Sigh ... yet another "what might have been" ... which means RU found another way to NOT win (or lose).
Before the game I posted a preview in which I talked a bit about the defense, and laid out FIVE (5) keys on the offense. Those 5 keys:
1) Bailey shoot well (not otherworldly, but well).
2) Take care of the ball and cause turnovers to have at least a +5 turnover rate vs UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards.
4) Have at least 2 other players besides Bailey step up offensively (3 would be better).
5) RU home crowd be very good.
So ... 4 of 5, eh? But RU needed ALL FIVE to win this game. I'll comment on each of the 4 quantitative offensive keys - plus the defense.
I am going to start with the defense, actually, then go to the 4 offensive keys, then player comments.
Defense:
The defense was actually decent, FOR THE MOST PART ... even with occasional miscommunications and errors, and some poor close-outs ... still it was at least decent, and good enough to win ... almost. As a note, in my preview I felt Bailey primarily would cover a WF/Guard - which he did most of the game, mainly Burnett to begin with, as well as Pippen and Jones - but he did also cover the 6'10" 3-point shooter Walters (who hit 2-2 3's): Those 4 players were a combined 5-14, so it was not Bailey's DEFENSE that was the issue in this game ... and yes, I know, others covered those 4 players at times as well.
1) RU's 1st half defense was very good, holding UM to 44% FG ... and most importantly, holding UM to its lowest First Half scoring total of the season. In the 1st half it was RU's offense that was the problem - and not only Bailey (outside of Bailey, who was 2-9 FG, the rest of the team was just 33% FG and 3-12 from 3 point range. Wolf, Gayle and Burnett has 6 points COMBINED in the 1st half on 3-10 FG (3 double digit scorers).
2) RU forced 17 UM turnovers, with 11 of them coming in the 2nd half. That was what they needed to do for RU to have a chance in this game, and did so. Davis had 4 steals, Derkack and Sommerville 3 each, with Grant, Bailey and Hayes also getting steals - 13 in all.
3) Though it appeared from the box score that UM's offense in the 2nd half was very efficient (52.6% FG), it was solely because of ONE 4 minute span when RU's defense failed. It is a reminder that against a good team, you simply cannot have lapses for stretches. When and what happened? Here it is, starting with 6:45 left in the game, after Derkack hit 2-2 FT to bring RU to within 2 points again, at 46-48, here is what happened in 7 UM possessions over 4:30 on the clock ... FYI the RU line-up at this point was Sommerville, Martini, Bailey, Derkack and Davis:
1) Bailey shooting well. This did not happen. Michigan should get a tone of credit here. They played terrific defense on Bailey. Even so, Bailey had a number of good opportunities he just missed. Was he hurried? rattled? Maybe. This resembled the 2nd half of the Wisconsin game, where Wisconsin put the smaller but quicker Leal on Bailey and it worked pretty well - denying him the ball and then aggressively doubling him as he tried ot back in or drive against the smaller player. Again in this game Bailey was a willing passer, and did get 2 assists - but he passed more than that and his teammates just missed often. Obviously, when a player misses as many shots at Bailey missed, there are a lot of "might have beens", such as TWO additional made shots and RU is tied or in the lead in the last 1-2 minutes of the game. But he did not, so RU was not. FAIL.
2) Take care of the ball, and cause turnovers, to have a +5 turnover rate. Mission accomplished - though RU WAS a little too careless in the 1st half with 8 turnovers - mostly in the 1st 12-14 minutes of the game, cleaning it up mostly after that : RU had just 1 turnover in the last 7 minutes of the 1st half, and only 3 or 4 in the entire 2nd half ... so 4 or 5 turnovers in the last 27 minutes of the game. Conversely, RU forced 17 UM turnovers, 10-11 in the 2nd half, and they forced them getting 13 steals. Sommerville actually did pretty well here, with 3 steals (other defensively shortcomings aside). Davis and 4 steals and Derkack was a very disruptive force, especially in the 2nd half. SUCCESS.
