Post Mortem by Lion - Delayed, RU vs MSU

[lion1983]

Delayed - was away much of the weekend. Also was at the game, not keeping my usual scorekeeping during the game as usual - and just cannot rewatch the game to record the flow. And I have not read anything on the Board yet.

First ... Well ... I am an inherent optimist ... that said ... good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose ... MSU found a way to win - like they have nearly every game this year ... and RU found a way to lose ... like they have all too often this season.

Second, I have consistently said RU cannot beat a single team in the Big 10 if NEITHER Harper NOR Bailey are good offensively. So ... Harper barely played - and probably should not have played (he had a couple of moments, but also obviously had an ankle issue, that also clearly was aggravated during the game. Watching him after he left the game for the last time (we had a direct view of him standing at the back of the huddle) and literally could not put any weight on his ankle, keeping his foot up off the floor. Bailey actually played quite well, in my opinion (yes a couple of defensive breakdowns, but still pretty solid), and he scored 18 points ... BUT He hit his 1st 2 FG's - great shots, NBA shots ... then missed his next 13 FG tries - surrounded by 8-8 FT, salvaging his scoring - and hit his last 2 FG's. Yet ... though RU needed a terrific and efficient scoring night from Bailey, obviously - and did not get it - RU STILL had its opportunities.

Third, RU had way too many scoring droughts - credit to MSU's solid fundamentally sound defense ... but also, just plain shooting woes. Many of Bailey's misses were good shots - several point blank attempts off his 7 offensive rebounds, a number of good pull-up jumpers (he did miss several very well defended tries - credit to MSU - mainly Coen Carr). But even then, the OTHER main culprits were as, or more, responsible for these droughts. In particular ... Martini and Acuff. Martini and Acuff were a combined 1-11 FG, 1-10 from 3. Each took ONE bad 3-point shot - that poor shot by each of them way too far in distance (Acuff's forced an unnecessary transition 3 at an important moment in the 1st half). Still, of their 8 unforced 3-point FG tries, ALLL were WIDE open ... and Acuff hit just the 1, missing his other 3 open 3-pointers, and Martini missed all his 4 unforced 3-pointers. The TERTIARY cause for several RU droughts was Sommerville - who I felt played a very good game, generally, actually - but though they were wide open, took and missed 2 3-pointers (still only has made 1 all season, I think), and missed a good and open 14' jumper face up in the middle of a crucial RU 2nd half drought, and took a bad 14' moderately open jumper in the middle of a 1st half drought (why bad? He was on the move and pulled up - a pull-up off the dribble is a bad shot for him, whereas a faceup and shoot of the same distance is fine, IMO).

Fourth, RU's defense was ... good enough, IMO. It was not great, but had a number of good to better than good moments. RU has played many much worse defensive games (i know, a low hurdle). And did allow too high a percentage of 2-point FG makes. Even so, IMO, RU's defense was solid - especially without Ogbole available in the post. Yes, MSU's post players went 7-8 FG from 2-poiunt range ... but those players only GOT 8 shots amongst the 4 4 and 5 players (Zapala, Kohler, Booker and Cooper) ... they average 18 FG attempts per game and against RU got just 8. I thought Sommerville, Grant ... and yes, even Martini and Bailey - played pretty solid "deny" defense, fronting very well. Also, I felt RU actually limited MSU's transition offense (though the box score indicated 21 fast break points ... it seemed fewer). And though MSU outrebounded RU by a lot (44-34), RU did better limiting MSU to 10 offensive rebounds, while grabbing 19 of their own offensive rebounds (led by Bailey's 7). Also, RU forced MSU into 15 turnovers (while committing just 6 themselves), and those MSU turnovers WERE forced: 10 steals - by practically everyone (Bailey, Williams, Derkack with 2 each, Sommerville, Acuff, Harper and Martini with 1 each). No, RU played good enough defense if Bailey, Martini and Acuff had hit just 2-3 more shots BETWEEN them (they were 5-28 combined - 8-28 and I think RU wins) - remember many of MSU's points were FT's at the end when RU was fouling to lengthen the game. If Martini and Acuff , or Bailey also, had hit just 2-3 more of their open shots earlier in the 1st and 2nd halves, then RU keeps MSU in the low 70's points - and has a good shot to win (not guaranteed, but good chance). I should not there was ONE real problem defensively: MSU has ONE player who is a consistently good 3-poin shooter (though he does not take a high volume of them) ... Richardson. He is the ONE MSU player you just cannot allow free and open 3-point looks. yet the RU defenders kept allowing him wide open looks, losing him (3-4 3-pointers) - Acuff and Williams were the 2 main culprits.

Fifth, I think in the end, Harper's absence was not the cause of the loss. Derkack had a career night - basically producing Harper type of all around shooting, scoring, rebounding, play-making: 26 points on 7-11 FG, 4-7 3-point, 8-9mFT. 4 rebounds, 2 steals ... and very high energy. The primary cause was 2-fold: A not good FG% night by Bailey PLUS awful open shooting by Acuff and Martini.

Individually:

Harper should probably not have been playing.

