Preview of RU vs Iowa

[lion1983]

Iowa often seems to have RU's number, so I always worry facing them. Plus, RU is very inconsistent. Another reason to worry. And ... is Bailey going to play - and be healthy? Yet more worry.

But a win here would be very helpful. If RU can win, they'd be in a pretty strong position to make the Big 10 tourney - the main goal at this point. At 5-8 in conference, with Iowa 4-8, a win puts RU at 6-8 to Iowa at 4-9 (and RU having the tie breaker) ... and Minnesota at 4-9 (RU gets them at home), NW at 4-10 (RU with tiebreaker), Washington at 3-9 (RU still has them to play - on the road) and Penn State 3-11. Plus RU would still be in a position to probably get to 10th or 11th in conference, with an outside shot at 9th (the current 9th place team is actually a 3-way tie for 8th at 6-7 in conference (USC, Nebraska and Ohio St) ... Indiana and Oregon are currently at 6-8.

Keys?

1) Limit Iowa's 3-point shooting - and making. Iowa hits 38% from 3-point range (very good), and takes 42% of their FG's from 3 (relatively high). That may have gone up recently (I did not check box scores, sorry), since their top scorer and top post scorer (Freeman) got hurt for the year.. But Iowa is 0-4 in games in which they shoot 33% or worse from 3. Though they score a lot, if they are not hitting more than 1/3 of their 3's they have trouble winning.

2) Take care of the ball. Iowa pretty much does just one thing well on defense: Force turnovers, at 14+ per game. They combine that with NOT turning the ball over - a +4 turnover margin.

3) Score more than 80 points vs Iowa. Iowa is 2-7 in games in which they give up more than 80 points and 11-3 when they hold teams to 79 points or fewer. This is NOT a good defensive team. Their opponents hit 47.5% of FG's, and almost 34% 3-pointers. Iowa makes up for that a little with forcing turnovers, and in making 2.2 3-pointers MORE per game than their opponents.

4) Rebound. Iowa is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, I suspect - at least in the P5, and probably the worst in the Big 10. Opposing teams outrebound Iowa by 5.4 per game - and outrebound Iowa on the offensive boards end by nearly 3 per game. Iowa rebounds just 27% of their misses. RU rebounds over34% of their own misses.

5) Do not put Payton Sandfort (as opposed to his brother Pryce), Dix or Harding on the foul line. Iowa is a 68% FT shooting team - but those 3 are all over 75% - Sandfort at 89%. Almost every other Iowa player is at 61% FT or worse.

6) Have Harper and Bailey both score well - and at least 1-2 other players. This speaks for itself. If RU is going to score 80 or more points, usually they need at least 4 scorers in double digits.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Sorry to hijack.....

Freeman was their shot blocker.

The 2nd most important thing to me will be the aggressiveness of Harper taking it to the basket. If Harper goes Alabama mode I don't see Iowa being able to stop him.

The 3rd most important thing is 2nd chance points. We should get opportunities and need to convert.

no neeD to post my most important thing to me

 

[lion1983]

FYI, it looks like Iowa changed its starting line-up the last 2 games with Freeman out - and not just replacing Freeman. The last 2 games Harding has not started (sick, hurt or coach's decision, I do not know).

If Iowa starts the same 5 as they have the last 2 games, RU's matching up on defdnse would likely be:

Sommerville v Mulvey (6'11" red-shirt JR)

Williams on the 6'6" PG Dix, a 14 ppg scorer and good 3-point shooter (44%)

Grant on Sandfort (Iowa's leading scorer playing - Freeman was but he is out), and 6'8" and a shooter.

Bailey on Treore - Treore is 6'7" and does not shoot a lot of 3's - so Bailey defending him makes sense if RU wants Bailey to play the role of helping away from his man.

Harper on Thelwell. Thelwell is 6'3"and a good 3-point shooter.

That said, maybe Bailey goes on Sandfort, if he is considered a better deterrent of the 3-point shot than Grant? Sandfort takes 58% of his shots from 3 ... so who do you want away from the defensive backboard, Grant or Bailey, and who do you want to "help" away from his man, Grant or Bailey?

