17 with a 27 SOS. Keep it going. Next big test is Princeton on Wednesday.
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_161_Women.html
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_161_Women.html
RPI up to ....
- Thread starter RUClassof67
- Start date
I kind of like it that they apparently are still "unknown" to the pollsters. It just seems that Rutgers teams have had some problems once they get a number attached to them.
Update: Going into Sunday’s game vs FDU, we are at 14 with an SOS of 28. Unfortunately FDU is way up there and will impact both.
67, what poll are you looking at? I lost all my bookmarks when my old puter crashed some months ago?
Can someone explain to me all of this. The way I read it (example) is a team like Purdue is likely to beat Rutgers (again) this year. Purdue is not a good team this year, but RPI says otherwise.
RPI is not a great predictor, and even less of a great predictor this early in the season. That said, relatively small differences in the actual RPI can still lead to big differences in RPI ranking.
RPI means nothing if your name is the Scarlet Knights ... our women's soccer team had an RPI of 11 on selection sunday this year (3-seed) and were given the 7-seed (#25-28) ... never count on anything. Let's go win the Big Ten !
NCAA site lists us at 14 (includes games through 12/10). Their RPI page doesn't include SOS.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi
Like BeK says, RPI is not a great predictor, nor is it intended to be.
As a measure, the first 25% is your record - obvious factor
The second half - yes half - is your opponents records. That's why it is beneficial to play teams with good records. There is a benefit to playing the best team in a weak conference, if they are the sort that dominates their conference.
The last quarter is you opponent's opponent's record - hence, there is some benefit realized from playing a mediocre team from a strong conference - they probably have a respectable over-all record from their OOC play and then in-conference you benefit from the winning records of their conference mates.
Of course, then the NCAA applies "secret" factors at selection time, relating, primarily, to home / away / neutral contests. including points differential is considered a taboo, for obvious reasons.
That said, services that do power rankings - such as Massey - are better predictors. I don't follow any of the numerical rankings, except RPI as a predictor of NCAA seeding - where there is certainly some correlation. In my personal opinion - most teams are who they look like they are if you glance at their record and who they won / lost to, without factoring in a bunch of other stuff.
To add to KTF's post, one funny thing about RPI is that it looks like opponents' record is more important than W/L, but W/L actually is the most important component. Basically, there's a lot more variation in W/L than in opponents' record, so even though it's just 25%, you can get anything from 1.00 (perfect record) to 0.00 (winless) in that category, while by the end of the year, opponents' records tend to be in a relatively narrow range.
For instance, in 2010 (hey, it's what I could find easily), the top SOS was .6454, while the bottom SOS was .3918, with a difference between top and bottom of .2536, while the top W/L was 33-0 and the worst was 0-33. (SOS actually is composed 2/3 of opponents' record and 1/3 of opponents' opponents' record, and account for 3/4 of the total RPI, but it's still useful for this purpose.) So the best you could get from W/L was 0.25 and the worst was 0.00, a difference of 0.25, while the best you could get from SOS was .4840 and the worst you could get was .2938, a difference of .1902. That means that W/L was a more important component in RPI than opponents' record and opponents' opponents' record combined.
For instance, in 2010 (hey, it's what I could find easily), the top SOS was .6454, while the bottom SOS was .3918, with a difference between top and bottom of .2536, while the top W/L was 33-0 and the worst was 0-33. (SOS actually is composed 2/3 of opponents' record and 1/3 of opponents' opponents' record, and account for 3/4 of the total RPI, but it's still useful for this purpose.) So the best you could get from W/L was 0.25 and the worst was 0.00, a difference of 0.25, while the best you could get from SOS was .4840 and the worst you could get was .2938, a difference of .1902. That means that W/L was a more important component in RPI than opponents' record and opponents' opponents' record combined.
Based on the 1 top 25 vote received it looks like they have Rutgers ranked 5th in the Big 10
Everything above about not taking RPI too seriously is correct, but that being said...
RU's RPI is now up to #12, with a #20 SOS. http://realtimerpi.com/college_Women_basketball_rpi.html
Houston is currently ranked #32, so that would be another high quality win (as of right now).
RU's RPI is now up to #12, with a #20 SOS. http://realtimerpi.com/college_Women_basketball_rpi.html
Houston is currently ranked #32, so that would be another high quality win (as of right now).
That site projects a 19-11 season for us. But while we have 2 quality wins, none of our next few opponents do, so there are definitely some winnable games. I’ll be surprised if we don’t get at least 20 wins before the regular season ends.