Bailey just missed shots, many of them good ones - otherwise I thought played well. Youy could tell how tired he was in the last 10 minutes of the game (played 39 minutes) - but still hit his FT's and made consistent effort on the backboard rebounding. He did get caught "looking" on one Coen Carr drive/alley oop - but Grant got caught once there also. Generally, FYI, Bailey defended against Holloman (3-7 FG and 3 turnovers), Akins (several RU players covered Akins - ho was just 3-14 FG) and Fears (4 turnovers).

Derkack had a career game - in every way, and willed RU to be competitive.

Grant deserves a comment: he played pretty well, I thought (9 points, 5 rebounds, a block - I thought 2 blocks actually, 2-4 from 3) ... and more importantly, I think he is going to be a REALLY good player - potentially RU finally has a freshman who has the real potential to bloom as a sophomore into a consistent double digit scorer, the way other teams have had, the way we hoped Simpson would have - but did not. I see Grant as a potential 11=12 ppg scorer next season, along with 6 reb/g and good defense - at the 4.

Williams was ... okay, no more.

Somerville was relatively solid on defense - especially denying the ball. He was physical, and though he did make errors, was consistently making great effort defensively. Offesnievly, he got decent shots - but took 3 bad shots (covered above).

Davis was ... not effective. Defensively he was fine. BVut he foolishly drove to the rim in transition against the 6'10" athletic Booker, with the predictable result of anb easy blocked shot ... he forced anotheer mid-range and missed a 3 -open, but he missed.

Acuff: Was terrible in a game RU needed him to be good. One of RU's worst defenders in this game, 1-6 FG, 1-5 from 3.

Martini: Actually played decently - EXCEPT ... sigh ... 0-5 3-pointers, mostly wide open.

Hayes was not damaging, at least. he got no open looks, did not do a lot on the court in his 12 minutes - but also did no damage I could see (i.e. his defense was not obviously bad this game).

Dortch ... sigh ... I would NOT have played him to give up his red shirt ... the 3 minutes he played could have been just as easily been given to Martini or Hayes - or even Davis (even of Davis was not playing well). He di get credit for a blocked shot and a rebound - and IS really tall ... but I did not see the point.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Ace had 0 blocks, 2 defensive rebounds and 0 assists and missed 13 straight shots. You are an optimist and saying he had a good game.

 

[goru7]

Great recap but disagree in a few spots. Pike in the second half went with Martini and JMike and took Grant off the floor after he hit a 3 for 8-10 minutes. He didn’t play Dortch in the second half as his potential shot blocking and rebounding would have helped. Taking Dylan Grant off the floor was ludicrous.
Everyone is giving Jmike a pass defensively probably because our whole team is challenged but I think his defense has been terrible. He doesn’t disrupt the other team’s point guard. He never gets in their grill, he gets screened all the time and never fights over screens hard enough. He did the same against Princeton allowing Martini to get switched on Lee 3 straight times( Pike’s mistake as well). Offensively , Jmike was terrible , once again bringing his old habit of driving thru trees and it ends up being swatted leading to MSU fast break and score. He had one put back layup on an offensive rebound but that was the extent of the contribution. Did not deserve his minutes.

Thought Pike should have gone to a 2 man game with ACE and Lathan to get ACE an easier look on a pick and pop or just some more room for his jumper. Might not have made a difference since he was just off but MSU did not give him anything easy and Pike could have designed some stuff to make it easier. Pike besides taking Dylan Grant out of the game in the second half right after he hit a 3 , also took Lathan out after he made a nice post move and layup. He does this repeatedly and it drives me nuts. Lathan finally got some rhythm and he gets pulled. He was put back in the game later but momentum was lost. Lathan is capable of hitting that mid range shot consistently and capable of hitting the 3’s but did not yesterday. I am not killing him for taking those shots as all of them were open.
The disappointment with Jeremiah is beyond. His reckless totally out of control drive that he missed off the backboard badly , led to MSU runout and Adkin’s 3 for a crucial 5 point swing. He plays with low IQ for a captain and a senior , who we needed badly and came up so so short.

 

[seansherm]

Great recap but disagree in a few spots. Pike in the second half went with Martini and JMike and took Grant off the floor after he hit a 3 for 8-10 minutes. He didn’t play Dortch in the second half as his potential shot blocking and rebounding would have helped. Taking Dylan Grant off the floor was ludicrous.
Everyone is giving Jmike a pass defensively probably because our whole team is challenged but I think his defense has been terrible. He doesn’t disrupt the other team’s point guard. He never gets in their grill, he gets screened all the time and never fights over screens hard enough. He did the same against Princeton allowing Martini to get switched on Lee 3 straight times( Pike’s mistake as well). Offensively , Jmike was terrible , once again bringing his old habit of driving thru trees and it ends up being swatted leading to MSU fast break and score. He had one put back layup on an offensive rebound but that was the extent of the contribution. Did not deserve his minutes.

Thought Pike should have gone to a 2 man game with ACE and Lathan to get ACE an easier look on a pick and pop or just some more room for his jumper. Might not have made a difference since he was just off but MSU did not give him anything easy and Pike could have designed some stuff to make it easier. Pike besides taking Dylan Grant out of the game in the second half right after he hit a 3 , also took Lathan out after he made a nice post move and layup. He does this repeatedly and it drives me nuts. Lathan finally got some rhythm and he gets pulled. He was put back in the game later but momentum was lost. Lathan is capable of hitting that mid range shot consistently and capable of hitting the 3’s but did not yesterday. I am not killing him for taking those shots as all of them were open.
The disappointment with Jeremiah is beyond. His reckless totally out of control drive that he missed off the backboard badly , led to MSU runout and Adkin’s 3 for a crucial 5 point swing. He plays with low IQ for a captain and a senior , who we needed badly and came up so so short.

