Illini D vs Iowa D

[AreYouNUTS]

So...I keep reading posts about how good this Illinois D is, asking "how are we going to move against it," etc., etc., which made me do a little quick research. Now, I know they have 2 very good DE's, with 1 IIRC who will be suspended for the 1st half, but that just means our running game - see: OL - will have to be a major factor on that 1st down play we like to run, right? I also understand that they'll watch the OSU and Michigan films and try to do what they did to completely shut us down, BUT, they DO NOT have the 1st team athletes that those 2 teams have. Period. That, to me makes a big difference in wanting to do something and, well, being able to do it well and consistently. Anyway, check these stats out (I'm tired, just did the basics...):

Total D - 58th (Iowa 31st)
Run D - 85th (Iowa 72nd)
Pass Eff D - 76th (Iowa 33rd)
Sacks - 41st (Iowa 36th)
Scoring D - 86th (Iowa 13th)
(Current Sagarin SOS based on games played only - Illinois 48th (Iowa 71st)

So....why does everyone think so much of The Illini D? We should be able to move on these guys as much as we did on Iowa BUT, of course, we have to execute (see: hit wide open receivers and pitch the damn ball when necessary...), not turn the ball over, and reduce the penalties on O. Believe it or not we've only lost 7 TO's this year. Then again we've only gained 6. What this COULD come down to, IMHO, are ST's....

** took a quick look and, well, we're both equally bad at everything ST-wise, it looks like.

Hope this helps a little!


BTW - looking through those stats it's scary how much better Indiana suddenly is on D but, IIRC, they were incredibly young on that side of the ball the last 2 years. Regardless we'll come back to them in a couple weeks.

 

[BoogieKnight]

Maybe people are praising their head coach because he took a team to the super bowl a decade ago? Despite the fact he flamed out at his next job which ironically was replacing our former coach who lead us to a #12 ranking that same season?

No reason this isn't a toss up game like Iowa was. Could we lose? Sure...we are not good enough to assume victory over any P5 school. But we could win just the same.

 

[MozRU]

We have no QB that can throw it anywhere on the field. By the looks of it, is there anyone to throw to?

III will stack the box and say, "you can't throw. What are you going to do now?"

 

[AshSaturday]

Laviano isn' t the best QB but he's capable of hitting the open man. I do think he'll be on a short leash here, will prove decently effective but may split time to keep the Illini off balance a bit (and get another QB some reps). The Illinois defense isn't Michigans or Ohio States. Iowas D was also good and Rutgers was faced with the sudden loss of Grant. We scored in the 40's? against new Mexico.

Not too much about the outcome of this came could surprise me. Rutgers could be flat and lose big but I have a feeling the team will be out to prove the neighsayers wrong. I still think with error free smart football and coaching this team is capable of winning 5-6 games. Even 7 wouldn't TOTALLY stun me as the rest of the schedule are very good but not great teams. Then again Rutgers is also capable of losing out...

RU can move the ball against Illinois. They should be able to pass at LEAST somewhat effectively.***One thing Ive seen that the coaching staff has been bad about is going long and for it all on 1st down. This sets up a 2nd and most oft 3rd and long and then the D can adjust. RU needs to mix it up with runs and short, effective passes. **This also helps keep the defense off the field-I think the defense is somewhat better than most think. The defense needs to tackle better.

With, clean, error free football. I think Rutgers wins this game-perhaps a decent margin. Though they coujld well lose I wouldn't also be surprised, come 4pm Saturday, that fans are talking about the greatest point deficit within 2 weeks in NCAA history. RutgersAL I am not but Illinois is neither Ohio State or Michigan (or Iowa for that matter).

 

[RU#1fan]

We have no QB that can throw it anywhere on the field. By the looks of it, is there anyone to throw to?

III will stack the box and say, "you can't throw. What are you going to do now?"

This.
Not to mention our Defense is in shambles ....see the play of LB and Safety.
I fear that back up QB to Hunt will run wild against us.

 

[miker183]

No matter what, the Offense needs to have longer SUSTAINED (clock eating) drives. The defense played a lot in the last two weeks, it's time the O stepped up to help their teammates.

 

[RURM85]

Good post OP. Very interested to see how our OL handles Smoot and Phillips, the 2 ends. I also think we can score some points on this defense. I'm hoping we should be able to run against them, although Nickerson is a tackling machine, and hope to be more opportunistic with short to medium passing game to keep them honest (Can I see a slant pass, please). Hoping to see Martin and Hicks both more engaged and use Goodwin in the passing game (possibly as a wideout) with more snaps.

