legitimate comparison in case the starter has an off game, or does not improve.
But what should be RU's fans' expectations, both going into the season, post the August arrests, and now?
To start, look at the RU team expected to take the field in 2015 after the 2014 season ended:
1) RU had just FOUR (4) starters returning on offense: James (coming back from an ACL, his 2nd ACL surgery), Lumpkin, Muller and Caroo. Maybe Patton, though I am not sure he started any game in 2014. RU graduated/lost a 4-year starter at QB, a 3-year starter at FB (a GREAT blocker), a 2-3 year starter at TE and 3 starting OL. There were a number of posters on this Board who believed either Laviano or Rettig would actually be an improvement over Nova, but that was always, frankly, an idiotic and uninformed opinion.
2) RU had just FIVE (5) starters returning on defense: Mera at E, Hamilton at 3-Tech, Gause at Sam, Longa at Will and Barnwell at CB. Sure, many of us (myself included) believed that replacement at Safety and MLB would result in IMPROVEMENTS in the defense.
So, what should have been RU's fans' proper expectations coming into 2015?
So, from a team that surprised many in 2014, and won all but one close games, the veteran QB, 3 OL, the starting TE, the top 2 NT's, the starting MLB, a 2-year starter at the R position and 3 starting DB's were gone. In order to even win 6 or 7 games in 2015, which I definitely thought possible, RU needed THREE things critically, in my opinion:
Consider this, Coming out of the Spring, here are RU's expected starters:
Offense: Laviano OR Rettig, James, Bergen, Arciadacono, Lumpkin, Miller, Muller, Denman, (unknown Center), Caroo and Patton.
Defense: Mera, Turay, Hamilton, Joseph, Gause, Lewis, Longa, Barnwell, Boggs, Stephenson, Hester or Jacobs.
So ... consider this, by the Kansas game, between injuries, suspensions and other issues, here is RU's team:
1) Starters returning from 2014: SIX (6), TOTAL, Offense and Defense: THREE on offense (James, Lumpkin and Muller) and THREE on defense (Mera, Gause and Longa).
2) Starters versus expected starters in the Spring: FIFTEEN (15) current starters versus what would have been expected in the Spring ... please name me a team that had THAT level of attrition merely from the Spring! The different starts versus Spring expectations: Flanagan over Arciadacono, Agudosi instead of the suspended Caroo, Lambert instead of the injured Turay, JPO over the injured Hamilton, freshmen Austin and Wharton over the suspended Barnwell and Boggs, and Cioffi over the suspended Stephenson.
On top of that, James should not be starting, frankly. Hicks is better right now, and so is Martin. James just lacks the explosion that has been one of his great assets prior to the latest knee surgery.
It is devastating to the team, both from an on-field performance standpoint, as well as from a MENTAL standpoint, to lose the best returning offensive player and captain, Caroo, and the best returning defensive player and captain, Hamilton. Plus, of course, losing 3/4 of your expected starting defensive backfield.
So, consider this ... what would be your expectations if you were told that RU would return just 6 starters form 2014, and would have to replace your 2 best offensive players (Nova and Caroo), your best defensive player (Hamilton), ALL FOUR starting DB's, and have your expected 3rd best returning defensive player (Turay) limited by injury?
At this stage, I still strongly believe RU has a chance at 5 wins, but I see no realistic path to more than 5 wins, and 3-4 wins seem more likely unless the OL, WR's and QB improve dramatically over the course of the season.
On the other hand ... 2016 looks potentially bright.
1) RU will return ALL its best offensive players other than Lumpkin and Caroo (if Caroo plays in 2015 at all) ... In fact, RU will return 20 of its 22 players on the TWO-deep on offense
2) Assuming Hamilton returns, RU will return 8 of 11 starters on defense, and 19 of 22 players on its defensive 2-deep,
3) Overall, RU will return 17 starters out of 22, and 39 of 44 on its 2-deep.
4) Due to redshirts, RU will have greater depth at WR, TE, DL, OL, at least. Plus some other injured players may return, especially at LB and DE.