At one point Grant was like the same 0-5 or 1-6 or so that Acuff and Martini were around until he hit his last two shots when we were trying to make it respectable in the last minute or two. He did hit a three early in the 2nd half, and then was removed like a minute and half later, along with Sommerville down 2. Came back in down 5 I think and immediately missed a lay up.

 

[goru7]

At one point Grant was like the same 0-5 or 1-6 or so that Acuff and Martini were around until he hit his last two shots when we were trying to make it respectable in the last minute or two. He did hit a three early in the 2nd half, and then was removed like a minute and half later, along with Sommerville down 2. Came back in down 5 I think and immediately missed a lay up.

He sat him right after he made a 3 and sat Somerville right after he hit his post move . Again , why ? You said it was a 2 point game or even if it was 4 points. Then buried Grant on the bench for 8 minutes. Pike chose Martini and JMike. Couldn’t have been a worst decision. Grant could give you offensive rebounds , block some shots. Martini a zero.

 

[RW90]

Great recap but disagree in a few spots. Pike in the second half went with Martini and JMike and took Grant off the floor after he hit a 3 for 8-10 minutes. He didn’t play Dortch in the second half as his potential shot blocking and rebounding would have helped. Taking Dylan Grant off the floor was ludicrous.
Everyone is giving Jmike a pass defensively probably because our whole team is challenged but I think his defense has been terrible. He doesn’t disrupt the other team’s point guard. He never gets in their grill, he gets screened all the time and never fights over screens hard enough. He did the same against Princeton allowing Martini to get switched on Lee 3 straight times( Pike’s mistake as well). Offensively , Jmike was terrible , once again bringing his old habit of driving thru trees and it ends up being swatted leading to MSU fast break and score. He had one put back layup on an offensive rebound but that was the extent of the contribution. Did not deserve his minutes.

Thought Pike should have gone to a 2 man game with ACE and Lathan to get ACE an easier look on a pick and pop or just some more room for his jumper. Might not have made a difference since he was just off but MSU did not give him anything easy and Pike could have designed some stuff to make it easier. Pike besides taking Dylan Grant out of the game in the second half right after he hit a 3 , also took Lathan out after he made a nice post move and layup. He does this repeatedly and it drives me nuts. Lathan finally got some rhythm and he gets pulled. He was put back in the game later but momentum was lost. Lathan is capable of hitting that mid range shot consistently and capable of hitting the 3’s but did not yesterday. I am not killing him for taking those shots as all of them were open.
The disappointment with Jeremiah is beyond. His reckless totally out of control drive that he missed off the backboard badly , led to MSU runout and Adkin’s 3 for a crucial 5 point swing. He plays with low IQ for a captain and a senior , who we needed badly and came up so so short.

Agreed 100%. I just don't see the defensive prowess many like to attribute to JMike. Sadly on his one drive, as soon as he made his cut I just knew that it wasn't going to end well.

I also think Pike's constant substitution pattern is hurting way more than in years past. The constant player rotation has prevented Sommerville, Grant and even Dercack from being able to get into any rhythm to develop their confidence. I still can't imagine how Grant could possibly have been that poor in practice to get buried on the bench for the better part of this season.

 

[Wagram97]

The disappointment in JWill is just another reminder of the list of things discussed prior to the season, if any of the points had turned out to be true, the season could have been entirely different up till now. We didn't need all to turn out true, just really one of them.

Harper/Bailey - Being a dynamic duo, instead we've either have had only 1 available or if playing together, only one seems to be dynamic.

JWill - Veteran leadership and a 3rd scoring option. All we heard about is all summer long was how he stayed on campus and just spent it in the gym. He didn't have to be 20pt a game player, even just a 10pt a game steady veteran leader.

Transfers - If just one, just one, lived up to the stats on paper, could be entirely different. And Acuff didn't need to be leading scorer, maybe 6 pts again, some key 3's at the right time, Martini didn't need to be leading in any stats, but just veteran high IQ leadership, with providing some consistent scoring, even just 6 to 8 pts a game and some key defense at times.

 

[goru7]

Agreed 100%. I just don't see the defensive prowess many like to attribute to JMike. Sadly on his one drive, as soon as he made his cut I just knew that it wasn't going to end well.

I also think Pike's constant substitution pattern is hurting way more than in years past. The constant player rotation has prevented Sommerville, Grant and even Dercack from being able to get into any rhythm to develop their confidence. I still can't imagine how Grant could possibly have been that poor in practice to get buried on the bench for the better part of this season.