 

[Scangg]

I don't find the "Iowa has had RU's number" part too relevant since historically under Pike Rutgers has been mainly a gritty defensive team that struggles to score but this year's team should have no issue going for 80+ against Iowa

Pound the glass. Dortch could have a field day on the offensive glass

Love love love FIG's take on Harper. Exactly my thought as well. This is a game for Harper to be unstoppable taking it to the rim

Need to hit some 3's. Grant has been slumping of late from downtown. Good game for him to get going from deep

Derkack may be effective attacking the rim in this one

This is a game where Hayes can compete physically. Unleash him against Iowa and see if he can get hot after coming right off the bench last game and drilling one #FreeHayes

 

[zebnatto]

The line for the game on ESPN is -5.5 Rutgers. To me they’re kind of splitting the difference between an effective Ace and an ineffective or entirely absent Ace. Personally, I would have the point spread maybe a point lower, maybe even two points lower if there is a word or an expectation of Ace not being himself. And I think that’s what most of us here expect. I think 5.5 with a healthy Ace is reasonable or maybe even a little low. That is if Ace were healthy and definite,I could see 5.5 6.5 and I think that’s about as high as I go But again 5.5 without Ace seems a bit high.

 

[Bayonnebomber79]

I don't find the "Iowa has had RU's number" part too relevant since historically under Pike Rutgers has been mainly a gritty defensive team that struggles to score but this year's team should have no issue going for 80+ against Iowa

This is a game where Hayes can compete physically. Unleash him against Iowa and see if he can get hot after coming right off the bench last game and drilling one #FreeHayes

I was thinking the exact same thing about Hayes! Lets get him going.
#FreeHayes

 

[FIJI'83]

Assuming we get 35-40 combined from Harper/Bailey (which in my opinion is a must) from who do we get the other 35-40? There is no consistency of play from the Others when it comes to scoring on a game to game basis. Relatedly, who is going to be the critical third player tonight to score between 12-15? I say it will be either Somerville or Grant.

 

[BrewHawk]

Assuming we get 35-40 combined from Harper/Bailey (which in my opinion is a must) from who do we get the other 35-40? There is no consistency of play from the Others when it comes to scoring on a game to game basis. Relatedly, who is going to be the critical third player tonight to score between 12-15? I say it will be either Somerville or Grant.

Since we don't really play defense, it will be whomever has been cold from the perimeter lately and will hit 5-6 three-pointers.

 

[Miggins]

Iowa let teams get to the basket, score and still not foul them; even with Freeman in the line-up.
We have to be able to exploit this, dominate the inside and dominate the boards.

Yes we can get some open 3s but I think Iowa would sign up in a second to get in a 3 point shooting contest with RU. Unless Iowa packs real low in a zone, I hope we are not taking 15 or more shots from 3 tonight.

Ace will be the most interesting. Harper will absolutely want to go to the basket as a 1st choice. Ace can get lulled into shooting long 2s and 3s but will he attack the rim tonight? I don't see them offering a ton of resistance if he does.

Teams like Iowa are unpredictable even when when they are not very good like this year. They take a lot of 3s and shoot them relatively well. If they have a hot night they can beat almost anybody, conversely if they are off they can get run out of the building.

 

[BrewHawk]

Iowa let teams get to the basket, score and still not foul them; even with Freeman in the line-up.
We have to be able to exploit this, dominate the inside and dominate the boards.

Yes we can get some open 3s but I think Iowa would sign up in a second to get in a 3 point shooting contest with RU. Unless Iowa packs real low in a zone, I hope we are not taking 15 or more shots from 3 tonight.

Ace will be the most interesting. Harper will absolutely want to go to the basket as a 1st choice. Ace can get lulled into shooting long 2s and 3s but will he attack the rim tonight? I don't see them offering a ton of resistance if he does.

Teams like Iowa are unpredictable even when when they are not very good like this year. They take a lot of 3s and shoot them relatively well. If they have a hot night they can beat almost anybody, conversely if they are off they can get run out of the building.

If the two perimeter defenders assigned to Dix and Sandfort can stay close, you won't see many makes from them.

I would give Iowa a chance if this were at Carver, but on the road it is an entirely different story.

Iowa fans are tired of Fran, and Fran just looks tired.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Iowa often seems to have RU's number, so I always worry facing them. Plus, RU is very inconsistent. Another reason to worry. And ... is Bailey going to play - and be healthy? Yet more worry.

But a win here would be very helpful. If RU can win, they'd be in a pretty strong position to make the Big 10 tourney - the main goal at this point. At 5-8 in conference, with Iowa 4-8, a win puts RU at 6-8 to Iowa at 4-9 (and RU having the tie breaker) ... and Minnesota at 4-9 (RU gets them at home), NW at 4-10 (RU with tiebreaker), Washington at 3-9 (RU still has them to play - on the road) and Penn State 3-11. Plus RU would still be in a position to probably get to 10th or 11th in conference, with an outside shot at 9th (the current 9th place team is actually a 3-way tie for 8th at 6-7 in conference (USC, Nebraska and Ohio St) ... Indiana and Oregon are currently at 6-8.

Keys?

