Reading some pretty good postings by folks here, elsewhere and doing my own reading on what to expect for this college football season. I always reference my past reading materials, magazines, specific blogs for valuable information, websites, just to stay current on where other programs are...it always helps to read about other schools, vs "living in a vacuum" and only focusing on RU or the B1G....
In almost all of those cases of the other Power 5 schools, there are specific hurdles, 3 in particular that have ZERO to do with coaching staffs in either sport, but primarily focused on football here.
The 3 hurdles that prevent any Power 5 conference school from winning in football is having one or more of these items/hurdles OR not having an ability or willingness to eliminate that hurdle(s)….Here are the three items that I don't see changing what determines success or prevents it from happening.
A) Location for recruiting, school-demographics of school/fan base. There are certain schools in certain parts of the country, that just have to "do more" than just recruit and admit any and all kids, they are just limited on what they can sell other than their program or school….....They are capable of very good seasons if certain things fall into place, but are never a threat to win a conference title more than once every 20 to 40 years in football…..on the other hand, certain schools enjoy a specific location in the country, that adds value well beyond the actual program, head coach or tradition. In most cases, I see the trends staying or moving towards those schools having a better chance to win consistently at all levels, if they are located in prime spots vs not.
B) Admissions standards for academics, to grow athletics or keep up with others....Certain schools lacking the prime location or tradition, have the right to admit or to not admit certain student athletes…..And there are other schools who are never going to cut enough corners consistently enough, to admit kids that cannot come close to completing academic work at a grade or high school level, never mind a college level......
This also includes admission or more flexible admissions for JUCO athletes, which is essentially an enhanced/advanced level of “College Free Agency or fixes past recruiting misses or gaps”. Schools that do not recruit JUCO’s at a high enough rate, are at risk of limiting their growth, if they are in a less desirable location or competing against others that do recruit JUCO’s and are in a better location demographically…..my brief example would be that Mississippi State has a better chance each and every year to fill their roster with quality JUCO’s for football from their region, that fits their demographics easier, than say Washington State/Oregon State or Iowa State. It’s not a knock against any one school, just pointing out that places that more readily feed or provide athletes have a better chance of winning vs not.
C) Ability to grow fan base/branding beyond the school's location.......OR is that school capable of becoming a threat to achieve a Number 1, 2 or 3 status in their location with casual sports fans beyond their area, where those fans become or feel like they are a true part of the program??? There are schools mentioned that carry a "boogie-man" status or history based on their past history, that takes on a life of it’s own…. where we actually just look at recruiting rankings and that “name” of the school (80K, 85K or 95K or 100K plus stadiums).
We tend to overvalue these schools in pre-season rankings, over value them with in season rankings and certainly do so in overall recruiting rankings........there are schools that lean heavily on that branding of their past, which isn’t a guarantee that they will show up and win, just because you wear a specific uniform or play in a certain conference.
If you look at what these three factors are, there are certain schools that have all 3 hurdles in front of them……most (to me) have at least 2 of the 3 hurdles in front of them……and far less than half of the Power 5 schools have only 1…..and then there a select group that truly don’t have any of these 3 items or hurdles…..those schools that avoid having any of these 3 hurdles, tend to just win more games at a higher level, year in and year out.
So where is RU today (again, my opinion but pretty much fact if you look at things on a national scale and take past history as a guide).
Right now, RU today has two of the three hurdles in front of them….it is pretty much up to RU fans to eliminate one of them (fan base alumni growth) and RU as a school/university on whether they want to have no hurdles or restrictions on admissions of specific athletes/JUCO's to eliminate the other. I believe that is where or why Delany and the B1G essentially targeted both RU and Maryland.
Right now, RU has B & C as hurdles………most are “perception based” looking at how HS coaches and Jnior ucollege coaches view RU…..is it a place where HS or JUCO coaches immediately think of to send their athlete today?? Not to me, or not yet and that has to change OR we can have the mantra that academics is more critical and we just bypass kids in state or in region that can help RU win games.
