A lot of it is based on the switch to summer grade mentioned above. Not a chemical engineer so for lack of a better term you can have more "junk" in the winter gasoline than in the summer. In the winter for example, a higher % of butane (a cheap component) can go into the formulation.
The strike had a minimal impact. The only refinery impacted by it was Tesoro's Martinez refinery. The refinery was already down for maintenance, so instead of risking problems during a restart, Tesoro kept it down until the labor dispute was settled.
Saudi activity in Yemen created a bit of a price risk in oil. The geopolitical risk went MIA for a little while, but appears to be back now not because Yemen is some big supplier, but who can be pulled in by the conflict.
Crude oil prices have bounced nicely WTI (June now) is around $56.50/bbl and Brent (the global benchmark) is a little over $62/bbl. At the same time, US crude oil inventories are >483 million bbl. All that oil has to be turned into something at some point. I don't see prices in NJ getting to $3 this year, and think the prices wilth the $1 in front will be back again this fall.
