How Over Is It?

[fluoxetine]

Let's start with this:
As things stand right now we will likely not be favored in a game until Feb 23. I've got the current win probabilities as follows
Purdue 30%
UCLA 31%
at Nebraska 18%
at Penn St 22%
Michigan St 29%
at Northwestern 25%
Michigan 26%
Illinois 22%
at Maryland 14%
Iowa 49%
at Oregon 16%
at Washington 40%
USC 61%
at Michigan 11%
at Purdue 13%
Minnesota 73%

That's a predicted record of 13-18 (6-14) and from a W/L perspective would be an even worse performance than last year, really a failure of epic proportions. But anyway...

I am sticking with the idea that 18-13 is enough to be on the right side of the bubble come March 9, Big Ten Tournament aside. That would require a 10-6 finish. Solving for the KenPom rating that would make our expected record over the next 16 games 10-6, we get: +24.31

With a +24.15 rating, the win probabilities would become:
Purdue 65%
UCLA 67%
at Nebraska 52%
at Penn St 57%
Michigan St 65%
at Northwestern 60%
Michigan 63%
Illinois 58%
at Maryland 46%
Iowa 83%
at Oregon 47%
at Washington 75%
USC 89%
at Michigan 39%
at Purdue 41%
Minnesota 94%

A +24.15 rating would be #12 in the current rankings. So we essentially need to play like the #12 team for the rest of the season in order to get back to the bubble.

The answer to the question? Pretty over... but not 100% over.

 

[RUChoppin]

Only path to the NCAA tournament, in my mind, is 1) making the B1G Tournament, and 2) winning the auto-bid.

Unless we somehow flip a switch and win 11 of our next 16 games. I don't think anything short of 19 wins is putting us in the tournament this year, and that's even on the bubble.

 

[fluoxetine]

Only path to the NCAA tournament, in my mind, is 1) making the B1G Tournament, and 2) winning the auto-bid.

Unless we somehow flip a switch and win 11 of our next 16 games. I don't think anything short of 19 wins is putting us in the tournament this year, and that's even on the bubble.

Still think 18 is good, but we are really unlikely to find out.

5% chance imo, not completely dead but.. pretty dead.

 

[malaka27]

I would say 20 wins in the number to shoot for (and probably miss). Maybe 18-19 could get them in if Nike and Fanatics has enough pull on the committee . . . haha

 

[RUsojo]

Can we move on to acceptance stage already?


Not doing so just ruins all the bball conversation bc people with irrational perspective of the season cannot participate in conversation with any sanity.

 

[Plum Street]

It ain’t over until it’s over

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

so we can lose 5 more games....i like those odds better than winning 5 games in 5 days

 

[Mr Magoo]

So we’re dead but not yet dead as a door nail.

 

[bethlehemfan]

Let's start with this:
As things stand right now we will likely not be favored in a game until Feb 23. I've got the current win probabilities as follows
Purdue 30%
UCLA 31%
at Nebraska 18%
at Penn St 22%
Michigan St 29%
at Northwestern 25%
Michigan 26%
Illinois 22%
at Maryland 14%
Iowa 49%
at Oregon 16%
at Washington 40%
USC 61%
at Michigan 11%
at Purdue 13%
Minnesota 73%

That's a predicted record of 13-18 (6-14) and from a W/L perspective would be an even worse performance than last year, really a failure of epic proportions. But anyway...

I am sticking with the idea that 18-13 is enough to be on the right side of the bubble come March 9, Big Ten Tournament aside. That would require a 10-6 finish. Solving for the KenPom rating that would make our expected record over the next 16 games 10-6, we get: +24.31

With a +24.15 rating, the win probabilities would become:
Purdue 65%
UCLA 67%
at Nebraska 52%
at Penn St 57%
Michigan St 65%
at Northwestern 60%
Michigan 63%
Illinois 58%
at Maryland 46%
Iowa 83%
at Oregon 47%
at Washington 75%
USC 89%
at Michigan 39%
at Purdue 41%
Minnesota 94%

A +24.15 rating would be #12 in the current rankings. So we essentially need to play like the #12 team for the rest of the season in order to get back to the bubble.

The answer to the question? Pretty over... but not 100% over.

It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor either.

 

[fluoxetine]

Can we move on to acceptance stage already?