Is RU at the stage where their fan base has been maxed out?? Certainly not, when we go from 23K stadium size 25 years ago, to 45K in to 53K to a potential 65 to 70K size stadium. There are enough fans in our region to make a significant change, if we win games consistently the next few years......RU has also lacked the finances to make this happen earlier in the process years ago.
Notice that none of this has anything to do with coaching and there are rare exceptions where location or lack of an instate recruiting base (Oregon draws primarily from California, but wisely expanded beyond California to gain traction elsewhere and has a Nike billionaire contributing over the last 2 decades).
Schools that have demographic limitations, essentially have eliminated those hurdles by ramping up their JUCO admissions and expanded their fan bases by financially spending money to enhance facilities and ability to sell their program….in most of these cases, they are the only game in town, thus they have an ability to grow and sell their program beyond their borders.
That program then starts to look and feel better to an out of state athlete/family that sees just the stadium and fans (similar to what we are hearing and seeing with RU)….then they get more impressed when they visit and learn about the school. Those schools sell game day more than location or demographics, while RU essentially sells now game dayfirst, location 1A, academics 1B and then sells the growth of the program that doesn't jump off the page with 80K to 90K fans.
Just something to consider……while we think changing coaches here or around the country essentially matters the most….I think RU has reached a stage where what we are doing is just “raising the floor”….which has never essentially happened at RU….it was always survival mode….Schiano started that raising of the floor after 2006 and Flood is slowly raising it, although it’s now against significantly stronger competition than Schiano ever had to deal with.
Coaching only becomes the most critical when a coach has no hurdles in front of him. The true attempt to win, is when all 3 obstacles/hurldes are not there for recruiting....and is much more difficult when you are not armed with the resources or access that other coaches around the country or conference have as well.
Is RU going to be all-in, or just becoming another school enjoying the chance to collect checks over the next decade, thinking they have accomplished something, strictly based on being in this great conference and being in a great location of the tri-state area. History tells me what schools will continue to win, which will have flashes and RU is truly the one of the few undefined diamonds in the rough OR one of the few unfinished products left in major conference sports (Baylor, TCU, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Miss State, etc) that have tremendous upside with demographics or growth….I know RU’s best days are ahead of us, how fast we get there is the question.
In almost all of those cases of the other Power 5 schools, there are specific hurdles, 3 in particular that have ZERO to do with coaching staffs in either sport, but primarily focused on football here.
The 3 hurdles that prevent any Power 5 conference school from winning in football is having one or more of these items/hurdles OR not having an ability or willingness to eliminate that hurdle(s)….Here are the three items that I don't see changing what determines success or prevents it from happening.
A) Location for recruiting, school-demographics of school/fan base. There are certain schools in certain parts of the country, that just have to "do more" than just recruit and admit any and all kids, they are just limited on what they can sell other than their program or school….....They are capable of very good seasons if certain things fall into place, but are never a threat to win a conference title more than once every 20 to 40 years in football…..on the other hand, certain schools enjoy a specific location in the country, that adds value well beyond the actual program, head coach or tradition. In most cases, I see the trends staying or moving towards those schools having a better chance to win consistently at all levels, if they are located in prime spots vs not.
B) Admissions standards for academics, to grow athletics or keep up with others....Certain schools lacking the prime location or tradition, have the right to admit or to not admit certain student athletes…..And there are other schools who are never going to cut enough corners consistently enough, to admit kids that cannot come close to completing academic work at a grade or high school level, never mind a college level......
This also includes admission or more flexible admissions for JUCO athletes, which is essentially an enhanced/advanced level of “College Free Agency or fixes past recruiting misses or gaps”. Schools that do not recruit JUCO’s at a high enough rate, are at risk of limiting their growth, if they are in a less desirable location or competing against others that do recruit JUCO’s and are in a better location demographically…..my brief example would be that Mississippi State has a better chance each and every year to fill their roster with quality JUCO’s for football from their region, that fits their demographics easier, than say Washington State/Oregon State or Iowa State. It’s not a knock against any one school, just pointing out that places that more readily feed or provide athletes have a better chance of winning vs not.