As I have previously posted , I was lucky enough to be invited to 2 preseason practices in early and mid October. Grant was really good in practice. We were playing against zone since they assumed teams could not handle Dylan or ACE one on one , and ACE was finding Grant cutting in from the corner for dunks. Grant was aggressive going to the hole and also shooting threes. If I am not mistaken he won player of the week for the 5-6 practice weeks at full go. I expected him to be a crucial player in the rotation.
I was shocked he put him in cold against Texas A&M but even more shocked he sat him as a Coaches Decision “ DNP” for all those games thereafter. One of Pike’s mistakes this year.

 

[seansherm]

He sat him right after he made a 3 and sat Somerville right after he hit his post move . Again , why ? You said it was a 2 point game or even if it was 4 points. Then buried Grant on the bench for 8 minutes. Pike chose Martini and JMike. Couldn’t have been a worst decision. Grant could give you offensive rebounds , block some shots. Martini a zero.

It's all guesswork. Grant had 5 boards in 23 minutes, Martini 2 in ten, pretty much the same rate. That three made Grant 1-6 on the game though.
I do agree that Pike has a weird habit of sitting guys after a made shot. I don't know if its to send them to the bench after a positive or what the thinking is.

 

[goru7]

It's all guesswork. Grant had 5 boards in 23 minutes, Martini 2 in ten, pretty much the same rate. That three made Grant 1-6 on the game though.
I do agree that Pike has a weird habit of sitting guys after a made shot. I don't know if its to send them to the bench after a positive or what the thinking is.

Doubtful it is guesswork. Pike and staff decided 4 games ago that Dylan Grant should be the starter . Pike came to that conclusion slowly because his stubbornness thinking MARTINI was going to somehow help us. He has helped us in 1 game , Nebraska. He has been close to terrible with multiple games of 0 points , 0 offensive or defensive rebounds, 0 steals , 0 assists and of course 1-2 turnovers . The horrendous shooting from him , PJ and Acuff has torpedoed a number of games and turned wins into losses.
Obvious to anyone MSU was very athletic and Grant had the best chance against them as compared to Martini. Just an awful mistake.

 

[seansherm]

Doubtful it is guesswork. Pike and staff decided 4 games ago that Dylan Grant should be the starter . Pike came to that conclusion slowly because his stubbornness thinking MARTINI was going to somehow help us. He has helped us in 1 game , Nebraska. He has been close to terrible with multiple games of 0 points , 0 offensive or defensive rebounds, 0 steals , 0 assists and of course 1-2 turnovers . The horrendous shooting from him , PJ and Acuff has torpedoed a number of games and turned wins into losses.
Obvious to anyone MSU was very athletic and Grant had the best chance against them as compared to Martini. Just an awful mistake.

It's one game and Grant had been just as worthless to that point though. All I'm saying. I hated the Martini pick up, you don't have to tell me how little he's added, he's been worse than I was even expecting.

 

[Mr Magoo]

Delayed - was away much of the weekend. Also was at the game, not keeping my usual scorekeeping during the game as usual - and just cannot rewatch the game to record the flow. And I have not read anything on the Board yet.

First ... Well ... I am an inherent optimist ... that said ... good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose ... MSU found a way to win - like they have nearly every game this year ... and RU found a way to lose ... like they have all too often this season.

Second, I have consistently said RU cannot beat a single team in the Big 10 if NEITHER Harper NOR Bailey are good offensively. So ... Harper barely played - and probably should not have played (he had a couple of moments, but also obviously had an ankle issue, that also clearly was aggravated during the game. Watching him after he left the game for the last time (we had a direct view of him standing at the back of the huddle) and literally could not put any weight on his ankle, keeping his foot up off the floor. Bailey actually played quite well, in my opinion (yes a couple of defensive breakdowns, but still pretty solid), and he scored 18 points ... BUT He hit his 1st 2 FG's - great shots, NBA shots ... then missed his next 13 FG tries - surrounded by 8-8 FT, salvaging his scoring - and hit his last 2 FG's. Yet ... though RU needed a terrific and efficient scoring night from Bailey, obviously - and did not get it - RU STILL had its opportunities.

Third, RU had way too many scoring droughts - credit to MSU's solid fundamentally sound defense ... but also, just plain shooting woes. Many of Bailey's misses were good shots - several point blank attempts off his 7 offensive rebounds, a number of good pull-up jumpers (he did miss several very well defended tries - credit to MSU - mainly Coen Carr). But even then, the OTHER main culprits were as, or more, responsible for these droughts. In particular ... Martini and Acuff. Martini and Acuff were a combined 1-11 FG, 1-10 from 3. Each took ONE bad 3-point shot - that poor shot by each of them way too far in distance (Acuff's forced an unnecessary transition 3 at an important moment in the 1st half). Still, of their 8 unforced 3-point FG tries, ALLL were WIDE open ... and Acuff hit just the 1, missing his other 3 open 3-pointers, and Martini missed all his 4 unforced 3-pointers. The TERTIARY cause for several RU droughts was Sommerville - who I felt played a very good game, generally, actually - but though they were wide open, took and missed 2 3-pointers (still only has made 1 all season, I think), and missed a good and open 14' jumper face up in the middle of a crucial RU 2nd half drought, and took a bad 14' moderately open jumper in the middle of a 1st half drought (why bad? He was on the move and pulled up - a pull-up off the dribble is a bad shot for him, whereas a faceup and shoot of the same distance is fine, IMO).