1) Limit Iowa's 3-point shooting - and making. Iowa hits 38% from 3-point range (very good), and takes 42% of their FG's from 3 (relatively high). That may have gone up recently (I did not check box scores, sorry), since their top scorer and top post scorer (Freeman) got hurt for the year.. But Iowa is 0-4 in games in which they shoot 33% or worse from 3. Though they score a lot, if they are not hitting more than 1/3 of their 3's they have trouble winning.

2) Take care of the ball. Iowa pretty much does just one thing well on defense: Force turnovers, at 14+ per game. They combine that with NOT turning the ball over - a +4 turnover margin.

3) Score more than 80 points vs Iowa. Iowa is 2-7 in games in which they give up more than 80 points and 11-3 when they hold teams to 79 points or fewer. This is NOT a good defensive team. Their opponents hit 47.5% of FG's, and almost 34% 3-pointers. Iowa makes up for that a little with forcing turnovers, and in making 2.2 3-pointers MORE per game than their opponents.

4) Rebound. Iowa is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, I suspect - at least in the P5, and probably the worst in the Big 10. Opposing teams outrebound Iowa by 5.4 per game - and outrebound Iowa on the offensive boards end by nearly 3 per game. Iowa rebounds just 27% of their misses. RU rebounds over34% of their own misses.

5) Do not put Payton Sandfort (as opposed to his brother Pryce), Dix or Harding on the foul line. Iowa is a 68% FT shooting team - but those 3 are all over 75% - Sandfort at 89%. Almost every other Iowa player is at 61% FT or worse.

6) Have Harper and Bailey both score well - and at least 1-2 other players. This speaks for itself. If RU is going to score 80 or more points, usually they need at least 4 scorers in double digits.

Peyton Sandfort plays REALLY fast. He's constantly in motion. As such, I don't think Grant is the best matchup to defend him. I think we might need to put JWill on him, and Ace on Dix (who doesn't run around as fast, and will be bothered by Ace's length on the perimeter).

 

[Degaz-RU]

If the two perimeter defenders assigned to Dix and Sandfort can stay close, you won't see many makes from them.

I would give Iowa a chance if this were at Carver, but on the road it is an entirely different story.

Iowa fans are tired of Fran, and Fran just looks tired.

I'm sure Fran will be able to draw up a corner fall-away, off-balance three that banks off the side of the backboard and into the net to win the game again.

I still have nightmares about that Weizy shot.

 

[lion1983]

Peyton Sandfort plays REALLY fast. He's constantly in motion. As such, I don't think Grant is the best matchup to defend him. I think we might need to put JWill on him, and Ace on Dix (who doesn't run around as fast, and will be bothered by Ace's length on the perimeter).

Interesting - and maybe the best way to go. I just worry a little about the 6'4" Williams being shot over by the 6'8" Sandfort. But your point is well taken.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Interesting - and maybe the best way to go. I just worry a little about the 6'4" Williams being shot over by the 6'8" Sandfort. But your point is well taken.

For some reason, I thought Peyton was 6-6. You’re right that 6-8 shooting over 6-4 might be too easy, even if JWill can stay in his shorts all night. Might need to mix it up all night.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The line for the game on ESPN is -5.5 Rutgers. To me they’re kind of splitting the difference between an effective Ace and an ineffective or entirely absent Ace. Personally, I would have the point spread maybe a point lower, maybe even two points lower if there is a word or an expectation of Ace not being himself. And I think that’s what most of us here expect. I think 5.5 with a healthy Ace is reasonable or maybe even a little low. That is if Ace were healthy and definite,I could see 5.5 6.5 and I think that’s about as high as I go But again 5.5 without Ace seems a bit high.

i will get pounded for this take......i think it matters very little, if at all if Ace plays or not with the spread.

 

[LeapinLou]

If the two perimeter defenders assigned to Dix and Sandfort can stay close, you won't see many makes from them.

I would give Iowa a chance if this were at Carver, but on the road it is an entirely different story.

Iowa fans are tired of Fran, and Fran just looks tired.

Thanks for stopping by. I thought the dynamics between Fran and his kids was weird. Then one kid needs a mental health break. Although Fran is an Iowa legend, I can see where you guys think the relationship has run it's course and now it's time for a divorce.

PS - Is one of his sons still dating Caitlyn Clark or am I thinking of another Iowa player?

 

[lion1983]

Interesting - and maybe the best way to go. I just worry a little about the 6'4" Williams being shot over by the 6'8" Sandfort. But your point is well taken.

Do we really know how tall any of these guys truly are? He is listed at 6'8" He might only be 6'6" or 6'7".

