Real Reasons Why RU Might Have a Chance to Beat OSU - Jellyman's Abbreviated Thoughts

[jellyman]

No time for a full Reasons to Hope or Worry (have not done one this season, sorry - emotionally beaten down before the WSU and PSU games, been too busy lately ... takes a lot of time to do those posts).

Still, I will post a SERIOUS look at a path for an RU upset in this thread.

Understand, I think there is a strong likelihood RU gets absolutely blitzed in this game losing by 4 or more TD's - speed kills, and OSU has more speed everywhere (plus still is bigger and stronger).

But ... there is a path to victory, however unlikely. Here is MY idea of the path:

1) RU MUST move the ball on offense, and eat clock, getting time of possession to keep OSU's offense OFF THE FIELD, and to limit OSU's scoring chances.

2) RU MUST win the turnover battle ... I do not think even a tie will do it, but an outright +1 or more in turnovers seems likely to be necessary. Probably +2 or +3 in turnover ratio will be required.

3) As part of #1, RU's OL MUST give Laviano enough time to throw. One of the best plays not involving throwing to Carroo the last 2 games has been RU's short to medium crossing route success, which help move the chains. But even short crossing routes require TIME, as they are slow developing routes .. meaning the QB needs to be protected for 3-4 seconds, at least.

4) RU Special Teams must produce: Returns, blocks, good punting, FG's ... some combination of good special teams play must be executed.

5) Big Plays: RU must limit OSU's explosive plays, while generating SOME of their own explosive plays.

6) RU will have to score more than 30 points, I suspect ...probably at least 35 points ... a tough task. They do not all have to be through the offense: Special teams or defensive scores count also ... or at least create short fields with turnovers and special teams. OSU has only scored fewer than 34 points ONCE this year, against Northern Illinois (not sure what happened THERE, LOL!). And RU's defense does not seem like it would be capable to being the only other team to limit OSU to under 34 points. Which means RU has to find a path to score more than 30 or 35 points. Unfortunately, only 3 teams have even scored even 24 points against OSU, and none more than 28 points. Maryland score 28, Indiana score 27 (playing the last quarter, at least, without Sudfield AND Howard). V. Tech scored 24 points. It IS possible that RU's offense is actually better than any team OSU has yet to play ... not certain, but it IS possible ... especially if Carroo plays, and Laviano continues to improve.

Long odds, and a LOT has to go right ... OSU is really, really good, and RU is ... not really, really good.

 

[RU4Real]

Only pointing out that producing points on special teams means keeping your defense on the field.

Other than that, good stuff.

 

[jellyman]

Only pointing out that producing points on special teams means keeping your defense on the field.

Other than that, good stuff.

Partly true, LOL!

On the other hand ... punt returns, punt and FG blocks ... they also potentially count as special teams points, or short fields.

 

[DJ Spanky]

So it sounds like you're saying that if we score more points than they do, we might just possibly be able to pull this game out.

 

[Extra Point]

Is Carroo healthy? There are two real reasons. For some reason teams playing at night in our stadium get the deer in the headlight syndrome.

 

[mildone]

Is Carroo healthy? There are two real reasons. For some reason teams playing at night in our stadium get the deer in the headlight syndrome.

Given that OSU returned many of their two-deep players from last year, and those players won both the Big Ten championship and the NCAA championship games, I'm going to venture a guess that they will not get deer in the headlight syndrome this Saturday.

They might be surprised by the stadium volume given that they're stadium houses twice as many people but yet it's still disruptively loud in Piscataway. But they're unlikely to actually be fazed by any of it.

 

[BleedinRutgersRed]

5) Big Plays: RU must limit OSU's explosive plays, while generating SOME of their own explosive plays.

The problem with our defense playing a 'limit big play' defense is that we play such a soft zone that every pass within 10-15 yards is guaranteed to be completed. They can do this all night and turn it into another 500-600 yards of offense against us.

 

[jellyman]

The problem with our defense playing a 'limit big play' defense is that we play such a soft zone that every pass within 10-15 yards is guaranteed to be completed. They can do this all night and turn it into another 500-600 yards of offense against us.

This is not true, at least not the last 2 games. RU's CB's are playing tighter coverage and more man defense. But without pressure on the QB they are not experienced or strong enough to maintain ocverage ... though that can be said for many DB's.

 

[rufullerton]

No time for a full Reasons to Hope or Worry (have not done one this season, sorry - emotionally beaten down before the WSU and PSU games, been too busy lately ... takes a lot of time to do those posts).

Still, I will post a SERIOUS look at a path for an RU upset in this thread.

Understand, I think there is a strong likelihood RU gets absolutely blitzed in this game losing by 4 or more TD's - speed kills, and OSU has more speed everywhere (plus still is bigger and stronger).

But ... there is a path to victory, however unlikely. Here is MY idea of the path:

1) RU MUST move the ball on offense, and eat clock, getting time of possession to keep OSU's offense OFF THE FIELD, and to limit OSU's scoring chances.

2) RU MUST win the turnover battle ... I do not think even a tie will do it, but an outright +1 or more in turnovers seems likely to be necessary. Probably +2 or +3 in turnover ratio will be required.