Fourth, RU's defense was ... good enough, IMO. It was not great, but had a number of good to better than good moments. RU has played many much worse defensive games (i know, a low hurdle). And did allow too high a percentage of 2-point FG makes. Even so, IMO, RU's defense was solid - especially without Ogbole available in the post. Yes, MSU's post players went 7-8 FG from 2-poiunt range ... but those players only GOT 8 shots amongst the 4 4 and 5 players (Zapala, Kohler, Booker and Cooper) ... they average 18 FG attempts per game and against RU got just 8. I thought Sommerville, Grant ... and yes, even Martini and Bailey - played pretty solid "deny" defense, fronting very well. Also, I felt RU actually limited MSU's transition offense (though the box score indicated 21 fast break points ... it seemed fewer). And though MSU outrebounded RU by a lot (44-34), RU did better limiting MSU to 10 offensive rebounds, while grabbing 19 of their own offensive rebounds (led by Bailey's 7). Also, RU forced MSU into 15 turnovers (while committing just 6 themselves), and those MSU turnovers WERE forced: 10 steals - by practically everyone (Bailey, Williams, Derkack with 2 each, Sommerville, Acuff, Harper and Martini with 1 each). No, RU played good enough defense if Bailey, Martini and Acuff had hit just 2-3 more shots BETWEEN them (they were 5-28 combined - 8-28 and I think RU wins) - remember many of MSU's points were FT's at the end when RU was fouling to lengthen the game. If Martini and Acuff , or Bailey also, had hit just 2-3 more of their open shots earlier in the 1st and 2nd halves, then RU keeps MSU in the low 70's points - and has a good shot to win (not guaranteed, but good chance). I should not there was ONE real problem defensively: MSU has ONE player who is a consistently good 3-poin shooter (though he does not take a high volume of them) ... Richardson. He is the ONE MSU player you just cannot allow free and open 3-point looks. yet the RU defenders kept allowing him wide open looks, losing him (3-4 3-pointers) - Acuff and Williams were the 2 main culprits.

Fifth, I think in the end, Harper's absence was not the cause of the loss. Derkack had a career night - basically producing Harper type of all around shooting, scoring, rebounding, play-making: 26 points on 7-11 FG, 4-7 3-point, 8-9mFT. 4 rebounds, 2 steals ... and very high energy. The primary cause was 2-fold: A not good FG% night by Bailey PLUS awful open shooting by Acuff and Martini.

Individually:

Harper should probably not have been playing.

Bailey just missed shots, many of them good ones - otherwise I thought played well. Youy could tell how tired he was in the last 10 minutes of the game (played 39 minutes) - but still hit his FT's and made consistent effort on the backboard rebounding. He did get caught "looking" on one Coen Carr drive/alley oop - but Grant got caught once there also. Generally, FYI, Bailey defended against Holloman (3-7 FG and 3 turnovers), Akins (several RU players covered Akins - ho was just 3-14 FG) and Fears (4 turnovers).

Derkack had a career game - in every way, and willed RU to be competitive.

Grant deserves a comment: he played pretty well, I thought (9 points, 5 rebounds, a block - I thought 2 blocks actually, 2-4 from 3) ... and more importantly, I think he is going to be a REALLY good player - potentially RU finally has a freshman who has the real potential to bloom as a sophomore into a consistent double digit scorer, the way other teams have had, the way we hoped Simpson would have - but did not. I see Grant as a potential 11=12 ppg scorer next season, along with 6 reb/g and good defense - at the 4.

Williams was ... okay, no more.

Somerville was relatively solid on defense - especially denying the ball. He was physical, and though he did make errors, was consistently making great effort defensively. Offesnievly, he got decent shots - but took 3 bad shots (covered above).

Davis was ... not effective. Defensively he was fine. BVut he foolishly drove to the rim in transition against the 6'10" athletic Booker, with the predictable result of anb easy blocked shot ... he forced anotheer mid-range and missed a 3 -open, but he missed.

Acuff: Was terrible in a game RU needed him to be good. One of RU's worst defenders in this game, 1-6 FG, 1-5 from 3.

Martini: Actually played decently - EXCEPT ... sigh ... 0-5 3-pointers, mostly wide open.

Hayes was not damaging, at least. he got no open looks, did not do a lot on the court in his 12 minutes - but also did no damage I could see (i.e. his defense was not obviously bad this game).

Dortch ... sigh ... I would NOT have played him to give up his red shirt ... the 3 minutes he played could have been just as easily been given to Martini or Hayes - or even Davis (even of Davis was not playing well). He di get credit for a blocked shot and a rebound - and IS really tall ... but I did not see the point.

Yeah Dortch playing was incredibly stupid in a lost season, but I’m not surprised.

 

[lion1983]

Ace had 0 blocks, 2 defensive rebounds and 0 assists and missed 13 straight shots. You are an optimist and saying he had a good game.

Your stats are correct of course.

My counter:

1) Bailey had 2 steals - a nice positive, and came from playing proper defense.

2) He had 9 overall rebounds. And 7 offensive rebounds is GREAT. I think it possible he got fewer defensive rebounds because his defensive assignments were different than in most prior games: He mainly covered a GUARD, not a WF or PF. So it is possible (I'd have to rewatch the game to look specifically where Bailey was on the floor defensively - which I am not going to do).

