I want to premise this post by stating that I have been a Kyle Flood supporter, as well as a Chris Laviano supporter (which I feel is very related to the Flood debate). However, based on where we are at this point, I have finally concluded that Coach Flood must go.
1. I don't really think KF was the right guy for the job at the time of his hire. But Schiano left us with one week to go before signing day in January 2012, and after a very quick search, Tim opted to save the recruiting class (the best one at RU since GS had taken over), so he went with an existing "players/coach" whom everyone "liked" in Flood. However, KF did not have the resume or experience to be the head coach at a then-BCS conference school. Had Tim had even one full month (or the two you usually get if you fire a coach in early December), I am confident that KF would NOT have been the choice. History has proven time and again that you cannot hire a coach based on saving a single recruiting class.
2. That said, KF proved that first year to be a refreshing change from the stiff GS regime, and we made our best bowl up to that point with an 9-3 record. Of course, he did this with our best defense since 2006, and KS showed some tendencies -- e.g. sticking too long with his starting QB within a game -- that continue to haunt us. But overall it was a successful year, although we should have won the BE championship outright.
3. Recruiting was an issue after Flood (and Tim) "saved" the 2012 Hamilton/Carroo/Lambert/etc. class. The 2013 class left a lot to be desired, though KF found some hidden gems like Turay. I suspect the 2013 class was undermined by our AAC conference affiliation at that point.
4. And then there was the fall 2013 debacle, both on and off the field. We were getting pummeled by the likes of Cincy, UCF, and Houston, etc., as we had a major deficiency in the defensive secondary after the departures of Ryan, Devin McCourty, Harmon, and Cooper, and we were facing several future NFL QBs. Not really Flood's fault, mind you, but it had to creep into people's minds that Flood was overmatched. However, KF started out Gangbusters on the recruiting trail, but then as losses mounted, and it was leaked that Julie was looking to replace Flood, we get 12 or 14 decommitments, including 4-stars Saeed Blacknell and the QB Tyler Wiegers. The losses were one thing, but the news of Julie affirmatively trying to raise money to replace Flood just KILLED us in recruiting. The February 2014 signing class was pretty bad, as evidenced by the fact that TEN members of the class are already gone from the program (and it's pretty clear by now that a few others will never see the field). The light 2013 class, and the bad 2014 class, are now having lasting effects on the field.
5. A quick note about DB recruiting. In the wake of the 2012 graduations, KF appeared to take some chances with guys who were pretty questionable in terms of character. Barnwell and Stephenson (2013), and then Boggs, Dailey and Lott (2014) -- not to mention a couple other Florida DBs who committed and then decommitted -- were Flood's answer to Ryan, McCourty, Harmon and Cooper. More on this later, but as everyone knows, all five guys are gone, four of them due to criminal activity. KF also took too many chances on Peele for the same reasons (he needed DBs), and he is also gone.
6. Despite the rough 2013 season, KF manages to get to a bowl with a late season win over USF, a win that very well may have saved his job (since Julie MIGHT have been able to raise the money needed to fire him had he lost that game).
7. First year in the B1G in 2014 -- the team exceeds expectations with a 3-5 conference record, but the blowout losses to the top four teams resonates. The 2015 recruiting class that followed looks to be pretty good, but it is still lacking in "top 10" NJ talent. In fact, KF's inability to land top 10 NJ talent was, and continues to be, a major issue. PSU, OSU, Michigan, etc. are coming into our backyard and taking whatever they want.
8. Which brings us to 2015 on the field. With the departures of Nova, Kroft, Burton, and Bujari, I worried about our offense. I felt our defense had a pretty good chance to improve, though, with Hamilton and Turay anchoring the DL, Gause and Longa anchoring the LBs, and Barnwell and Stephenson anchoring the DBs, plus we had some good young DBs who looked like keepers (Dailey, Boggs, Hester). What follows from here is just an incredible comedy of errors, some not KF's fault at all (the arrests and dismissals of FIVE of our TOP EIGHT DBs; the unfortunate arrest and suspension of our best player, Leonte Carroo; and serious injuries to our best players), but some completely KF's fault (email-gate).
I truly believe we were poised to outpace expectations again this year (every publication had us finishing last in the B1G East). But the arrest and dismissals of Barnwell, Boggs, Stephenson, and Peele just one week before the start of the season completely derailed the season, and that was on top of Dailey's arrest and dismissal back in the spring. I immediately changed my season prediction from 7-5 to 5-7 or worse, as I just didn't think we could have a successful defense with mostly freshmen and redshirt freshmen in the secondary. On top of that, our two most potent weapons on defense (Hamilton and Turay) were derailed by injuries, further impairing our defense since we now couldn't count on our DL to generate any pass rush to take pressure off of our DBs. NONE OF THIS WAS KYLE FLOOD'S FAULT. And it directly led to the loss to Wazzu, which I'm confident would have been a win with our starting DBs.