 

[BoogieKnight]

Bottom line...Illinois is beatable. Doesn't mean we will win, it's just stating an objective fact. OSU, UM and UW do not look beatable at the moment. Wouldn't be surprised if the first loss among those three teams comes when OSU plays UM in the final week when someone has to lose.

The same way we are worrying about the Illini ends...do they have anyone who can handle Darius on the interior OL?

 

[RAA-1]

Good post OP.--------- Hoping to see Martin and Hicks both more engaged and use Goodwin in the passing game (possibly as a wideout) with more snaps.

Hicks was moved to DB this week out of necessity.

 

[RURM85]

Hicks was moved to DB this week out of necessity.

and I believe he was moved back to RB per Ash yesterday

 

[RU-ROCS]

We should be able to move on these guys as much as we did on Iowa BUT, of course, we have to execute (see: hit wide open receivers and pitch the damn ball when necessary...), .

So your're hoping for single TD?! ;)

(In all seriousness, good post. But, I don't see RU's sorry offense winning this game).

 

[AreYouNUTS]

We have no QB that can throw it anywhere on the field. By the looks of it, is there anyone to throw to?

III will stack the box and say, "you can't throw. What are you going to do now?"

Of course they're going to stack the box. No question. I'm damn well sure that Ash realizes this, too, and hopefully we have game planned appropriately. Bottom line:

- stack the box all you want. You're NOT Iowa's D, let alone anything close to those at OSU or Michigan, so let's see what you've got.

- I'm not a Laviano fan, BUT, he had wide open receivers, backs, and ends, against Iowa so there's no reason he shouldn't have them open on Saturday. This time, bottom line, he's GOT to execute, and do so early, IMHO. Hit those open guys on quick outs and slants, in the 1st quarter, and they'll relax which will open up the run game. We know he can hit the deeper routes, he's done it in the past, hopefully he can come through on Saturday.

Yes, putting faith in him isn't easy, but again...this IS NOT some kind of world-beating defense we're facing. They DO NOT have the athletes that OSU and Mich have. Not even close. That being said I also made it very clear that we've got to win the TO and penalty battles in this one, as well, or forget about it.

 

[RUinPAC10land]

Easiest team we play of the remaining games.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

So...I keep reading posts about how good this Illinois D is, asking "how are we going to move against it," etc., etc., which made me do a little quick research. Now, I know they have 2 very good DE's, with 1 IIRC who will be suspended for the 1st half, but that just means our running game - see: OL - will have to be a major factor on that 1st down play we like to run, right? I also understand that they'll watch the OSU and Michigan films and try to do what they did to completely shut us down, BUT, they DO NOT have the 1st team athletes that those 2 teams have. Period. That, to me makes a big difference in wanting to do something and, well, being able to do it well and consistently. Anyway, check these stats out (I'm tired, just did the basics...):

Total D - 58th (Iowa 31st)
Run D - 85th (Iowa 72nd)
Pass Eff D - 76th (Iowa 33rd)
Sacks - 41st (Iowa 36th)
Scoring D - 86th (Iowa 13th)
(Current Sagarin SOS based on games played only - Illinois 48th (Iowa 71st)

So....why does everyone think so much of The Illini D? We should be able to move on these guys as much as we did on Iowa BUT, of course, we have to execute (see: hit wide open receivers and pitch the damn ball when necessary...), not turn the ball over, and reduce the penalties on O. Believe it or not we've only lost 7 TO's this year. Then again we've only gained 6. What this COULD come down to, IMHO, are ST's....

** took a quick look and, well, we're both equally bad at everything ST-wise, it looks like.

Hope this helps a little!


BTW - looking through those stats it's scary how much better Indiana suddenly is on D but, IIRC, they were incredibly young on that side of the ball the last 2 years. Regardless we'll come back to them in a couple weeks.

good points

And they gave up 34 to Purdue last week...

hmmm......

 

[Knightmoves]

Easiest team we play of the remaining games.

And a home game for us. A loss here will send more shock waves through the already suffering RU fan base.

 

[NorthernKnight]

Of course they're going to stack the box. No question. I'm damn well sure that Ash realizes this, too, and hopefully we have game planned appropriately. Bottom line:

- stack the box all you want. You're NOT Iowa's D, let alone anything close to those at OSU or Michigan, so let's see what you've got.