3) On the assists .. yes, 0 ... BUT ... I distinctly remember AT LEAST 4 occasions where Bailey passed the ball out to the wing from either him driving and kicking or him semi-posting in the short corner or high post and being doubled. RU players were 0-4 from 3 on those passes ... and it could have been more.

4) Cannot say missing 13 consecutive shots hurt RU like heck ... it did. And MSU did as well as any team this season so far in contesting Bailey with good athletic defense. Yet ... of those 13 missed shots, at least 9-10 were what I would call "good" shots. It is the nature of the beast that is Bailey that in some games he will be "hot" and in some games he will NOT be "hot". Him not being hot in any given game does NOT mean he did not play well overall - it just meant he was not hot ... and he is the type of player - and on a team without the supporting personnel to take the load off him (especially with Harper unable to really play) - where he has to keep shooting, even when he is cold ... because he COULD ignite at any time ... like making his last 2 shots (though it was too little too late).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

My stats are always right unless they are wrong.

We are now more than 48 hours after the game and my thoughts are a bit more rational

Fans, especially me, should try and evaluate a player not based on how "hot or cold" the dice were. Ace shouldn't "suck" because he missed 13 shots in a row if they are good looks. Also if there were 4 plays were Ace made the right pass and the player missed the open shot we should really credit him with 2 assists (the expected amount....maybe 1.6 with this bunch)

Don't rewatch, but I am telling you all game on D he was flatfooted and really didn't move. He is not al all thinking of blocking out and is waiting for the ball to come to him.

Another thing......"freshman wall".....it is so easy to say he had a bad game and wasn't engaged as much as normal so he must be hitting the wall. I saw the freshman wall with my one kid and it is real and you get through it. Watching him flat footed and slow to react on D would be the sign.

 

[fluoxetine]

Fourth, RU's defense was ... good enough, IMO. It was not great, but had a number of good to better than good moments.

Adjusted defensive efficiency 101.8, this is barely top 100 defense, not good enough to be a bubble team without a top 20 offense. I am willing to believe that *sometimes* these efficiency numbers lie (maybe the opponent was having a great game, for example) but considering we have the #106 defense I think it's more likely our defense just sucks.

Dortch ... sigh ... I would NOT have played him to give up his red shirt ... the 3 minutes he played could have been just as easily been given to Martini or Hayes - or even Davis (even of Davis was not playing well). He di get credit for a blocked shot and a rebound - and IS really tall ... but I did not see the point.

Is Dortch going to be here in year 5? I think redshirts are 100% pointless in this day and age and shouldn't be considered at all when deciding who to play.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I posted this before.

Games where our adjusted defensive efficiency were above 1.00
2023-2024 4
2022-2023 4
So far this season 12

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Looking at B1G games

mean adjusted def eff
1.018 this year and .9045 last year

Average adj eff
1.025 this year .923 last year

We are talking 7 points per game over 70 possessions.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Adjusted defensive efficiency 101.8, this is barely top 100 defense, not good enough to be a bubble team without a top 20 offense. I am willing to believe that *sometimes* these efficiency numbers lie (maybe the opponent was having a great game, for example) but considering we have the #106 defense I think it's more likely our defense just sucks.


Is Dortch going to be here in year 5? I think redshirts are 100% pointless in this day and age and shouldn't be considered at all when deciding who to play.

We would have needed to play like the 4th best offensive team does on the average night to beat MSU giving up 81 points in 72 possessions to MSU

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

At some point there has to be an acknowledgement of 1 and/or 2

1. Ace (and Dylan) have not been good on the defensive end. They are the added pieces from last year
2. Cliff was a humongous piece to the defensive puzzle

The answer is somewhere in between and i lean more on #2

 

[fluoxetine]

I posted this before.

Games where our adjusted defensive efficiency were above 1.00
2023-2024 4
2022-2023 4
So far this season 12

Looking at B1G games

mean adjusted def eff
1.018 this year and .9045 last year

Average adj eff
1.025 this year .923 last year

We are talking 7 points per game over 70 possessions.

The broad point is correct, but I do want to point out that league average is going up:
Points per possession
2020 1.022
2021 1.022
2022 1.023
2023 1.041
2024 1.055
2025 1.065

More than 4 per 100 increase since 2020-22.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

i'll bump the bar to 1.01 and we throw out Alabama. moves the number down to 11 out of 20.

 

[seansherm]

At some point there has to be an acknowledgement of 1 and/or 2

1. Ace (and Dylan) have not been good on the defensive end. They are the added pieces from last year
2. Cliff was a humongous piece to the defensive puzzle

The answer is somewhere in between and i lean more on #2

Well, pretty much the entire team are added pieces from last year. Martini, Acuff, Grant, Sommerville, Hayes, ect are all added pieces.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Well, pretty much the entire team are added pieces from last year. Martini, Acuff, Grant, Sommerville, Hayes, ect are all added pieces.

38% of the non Ace and Dylan minutes are old pieces
62% are new pieces

 

[NickRU714]

How much of last years defensive success was actually attributable to the "old pieces"?

Also, are they performing at the same level this year?

Wouldn't be so quick to blame just the "new pieces" for this years defensive misdeeds.