However, email-gate is ALL ON FLOOD. He knew the rules and broke them. All to save a player who was already on thin ice. Flood's 3-game suspension early in the week of the PSU game was a complete distraction, and that came the same week as Carroo's suspension (NOT FLOOD'S FAULT). We had no chance against PSU just five days after Carroo was suspended and two days after Flood was suspended.
9. I do NOT think the results on the field this year are ALL on Flood. He had no control over the criminal activity of his DBs, or the unfortunate Carroo incident. Email-gate is completely on Flood, and stained his previous reputation as a highly ethical "family" man. It also disrupted our coaching staff for several weeks.
10. I do NOT think the QB decision has made a material difference in the results this year. With the way our OL has played in the big games, I doubt Rettig would have fared much better, plus our defense has been simply atrocious. My biggest issue with Flood's handling of the QBs is his stubborn insistence to leave Laviano in games where it is clear to everyone that a change is needed, at the very least just to "mix things up" and see if you can strike lightning in a bottle. Just because you "chose" Laviano as your starter, doesn't mean you need to keep sending him out on the field if the offense has completely stagnated. I go back to GS's handling of Teel and Hart in 2005. GS inserts Teel into the lineup in mid-year, but then puts Hart back in a couple games later. Hart stated later that the time on the sideline was eye opening, and helped him see a different perspective. I think Laviano could have used that perspective, and the offense could not have been any worse off in these last three games.
CONCLUSION: As nice of a guy Flood is, and as well-liked as he apparently is by the current players and the current recruiting class (which is again pretty solid but lacking in "top 10" stars), and as much as this years on-field performance is not ALL his fault, PERCEPTION IS REALITY. And the "perception" right now is that this program is a dumpster fire, and it's probably already impacting recruiting both for the rest of the 2016 class and for the important 2017/2018 classes. It might seem unfair to fire a coach for on-field issues that are not all his fault, but the bottom line is that the buck stops at the top, and the negative perception of this team just cannot continue. Moreover, KF's "coaching" hasn't shown an ability to overcome talent deficiencies or inexperience.
It's time to move on.
1. I don't really think KF was the right guy for the job at the time of his hire. But Schiano left us with one week to go before signing day in January 2012, and after a very quick search, Tim opted to save the recruiting class (the best one at RU since GS had taken over), so he went with an existing "players/coach" whom everyone "liked" in Flood. However, KF did not have the resume or experience to be the head coach at a then-BCS conference school. Had Tim had even one full month (or the two you usually get if you fire a coach in early December), I am confident that KF would NOT have been the choice. History has proven time and again that you cannot hire a coach based on saving a single recruiting class.
2. That said, KF proved that first year to be a refreshing change from the stiff GS regime, and we made our best bowl up to that point with an 9-3 record. Of course, he did this with our best defense since 2006, and KS showed some tendencies -- e.g. sticking too long with his starting QB within a game -- that continue to haunt us. But overall it was a successful year, although we should have won the BE championship outright.
3. Recruiting was an issue after Flood (and Tim) "saved" the 2012 Hamilton/Carroo/Lambert/etc. class. The 2013 class left a lot to be desired, though KF found some hidden gems like Turay. I suspect the 2013 class was undermined by our AAC conference affiliation at that point.
4. And then there was the fall 2013 debacle, both on and off the field. We were getting pummeled by the likes of Cincy, UCF, and Houston, etc., as we had a major deficiency in the defensive secondary after the departures of Ryan, Devin McCourty, Harmon, and Cooper, and we were facing several future NFL QBs. Not really Flood's fault, mind you, but it had to creep into people's minds that Flood was overmatched. However, KF started out Gangbusters on the recruiting trail, but then as losses mounted, and it was leaked that Julie was looking to replace Flood, we get 12 or 14 decommitments, including 4-stars Saeed Blacknell and the QB Tyler Wiegers. The losses were one thing, but the news of Julie affirmatively trying to raise money to replace Flood just KILLED us in recruiting. The February 2014 signing class was pretty bad, as evidenced by the fact that TEN members of the class are already gone from the program (and it's pretty clear by now that a few others will never see the field). The light 2013 class, and the bad 2014 class, are now having lasting effects on the field.