3) As part of #1, RU's OL MUST give Laviano enough time to throw. One of the best plays not involving throwing to Carroo the last 2 games has been RU's short to medium crossing route success, which help move the chains. But even short crossing routes require TIME, as they are slow developing routes .. meaning the QB needs to be protected for 3-4 seconds, at least.

4) RU Special Teams must produce: Returns, blocks, good punting, FG's ... some combination of good special teams play must be executed.

5) Big Plays: RU must limit OSU's explosive plays, while generating SOME of their own explosive plays.

6) RU will have to score more than 30 points, I suspect ...probably at least 35 points ... a tough task. They do not all have to be through the offense: Special teams or defensive scores count also ... or at least create short fields with turnovers and special teams. OSU has only scored fewer than 34 points ONCE this year, against Northern Illinois (not sure what happened THERE, LOL!). And RU's defense does not seem like it would be capable to being the only other team to limit OSU to under 34 points. Which means RU has to find a path to score more than 30 or 35 points. Unfortunately, only 3 teams have even scored even 24 points against OSU, and none more than 28 points. Maryland score 28, Indiana score 27 (playing the last quarter, at least, without Sudfield AND Howard). V. Tech scored 24 points. It IS possible that RU's offense is actually better than any team OSU has yet to play ... not certain, but it IS possible ... especially if Carroo plays, and Laviano continues to improve.

Long odds, and a LOT has to go right ... OSU is really, really good, and RU is ... not really, really good.

I will say this.
NONE of this will happen unless we have a SOLID running game. I know Martin has looked the best, but in this game, we must rotate everyone to keep our RB's fresh and produce 4+ yds average/carry. No amount of trick/fake plays, screens, intermediate to long plays will work unless we run the ball. And I like our running game.

Defensively: OMG it's going to be hard but one thing I know for sure, 4 man rush, zone coverage will not work. We need to attack, blitz and leave our corner 1 on 1 and hope for the best. I will say to the tune of 2 to 1 ratio.

 

[RUTGERZ_R00LZ]

For RU to beat OSU it will take a perfect storm of events with the vast majority of them in our favor. A tipped pass there, a fumble here, a blocked punt here, a funny bounce over there, an INT in the end zone. rinse and repeat. But, yes, it can be done. Although OSU is still #!, they really haven't been man-handling anyone, like last year.

Go RU.

 

[DHajekRC84]

We need OSU's receivers to drop passes like MSU's did against UM and not catch every freakin thing like they did like against us.

 

[MURF87]

I will say this.
NONE of this will happen unless we have a SOLID running game. I know Martin has looked the best, but in this game, we must rotate everyone to keep our RB's fresh and produce 4+ yds average/carry. No amount of trick/fake plays, screens, intermediate to long plays will work unless we run the ball. And I like our running game.

Defensively: OMG it's going to be hard but one thing I know for sure, 4 man rush, zone coverage will not work. We need to attack, blitz and leave our corner 1 on 1 and hope for the best. I will say to the tune of 2 to 1 ratio.

I agree with this, especially the defensive game. One thing about the blitzing though is that our guys MUST make the tackle after ripping through the line. So many times over the last few years, especially on critical downs, opposing QBs have dodged the blitz and either: 1) scramble for big yardage or 2) scramble and find a wide open guy for a big gain. When we blitz, make it count and hit hard.

 

[jonS]

We also need to avoid costly penalties , especially pre-snap penalties that make it difficult to control the ball on offense. We also can't allow OSU extra downs on offense.

 

[Rokodesh]

need Gause and Longa to play at a monster level to have any chance. Send Hester or Cioffi from the edges and make them uncomfortable

 

[Ru2bnj]

I will be very surprised if RU holds OSU under 40 points. They seem to be getting their offense up to speed lately. They have too many explosive players ..both on offense and defense. When you have that on the field, it generally leads to big plays. RU might hang in this game for a while. I don't think it's going to be close by the end of the 3rd quarter (of course I hope i'm wrong - but i'm a realist). I want to see the team play smart, tough and hard for the full game. If they get beat by 3 or 4 TDs..so be it. I just don't want to see sloppy and uninspired play.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

Limit tOSU to 7 or fewer points on their first 3 drives and we have a shot.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Jelly

Nailed it

I think we also need to make this a limited offensive possession game and limited snaps game (120 plays)

 

[RUsilencer]

There is zero chance of winning unless we can get off the field on 3rd down. RU may be last in CFB in giving up 1st downs on 3rd down.

 

[Kbee3]

Given that OSU returned many of their two-deep players from last year, and those players won both the Big Ten championship and the NCAA championship games, I'm going to venture a guess that they will not get deer in the headlight syndrome this Saturday.

They might be surprised by the stadium volume given that they're stadium houses twice as many people but yet it's still disruptively loud in Piscataway. But they're unlikely to actually be fazed by any of it.

Yep.
Our best chance is for them to come here sleepwalking and not waking up until they're headed back to Buckeye country.

 

[rucoe89]

"Win" should equal keeping the score within 10. Beyond that it could get ugly .... and fast.