3) Hold their own on the Boards. RU outrebounded a very good rebounding Michigan team 37-36, including getting 15 offensive rebounds (to UM's just 5 offensive rebounds). That helped partly compensate for RU's poor shooting, as RU rebounded 15 of their 45 misses ... but only partly, since 45 misses is WAY too many to fully ocmpensate for. And, unfortunately, that 30% offensive rebound rate in this game was LOWER than the 33% offensive rebound rate RU averaged coming into the game. Still, RU did hold their own on the Boards. SUCCESS.
4) Have at least 2 players other than Bailey deliver offensive production (preferably 3). Mission accomplished ... except with Bailey's very poor shooting night RU needed 3 - but only got 2. Still, a career night by Davis (offensively) and a very good night by Acuff. But Grant was just 1-6 FG (0-3 3-point) on a night RU needed that extra couple of baskets ... and Martin and Hayes, though each hitting important 3's, were a combined 2-7 from the field (all 3's) ... and Derkack was 0-3 (though 506 FT). The combo of Hayes, Martini, Grant, Derkack and Sommerville were a combined 6-24 FG (2-12 3-point FG). Still .. PARTIAL SUCCESS.
Players:
1) Bailey ... sigh ... See my post about his strange oddity of home vs road games in the Big 10 (https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...oad-performance-oddities.288711/#post-7122404). He simply did not have it vs UM. Part of it was certainly excellent defense by UM (mentioned above). But part of it was he simply missed a number of FG tries he can and often makes - in particular open or catch and shoot 3's. RU won't win many games if Bailey is 3-15 FG (0-7 3-pointers), especially without Harper. It is a credit to the rest of the team they came clsoe in this game. He WAS a willing passer, got 3 assists and could have had more if his teammates hit some open shots after he passed it. He was okay defensively. He did make some errors, but MOSTLY, the players he covered did little offensive damage (also covered above). He was okay rebounding - not dominant, but okay.
2) Davis He gets second listing here. Great game. Yes, he missed a couple of 3's and yes he missed a critical 2-pointer near the end (tough play with the game clock running down, that he somehow got more open than not). But very, very hard for anyone to complain at 20 points (okay, the last 3 was meaningless, but still ...) 4 rebounds, 4 steals, 2 assists and 0 (ZERO) turnovers), in 31 minutes. And though Donaldson hit some key baskets, and had 6 assists, he only had 10 points overall, and 3 turnovers.
3) Acuff: He did not start, but the last 2 games RU is now seeing the Acuff the staff obviously hoped for. Maybe his foot is finally 100% healthy, eh? Anyway a good game. No obvious defensive errors, 14 points on 5-10 FG, 2-4 3-pointers. Much needed. He did miss a crucial 3 after Bailey missed an open 3 in one sequence. But it iis tough to complain too much.
4) Sommerville: he was ... okay. Positive: He had 3 steals, 5 rebounds, and battled hard all game against the 2 UM 7 footers. And hit a couple of very important buckets. But he was also just 3-8 FG, took 2 ill-advised very deep shots (yes, open - only 1 counted as a 3, apparently), got called for a foul in the end game that really hurt (though as I explained above I am not sure it was actually a foul).
5) Derkack: If he had hit 1 3 and 1 2, it would have been a GREAT game ... but he did not, so it was merely a solid game, with times when he was a big difference maker with his steals and energy ... 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 5-6 FT all good. 0-3 FG (0-2 from 3) and 2 bad turnovers were not so good. He was not the reason for the loss, for sure.
6) Grant: Did not play well, which is why he was not in the game in the last 10 minutes or so - though he was not that poor either. He was 0-3 from 3 - when RU really needed a couple of makes. He forced several other shots. He was okay on defense, but did not stand out the way he has in other games (though he was a factor holding Wolf to just 2 1st half points). His game was more "meh" than bad this game.
7) Martini: He played quite well for the most part. The one exception was RU really needed more than the 1 3 he did make - they really needed one more (all his 3's were wide open). He played with great grit and heart on defense, and was at least solid. yes, he was occasionally overmatched one on one with Wolf or Goldin. But he played them decently a fair amount of time also.