Next step is to beat one or more of the top Big 10 teams (Maryland, Ohio St, Iowa, Michigan). Most of those matchups don't come to the end of the schedule. First Big 10 games are :
Purdue- Dec 28
Michigan St- Dec 31
The litmus tests are coming.
Full schedule
http://www.scarletknights.com/schedule.aspx?path=wbball
Purdue- Dec 28
Michigan St- Dec 31
The litmus tests are coming.
Full schedule
http://www.scarletknights.com/schedule.aspx?path=wbball
this stuff is weird...# 8 Oregon 8-2, 0-2 top 25, 1-2 top 50 SOS 106
#18 RU 11-2 0-1 top 25, 2-1 top 50 SOS 34
#18 RU 11-2 0-1 top 25, 2-1 top 50 SOS 34
Rankings are heavily influenced by perception. Last year's record is fresh in the minds of a lot of people.
Like Dave said up the thread a bit..."RPI means nothing if your name is the Scarlet Knights." Sad, and paranoid, but true IMHO. That's why CVS, et al know why we have to just win, win, and win.
Right now, as BeK's post indicated, there is a significant difference in factor 1 (record) - .85 vs. .80
Also, they have played a few more (serious) Little Sisters than Rutgers.
That said, it would take a detail look to figure it out, something I can't convince myself I want to do.
As BeK also said, a lot of things change the larger the sample size. It is, in terms of RPI and SOS, still early.
oh, to all the replies..I get it. It is not a perfect science and early, etc. Nothing matters but winning and seeing where you are at the end. Then my favorite are those blind resume match-ups. .
I wouldn't argue we should be #8 ...I more was wondering why Oregon would be.
Does the RPI factor in margin of victory? RU has had relatively few close wins - most being in double figures. And the two losses were by a total of just 13 points, IIRC.
Thanks.
RPI is purely based on wins and losses. Not considering margin of victory is one of RPI's weaknesses. (On the other hand, some of the systems that do count margin of victory have penalized RU in the past, when pace of game meant that the team did not run up big margins compared to teams that played faster.)
https://www.masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratings
Rutgers #25, SOS 32 (to date), SSF 31 (includes future opponents), projected season 21-9. Off #100, Def #12
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Rutgers #19 SOS 36 and #10 weighted ranking for recent play (a trend indicator)
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Women_basketball_rpi.html
Rutgers #8 SOS 13
http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/college_Women_basketball_power_rankings.html
Rutgers #84 SOS 9
Massey and Sagarin have been pretty consistent with RU gradually rising with each win. The Massey season projection has been stable for weeks, but if you use the game-by-game projections, RU would be 10-5-1 for the conference season. Sagarin, the second ranking, is score-based. I have to wonder if a data-entry error occurred in the RealTime power rankings. How on earth can a 12-2 team with a top-10 schedule strength be ranked 84?
My final thought about these rankings and ratings is that I have believed since early in the season if RU could break into the top 100 in offense and stay there, the team would be fine (because the defense is so good). This is the first week RU made the top 100 in the Massey ratings this season. I suspect that is because the terrible mismatches of the guaranteed games have lessened as schedules have tightened. Not sure if BeKnighted has the ranked teams' scores in a spreadsheet--I would be interested in seeing the median and mean margins of victory as the weeks progressed during OOC play.
Rutgers #25, SOS 32 (to date), SSF 31 (includes future opponents), projected season 21-9. Off #100, Def #12
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Rutgers #19 SOS 36 and #10 weighted ranking for recent play (a trend indicator)
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Women_basketball_rpi.html
Rutgers #8 SOS 13
http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/college_Women_basketball_power_rankings.html
Rutgers #84 SOS 9
Massey and Sagarin have been pretty consistent with RU gradually rising with each win. The Massey season projection has been stable for weeks, but if you use the game-by-game projections, RU would be 10-5-1 for the conference season. Sagarin, the second ranking, is score-based. I have to wonder if a data-entry error occurred in the RealTime power rankings. How on earth can a 12-2 team with a top-10 schedule strength be ranked 84?
My final thought about these rankings and ratings is that I have believed since early in the season if RU could break into the top 100 in offense and stay there, the team would be fine (because the defense is so good). This is the first week RU made the top 100 in the Massey ratings this season. I suspect that is because the terrible mismatches of the guaranteed games have lessened as schedules have tightened. Not sure if BeKnighted has the ranked teams' scores in a spreadsheet--I would be interested in seeing the median and mean margins of victory as the weeks progressed during OOC play.
