From the Gameday thread, my quick speculation on match-ups and keys.
Even though Davis was terrific disrupting Baldwin, I agree with Richie O in the Gameday thread - Pike has many times stated he doesn't change the line-up after wins, and RU has been playing much better in the 2 games of this current starting line-up ... do not think Davis gets the start over Acuff. It is not just how the starters play, or play together, but how the substitution patterns and rotations play out with this starting line-up versus prior starting line-ups. We will see.
I suspect Harper will begin defending Baldwin (Acuff is too poor a defender, I would think - though he has to start on SOMEONE, eh?). In the prior game vs PSU, when Davis was not covering Baldwin, Harper was the primary Baldwin defender. Then, when Williams and Davis come in they take turns on Baldwin.
FYI: To me the key would be keeping PSU under 8-0 points, plus not turning the ball over TOO much. PSU is 11-2 when they score over 80 points, and 1-4 when they score 80 points or fewer. And they force 16+ turnovers per game ... in the last game RU committed 14 turnovers. On the road, I hope RU can do a little better. PSU is a very good offensive team, so it is hard work keeping their offense below 80 points - which RU did in December. PSU shoots 49% overall FG, 34% from 3, but takes just 34% of their overall FG from 3 (lower percentage than RU's 35.7%). PSU uses their 3-point shooting and dribble-drive penetration to set up many at the rim, short mid-range and mid-range shots - and they shoot 56.5% from 2-point range, which is pretty good. Baldwin, Kern, and Dilione all take 60% or more of their FG's from inside 3-point range (Kern is ALL drive, slash, floaters, inside the paint shooting - and hits 60% of his FG. Kern has been PSU's 2nd best player this year, as their 6th man. Plus Niederhouser , the center, takes 8 FG's tries a game, shooting 61% FG.
Penn State's starting line-up, without Puff Johnson, would seem likely to be: Baldwin, Dilione at Guards, Niederhouser at Center (7'0"), Hicks at WF and Kern for Puff Johnson. Kern has been PSU's 2nd best player, to Baldwin. Ogbole and Sommerville did a very good job on Niederhouser in the last game between RU and PSU.
Baldwin is their best player and their engine: Leading scorer, best defender, best distributor ... disrupt and/or defend, limit him, you limit PSU's offense. Kern has been their next best player. Hicks is their designated 3-point assassin - 73% of his FG tries are from 3 - he had a very good shooting game vs RU in December. If I had to guess on initial match-ups:
Sommerville on Niederhouser
Harper on Baldwin
Acuff on Dilione
Bailey on Hicks
Grant on Kern
Grant on Kern is an interesting one ... Grant definitely has the athleticism - but will have to not lose Kern on cuts - Kern cuts into the lane and to the basket all the time. And keep a body on him to prevent offensive rebounds (Kern is #3 on PSU in offensive rebounding).
Ogbole and Sommerville have to keep a body on Niederhouser, PSU's best offensive rebounder.
Whoever covers Hicks has to stay on him, as often as possible - and close well. One problem with Bailey on Hicks is that Bailey cannot cheat off him as much for help defense ... maybe it might be better to have Bailey on Kern - use his height and length to disrupt Kern ... but the downside there is he also can't cheat off Kern, since Kern slashes so effectively to the rim, if you cheat Kern will get lay-up after lay-up. Hey ... for Pikiell to figure out, eh?
Whoever covers Baldwin must stop his dribble penetration - that is how he gets a lot of his shots, and a lot of assists.
Get Niederhouser in foul trouble, and PSU has a problem, as Nzeh is generally not that good and only averages 12 mpg - and is only 6'8" anyway. If Niederhouser gets in foul trouble, with Puff Johnson out, PSU has a problem defending inside the paint - and will rely even more heavily on pressuring to create turnovers and to prevent effective attacks at the rim. Neiderhouser is PSU only rim protector threat (41 blocked shots in 18 games - no one else with more than 8 blocked shots). maybe Harper attacking the rim gets Niederhouser in foul trouble?
