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Is 2016 a discard season?

RUSK97

RUSK97

Heisman Winner
Dec 28, 2007
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There are some pretty big changes ahead which are not limited to new faces. We're likely looking at a new offensive spread offense and new defensive schemes. I think the talent on our team on all three facets of the ball is generally poor and thin at the strongest points. Ash is going to be shocked at the downgrade in depth. Also for the last three seasons, Ash's role at Arkansas and OSU was to focus on scheming against the Rutgers offense, but now, he's going to get a rude introduction to the Rutgers defense which doesn't exist.

We have to give the new HC some time to develop this team around his vision, but is it safe to say 2016 will be another no-bowl season?
 
You can get to a bowl with 5 wins now, so keep your chin up. We almost went THIS year lol.
 
Way too early to assume a throw-away season. There are a lot of returning players: 8 starters on each of offense and defense. And 37 of 44 on the 2-deep (including 8 OL, 3 RB, plenty of WR, both QB, lots of DL, all the DB).

And if you look at the 2016 schedule, though few gimmie wins, there are at least 8 games that might be considered swing games.
 
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RUSK97 said:
There are some pretty big changes ahead which are not limited to new faces. We're likely looking at a new offensive spread offense and new defensive schemes. I think the talent on our team on all three facets of the ball is generally poor and thin at the strongest points. Ash is going to be shocked at the downgrade in depth. Also for the last three seasons, Ash's role at Arkansas and OSU was to focus on scheming against the Rutgers offense, but now, he's going to get a rude introduction to the Rutgers defense which doesn't exist.

We have to give the new HC some time to develop this team around his vision, but is it safe to say 2016 will be another no-bowl season?
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I think this is a teardown and rebuild scenario. Would be great if we could pull 6-6 or 7-5 out of our hat, but if 2016 is a bad year then so be it.

I would say year three (barring any kind of scandal) is the year to really assess progress. By then you'd have a couple of recruiting classes in the pipeline with players that should be contributing.
 
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2016 would only have been a discard season if Flood was retained. The fact he's gone is enough to get me excited for next year, regardless of win-loss record.

Incidentally, I do think the team has the potential to win at least five games, maybe six.
 
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Looking at the schedule and assuming Ash and his assistants can make good progress on player development, I could see us matching our 2014 record. Win all OOC games, win the Indiana and MD games, and beat Ilini and finally jack up PSU late in the year at home.
 
Next year was gonna be better regardless of the coach, unless we encountered a lot of transfers. This season was the perfect storm between losing a lot to graduation, losing players to off the field issues, and having key players hurt. It also didn't help that the players we lost to off-the-field issues were all from a single position group.
 
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MGSA99 said:
Beat TTFP and I would consider the season a success.
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You guys are nuts, now we may not win like Michigan did this year but 6 and 6 with no major blowouts would be considered a good season, no?
 
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2015 was my mulligan. As much as I'd like to go bowling, as long as there is appreciable development and identity in all three phases of the game, and that we get stronger through the season rather than remain static, I can live with that. It is going to take a while to develop a culture of winning at RU, but the football program can lead the way with an intense and organized coach/staff.
 
As Ash is a D man and DB coach I expect NOT to see a gaping hole in the middle of the field when we have an opponent's
O in a third and 8 or 10 or 12 so our D may get off the field more often. There is hope.
 
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5-7 doesn't guarantee a bowl even if we're in the B1G. Look at the Illini. The schedule is arguably tougher in 2016. Howard is a win. New Mexico is improved and better than Kansas. Washington is probably a better matchup for us than Wash State. Iowa will be better than Wisconsin this year. Illinois is better than Army. Minnesota is better than Nebraska. Michigan & PSU will be better than this year. I think OSU, Michigan State will be weaker than this year, but still losses.
 
motorb54 said:
As Ash is a D man and DB coach I expect NOT to see a gaping hole in the middle of the field when we have an opponent's
O in a third and 8 or 10 or 12 so our D may get off the field more often. There is hope.
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Just like the Wild Knight needed to be a thing of the past after 2009ish--and it was--the soft zone has got to go. We should never have to resort to that other than part of a scheme. it was our default setting and led to us giving up the most 40+ yard plays in the conference (19). No pass rush and a soft zone got us where we are today. Next year will be different due to players returning and healthy, and a new staff with new ideas.
 