8) Williams: We probably have to give a pass as he was simply too ill, and did not play at all in the 2nd half.
9) Hayes - got real playing time, and was not hurtful. He did hit an important 3 - and forced a 3 (I think he had to as the shot clokc was winding down) and missed an open 3. He did have a turnover in limited time, but also an assist and a steal. Okay.
10) Dortch: He played with energy and was GREAT rebounding in the 1st half in particular - 5 rebounds in the 1st half, 3 offensive. But he struggled holding onto the ball - as freshmen bigs often do. He obviously need to get stronger - and will by next year.
Before the game I posted a preview in which I talked a bit about the defense, and laid out FIVE (5) keys on the offense. Those 5 keys:
1) Bailey shoot well (not otherworldly, but well).
2) Take care of the ball and cause turnovers to have at least a +5 turnover rate vs UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards.
4) Have at least 2 other players besides Bailey step up offensively (3 would be better).
5) RU home crowd be very good.
So ... 4 of 5, eh? But RU needed ALL FIVE to win this game. I'll comment on each of the 4 quantitative offensive keys - plus the defense.
I am going to start with the defense, actually, then go to the 4 offensive keys, then player comments.
Defense:
The defense was actually decent, FOR THE MOST PART ... even with occasional miscommunications and errors, and some poor close-outs ... still it was at least decent, and good enough to win ... almost. As a note, in my preview I felt Bailey primarily would cover a WF/Guard - which he did most of the game, mainly Burnett to begin with, as well as Pippen and Jones - but he did also cover the 6'10" 3-point shooter Walters (who hit 2-2 3's): Those 4 players were a combined 5-14, so it was not Bailey's DEFENSE that was the issue in this game ... and yes, I know, others covered those 4 players at times as well.
1) RU's 1st half defense was very good, holding UM to 44% FG ... and most importantly, holding UM to its lowest First Half scoring total of the season. In the 1st half it was RU's offense that was the problem - and not only Bailey (outside of Bailey, who was 2-9 FG, the rest of the team was just 33% FG and 3-12 from 3 point range. Wolf, Gayle and Burnett has 6 points COMBINED in the 1st half on 3-10 FG (3 double digit scorers).
2) RU forced 17 UM turnovers, with 11 of them coming in the 2nd half. That was what they needed to do for RU to have a chance in this game, and did so. Davis had 4 steals, Derkack and Sommerville 3 each, with Grant, Bailey and Hayes also getting steals - 13 in all.
3) Though it appeared from the box score that UM's offense in the 2nd half was very efficient (52.6% FG), it was solely because of ONE 4 minute span when RU's defense failed. It is a reminder that against a good team, you simply cannot have lapses for stretches. When and what happened? Here it is, starting with 6:45 left in the game, after Derkack hit 2-2 FT to bring RU to within 2 points again, at 46-48, here is what happened in 7 UM possessions over 4:30 on the clock ... FYI the RU line-up at this point was Sommerville, Martini, Bailey, Derkack and Davis:
a) UM possession 1: Wolf 3-pointer - terrific offensive set by UM, with Donaldson on one wing, UM had Wolf at the opposite f3-point line, Sommerville defending (Martini defending Goldin - who was camped in the far corner). UM having Gayle and Jones initially bunched: Jones just below the foul line extended - Derkack on him, Gayle midway between the foul line extended and the 3-point line (Bailey on him), Sommerville straddling the top of the foul line circle on Wolf - but with space (Derkack and Bailey were both very tight on their men). Wolf took a half step to look like he was setting a screen on Bailey for Gayle to pop out to the 3, but quickly stepped out at an angle to the 3-point line, Gayle moving closer to the center of the foul lane extended, at the top of the foul line circle, setting a screen on BOTH Bailey and Sommerville ... maybe there could have been better communication between Bailey and Sommerville, but I am not sure - because Bailey was covering Gayle to prevent the inside face cut down the lane, so when Wolf faded OUTSIDE, Bailey was naturally screened to prevent a switch - plus Sommerville got screened. And Derkack would have had to leave his man entirely to even have a chance to help at the 3-point line - because Jones was drifting towards the corner. I think, just a really good set up play by UM, and Wolf made the open 3. UM 46-51.