5. A quick note about DB recruiting. In the wake of the 2012 graduations, KF appeared to take some chances with guys who were pretty questionable in terms of character. Barnwell and Stephenson (2013), and then Boggs, Dailey and Lott (2014) -- not to mention a couple other Florida DBs who committed and then decommitted -- were Flood's answer to Ryan, McCourty, Harmon and Cooper. More on this later, but as everyone knows, all five guys are gone, four of them due to criminal activity. KF also took too many chances on Peele for the same reasons (he needed DBs), and he is also gone.
6. Despite the rough 2013 season, KF manages to get to a bowl with a late season win over USF, a win that very well may have saved his job (since Julie MIGHT have been able to raise the money needed to fire him had he lost that game).
7. First year in the B1G in 2014 -- the team exceeds expectations with a 3-5 conference record, but the blowout losses to the top four teams resonates. The 2015 recruiting class that followed looks to be pretty good, but it is still lacking in "top 10" NJ talent. In fact, KF's inability to land top 10 NJ talent was, and continues to be, a major issue. PSU, OSU, Michigan, etc. are coming into our backyard and taking whatever they want.
8. Which brings us to 2015 on the field. With the departures of Nova, Kroft, Burton, and Bujari, I worried about our offense. I felt our defense had a pretty good chance to improve, though, with Hamilton and Turay anchoring the DL, Gause and Longa anchoring the LBs, and Barnwell and Stephenson anchoring the DBs, plus we had some good young DBs who looked like keepers (Dailey, Boggs, Hester). What follows from here is just an incredible comedy of errors, some not KF's fault at all (the arrests and dismissals of FIVE of our TOP EIGHT DBs; the unfortunate arrest and suspension of our best player, Leonte Carroo; and serious injuries to our best players), but some completely KF's fault (email-gate).
I truly believe we were poised to outpace expectations again this year (every publication had us finishing last in the B1G East). But the arrest and dismissals of Barnwell, Boggs, Stephenson, and Peele just one week before the start of the season completely derailed the season, and that was on top of Dailey's arrest and dismissal back in the spring. I immediately changed my season prediction from 7-5 to 5-7 or worse, as I just didn't think we could have a successful defense with mostly freshmen and redshirt freshmen in the secondary. On top of that, our two most potent weapons on defense (Hamilton and Turay) were derailed by injuries, further impairing our defense since we now couldn't count on our DL to generate any pass rush to take pressure off of our DBs. NONE OF THIS WAS KYLE FLOOD'S FAULT. And it directly led to the loss to Wazzu, which I'm confident would have been a win with our starting DBs.
However, email-gate is ALL ON FLOOD. He knew the rules and broke them. All to save a player who was already on thin ice. Flood's 3-game suspension early in the week of the PSU game was a complete distraction, and that came the same week as Carroo's suspension (NOT FLOOD'S FAULT). We had no chance against PSU just five days after Carroo was suspended and two days after Flood was suspended.
9. I do NOT think the results on the field this year are ALL on Flood. He had no control over the criminal activity of his DBs, or the unfortunate Carroo incident. Email-gate is completely on Flood, and stained his previous reputation as a highly ethical "family" man. It also disrupted our coaching staff for several weeks.
10. I do NOT think the QB decision has made a material difference in the results this year. With the way our OL has played in the big games, I doubt Rettig would have fared much better, plus our defense has been simply atrocious. My biggest issue with Flood's handling of the QBs is his stubborn insistence to leave Laviano in games where it is clear to everyone that a change is needed, at the very least just to "mix things up" and see if you can strike lightning in a bottle. Just because you "chose" Laviano as your starter, doesn't mean you need to keep sending him out on the field if the offense has completely stagnated. I go back to GS's handling of Teel and Hart in 2005. GS inserts Teel into the lineup in mid-year, but then puts Hart back in a couple games later. Hart stated later that the time on the sideline was eye opening, and helped him see a different perspective. I think Laviano could have used that perspective, and the offense could not have been any worse off in these last three games.
CONCLUSION: As nice of a guy Flood is, and as well-liked as he apparently is by the current players and the current recruiting class (which is again pretty solid but lacking in "top 10" stars), and as much as this years on-field performance is not ALL his fault, PERCEPTION IS REALITY. And the "perception" right now is that this program is a dumpster fire, and it's probably already impacting recruiting both for the rest of the 2016 class and for the important 2017/2018 classes. It might seem unfair to fire a coach for on-field issues that are not all his fault, but the bottom line is that the buck stops at the top, and the negative perception of this team just cannot continue. Moreover, KF's "coaching" hasn't shown an ability to overcome talent deficiencies or inexperience.
It's time to move on.