5) RU drops Wisconsin and Nebraska as cross-over games, and adds Illinois and Minnesota .. and then Iowa also (may be very good, of course).
1) I was appalled at the August arrests - appalled on behalf of the hit to the reputation of Rutgers, and also extremely worried about the affect on RU's defense (I believed graduating Nova was a HUGE hit to the expected 2015 performance of the team, and that an improved defense was the only way to offset that).
2) I was disappointed with the MEDIA fire about Flood's intervention in the Barnwell grades situation. Should there have been some disciplinary action? Yes. Should there have been a THREE game suspension? Ridiculous ... only at Rutgers, and not because of higher standards but because of bowing to media pressure. A warning, a fine and probation would have been much more appropriate ... or a MAXIMUM of a 1-game suspension. I have not seen ANY other school - P5 or otherwise - discipline their coach to this extent for much more serious breaches of school rules. And the timing was awful also. Sure, I get the investigation was going on during August ... but are you telling me the people involved could not be reached? Bull donkey. By the way, the employee who leaked the news of the investigation should be fired ... period. He or she is not protected by whistle-blower rules, since the event had already been reported and the investigation was underway. Leaking to the media that an investigation was underway, and what the issues were is not whistle-blowing. Oh ... and the RU Faculty Committee or Union should be publicly disciplined for releasing in their statements what Barnwell's grades were, which had not been released by any other source ... those grades are private - or should have been. Is it not equally awful that the RU Faculty Union is releasing students' grades publicly?
3) I was very disappointed in the Caroo situation: Both his actions (he should NEVER have put himself in that situation), but also the actions of the police, who appear to have disproportionately landed on one side of the equation in ways that do not appear to be justified. Unfortunately, this now has to just play out legally. Rutgers has no choice.
4) I was unhappy with the outcome of the Washington State game, a winnable game ... But games sometimes hinge on 1 or 2 plays ... Jacobs played the ball perfectly on that last drive, and had he held onto he ball (as he should have), the game is over, RU wins, and everyone is happier. And what a play by the WSU receiver to come up with that ball after the tip! RU did not play poorly that game, and the offense improved throughout the game, as the game went on.
5) I did not watch the Penn State game (was out that night), and will not watch it ever, I do not think. RU was obviously manhandled, which is an unhappy occurrence. And was unable to attack a weak PSU OL. Laviano was unable to, or chose not to, throw downfield (bad play calling, bad arm, bad OL, no Caroo or all of the above?). I would have thought RU had a chance to win this game, and it is disappointing to not even compete closely. There is NO DOUBT WHATSOEVER the team HAD to be negatively affected by the series of body blows: The August arrests, the coach suspension 2 days before the game, the Caroo arrest (and loss of RU's best player).
6) I am somewhat disappointed Rettig either did not "win" the QB job, or was selected. Laviano has not been bad, and even has been relatively solid. But I would have liked to see the upside of Rettig. That said, I do not question the coaching staff too much on this: They see the practices. I AM however, VERY unhappy that Rettig has not been given ONE series each half ... let's say the 1st drive of the 2nd quarter and the 1st drive of the 3rd quarter, in each game REGARDLESS of game situation. This would not "challenge" Laviano as the starter, would not alter the "we have ONE starting QB" philosophy, but would provide the back-up - who has essentially the same experience level as the starter - with some game experience, and provide a legitimate comparison in case the starter has an off game, or does not improve.
But what should be RU's fans' expectations, both going into the season, post the August arrests, and now?
To start, look at the RU team expected to take the field in 2015 after the 2014 season ended:
1) RU had just FOUR (4) starters returning on offense: James (coming back from an ACL, his 2nd ACL surgery), Lumpkin, Muller and Caroo. Maybe Patton, though I am not sure he started any game in 2014. RU graduated/lost a 4-year starter at QB, a 3-year starter at FB (a GREAT blocker), a 2-3 year starter at TE and 3 starting OL. There were a number of posters on this Board who believed either Laviano or Rettig would actually be an improvement over Nova, but that was always, frankly, an idiotic and uninformed opinion.