Even though Davis was terrific disrupting Baldwin, I agree with Richie O in the Gameday thread - Pike has many times stated he doesn't change the line-up after wins, and RU has been playing much better in the 2 games of this current starting line-up ... do not think Davis gets the start over Acuff. It is not just how the starters play, or play together, but how the substitution patterns and rotations play out with this starting line-up versus prior starting line-ups. We will see.
I suspect Harper will begin defending Baldwin (Acuff is too poor a defender, I would think - though he has to start on SOMEONE, eh?). In the prior game vs PSU, when Davis was not covering Baldwin, Harper was the primary Baldwin defender. Then, when Williams and Davis come in they take turns on Baldwin.
FYI: To me the key would be keeping PSU under 8-0 points, plus not turning the ball over TOO much. PSU is 11-2 when they score over 80 points, and 1-4 when they score 80 points or fewer. And they force 16+ turnovers per game ... in the last game RU committed 14 turnovers. On the road, I hope RU can do a little better. PSU is a very good offensive team, so it is hard work keeping their offense below 80 points - which RU did in December. PSU shoots 49% overall FG, 34% from 3, but takes just 34% of their overall FG from 3 (lower percentage than RU's 35.7%). PSU uses their 3-point shooting and dribble-drive penetration to set up many at the rim, short mid-range and mid-range shots - and they shoot 56.5% from 2-point range, which is pretty good. Baldwin, Kern, and Dilione all take 60% or more of their FG's from inside 3-point range (Kern is ALL drive, slash, floaters, inside the paint shooting - and hits 60% of his FG. Kern has been PSU's 2nd best player this year, as their 6th man. Plus Niederhouser , the center, takes 8 FG's tries a game, shooting 61% FG.
Penn State's starting line-up, without Puff Johnson, would seem likely to be: Baldwin, Dilione at Guards, Niederhouser at Center (7'0"), Hicks at WF and Kern for Puff Johnson. Kern has been PSU's 2nd best player, to Baldwin. Ogbole and Sommerville did a very good job on Niederhouser in the last game between RU and PSU.
Baldwin is their best player and their engine: Leading scorer, best defender, best distributor ... disrupt and/or defend, limit him, you limit PSU's offense. Kern has been their next best player. Hicks is their designated 3-point assassin - 73% of his FG tries are from 3 - he had a very good shooting game vs RU in December. If I had to guess on initial match-ups:
Sommerville on Niederhouser
Harper on Baldwin
Acuff on Dilione
Bailey on Hicks
Grant on Kern
Grant on Kern is an interesting one ... Grant definitely has the athleticism - but will have to not lose Kern on cuts - Kern cuts into the lane and to the basket all the time. And keep a body on him to prevent offensive rebounds (Kern is #3 on PSU in offensive rebounding).
Ogbole and Sommerville have to keep a body on Niederhouser, PSU's best offensive rebounder.
Whoever covers Hicks has to stay on him, as often as possible - and close well. One problem with Bailey on Hicks is that Bailey cannot cheat off him as much for help defense ... maybe it might be better to have Bailey on Kern - use his height and length to disrupt Kern ... but the downside there is he also can't cheat off Kern, since Kern slashes so effectively to the rim, if you cheat Kern will get lay-up after lay-up. Hey ... for Pikiell to figure out, eh?
Whoever covers Baldwin must stop his dribble penetration - that is how he gets a lot of his shots, and a lot of assists.
Get Niederhouser in foul trouble, and PSU has a problem, as Nzeh is generally not that good and only averages 12 mpg - and is only 6'8" anyway. If Niederhouser gets in foul trouble, with Puff Johnson out, PSU has a problem defending inside the paint - and will rely even more heavily on pressuring to create turnovers and to prevent effective attacks at the rim. Neiderhouser is PSU only rim protector threat (41 blocked shots in 18 games - no one else with more than 8 blocked shots). maybe Harper attacking the rim gets Niederhouser in foul trouble?