b) UM Possession 2: After RU 1-2 FT, UM's Wolf missed a lay-up, but Goldin got the offensive rebound and lay-up. UM started with the IDENTIOCAL set up as the prior possession - but this time Martini was on Wolf, Sommerville on Goldin. UM changed the play, running a high screen with Jones and Wolf - Martini and Derkack switched - but with poor communication, so Derkack ended up chasing Wolf to the corner as Wolf received the ball ... Derkakc was out of position and Wolf drove and though Derkakc recovered decently forcing a wild lay-up try that Wolf missed, Sommerville kind of sat in the middle of the lane watching, losing Goldin as Goldin slid from the opposite low post to the other low post, and grab the offensive rebound and lay it in. Goldin's 1st 2H points, FYI. UM 47-53.
c) UM Possession 3: After a nice Sommerville move and FG, UM created the same set up to trigger their offense. Sommerville was caught on a switch and was covering Jones, who slipped to the corner. Sommerville kind of drifted with him, Derkack rotating down the line to front Goldin, Martini on the opposite low post block to give him an angle to help underneath, but also time to get out to Wolf in the opposite corner if needed. The Sommerville INEXPLICABLY drifted back to the low post AWAY from the corner shooter Jones, causing Derkack to leave Goldin to try to run at Jones ot contest the 3 (way too far ot run to get to him) ... and at the same time Sommerville ALSO reversed himself to run out at Jones. Jones missed the 3, but Martini chose to slide to box out a now completely uncovered Goldin, allowing Wolf to crash the opposite side and over an attempt by Davis to rotate down and box out the 7'0" Wolf, just leaped and tipped the ball out to Gayle at the top of the circle (open because Bailey left him to crash the boards), followed by a quick pass and easy lay-up to Wolf open under the basket for a lay-up. UM 49-55.
d) UM Possession 4: After 1-2 FT by Bailey, UM runs the shot clock down a bit, RU (Sommerville and Martini) defend the 2-man game of Wolf and Goldin well, switching and forcing Goldin to take a difficult 12'-13' turnaround and fadeaway shot over Martini. UM still 50-55.
e) UM Possession 5: After Davis missed a wide opne 3 at the top of the key, from a penetrating Derkack, Sommerville fouled Goldin on the rebound, allowing Goldin FT's ... 2-2 FT. Frankly, it was not much of a foul, if a foul at all. Goldin grabbed the rebound and as he turned to outlet the pass, stumbled and fell down, successfully passing the ball ... Upon looking at the replay several times, it looked more like a travel than any contact between either Sommerville or Derkack (also there) vs Goldin. It was a bang-bang call, so cannot really fault either the refs or Sommerville - could have been a UM turnover, though, and TRU ball rather than 2 FT's. Even so ... UM 50-57.
f) UM Possession 6: After a Davis 3-pointer (from Bailey) against the zone - a nice play by both, UM possession. A complete RU breakdown in communication on screens allowing an easyt wide open lay-up by Goldin. Not sure who was at fault - after rewatching it several times I think it was probably Bailey's mistake, followed by Sommerville. Davis was covering Donaldson, and Gayle (Bailey's man) set a screen at the left logo (well above the 3-point line) but Bailey stayed at the foul line corner, not going out on Gayle as Gayle drifted up to the 3-point line. Donaldson kept dribbling sideways, Goldin set a 2nd screen for Donaldson and Sommerville switched. Bailey then drifted more, sliding towards the basket into the foul lane as if to cover Goldin cutting down the middle of the foul lane after his screen - but Davis did not go BACK to Gayle, now on the wing at the 3-point line. So when Donaldson passed to an open Gayle, Sommerville was at the 3-point line with Donaldson, and Bailey suddenly had to run out to challenge the wide open Gayle at the 3-point line/ Acuff was stuck defending the opposite corner unable to help and Goldin was WIDE OPEN on his cut for an easy lay-up from an easy pass from Gayle. Goldin was so open that even though Bailey actually TIPPED Gayle's pass, it still got to him in easy scoring position. UM 53-59.