C) Ability to grow fan base/branding beyond the school's location.......OR is that school capable of becoming a threat to achieve a Number 1, 2 or 3 status in their location with casual sports fans beyond their area, where those fans become or feel like they are a true part of the program??? There are schools mentioned that carry a "boogie-man" status or history based on their past history, that takes on a life of it’s own…. where we actually just look at recruiting rankings and that “name” of the school (80K, 85K or 95K or 100K plus stadiums).
We tend to overvalue these schools in pre-season rankings, over value them with in season rankings and certainly do so in overall recruiting rankings........there are schools that lean heavily on that branding of their past, which isn’t a guarantee that they will show up and win, just because you wear a specific uniform or play in a certain conference.
If you look at what these three factors are, there are certain schools that have all 3 hurdles in front of them……most (to me) have at least 2 of the 3 hurdles in front of them……and far less than half of the Power 5 schools have only 1…..and then there a select group that truly don’t have any of these 3 items or hurdles…..those schools that avoid having any of these 3 hurdles, tend to just win more games at a higher level, year in and year out.
So where is RU today (again, my opinion but pretty much fact if you look at things on a national scale and take past history as a guide).
Right now, RU today has two of the three hurdles in front of them….it is pretty much up to RU fans to eliminate one of them (fan base alumni growth) and RU as a school/university on whether they want to have no hurdles or restrictions on admissions of specific athletes/JUCO's to eliminate the other. I believe that is where or why Delany and the B1G essentially targeted both RU and Maryland.
Right now, RU has B & C as hurdles………most are “perception based” looking at how HS coaches and Jnior ucollege coaches view RU…..is it a place where HS or JUCO coaches immediately think of to send their athlete today?? Not to me, or not yet and that has to change OR we can have the mantra that academics is more critical and we just bypass kids in state or in region that can help RU win games.
Is RU at the stage where their fan base has been maxed out?? Certainly not, when we go from 23K stadium size 25 years ago, to 45K in to 53K to a potential 65 to 70K size stadium. There are enough fans in our region to make a significant change, if we win games consistently the next few years......RU has also lacked the finances to make this happen earlier in the process years ago.
Notice that none of this has anything to do with coaching and there are rare exceptions where location or lack of an instate recruiting base (Oregon draws primarily from California, but wisely expanded beyond California to gain traction elsewhere and has a Nike billionaire contributing over the last 2 decades).
Schools that have demographic limitations, essentially have eliminated those hurdles by ramping up their JUCO admissions and expanded their fan bases by financially spending money to enhance facilities and ability to sell their program….in most of these cases, they are the only game in town, thus they have an ability to grow and sell their program beyond their borders.
That program then starts to look and feel better to an out of state athlete/family that sees just the stadium and fans (similar to what we are hearing and seeing with RU)….then they get more impressed when they visit and learn about the school. Those schools sell game day more than location or demographics, while RU essentially sells now game dayfirst, location 1A, academics 1B and then sells the growth of the program that doesn't jump off the page with 80K to 90K fans.
Just something to consider……while we think changing coaches here or around the country essentially matters the most….I think RU has reached a stage where what we are doing is just “raising the floor”….which has never essentially happened at RU….it was always survival mode….Schiano started that raising of the floor after 2006 and Flood is slowly raising it, although it’s now against significantly stronger competition than Schiano ever had to deal with.
Coaching only becomes the most critical when a coach has no hurdles in front of him. The true attempt to win, is when all 3 obstacles/hurldes are not there for recruiting....and is much more difficult when you are not armed with the resources or access that other coaches around the country or conference have as well.
Is RU going to be all-in, or just becoming another school enjoying the chance to collect checks over the next decade, thinking they have accomplished something, strictly based on being in this great conference and being in a great location of the tri-state area. History tells me what schools will continue to win, which will have flashes and RU is truly the one of the few undefined diamonds in the rough OR one of the few unfinished products left in major conference sports (Baylor, TCU, Arizona State, Ole Miss, Miss State, etc) that have tremendous upside with demographics or growth….I know RU’s best days are ahead of us, how fast we get there is the question.