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We should get to a bowl game at minimum in 2016. Our talent next year isn't as bad as advertised.
 
At Washington (maybe)
Howard (win)
New Mexico (win)
Iowa (loss)
At OSU (loss)
Michigan (loss)
Illinois (maybe)
at Minnesota (maybe)
Indiana (maybe)
At MSU (loss)
PSU (maybe)
At Maryland (maybe)

We replace Wisconsin and Nebraska for Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois. 2 wins, 4 losses, 6 maybes. 6-6 is definitely possible. Beat PSU, MSU, Michigan or OSU and that should make the season.
 
It depends on expectations and the coaching staff and how you define "throw away." A successful year to me would be one where the team shows demonstrable improvement over the season and real strides towards adopting a new style of play. I don't expect 10-2 but on the other hand a great coaching staff can turn a team around an awful lot in the off-season--see Michigan 2014 versus Michigan 2015--if they have something to work with. And though our talent has undoubtedly seen a decline we still aren't close to an empty cupboard. Ash does have something to work with, like one of the fastest guys in the Big Ten/one of the best kick returners in P5 football, for example. When Schiano took over he had nothing like that, zero.
 
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I think what you really look for next season are the indications that this is a well-coached football team. Guys who are where they are supposed to be, aggressive football for four quarters, game schemes that fit the opponent. If we are doing that, then I'll be happy.

Watched the presser and my take-away is that Ash is ready. He represents a top flight exemplar of one approach to head-coaching. There will be some bumps along the way and I wish he'd gotten a commitment for another half million of assistants money, but it is what it is.

I think job #1 is a top flight OC and if he has to go high for that, so be it. I think for DC, he can bring in a young guy to learn under him for less money -- it could even be Rossi in all honesty if Rossi has the right characteristics to align with Ash's vision (but I don't know anything about Rossi except that he is young and did a good job as special teams coordinator). Ash has to make his dollars go as far as he can, and maybe talk the powers that be into a few more if he can. If not, he has to figure out how to maximise his resources.

I think he is the kind of coach who can get the team behind him, and who will win some recruiting battles, and perhaps the battles he needs to win for the right kind of kids.

I think it's unfortunate that he's doing double work for a month and that he didn't get more bucks for assistants, but I think Day One was a good one. The presser went well for sure, from all perspectives and all three guys. The next big thing to happen is who our OC will be, and if the key commits stay, and maybe he can bring in a guy or two.
 
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My heart says 12-0, my head says 4-5 wins. I think 6 wins would be amazing. But I think it's also unlikely.

But, IMO, there are just too many unknowns at the moment to make any prediction with any kind of confidence. For example, we don't even know who the OC will be yet. Kind of a huge variable. If we hire an OC with experience winning games when over-matched talent-wise, all kinds of good things might happen.

I expect that there will be some growing pains w/game day coaching. Experience matters a lot here and our head coach is new to the job.

We don't yet know what recruits might shift to RU because of Ash - but I expect one or two at least. However, new recruits may not play much in 2016. So not necessarily much of a factor.

So, basically, I'm maintaining pretty low expectations for 2016. But 2017 could be great as the new system is cemented in place w/the players, as skill players have had a full season of tutelage by the new coaching staff. And in 2017, we will be an "older" team again (QBs and DBs are older, O line will have gelled, etc.).

So I think 2016 is a struggle, 2017 is a bowl and 2018 could be all kinds of exciting.
 
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SkilletHead2 said:
and I wish he'd gotten a commitment for another half million of assistants money, but it is what it is.
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Me too. If I'm Ash, I would exceed that budget if necessary and shame RU into paying the excess by saying I'd take it out of my $2M pay if necessary. I wouldn't even have to think about it.

