Get to the 8/9 slot in the Big Tourney. Currently RU is one game back of Nebby and OSU. Have the tie breaker over Nebby. 8/9 slot gets a first round bye,
Realistic Goal
- Thread starter RUBigFrank
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Rutgers needs to win the two home games against USC and Minnesota.Theere are going to be lots of teams with comparable records where the tie breakers will determine seeding.
This is from before the Washington game, so it would look a little better now, but it doesn't seem like we have hardly any chance at getting the first round bye. We would have to win at least one of our road games. 8 wins wouldn't get it done, because all those teams bunched ahead of us play each other, so somebody has to win. Plus we lose the tiebreaker to Oregon, OSU, & Indiana
That's not a realistic goal at all. We'd likely have to go 4-0 to get the 9 seed. And even then, it still might not be enough.
Here's the site where you can simulate results to see how the bracket would look:
https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
Here's the site where you can simulate results to see how the bracket would look:
https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
agree its not realistic to think they can beat either Purdue/Michigan
the goal is beat USC and Minnesota, finish 8-12 and maybe get in that 12/13 spo for a matchup vs Indiana or USC
the goal is beat USC and Minnesota, finish 8-12 and maybe get in that 12/13 spo for a matchup vs Indiana or USC
I'll also say that from playing around with that site, we're almost certainly in if we win just 1 of our last 4
I just pray that it doesn't come down to having to win that lastgame against Minnysoda. Nothing good ever comes from us playing that team! 😳
Images of our team singing on the sidelines to “Africa” still haunt me.
So many of us Rutgers fans have PTSD from so many years of being Rutgers fans it’s scary!!
Minne is playing very well lately. Garcia is a matchup nightmare for us.
sorry....who isn't a matchup nightmare for us?
we are getting beat by players 1,2,3,4 and 5. We may be better off playing a team with a star where maybe the defensive focus is more narrow than everything
I guess if you really still believe Ru has a chance of running the BTT table to get into the NCAA you want that but frankly I'd prefer more wins on the record. Playing a lower seeded team round 1 gives us a chance to go at least maybe go 2-1 and finish 500 overall if we go in at 15-16.
Pikiell has had trouble with Minnesota over the years...not at home but piss poor performance on the road where his team played zero defense
can you explain to me why Pike a defensive coach you laud as been so atrocious at defending Minnesota on the road....and not just them, hideous Nebby teams in the past..this with Geo and Ron
thread the needle is no way to play hoops so it all collapse when 1 person is injured...see Mag going down and a total abomination thereafter
It is strange that some of our worst defensive performances have been AT Minnesota. Do recall we won a huge game AT Minnesota that essentially was a game to get in to the NCAAs. I believe Jacob Young put the team on his back in that one.
As far as an explanation....you aren't going to want to hear this.....given that rosters change on both sides and coaches change for Minny I believe it is pure coincidence.
Guys off the Pike train have ammunition (don't agree) for why he might not be the guy for the future. His performance in a few games against Minnesota should not be Exhibit A,B or C....or even F
Agreed. No different really than J Will nailing 2 of 2 from long range last game. Just random.
Assuming 3-1 gets us a bye, naturally winning both at home is a must, and I give us a puncher’s chance against UM.
It’s a tall order (pun intended) but we played them fairly close (66-63) without Dylan (or EO), and with Bailey shooting 0-7 from three.
JMike and Acuff stepped up in our previous matchup, and while we shouldn’t expect that again, we have to hope our role players as a whole really bring it, and that Dylan and Ace show out.
It’s a tall order (pun intended) but we played them fairly close (66-63) without Dylan (or EO), and with Bailey shooting 0-7 from three.
JMike and Acuff stepped up in our previous matchup, and while we shouldn’t expect that again, we have to hope our role players as a whole really bring it, and that Dylan and Ace show out.
Going to threading the needle......how many teams in all the years haven won threading the needle. Usually the ones standing are the ones threading the needle.
Who is to say RU isn't 1 play from being in the Final 4---Myles getting hurt in 1st round
If Grant Nelson turns his ankle in the 2nd rund vs Grand Canyon do they beat UNC and ultimately end up in the Final 4
Does Purdue win the National Championship in 2023 if thy don't lose to St peter's
The real threading the needle is trying to win on the night to night basis in the B1G with a bad D.
Well that happens in a conference. Certain teams just have a hard time beating other teams sometimes home and away. Wisconsin had lost to Illinois 9 straight times before beating them the other night.
The Minnesota loss that was hurtful also had us with a double digit lead in the second half , so it was not as if we didn’t play well, until the meltdown occurred. Pike doesn’t hold onto leads well , even in the Nebraska game this year that should have been a 10 point win, was a 1 point win.