g) UM Possession 7: After 2-2 FT by Bailey (2:40 left), UM set up and forced multiple switches with motion, then Davis was caught on a back screen as Burnett cut around Goldin while Goldin had the ball, Goldin's back to the basket - Bailey having pushed Goldon out to the 3-point line (looked like good Bailey defense at first) ... Davis was caught in no man's land - and Bailey could not switch because Goldin had the ball and passed too quickly ... led to a baseline cut and drive with Davis trailing. Derkack had to leave Wolf at the high post to help Davis, and Wolf cut to the rim to receive the good pass and easy lay-up (Martini could not help as he was covering a UM player at the 3-point line). UM 55-61 ... 2:13 left.
And that was the game. In that 4:30 time span, UM had 7 possessions, and was 5-7 FG and 2-2 FT, with 1 offensive rebound - scoring on 6 of the 7 possessions, pushing the lead from 46-48 to 55-61.
And I know that you cannot really play this game with stats, but for perspective, OTHER THAN THAT 4:30 STRETCH, RU held UM to 43.5% FG shooting on the game. If RU had held UM ot 43% shooting even in that 4 minute stretch, UM would have been 3-7 .. and the score would have been 55-57, RY ball with 2 minutes left, and potentially TIED at 57-57 (or even RU ahead 57-56 if RU had stopped Wolf's initial 3) with 47 seconds left after several stops by RU followed by 2-2 FT by Derkack ... a totally different end game. Not clear RU would have own, but a very different end game, eh? And regardless, unless it went into overtime, RU would likely have held UM to its lowest point total of the season, rather than its 2nd lowest total, and maybe under 60 points. At which poitn we'd all be saying this was RU's best defensive effort of the season.
Offense and Four Keys:1) Bailey shooting well. This did not happen. Michigan should get a tone of credit here. They played terrific defense on Bailey. Even so, Bailey had a number of good opportunities he just missed. Was he hurried? rattled? Maybe. This resembled the 2nd half of the Wisconsin game, where Wisconsin put the smaller but quicker Leal on Bailey and it worked pretty well - denying him the ball and then aggressively doubling him as he tried ot back in or drive against the smaller player. Again in this game Bailey was a willing passer, and did get 2 assists - but he passed more than that and his teammates just missed often. Obviously, when a player misses as many shots at Bailey missed, there are a lot of "might have beens", such as TWO additional made shots and RU is tied or in the lead in the last 1-2 minutes of the game. But he did not, so RU was not. FAIL.
2) Take care of the ball, and cause turnovers, to have a +5 turnover rate. Mission accomplished - though RU WAS a little too careless in the 1st half with 8 turnovers - mostly in the 1st 12-14 minutes of the game, cleaning it up mostly after that : RU had just 1 turnover in the last 7 minutes of the 1st half, and only 3 or 4 in the entire 2nd half ... so 4 or 5 turnovers in the last 27 minutes of the game. Conversely, RU forced 17 UM turnovers, 10-11 in the 2nd half, and they forced them getting 13 steals. Sommerville actually did pretty well here, with 3 steals (other defensively shortcomings aside). Davis and 4 steals and Derkack was a very disruptive force, especially in the 2nd half. SUCCESS.
3) Hold their own on the Boards. RU outrebounded a very good rebounding Michigan team 37-36, including getting 15 offensive rebounds (to UM's just 5 offensive rebounds). That helped partly compensate for RU's poor shooting, as RU rebounded 15 of their 45 misses ... but only partly, since 45 misses is WAY too many to fully ocmpensate for. And, unfortunately, that 30% offensive rebound rate in this game was LOWER than the 33% offensive rebound rate RU averaged coming into the game. Still, RU did hold their own on the Boards. SUCCESS.