 

[fluoxetine]

Davis is the only player on this year's team that played more than 50% of the minutes on last year's team. Williams played 25%, Ogbole played 6%. Basically the entire team is new pieces.

 

[goru7]

How much of last years defensive success was actually attributable to the "old pieces"?

Also, are they performing at the same level this year?

Wouldn't be so quick to blame just the "new pieces" for this years defensive misdeeds.

The defensive drop off by Jeremiah , JMike and Jordan ,the NEC defensive player of the year is drastic.
Jeremiah slips and slides , commits needless and low IQ fouls , has gotten beat repeatedly and rarely plays straight up defense send gets a steal.
JMike has regressed badly. He is never in the other point guard’s grill. Gets picked so easily on pick and roll and doesn’t fight over screens and hasn’t closed out on 3 point shooters. He is routinely getting beat off the dribble . You literally could not play much worse.
Jordan gets lost on defense a lot and I’d terrible on close outs drifting too far allowing too many open threes. Yes , he hustled and he rebounds but was expecting a smarter more consistent player and instead a lot of low IQ plays and a lot of careless turnovers. Let’s hope MSU gives him the confidence to end strong.

 

[goru7]

It's one game and Grant had been just as worthless to that point though. All I'm saying. I hated the Martini pick up, you don't have to tell me how little he's added, he's been worse than I was even expecting.

Grant was not worthless. He blocked 1-2 shots , got some rebounds and his 3 point shooting came around just a little hitting 1 early second half and one after he was bright back in. Martini did what again? Right , a truly worthless performance.

 

[seansherm]

38% of the non Ace and Dylan minutes are old pieces
62% are new pieces

Pretty selective, removing the two guys playing the most by quite a bit. 74% of total minutes are by guys not on the team LY. 43%+ of our minutes are played by freshman.

 

[seansherm]

Grant was not worthless. He blocked 1-2 shots , got some rebounds and his 3 point shooting came around just a little hitting 1 early second half and one after he was bright back in. Martini did what again? Right , a truly worthless performance.

Don't disagree on Martini. Grant was all over the place. He blocked a shot in like the first minute. 0fer shooting in the first half. One rebound late in the second under 2 to play, when he also made two of his three shots.

 

[goru7]

Don't disagree on Martini. Grant was all over the place. He blocked a shot in like the first minute. 0fer shooting in the first half. One rebound late in the second under 2 to play, when he also made two of his three shots.

His athleticism could have stayed with MSU players better than Martini. Guarantee he is not going 0-4 on wide open threes in the second half. You cannot look at a final Boxscore and ignore key points and key subs at key parts of the game. That seems to me what you are doing analyzing Grant.

 

[seansherm]

His athleticism could have stayed with MSU players better than Martini. Guarantee he is not going 0-4 on wide open threes in the second half. You cannot look at a final Boxscore and ignore key points and key subs at key parts of the game. That seems to me what you are doing analyzing Grant.

Martini only played 10 minutes, it's not like he was out there half of the game. Grant wasn't very good for much of his appearance and played 60% of the game. I do agree when we choose to sit guys can be very odd. Thought it used to be Knight that ran the subs, don't know if still true.

 

[goru7]

Martini only played 10 minutes, it's not like he was out there half of the game. Grant wasn't very good for much of his appearance and played 60% of the game. I do agree when we choose to sit guys can be very odd. Thought it used to be Knight that ran the subs, don't know if still true.

He didn’t play 60% of the game as he played a total of 23 minutes , so the last 3 minutes of the second half when it was too late and when he was yanked early in second half. He was out of the game when MSU stretched the lead from2-4 to 10 -12. The most crucial part of the second half. You are understating his not playing and the damage done by Martini playing.

 

[seansherm]

He didn’t play 60% of the game as he played a total of 23 minutes , so the last 3 minutes of the second half when it was too late and when he was yanked early in second half. He was out of the game when MSU stretched the lead from2-4 to 10 -12. The most crucial part of the second half. You are understating his not playing and the damage done by Martini playing.

Sorry, off by a minute, 57.5%. It's the 2nd most he's played. I just think this is only one of many guys that we were terrible when they were on the court, Jwill and JMike both were minus double figures in +/- also. Even Grant was -2 on the day. There were only two groups of 5 that played more than 2 minutes together. Grant was part of both of those, one was outscored by 5, the other was a plus 2. Rotations were all over the place.

 

[PhillyRU]

The defensive drop off by Jeremiah , JMike and Jordan ,the NEC defensive player of the year is drastic.
Jeremiah slips and slides , commits needless and low IQ fouls , has gotten beat repeatedly and rarely plays straight up defense send gets a steal.
JMike has regressed badly. He is never in the other point guard’s grill. Gets picked so easily on pick and roll and doesn’t fight over screens and hasn’t closed out on 3 point shooters. He is routinely getting beat off the dribble . You literally could not play much worse.
Jordan gets lost on defense a lot and I’d terrible on close outs drifting too far allowing too many open threes. Yes , he hustled and he rebounds but was expecting a smarter more consistent player and instead a lot of low IQ plays and a lot of careless turnovers. Let’s hope MSU gives him the confidence to end strong.