You need a top 9 seed to get a first-round bye under the new format. Rutgers was mathematically eliminated from getting as high as 9 with the loss to Oregon. It's in the chart.
Not sure why there's even a debate about this.
Not sure why there's even a debate about this.
We got a bye in 311 of their 100,000 simulations. I guess that would have gone up a little with our Washington win. So it's not impossible, but it's not happening either haha.
Not true. 4-0 no matter how unlikely brings us to 10-10. Illinois has 8 losses and plays Michigan and Purdue. Nebraska has 9 losses and if they go 3-1 , they are at 10-10. Ohio has 9 losses and they need to go 3-1 to get to 10-10 but have upcoming UCLA/ USC swing out west and Indiana on the road to close. Likely they split at best and get to 9-11. That leaves Oregon in the 8th slot and we have the tiebreaker over Illinois and Nebraska as we beat both of them and we get the 9th spot. So very very likely scenario if we go 4-0 but that is unlikely.
You're right, my bad. I just looked at the 0% number for the 9 seed in the second chart and incorrectly assumed it literally meant 0%
I was going off of...if we go 4-0 and the favorite wins in all the other games for the rest of the year... we'd come in 10th (tied with Ohio St for 9th but we lose tiebreaker).
So yes, if we go 4-0 AND there are upsets elsewhere, there are scenarios where we could get a bye.
Not really worth talking about though because I think we can all agree we aren't going 4-0
The 8/9 slot and getting a bye is not realistic. That would require this team winning out, which would be 5 wins in a row counting the Washington win and that just isn’t realistic with this group. Just making the tournament with whatever seed they get is realistic. They really should make it at this point after the Washington win. If we beat USC on Sunday I would say we clinched making the tournament.
Not talking upsets. Illinois will be underdogs to Purdue and Michigan. Ohio State will be underdogs to UCLA , likely to USC and maybe to Indiana . Nebraska will be hard pressed to go 3-1.
You keep injecting Ohio State into the equation and I have them finishing 9-11 at best.
We win tiebreakers against Illinois and Nebraska.
One game at a time and have to get W against USC , who played well at Maryland and still lost by double digits.
It's highly likely we won't win 3 conference games in a row all season. Forget 5.
All true but that wasn’t the scenario presented. It was if RU goes 4-0 do we get the 9 seed and a bye , knowing we hold tiebreakers over Illinois and Nebraska. ? That was the discussion.
but rutgers fans are so delusional, an overtime win over the last place big 10 team whose best player fouled out before the end of regulation is some turn the corner moment for them..the same ones who had RU still alive at 10-10
they think a school that was 5-10 at one point in league play is going to reel off 5 in a row...its fascinating to watch them throughout the year get excited over little morsels while ignoring the train was already derailed when they lost to Princeton
So, you’re saying there’s a chance (you knew someone would say that). 😎
And then there is you that blows with the wind. Give a great praise after a win and then an indictment with a loss. I have been telling you a lot lately that you have no nuance. Everything is rosy or a disaster. No in between. You used to be able to see the Forest thru the trees but now let’s be all negative in every damn post. Suprised by that and not the poster I have known for years. You are now degrading Big 10 road wins for a team with the second most Quad 1 games in the country. Just Wow! Everyone is disappointed but just Wow!
There is no forest through the trees with this program. What trees? All the trees are gone in 3 weeks.
13-14 is reality
Short term wins but big picture failure
Forest thru trees? Our 2 best players are gone next year . A wasted season.
I am not sure what you mean about the positive. Are you saying that the current trajectory of the program past 3 seasons (since the Mag injury against MSU Rutgers has a total record of 31-38) should be viewed more positively or just the Washington road win? It was a nice win and it was a road win, a win always beats a loss, but it was only against Washington. The disappointment of this season plus the downward trajectory of the program the last several years impacts opinion of the current state of the team. The 31-38 record over the last 69 games and the 13-14 record this season makes it difficult at times to see the need for excitement over a win against Washington, currently in 17th place in the B1G. This team rattling off a winning streak of 4 or 5 games would generate some positive mojo for sure, but we haven’t seen that this year.
I liked watching them win against Washington as much as the next RU fan, but I also kept the win in context of what else I have watched this team do on the court this season. Just because they beat Washington does not make me forget the defense that has never really improved through 27 games, despite Pike telling us multiple times in post games “this team is getting close, they’re getting close”. They never came close to getting better defensively.
Yes our defense sucks and much worse than anyone imagined and why we are 13-14 and with a lick of defense or even mediocre defense could be 18-9 right now. The shame is it truly has not really gotten any better from Game 1 to Game 27. The same mistakes over and over .
"if a tree falls in the forest and there's nobody there to hear it did it actually make a sound?"
“If a tree falls in the forest and there’s nobody to defend the rim did it actually result in a layup”……oh wait, my bad, that’s our defensive scheme