4) Have at least 2 players other than Bailey deliver offensive production (preferably 3). Mission accomplished ... except with Bailey's very poor shooting night RU needed 3 - but only got 2. Still, a career night by Davis (offensively) and a very good night by Acuff. But Grant was just 1-6 FG (0-3 3-point) on a night RU needed that extra couple of baskets ... and Martin and Hayes, though each hitting important 3's, were a combined 2-7 from the field (all 3's) ... and Derkack was 0-3 (though 506 FT). The combo of Hayes, Martini, Grant, Derkack and Sommerville were a combined 6-24 FG (2-12 3-point FG). Still .. PARTIAL SUCCESS.
Players:
1) Bailey ... sigh ... See my post about his strange oddity of home vs road games in the Big 10 (https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...oad-performance-oddities.288711/#post-7122404). He simply did not have it vs UM. Part of it was certainly excellent defense by UM (mentioned above). But part of it was he simply missed a number of FG tries he can and often makes - in particular open or catch and shoot 3's. RU won't win many games if Bailey is 3-15 FG (0-7 3-pointers), especially without Harper. It is a credit to the rest of the team they came clsoe in this game. He WAS a willing passer, got 3 assists and could have had more if his teammates hit some open shots after he passed it. He was okay defensively. He did make some errors, but MOSTLY, the players he covered did little offensive damage (also covered above). He was okay rebounding - not dominant, but okay.
2) Davis He gets second listing here. Great game. Yes, he missed a couple of 3's and yes he missed a critical 2-pointer near the end (tough play with the game clock running down, that he somehow got more open than not). But very, very hard for anyone to complain at 20 points (okay, the last 3 was meaningless, but still ...) 4 rebounds, 4 steals, 2 assists and 0 (ZERO) turnovers), in 31 minutes. And though Donaldson hit some key baskets, and had 6 assists, he only had 10 points overall, and 3 turnovers.
3) Acuff: He did not start, but the last 2 games RU is now seeing the Acuff the staff obviously hoped for. Maybe his foot is finally 100% healthy, eh? Anyway a good game. No obvious defensive errors, 14 points on 5-10 FG, 2-4 3-pointers. Much needed. He did miss a crucial 3 after Bailey missed an open 3 in one sequence. But it iis tough to complain too much.
4) Sommerville: he was ... okay. Positive: He had 3 steals, 5 rebounds, and battled hard all game against the 2 UM 7 footers. And hit a couple of very important buckets. But he was also just 3-8 FG, took 2 ill-advised very deep shots (yes, open - only 1 counted as a 3, apparently), got called for a foul in the end game that really hurt (though as I explained above I am not sure it was actually a foul).
5) Derkack: If he had hit 1 3 and 1 2, it would have been a GREAT game ... but he did not, so it was merely a solid game, with times when he was a big difference maker with his steals and energy ... 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 5-6 FT all good. 0-3 FG (0-2 from 3) and 2 bad turnovers were not so good. He was not the reason for the loss, for sure.
6) Grant: Did not play well, which is why he was not in the game in the last 10 minutes or so - though he was not that poor either. He was 0-3 from 3 - when RU really needed a couple of makes. He forced several other shots. He was okay on defense, but did not stand out the way he has in other games (though he was a factor holding Wolf to just 2 1st half points). His game was more "meh" than bad this game.
7) Martini: He played quite well for the most part. The one exception was RU really needed more than the 1 3 he did make - they really needed one more (all his 3's were wide open). He played with great grit and heart on defense, and was at least solid. yes, he was occasionally overmatched one on one with Wolf or Goldin. But he played them decently a fair amount of time also.
8) Williams: We probably have to give a pass as he was simply too ill, and did not play at all in the 2nd half.
9) Hayes - got real playing time, and was not hurtful. He did hit an important 3 - and forced a 3 (I think he had to as the shot clokc was winding down) and missed an open 3. He did have a turnover in limited time, but also an assist and a steal. Okay.
10) Dortch: He played with energy and was GREAT rebounding in the 1st half in particular - 5 rebounds in the 1st half, 3 offensive. But he struggled holding onto the ball - as freshmen bigs often do. He obviously need to get stronger - and will by next year.