Pike is obviously a genius defensively so I’d never criticize his philosophy or really talent evaluation on the end. But it speaks to what I perceive as some laziness in his portal evaluation process. Derkack was the NEC DPOY and I think steals leader, but he played entirely 2-3 zone and I think it was clear he’d take a while to adapt. Similarly, he talked several times about prioritizing free throw percentage in the transfer portal, which is kind of a bizarre metric for overall offense effectiveness.

 

[DHajekRC84]

This site has too many wanna be bloggers anymore.

 

[goru7]

Sorry, off by a minute, 57.5%. It's the 2nd most he's played. I just think this is only one of many guys that we were terrible when they were on the court, Jwill and JMike both were minus double figures in +/- also. Even Grant was -2 on the day. There were only two groups of 5 that played more than 2 minutes together. Grant was part of both of those, one was outscored by 5, the other was a plus 2. Rotations were all over the place.

Did you even watch the game. ? Looking at final minutes and citing % ‘s does nothing to determine flow of the game momentum , shifting momentum . The score was 35-32 at the half with Dylan playing a majority of the minutes and Martini hardly at all inthe first half. We hit them with an early run , they hit us with a run back , then we closed the half on a run. We were neck and neck despite not shooting well at all. We start the second half and Grant hits a 3 and he gets taken out by Pike with RU down 2 and then took out Somerville down 2 or 4. He put in Martini and JMike and guess what. They went on the defining run of the game where Martini bricked 3 after 3. Why would you change the lineup when you were toe to toe with MSU with Grant in the lineup ? And then proceed to sit him 6 straight minutes. He hit the 3 to make the score 39-37 with 18 minutes left and Somerville hit the layup to make it 41-39 with 17 minutes left at which time Grant was subbed out and then Lathan subbed out. Did not see the reason or sense for the sub there ? Thought it was a crucial time and they went on a run after Jerimiah reckless drive leading to the transition 3 , a huge 5 point swing and they hit another layup after a missed shot and we are down 10 with just under 11 minutes to playa d Pike calls timeout. Martini did zero during this time ,missed wide open 3 and we never recovered to make a run until it was too late.

 

[seansherm]

Did you even watch the game. ? Looking at final minutes and citing % ‘s does nothing to determine flow of the game momentum , shifting momentum . The score was 35-32 at the half with Dylan playing a majority of the minutes and Martini hardly at all inthe first half. We hit them with an early run , they hit us with a run back , then we closed the half on a run. We were neck and neck despite not shooting well at all. We start the second half and Grant hits a 3 and he gets taken out by Pike with RU down 2 and then took out Somerville down 2 or 4. He put in Martini and JMike and guess what. They went on the defining run of the game where Martini bricked 3 after 3. Why would you change the lineup when you were toe to toe with MSU with Grant in the lineup ? And then proceed to sit him 6 straight minutes. He hit the 3 to make the score 39-37 with 18 minutes left and Somerville hit the layup to make it 41-39 with 17 minutes left at which time Grant was subbed out and then Lathan subbed out. Did not see the reason or sense for the sub there ? Thought it was a crucial time and they went on a run after Jerimiah reckless drive leading to the transition 3 , a huge 5 point swing and they hit another layup after a missed shot and we are down 10 with just under 11 minutes to playa d Pike calls timeout. Martini did zero during this time ,missed wide open 3 and we never recovered to make a run until it was too late.

I've only said I agree our sub patterns are weird like 5 times. The other day was no different. Constant rotation. I think you over estimate Grant the other day a bit, not a big deal. I agree even doing not much, he may be more valuable than Martini, but Pikes not going to play him 40 min, so you are going to see Martini.

 

[RUBlackout]

Did you even watch the game. ? Looking at final minutes and citing % ‘s does nothing to determine flow of the game momentum , shifting momentum . The score was 35-32 at the half with Dylan playing a majority of the minutes and Martini hardly at all inthe first half. We hit them with an early run , they hit us with a run back , then we closed the half on a run. We were neck and neck despite not shooting well at all. We start the second half and Grant hits a 3 and he gets taken out by Pike with RU down 2 and then took out Somerville down 2 or 4. He put in Martini and JMike and guess what. They went on the defining run of the game where Martini bricked 3 after 3. Why would you change the lineup when you were toe to toe with MSU with Grant in the lineup ? And then proceed to sit him 6 straight minutes. He hit the 3 to make the score 39-37 with 18 minutes left and Somerville hit the layup to make it 41-39 with 17 minutes left at which time Grant was subbed out and then Lathan subbed out. Did not see the reason or sense for the sub there ? Thought it was a crucial time and they went on a run after Jerimiah reckless drive leading to the transition 3 , a huge 5 point swing and they hit another layup after a missed shot and we are down 10 with just under 11 minutes to playa d Pike calls timeout. Martini did zero during this time ,missed wide open 3 and we never recovered to make a run until it was too late.

Spot on here and was so noticeable as to scratch your head around the decision making by Pike. Does this ALL the time and crushes us.

As far as looking at Grant as a minus is questionable also based on watching the actual game. Martini Jmike and Jwill were god awful

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not sure what is said by everyone because i have ignored a few

Regarding Grant…he took quite a few defensive possessions off. People cant have it both ways. Cant complain there is no discipline and then rail against why a player wasnt in the game