We do not have the kind of player advantages that OSU or Michigan have. To beat them, we need our OC (at least) to be well above average. And we still can't overlook the position or S&C coaches.
 
Temper your expectations fellas. Three straight years of lousy recruiting has left us with serious depth issues at a lot of positions. I'm just looking for improvement, however, we play incredibly difficult schedule next year, even New Mexico has been completely turned around, so getting to 5 wins I think would be a huge achievement, anything more and oh boy are we going to be happy campers in the future!
 
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RUSK97 said:
There are some pretty big changes ahead which are not limited to new faces. We're likely looking at a new offensive spread offense and new defensive schemes. I think the talent on our team on all three facets of the ball is generally poor and thin at the strongest points. Ash is going to be shocked at the downgrade in depth. Also for the last three seasons, Ash's role at Arkansas and OSU was to focus on scheming against the Rutgers offense, but now, he's going to get a rude introduction to the Rutgers defense which doesn't exist.

We have to give the new HC some time to develop this team around his vision, but is it safe to say 2016 will be another no-bowl season?
Click to expand...
8 starters returning on both offense and defense. Coach those guys up properly...8 and 5 or 9 and 4 is possible in my opinion.
 
This year, with Flood, we almost beat MSU, should have beaten WSU and were up big on Maryland at the half. Those games turn out differently and we are 8-4 and there is a good chance Flood is back. This team has a enough talent to win with an upgrade in coaching. Not likely enough to win the division but certainly enough to go bowling. I will be very disappointed in anything less than 7 wins.
 
rbled said:
This year, with Flood, we almost beat MSU, should have beaten WSU and were up big on Maryland at the half. Those games turn out differently and we are 8-4 and there is a good chance Flood is back. This team has a enough talent to win with an upgrade in coaching. Not likely enough to win the division but certainly enough to go bowling. I will be very disappointed in anything less than 7 wins.
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Good points. But if we're going to be installing completely new offensive and defensive approaches, there's going to be a learning curve. Also, I expect Michigan, MSU and MD to be tougher games next year.
 
This is a big week - let's see if he can bring in a Juco or 2 (or 4) on D.
 
Our defense and special y teams were bad. The OL was bad. No one other than Carroo seems to know how to catch and he is gone. Also our QB sucked.

How on Earth can anyone realistically think we have any chance in hell of winning more than 6 games next year?

Hell, 6 wins while not impossible will be tough.

I think too many people here are underestimating how much flood destroyed this program. That is scary.

It took a win against a fcs school, the worst school in the fbs, win against army and an epic comeback just to get to 4 wins this year.

Time to wake up people!

The most important thing is that now at long last we have a legit shot to turn things around and even get back to 2006 levels at some point. But it will take years.
 
We'll get to see Relentless "D". Pack of hungry wolves. That by itself will be worth watching.
 
Who can consistently get open at WR? Who is playing LT that you feel comfortable about? Who is playing LB next season that wasn't another lightly recruited kid?

6-6 is a miracle job next year. Ash needs to recruit his ass off and get rid of the dead weight in winter and spring.
 
Scarlet_Scourge said:
Our defense and special y teams were bad. The OL was bad. No one other than Carroo seems to know how to catch and he is gone. Also our QB sucked.

How on Earth can anyone realistically think we have any chance in hell of winning more than 6 games next year?

Hell, 6 wins while not impossible will be tough.

I think too many people here are underestimating how much flood destroyed this program. That is scary.

It took a win against a fcs school, the worst school in the fbs, win against army and an epic comeback just to get to 4 wins this year.

Time to wake up people!

The most important thing is that now at long last we have a legit shot to turn things around and even get back to 2006 levels at some point. But it will take years.
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Jacobs holds on to the pick against WSU and just hold on to a big lead against MD and we are 6-6 this year. It is not out of the question with the guys coming back to achieve that type of season.
 
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No such thing as a throw away season. Northwestern was 5-7 in 2013 and 14, and won 10 this year.
 
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