Heck, Sommerville is listed at 6'10", but he is nowhere near that - maybe a little over 6'8". Acuff is listed at 6'4" but is clearly at least 1" shorter than Williams. Martini is listed at 6'8" or 6'7" but looks shorter than Derkack to me (Derkack listed at 6'6" - and probably is about that). Ogbole and Bailey are both listed at 6'10", yet Ogbole is clearly taller than Bailey ... Dortch may be 6'9" - or even taller, actually. Grant looks more than 1" taller than Derkack - Grant is listed at 6'7". Harper looks taller than Derkack, yet both are listed at the same height.

I am so confused ...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Pretty sure Ron is still growing.

 

[Degaz-RU]

PS - Is one of his sons still dating Caitlyn Clark or am I thinking of another Iowa player?

Pretty sure the McCaffrey who is dating Clark was with her at her number retiring ceremony at Carver-Hawkeye last week.

 

[BrewHawk]

Thanks for stopping by. I thought the dynamics between Fran and his kids was weird. Then one kid needs a mental health break. Although Fran is an Iowa legend, I can see where you guys think the relationship has run it's course and now it's time for a divorce.

PS - Is one of his sons still dating Caitlyn Clark or am I thinking of another Iowa player?

I certainly wouldn't ever refer to Fran as an Iowa legend, never making it out of the first weekend of the tourney.

Yes, his son Connor is Caitlin's boyfriend.

I've been done with Fran since before covid.

 

[LeapinLou]

Yes, his son Connor is Caitlin's boyfriend.

Maybe it's time for Fran to find a new career.

 

[TRU2RU]

Lots of talk on Iowa board that Fran will retire after this season

 

[BrewHawk]

Lots of blind hope on Iowa board that Fran will retire after this season

FIFY

 

[lion1983]

FYI, it looks like Iowa changed its starting line-up the last 2 games with Freeman out - and not just replacing Freeman. The last 2 games Harding has not started (sick, hurt or coach's decision, I do not know).

If Iowa starts the same 5 as they have the last 2 games, RU's matching up on defdnse would likely be:

Sommerville v Mulvey (6'11" red-shirt JR)

Williams on the 6'6" PG Dix, a 14 ppg scorer and good 3-point shooter (44%)

Grant on Sandfort (Iowa's leading scorer playing - Freeman was but he is out), and 6'8" and a shooter.

Bailey on Treore - Treore is 6'7" and does not shoot a lot of 3's - so Bailey defending him makes sense if RU wants Bailey to play the role of helping away from his man.

Harper on Thelwell. Thelwell is 6'3"and a good 3-point shooter.

That said, maybe Bailey goes on Sandfort, if he is considered a better deterrent of the 3-point shot than Grant? Sandfort takes 58% of his shots from 3 ... so who do you want away from the defensive backboard, Grant or Bailey, and who do you want to "help" away from his man, Grant or Bailey?

So ... 6'3" Thelwell is also out (has averaged 10.5 ppg and 2.4 reb/g. It turns out I DID hear correctly over the weekend on a broadcast that Iowa had someone else hurt.

I presume Harding goes back into the starting line-up - he was Iowa's starting PG until he did not start the last 2 games (for reasons unbeknownst to me). He was averaging 8.7 ppg, with 5.5 ass/g (very good) and a very solid 2.3 ass-TO ratio. If so ... Payton Sandfort, Dix, Mulvey (for Freeman), ... Traore (6'7" forward started the last 2 games) ... and ... Harding? Dembele?

So ... In Freeman's absence:

Mulvey, 6'11": Has played 13 games, started the last 2 ... In the last 3 games (1st, subbing for an injured Freeman, then 2 starts for Freeman): 11 minutes, 14 minutes, 9 minutes ... Totals of 2 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 blocked shot.

Dembele, 6'8" 250: Has played 23 games, starting 11, averaging 15 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg ... Last 3 games: 5 minutes (previous 2 games before that was 4 and 2 minutes each game), 14 minutes, 24 minutes (big ramp up). Totals over those 3 games and 43 minutes: 7 points (all in the last game), 4 rebounds, 2 turnovers and 7 fouls (all 7 in the last 2 games).

Traore, 6'7": Has played 17 games, started the last 2 games, has averaged 17 mpg on the year, 6.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, with 13 blocked shots and 22 assists. In these 3 games he has had 20 minutes (after Freemen left the game), 11 minutes as starter, then 30 minutes in the last game. His totals are: 22 points (13, 0 and 9), 7-19 FG (4-13 in the last game), 1-5 3-pointers (1-4 in the last game), 7-10 FT - all in the game 3 games ago when he had 13 minutes), 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 turnovers (3 blocks).

It would seem 2 of Dembele, Traore and Harding would likely start - though I guess they could try a 6'7" Pryce Sandfort also (averages 8+ ppg off the bench mostly). We will see at game time. I have to figure it should be Harding - he is just 6'0", so maybe a defensive match-up issue? Weird. Can't figure it out in advance.