Not doing so just ruins all the bball conversation bc people with irrational perspective of the season cannot participate in conversation with any sanity.

What would you like to discuss instead? "What do we need to do to get in the tournament" seems like a logical thing to discuss until we've literally lost enough games that the answer becomes "go back in time or win the BTT" at which point it will be pointless to discuss.

If you want to talk about other things create a thread about whatever those things are.

 

[kt124]

probably need to go 11-5 the rest of the regular season or win the big ten tournament (assuming we get in which is not entirely likely)

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

Let's start with this:
As things stand right now we will likely not be favored in a game until Feb 23. I've got the current win probabilities as follows
Purdue 30%
UCLA 31%
at Nebraska 18%
at Penn St 22%
Michigan St 29%
at Northwestern 25%
Michigan 26%
Illinois 22%
at Maryland 14%
Iowa 49%
at Oregon 16%
at Washington 40%
USC 61%
at Michigan 11%
at Purdue 13%
Minnesota 73%

That's a predicted record of 13-18 (6-14) and from a W/L perspective would be an even worse performance than last year, really a failure of epic proportions. But anyway...

I am sticking with the idea that 18-13 is enough to be on the right side of the bubble come March 9, Big Ten Tournament aside. That would require a 10-6 finish. Solving for the KenPom rating that would make our expected record over the next 16 games 10-6, we get: +24.31

With a +24.15 rating, the win probabilities would become:
Purdue 65%
UCLA 67%
at Nebraska 52%
at Penn St 57%
Michigan St 65%
at Northwestern 60%
Michigan 63%
Illinois 58%
at Maryland 46%
Iowa 83%
at Oregon 47%
at Washington 75%
USC 89%
at Michigan 39%
at Purdue 41%
Minnesota 94%

A +24.15 rating would be #12 in the current rankings. So we essentially need to play like the #12 team for the rest of the season in order to get back to the bubble.

The answer to the question? Pretty over... but not 100% over.

Put a fork in it. We are done. These guys aren't like the pre-NIL teams from last 5 years. Nobody cares whether they make any postseason or not. Just care about next portal transfer.

 

[RutgersClassof2004]

My guess is they win maybe 5 of next 16.

 

[RAC93]

What would you like to discuss instead? "What do we need to do to get in the tournament" seems like a logical thing to discuss until we've literally lost enough games that the answer becomes "go back in time or win the BTT" at which point it will be pointless to discuss.

If you want to talk about other things create a thread about whatever those things are.

It is your thread, so that’s fair. You mentioned it’s not 100% over yet, I think the at large bid chances are 100% over, I think the only remaining very small percentage chance is winning the conference tournament (that’s if they even make it in the top 15). Essentially they are on life support as Wachtel said, the conference tourney is really the life support equipment keeping them alive at this point.

 

[RW90]

I've lowered my hopes to settling for at least being competitive against Purdue.

 

[Scangg]

18 will definitely not get us in

We have 0 good OOC wins and a horrific loss

 

[Local Shill]

The worst part of tis disaster is that it seems like this board cares more than the players.

 

[newell138]

18 is not getting a bid w/ some of the losses we have. Only way in is to win the BIG tourney assuming we even make it in and unless something drastically changes that is not likely. Whats more likely is that we will be the laughingstock of the BIG again in hoops because even when we have 2 generational players we still suck. Its the curse of being an RU fan/alum.

 

[bac2therac]

Still think 18 is good, but we are really unlikely to find out.

5% chance imo, not completely dead but.. pretty dead.

there is nothing to suggest 18 wins is good enough to make the tourney given the sheer amount of other big 10 and power 5 conference schools all in the vicinity of 18 and above who already have built resumes currently

 

[DHajekRC84]

Put a fork in it. We are done. These guys aren't like the pre-NIL teams from last 5 years. Nobody cares whether they make any postseason or not. Just care about next portal transfer.

This guy couldn't beat a crappy minny team to get in a couple years ago. Now we're counting the win on paper again.

Honestly I'm just looking forward to seeing Dylan play and see what comes of Acu(sp) and Grant.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

BAC I know you are all in with this stuff and you are the expert. I am also not sure how much compression there will be with teams playing only conference games the rest of the way.....it looks like there is a way more than normal gap between conferences. SEC, B12 and B1G look miles ahead of BE who is miles ahead of the rest of the conferences.

