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OT - The Circus on Showtime

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RUfinal4

Heisman Winner
Apr 24, 2006
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Anyone watch this show? They give a really nice perspective for the presidential election.

While I was aware of this they showed how Florida may be the key state in this election.

They say the Democrats have 240 votes just about locked up based on traditional Democratic states (NJ being on of them) while the Republicans have around 180 guaranteed votes (I forget if they said 179 or 186 on the show). This is based on the past 6-12 presidential elections where certain states have voted for 1 side or the other 100% of the time. Since you need 270 to win the election, the Dems just need Florida and 1 other battleground state to win the presidency.

here are the battleground states per Politico:
  • Colorado (9) - Clinton is up in 4 of 5 polls
  • Florida (29) - is a toss up with each candidate up in 2 polls and tied in the 5th
  • Iowa (6) - is almost a toss up with Trump up in 3 pools, tied in another, and Clinton up in the 5th
  • Michigan (16) - Clinton up in all polls so far
  • Nevada (6)- is a toss up with Trump up in 3 polls and Clinton in 2
  • New Hampshire (4) - Clinton up in all polls so far
  • North Carolina (15) - is almost a toss up with Trump up in 3 pools, tied in another, and Clinton up in the 5th
  • Ohio (18) - Trump up in most polls so far
  • Pennsylvania (20) - Clinton up in all polls so far
  • Virginia (13) - Clinton up in all polls so far (VP candidate is Governor of VA)
  • Wisconsin (10) - Clinton up in all polls so far
For the Dems - if they have VA, NH, and CO locked up they are at 266. Wisconsin would put Clinton over the top.

Trump would need to get almost all the battleground states while only giving up VA (13), WI (10) or CO (9), and NH (4).


of course a lot can change starting tonight with the debate.
 
Proud NJ Sports Fan said:
Can't see how PA is a Demmy state, practically everyone I've ever encountered from PA leans Right.
Click to expand...
You know the old Pennsyltucky saying? You have Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Kentucky(or Alabama) in between. That is pretty much how people vote around here. While there are plenty of trailers with confederate flags and trump signs they are out numbered by those who live in the city and the suburbs.
 
PSU_Nut said:
You know the old Pennsyltucky saying? You have Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Kentucky(or Alabama) in between. That is pretty much how people vote around here. While there are plenty of trailers with confederate flags and trump signs they are out numbered by those who live in the city and the suburbs.
Click to expand...

NY can be similar too with downstate (NYC, Rockland, Westchester, and Western Long Island) leaning as Dems you have the whole upstate area that is very rural and leans to the Repubs.

per the last census the NY State population was about 19 mil.
  • NYC - 8.4 mil
  • Nassau County LI population - 1.3 mil
  • Suffolk County LI population - 1.5 mil
  • Westchester population - 960k
  • Rockland population - 320k
Total of the downstate dem areas - 12.48 mil (more thasn half of the NY residents)

in PA - 12.79 Mil residents
  • Philly - 1.53 mil
  • Pittsburgh - 305k
  • Bucks county - 626k
  • Montgomery Cty - 820k
  • Delaware Cty- 561k
  • Lehigh Cty - 350k
  • Allegheny Cty - 1.2 mil
Total of Cities and city bordering counties - 5.39 mil (less than half of the PA residents)
 
PSU_Nut said:
Why? If the majority of the population lives in the cities shouldn't the majority have more pool?
Click to expand...

Seemingly if you look just on the surface but we do live in a Republic not a Democracy. This country is mostly NOT based on majority rule.
 
Proud NJ Sports Fan said:
Can't see how PA is a Demmy state, practically everyone I've ever encountered from PA leans Right.
Click to expand...

You need to go back to 1988 to find a Republican winning the state in a Presidential election.


Obama +5.4
Obama +10.3
Kerry +2.5
Gore +4.2
Clinton +9.2
Clinton +9.0
H.W. Bush +2.3

Reagan won PA twice, Carter won in 76.
 
PSU_Nut said:
Why? If the majority of the population lives in the cities shouldn't the majority have more pool?
Click to expand...

Why would you argue that with someone from Jersey? Haven't you ever heard of the Connecticut Compromise?
 
Yes, have watched it for almost a year now.


Was amazing to see how there "I know everything about politics" outlook shifted once they realized that their world was completely changing.
 
So are PA 20 votes part of Clintons 240 or part of the battle ground votes?
 
One change i would like to see with the electoral college is to eliminate a winner take all from each state. make each electoral vote district a separate vote. So if the Dems win 11 of NJ's votes they only get 8 and not the entire 14 (which is what happened in 2012 with Obama winning 58% of the popular vote). While it can still lead to a candidate winning while losing the popular vote it also makes each electoral district important.

That is why in states like Florida the candidates tend to mostly campaign in heavily populated areas (Tampa, Orlando, and Miami).

2012 NJ Presidential voting
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/new-jersey/
 
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RUfinal4 said:
One change i would like to see with the electoral college is to eliminate a winner take all from each state. make each electoral vote district a separate vote. So if the Dems win 11 of NJ's votes they only get 8 and not the entire 14 (which is what happened in 2012 with Obama winning 58% of the popular vote). While it can still lead to a candidate winning while losing the popular vote it also makes each electoral district important.

That is why in states like Florida the candidates tend to mostly campaign in heavily populated areas (Tampa, Orlando, and Miami).

2012 NJ Presidential voting
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/results/president/new-jersey/
Click to expand...
Not sure what you mean there. But I'd get rid of the electoral college all together.
 
Proud NJ Sports Fan said:
I thought they were smarter in PA then to consistently vote in demmys, my bad.
Click to expand...
Lots of Jersey dems fleeing the spending they demanded in New Jersey, and the taxes to pay for it, end up in PA and vote for dems. They take their public "service" pensions there to avoid jersey taxes. Goerge Zoffinger, of the famous Mulcahy "scandal" and also chief architect of Xanadu, famously said he was going to do just that.. retire to a far in PA and avoid Jersey taxes.
 
This week's episode should be very good with their behind the scenes look at the debate and the aftermath.

In my opinion Clinton won the debate which may have helped her get a few undecided voters but think the Trump supporters are not changing their minds since his bravado is what they really like along with some being strong Republican supporters.
 
RUfinal4 said:
This week's episode should be very good with their behind the scenes look at the debate and the aftermath.

In my opinion Clinton won the debate which may have helped her get a few undecided voters but think the Trump supporters are not changing their minds since his bravado is what they really like along with some being strong Republican supporters.
Click to expand...

I can't see how Hillary won anything last night.
All she did was do that fake grin and read scripted notes.
 
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