- I'm not a Laviano fan, BUT, he had wide open receivers, backs, and ends, against Iowa so there's no reason he shouldn't have them open on Saturday. This time, bottom line, he's GOT to execute, and do so early, IMHO. Hit those open guys on quick outs and slants, in the 1st quarter, and they'll relax which will open up the run game. We know he can hit the deeper routes, he's done it in the past, hopefully he can come through on Saturday.

Yes, putting faith in him isn't easy, but again...this IS NOT some kind of world-beating defense we're facing. They DO NOT have the athletes that OSU and Mich have. Not even close. That being said I also made it very clear that we've got to win the TO and penalty battles in this one, as well, or forget about it.

Mehringer had us in the right play 2 times early in the MIchigan game...both throwing over the top. Illinois will not ignore that and they do not have the athletes to play press coverage and blanket our receivers.

We will come out throwing to open up the run and wind up running for over 200 yards against Illinois. And winning by 10.

A funny thing in sports...exceptional opponents make average to sligtly below average teams look extremely poor. Illinois isn't exceptional. We don't know we are yet...we will after the next 6 games.

 

[Wolv RU]

S&P stats (advanced metrics that analyze every play for the season, adjusted for strength of opponent) for Illinois have their defense ranked #70. So average. Notably Illinois is #119 against the rush, so hopefully they have the perfect weakness for this Rutgers offense to exploit.

Rutgers has the #58 defense.

Team Def. S&P+ Rk Rushing
S&P+ Rk Passing
S&P+ Rk SD
S&P+ Rk PD
S&P+ Rk Success
Rt+ Rk IsoPPP+ Rk

Rutgers 28.0 58 104.5 54 94.6 87 96.5 82 101.0 64 110.7 35 93.5 95

Illinois 30.5 70 84.0 119 102.7 59 101.0 62 76.9 122 97.9 76 92.2 97

 

[Wolv RU]

If anyone is wondering, Rutgers has the #120 offense according to S&P, and Illinois is #70 (again).

 

[illman]

I believe you guys win this one.

UI defense? As of now, both DEs are projected first rounders. One of the DTs will likely be on a NFL roster.

So, why am I down on the defense? The back 7 is horrid. The previous staff did not sign D1 athletes. We led Nebraska in the 4th quarter. Then they realized that they just needed to get past the dl, and we had nothing. As of a week ago, UI led the country in tfl per game. No one will stop the DE if they intend to get in the backfield. Nobody, believe me. But that hurts UI if you use the right play calling. Trap, misdirection etc. get the DEs to play the line, and wait 3 seconds for your receivers to get separation from dbs. There you go.

Offense is decent, interesting if Lunt starts. If he is out, the back up is a maniacal qb who seems to enjoy trying to run over lbs. strong kid, suspect arm.

OL is average to slightly above average. One wr can get separation, 2 can catch the ball

The rbs are a good bunch. 3 players with various combinations of speed and power. They have had multiple long runs

That said, Purdue beat us. Rutgers by 3 in a close one.

 

[Wolv RU]

I believe you guys win this one.

UI defense? As of now, both DEs are projected first rounders. One of the DTs will likely be on a NFL roster.

So, why am I down on the defense? The back 7 is horrid. The previous staff did not sign D1 athletes. We led Nebraska in the 4th quarter. Then they realized that they just needed to get past the dl, and we had nothing. As of a week ago, UI led the country in tfl per game. No one will stop the DE if they intend to get in the backfield. Nobody, believe me. But that hurts UI if you use the right play calling. Trap, misdirection etc. get the DEs to play the line, and wait 3 seconds for your receivers to get separation from dbs. There you go.

Offense is decent, interesting if Lunt starts. If he is out, the back up is a maniacal qb who seems to enjoy trying to run over lbs. strong kid, suspect arm.

OL is average to slightly above average. One wr can get separation, 2 can catch the ball

The rbs are a good bunch. 3 players with various combinations of speed and power. They have had multiple long runs

That said, Purdue beat us. Rutgers by 3 in a close one.

Rutgers has not shown even a slight glimmer of hope this year that they can accomplish anything on offense when there is pressure in the backfield. The qbs especially have not shown that they can make the correct reads on plays where they have the option to keep or hand off.

There would have to be improvements in those areas if Rutgers is to be successful on a strong front four.