Not sure how many bids power conferences get but is it possible a 11-9 record in any of the Top 3 conferences could be enough...in other words will all the other conferences be stuck because their teams will have very few Q1 games

27 of top 33 NET teams are from B12. SEC and B1G

 

[zappaa]

It ain’t over until it’s over

But it is getting late early

 

[fluoxetine]

there is nothing to suggest 18 wins is good enough to make the tourney given the sheer amount of other big 10 and power 5 conference schools all in the vicinity of 18 and above who already have built resumes currently

Because getting to 18 wins means 6 Q1 wins minimum, there were only 12 teams with more than that at the end of the reg season last yr.

 

[fluoxetine]

Q1 6-11
Q2 4-0
Q3 3-2
Q4 5-0

That *is* a resume, again I am not suggesting this is actually going to happen.

 

[darkcheck]

Q1 6-11
Q2 4-0
Q3 3-2
Q4 5-0

That *is* a resume, again I am not suggesting this is actually going to happen.

I feel two Q3/Q4 losses eliminated that team there. I don’t know why they split q3 and q4 up but the committee seems to count them both the same when they want to.

 

[fluoxetine]

I feel two Q3/Q4 losses eliminated that team there. I don’t know why they split q3 and q4 up but the committee seems to count them both the same when they want to.

Last year Saint Mary's got a 5 seed (they were an autobid but a 5 seed implies they easily would've been an at large):
Q1 5-3
Q2 3-2
Q3 5-2
Q4 12-0

New Mexico (11 seed, again an autobid but implies borderline at large):
Q1 5-6
Q2 3-1
Q3 7-1
Q4 10-1

FL Atlantic (8 seed)
Q1 2-2
Q2 8-3
Q3 8-1
Q4 7-2

Texas A&M (9 seed)
Q1 7-7
Q2 6-3
Q3 2-4
Q4 5-0

South Carolina (6 seed)
Q1 6-5
Q2 5-0
Q3 6-2
Q4 9-0

You can get in with 2+ Q3 losses.

The only team that missed the tournament last season with 6 or more Q1 wins was Providence
21-13
Q1: 6-9
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 11-0

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Q1 6-11
Q2 4-0
Q3 3-2
Q4 5-0

That *is* a resume, again I am not suggesting this is actually going to happen.

HOW ARE WE GOING TO WIN 18 GAMES? DO YOU EVEN WATCH THE GAMES?

that does smell like TX A&M...altough 6-11 vs 7-7

 

[bac2therac]

BAC I know you are all in with this stuff and you are the expert. I am also not sure how much compression there will be with teams playing only conference games the rest of the way.....it looks like there is a way more than normal gap between conferences. SEC, B12 and B1G look miles ahead of BE who is miles ahead of the rest of the conferences.

Not sure how many bids power conferences get but is it possible a 11-9 record in any of the Top 3 conferences could be enough...in other words will all the other conferences be stuck because their teams will have very few Q1 games

27 of top 33 NET teams are from B12. SEC and B1G

conference mark wont matter but there will could 30 totals bids from these conferences..3 autos 27 at larges

 

[L&IC]

I think it'll be too little too late but I think we have a run in us.

 

[bac2therac]

Because getting to 18 wins means 6 Q1 wins minimum, there were only 12 teams with more than that at the end of the reg season last yr.

You are treating Rutgers in isolation

You can say the same thing for every SEC and Big 10 and Big 12 school

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

I think it'll be too little too late but I think we have a run in us.

No way.
I’m going to say no more than 6 wins the rest of the season.

 

[fluoxetine]

HOW ARE WE GOING TO WIN 18 GAMES? DO YOU EVEN WATCH THE GAMES?

that does smell like TX A&M...altough 6-11 vs 7-7

We aren't.

You are treating Rutgers in isolation

You can say the same thing for every SEC and Big 10 and Big 12 school

I'm not exactly sure what you are saying.

Are you predicting that this season is going to have a lot of teams with 6+ Q1 wins despite this being less than 20 teams in previous seasons?

