No time for a full Reasons to Hope or Worry (have not done one this season, sorry - emotionally beaten down before the WSU and PSU games, been too busy lately ... takes a lot of time to do those posts).
Still, I will post a SERIOUS look at a path for an RU upset in this thread.
Understand, I think there is a strong likelihood RU gets absolutely blitzed in this game losing by 4 or more TD's - speed kills, and OSU has more speed everywhere (plus still is bigger and stronger).
But ... there is a path to victory, however unlikely. Here is MY idea of the path:
1) RU MUST move the ball on offense, and eat clock, getting time of possession to keep OSU's offense OFF THE FIELD, and to limit OSU's scoring chances.
2) RU MUST win the turnover battle ... I do not think even a tie will do it, but an outright +1 or more in turnovers seems likely to be necessary. Probably +2 or +3 in turnover ratio will be required.
3) As part of #1, RU's OL MUST give Laviano enough time to throw. One of the best plays not involving throwing to Carroo the last 2 games has been RU's short to medium crossing route success, which help move the chains. But even short crossing routes require TIME, as they are slow developing routes .. meaning the QB needs to be protected for 3-4 seconds, at least.
4) RU Special Teams must produce: Returns, blocks, good punting, FG's ... some combination of good special teams play must be executed.
5) Big Plays: RU must limit OSU's explosive plays, while generating SOME of their own explosive plays.
6) RU will have to score more than 30 points, I suspect ...probably at least 35 points ... a tough task. They do not all have to be through the offense: Special teams or defensive scores count also ... or at least create short fields with turnovers and special teams. OSU has only scored fewer than 34 points ONCE this year, against Northern Illinois (not sure what happened THERE, LOL!). And RU's defense does not seem like it would be capable to being the only other team to limit OSU to under 34 points. Which means RU has to find a path to score more than 30 or 35 points. Unfortunately, only 3 teams have even scored even 24 points against OSU, and none more than 28 points. Maryland score 28, Indiana score 27 (playing the last quarter, at least, without Sudfield AND Howard). V. Tech scored 24 points. It IS possible that RU's offense is actually better than any team OSU has yet to play ... not certain, but it IS possible ... especially if Carroo plays, and Laviano continues to improve.
Long odds, and a LOT has to go right ... OSU is really, really good, and RU is ... not really, really good.
Still, I will post a SERIOUS look at a path for an RU upset in this thread.
Understand, I think there is a strong likelihood RU gets absolutely blitzed in this game losing by 4 or more TD's - speed kills, and OSU has more speed everywhere (plus still is bigger and stronger).
But ... there is a path to victory, however unlikely. Here is MY idea of the path:
1) RU MUST move the ball on offense, and eat clock, getting time of possession to keep OSU's offense OFF THE FIELD, and to limit OSU's scoring chances.
2) RU MUST win the turnover battle ... I do not think even a tie will do it, but an outright +1 or more in turnovers seems likely to be necessary. Probably +2 or +3 in turnover ratio will be required.
3) As part of #1, RU's OL MUST give Laviano enough time to throw. One of the best plays not involving throwing to Carroo the last 2 games has been RU's short to medium crossing route success, which help move the chains. But even short crossing routes require TIME, as they are slow developing routes .. meaning the QB needs to be protected for 3-4 seconds, at least.
4) RU Special Teams must produce: Returns, blocks, good punting, FG's ... some combination of good special teams play must be executed.
5) Big Plays: RU must limit OSU's explosive plays, while generating SOME of their own explosive plays.
6) RU will have to score more than 30 points, I suspect ...probably at least 35 points ... a tough task. They do not all have to be through the offense: Special teams or defensive scores count also ... or at least create short fields with turnovers and special teams. OSU has only scored fewer than 34 points ONCE this year, against Northern Illinois (not sure what happened THERE, LOL!). And RU's defense does not seem like it would be capable to being the only other team to limit OSU to under 34 points. Which means RU has to find a path to score more than 30 or 35 points. Unfortunately, only 3 teams have even scored even 24 points against OSU, and none more than 28 points. Maryland score 28, Indiana score 27 (playing the last quarter, at least, without Sudfield AND Howard). V. Tech scored 24 points. It IS possible that RU's offense is actually better than any team OSU has yet to play ... not certain, but it IS possible ... especially if Carroo plays, and Laviano continues to improve.
Long odds, and a LOT has to go right ... OSU is really, really good, and RU is ... not really, really good.
