OT RUnumbers RuReal and weather weenies
- Thread starter FELONIOUSMONK
- Start date
There is potential for a nor'easter Sunday night into Monday, but this early in the season with a very warm ocean and without a lot of cold air in place, the best bet would be rain, although snow chances would be greater well inland and can't be ruled out for the I-95 corridor this far out.
We are getting buried with snow then? [roll]
(just ribbing you, man--still mad about that Penn State debacle)
Debacle? Given how shitty this year was, the surprise sleet and snow in the 3Q was the high point of the season for me, lol...
Please don't use words that start with "harb," due to images of sleepovers and intense weirdness. TIA.
Looks like it's going to get a little chilly later next week:
http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11...ld-anomaly-forecast-across-almost-entire-usa/
http://www.climatedepot.com/2016/11...ld-anomaly-forecast-across-almost-entire-usa/
What he said, but with less enthusiasm, i.e. not so much of a chance of snow except in the highest elevations.
Yep, winter is coming, although that article is overstated, especially for our area, which will be colder than normal, but not record-breaking (at least not forecast that way now). Rockies and midwest should get very cold...
I hadn't checked in on WxRisk (DT) in awhile, but checked his FB page today and he had a hilarious skewering of Climate Depot, calling them Click Bait Weather Whores, lol. DT is generally a skeptic on many things and a "centrist" on global warming, which is kind of where I am. He hates when people on the left or the right overinflate their climate claims, i.e., when lefties scream about every hurricane being due to GW or when righties think every cold wave proves that GW is a hoax.
He firmly believes that global warming is occurring (very hard to argue with that) and is largely anthropogenic in nature, but that the world is not about to catch fire and we don't all need to head back to our caves to save the planet. Anyway, here's what he wrote today about the Climate Depot "article." He was a little tougher than I was, lol.
"The silly and over the top ANTI AGW web site CLIMATE DEPOT took this post and made it into a sensationalist headline for their political agenda. The click bait whores at CLIMATE DEPOT did this a 2nd time by taking Paul Vencore's video and playing up or misusing that (Paul is a great operational meteorologist and a friend)."
https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=wxriskcom
By the way, over the past couple of years, we've been in the midst of the warmest global average temperatures in the last few hundred years, likely due to a combination of continued global warming and the Super El Nino we've had for a couple of years (which is now over). Will be interesting to see how far global temps fall now that the El Nino is over.
For a reminder of how big of an impact El Nino can have, below is an excerpt from a post from a guy on American Wx, which shows just how warm last December was relative to normal in NYC.
Mean temperature: 50.8° (previous warmest: 44.1°, 2001)
Record high maximum temperatures: 5
Record high minimum temperatures: 7
Days with low temperatures of 40° or above: 23 (old record: 14, 1982)
Days with low temperatures of 50° or above: 11 (old record: 5, 1982, 1998)
Days with high temperatures of 50° or above: 24 (old record: 19, 1891)
Days with high temperatures of 60° or above: 11 (old record: 8, 1998)
Well, the nor'easter threat is gone, but there will be a weak disturbance passing well to our NW on Sunday night and it will likely trigger some precip between midnight and 8 am Monday. As of now, the NWS is calling for this light precip to be snow (up to 1") for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, and most of NJ north of about I-78, as well as from NYC on northward. Could be some slick spots for the Monday morning commute, especially before 8-9 am, when the sun will be up high enough to do some melting.
For the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC, the forecast is trickier, as there is supposed to be a little less precip and temps will likely be 1-2F above freezing, meaning any snow that falls will have a hard time accumulating, even overnight, unless there is enough intensity (unlikely) to overcome melting. Could easily see this as 1/2" of snow on cartops and grassy surfaces, but not on paved surfaces. This event will likely be rain or mixed rain/snow near the coast with little to no accumulation. This is the kind of forecast that could easily be off by 0.05" of precip, i.e., a forecast of 1/2" of snow really could be anywhere from 0-1" of snow.
NWS discussion is below and the NWS has new maps. I feel like Navin R. Johnson when the new phonebooks came out, lol...
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Sunday night and early Monday morning prior to 9 am...Cloudy with
a 2 to 7 hour period of pcpn (mainly midnight to 8 am). Light rain
Delmarva, and a mix of light r/s vcnty PHl-ACY and generally all
light snow near and N of I-78. A small snow accumulation is
anticipated in the north, since qpf should generally be under one
tenth inch. No matter, a slippery covering of half an inch to an
inch is expected on all untreated surfaces (nighttime) for ne PA
into nw NJ. Fcst temps may be two degrees too cool and that could
alter-lower any accum potential s of I-78. Light wind.
Confidence: Above average.
As expected (NWS backed off on snow for I-95 on Sat afternoon, so I didn't make any follow up posts), little to no snow fell near the I-95 corridor, but not too far NW of I-95 a coating to 1/2" fell and well inland 1-2" fell, i.e., in the Poconos, Sussex County, parts of Warren/Morris/Passaic, the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee, etc. No flakes in Metuchen.
Similar snowfall picture emerging for Tuesday night, with 1-2" likely in the same places and little to no snowfall anywhere south of 80. Could be a decent snowfall north of I-84 if it stays snow.
And then it gets fairly cold with temps not getting out of the 30s for most folks on Fri/Sat/Sun (about 10F below normal or so) - not record cold but cold. Longer term, we could be in for some winter over the next 2-3 weeks, with below normal temps and chances of snow, although some luck is needed to get the cold and precip at the same time for snow.
Similar snowfall picture emerging for Tuesday night, with 1-2" likely in the same places and little to no snowfall anywhere south of 80. Could be a decent snowfall north of I-84 if it stays snow.
And then it gets fairly cold with temps not getting out of the 30s for most folks on Fri/Sat/Sun (about 10F below normal or so) - not record cold but cold. Longer term, we could be in for some winter over the next 2-3 weeks, with below normal temps and chances of snow, although some luck is needed to get the cold and precip at the same time for snow.
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