 

[fluoxetine]

Teams currently projected with 6+ Q1 wins per Torvik

Auburn	14​
Tennessee	11​
Alabama	10​
Mississippi St.	10​
Iowa St.	9​
Kentucky	9​
Houston	9​
Marquette	8​
UCLA	8​
Michigan	8​
Oregon	7​
Duke	7​
Purdue	7​
West Virginia	7​
Oklahoma	6​
Texas A&M	6​
Wisconsin	6​
Mississippi	6​
Baylor	6​
Maryland	6​

That's 20.

 

[darkcheck]

Last year Saint Mary's got a 5 seed (they were an autobid but a 5 seed implies they easily would've been an at large):
Q1 5-3
Q2 3-2
Q3 5-2
Q4 12-0

New Mexico (11 seed, again an autobid but implies borderline at large):
Q1 5-6
Q2 3-1
Q3 7-1
Q4 10-1

FL Atlantic (8 seed)
Q1 2-2
Q2 8-3
Q3 8-1
Q4 7-2

Texas A&M (9 seed)
Q1 7-7
Q2 6-3
Q3 2-4
Q4 5-0

South Carolina (6 seed)
Q1 6-5
Q2 5-0
Q3 6-2
Q4 9-0

You can get in with 2+ Q3 losses.

The only team that missed the tournament last season with 6 or more Q1 wins was Providence
21-13
Q1: 6-9
Q2: 3-4
Q3: 1-0
Q4: 11-0

One correlation is the team with the most Q1 losses (9) didn’t make it. We’d have 11 in that scenario. But I respect your research and argument

 

[RUChoppin]

Because getting to 18 wins means 6 Q1 wins minimum, there were only 12 teams with more than that at the end of the reg season last yr.

I think there may be slightly more Q1 wins among the top 3 conferences just because so many of their teams are Q1 this year. B1G/SEC/B12 teams will each average about 11 Q1 conference games, plus any others they've already played OOC.

 

[Mr Magoo]

The worst part of tis disaster is that it seems like this board cares more than the players.

This.

 

[fluoxetine]

One correlation is the team with the most Q1 losses (9) didn’t make it. We’d have 11 in that scenario. But I respect your research and argument

True but they also had 4 Q4 losses and we’d be 4-0 Q2 in this hypothetical.

I think there may be slightly more Q1 wins among the top 3 conferences just because so many of their teams are Q1 this year. B1G/SEC/B12 teams will each average about 11 Q1 conference games, plus any others they've already played OOC.

Yeah as mentioned there are 20 projected currently by Torvik which is more than the 11-12 that it was last year but it still puts you in very good company.

 

[RuSnp]

Let's start with this:
As things stand right now we will likely not be favored in a game until Feb 23. I've got the current win probabilities as follows
Purdue 30%
UCLA 31%
at Nebraska 18%
at Penn St 22%
Michigan St 29%
at Northwestern 25%
Michigan 26%
Illinois 22%
at Maryland 14%
Iowa 49%
at Oregon 16%
at Washington 40%
USC 61%
at Michigan 11%
at Purdue 13%
Minnesota 73%

That's a predicted record of 13-18 (6-14) and from a W/L perspective would be an even worse performance than last year, really a failure of epic proportions. But anyway...

I am sticking with the idea that 18-13 is enough to be on the right side of the bubble come March 9, Big Ten Tournament aside. That would require a 10-6 finish. Solving for the KenPom rating that would make our expected record over the next 16 games 10-6, we get: +24.31

With a +24.15 rating, the win probabilities would become:
Purdue 65%
UCLA 67%
at Nebraska 52%
at Penn St 57%
Michigan St 65%
at Northwestern 60%
Michigan 63%
Illinois 58%
at Maryland 46%
Iowa 83%
at Oregon 47%
at Washington 75%
USC 89%
at Michigan 39%
at Purdue 41%
Minnesota 94%

A +24.15 rating would be #12 in the current rankings. So we essentially need to play like the #12 team for the rest of the season in order to get back to the bubble.

The answer to the question? Pretty over... but not 100% over.

Fluox thanks for this but nobody goes to Kenpom anymore it's too crowded.

 

[angmo]

So we’re dead but not yet dead as a door nail.

Right now we are buried in an Indian burial ground.

 

[bac2therac]

We aren't.

I'm not exactly sure what you are saying.

Are you predicting that this season is going to have a lot of teams with 6+ Q1 wins despite this being less than 20 teams in previous seasons?

im saying this scenario is true for most of the power conference schools