2) RU had just FIVE (5) starters returning on defense: Mera at E, Hamilton at 3-Tech, Gause at Sam, Longa at Will and Barnwell at CB. Sure, many of us (myself included) believed that replacement at Safety and MLB would result in IMPROVEMENTS in the defense.
So, what should have been RU's fans' proper expectations coming into 2015?
So, from a team that surprised many in 2014, and won all but one close games, the veteran QB, 3 OL, the starting TE, the top 2 NT's, the starting MLB, a 2-year starter at the R position and 3 starting DB's were gone. In order to even win 6 or 7 games in 2015, which I definitely thought possible, RU needed THREE things critically, in my opinion:
a) Health
b) The new OL to gel quickly
c) Solid QB development
Of those three, if you include under "health" players showing up and able to play (i.e. include the arrests as the equivalent of injuries), RU has only had ONE of those 3 items clearly occur: "C," QB development (yes, with all the criticism of Laviano and the decision to start him over Rettig, some of which is justified in my opinion, he HAS developed reasonably, in my opinion).b) The new OL to gel quickly
c) Solid QB development
Consider this, Coming out of the Spring, here are RU's expected starters:
Offense: Laviano OR Rettig, James, Bergen, Arciadacono, Lumpkin, Miller, Muller, Denman, (unknown Center), Caroo and Patton.
Defense: Mera, Turay, Hamilton, Joseph, Gause, Lewis, Longa, Barnwell, Boggs, Stephenson, Hester or Jacobs.
So ... consider this, by the Kansas game, between injuries, suspensions and other issues, here is RU's team:
1) Starters returning from 2014: SIX (6), TOTAL, Offense and Defense: THREE on offense (James, Lumpkin and Muller) and THREE on defense (Mera, Gause and Longa).
2) Starters versus expected starters in the Spring: FIFTEEN (15) current starters versus what would have been expected in the Spring ... please name me a team that had THAT level of attrition merely from the Spring! The different starts versus Spring expectations: Flanagan over Arciadacono, Agudosi instead of the suspended Caroo, Lambert instead of the injured Turay, JPO over the injured Hamilton, freshmen Austin and Wharton over the suspended Barnwell and Boggs, and Cioffi over the suspended Stephenson.
On top of that, James should not be starting, frankly. Hicks is better right now, and so is Martin. James just lacks the explosion that has been one of his great assets prior to the latest knee surgery.
It is devastating to the team, both from an on-field performance standpoint, as well as from a MENTAL standpoint, to lose the best returning offensive player and captain, Caroo, and the best returning defensive player and captain, Hamilton. Plus, of course, losing 3/4 of your expected starting defensive backfield.
So, consider this ... what would be your expectations if you were told that RU would return just 6 starters form 2014, and would have to replace your 2 best offensive players (Nova and Caroo), your best defensive player (Hamilton), ALL FOUR starting DB's, and have your expected 3rd best returning defensive player (Turay) limited by injury?
At this stage, I still strongly believe RU has a chance at 5 wins, but I see no realistic path to more than 5 wins, and 3-4 wins seem more likely unless the OL, WR's and QB improve dramatically over the course of the season.
On the other hand ... 2016 looks potentially bright.
1) RU will return ALL its best offensive players other than Lumpkin and Caroo (if Caroo plays in 2015 at all) ... In fact, RU will return 20 of its 22 players on the TWO-deep on offense
2) Assuming Hamilton returns, RU will return 8 of 11 starters on defense, and 19 of 22 players on its defensive 2-deep,
3) Overall, RU will return 17 starters out of 22, and 39 of 44 on its 2-deep.
4) Due to redshirts, RU will have greater depth at WR, TE, DL, OL, at least. Plus some other injured players may return, especially at LB and DE.
5) RU drops Wisconsin and Nebraska as cross-over games, and adds Illinois and Minnesota .. and then Iowa also (may be very good, of course).
