Posted this deep in anotehr thread, thought worth posting separately.
Bad match-up for RU, especially short-handed (no Ogbole for interior, no Harper, maybe Williams still not 100%).
Without putting a prediction forward, here is what may be:
Defense:
The initial match-ups will have Sommerville on Goldin and I presume Grant on the other 7 footer, and the stretch PF Wolf. I presume whoever is RU's starting PG (Williams or Derkack) will be on Tre Donaldson, UM's 2nd leading scorer and playing really well offensively right now - BUT susceptible to the turnover (43 in 20 games). A healthy Williams would actually be a decent match-up for RU (Williams pressures well). I presume Bailey will be initially matched up vs Burnett - UM's designated 3-point sniper (65% of FG attempts from 3, 44% FG% from 3) - Bailey has been assigned a perimeter player in each of the last 3 games, presumably to use his length to bother the shooter - and with Grant and Sommerville starting, Bailey is the 3, the WF. That leaves the other starter to cover Gayle - though he has taken 50+ 3-pointers (31% of his attempts), is more an athletic slasher ... does Acuff start? Or Derkack ... Derkack is athletic enough to cover Gayle (if he maintains his defensive discipline) - and Derkack COULD be a good match as Gayle turns the ball over A LOT (44 times in 20 games, and Derkack CAN cause chaos. Acuff would likely be abused by Gayle - Gayle is WAY too athletic for Acuff.
Off the bench, Martini will have the biggest issue, as I am not even sure he is 6'6" (though listed at 6'8" ... I have no idea how he can defend Goldin or Wolf. Which means Dortch, even skinny, may have to really step up and defend Wolf, at least (using his height and length to defend against the stretch PF Wolf. If coming off the bench, Acuff needs to be solid, at least and Davis needs to be very strong defensively (he has been so in some games, not as much in other games).
The thing is ... Michigan is REALLY REALLY good offensively, so this is a real challenge. They shoot 50% FG, 37% 3-point and are a strong rebounding team. They take 44% of their FG's from 3-point range - BUT ... have a strong offensive post player in Goldin and at times Wolf. They have SEVEN (7) players who take 50% or more of their FG's from 3: Donaldson (well, just under 50% at 49% of his FG's from 3), Burnett (65% of FG tries from 3), Tschetter - a 6'9" reserve getting 15 mpg (55% of FG's from 3), Walters - a 6'10" reserve getting 13 mpg (82% of FG from 3), Cason - a 6'3" reserve - 11 mpg (55% of FG from 3), Ruben Jones - a 6'5" reserve getting 20 mpg (68% of FG from 3) and Pippen - 6'3" reserve getting just 7 mpg (70% of his 30 FG tries from 3).
On the bright side, while UM is relatively deep, they have 7 players averaging 20 mpg or more, and the remaining 4 reserves play between 7 and 15 mpg - so not consistent. More importantly, UM CAN be turnover prone - averaging almost 15 turnovers per game (the BTN earlier today pointed out UM had the most turnovers/game of any Big Ten team - and the gap between them and the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 was bigger than the gap between the 2nd worst team and the 18th worst team. So ... RU probably HAS ot force UM into turnovers to have a chance. ... or hope from a really poor 3-point FG% performance from UM. That CAN happen, though not often. UM shot 30% from 3 vs Wake Forest, and lost ... 27% vs Tarleton St (and still won going away - but Tarleton St) ... 29% vs Virginia Tech - but won by 12 ... 24% vs Wisconsin - but win by 3 ... 20% vs Iowa - and lost (but only by 2) ... 14% vs Oklahoma - and lost, but only by 1 ... 26% vs NW - and won in OT ... 21% vs Purdue and got killed ... they lost at Minny despite shooting 11-22, 50%, from 3 - not sure how they lost that game (UM had a better FG%, better 3-pt FG%, many more FT and out-rebounded Minny - the difference was 6 Minny turnovers to UM's 13 - not even a lot of UM TO's).
Offense:
Well ... pretty simple to "model", not so simple to execute:
1) Need Bailey to be very good (not necessarily other-worldly as he was in 2 of the last 3 games - but very good like in 5 of the last 6 games ... He has a 4-15 ish game, I think it would be very tough for RU to win or even keep it close ... presuming Harper is out.
2) Take care of the ball - really limit the turnovers to 10 or fewer - and more importantly, have at least a +5 turnover margin related to UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards (do not have to WIN the rebounding battle, but need to be at least adequate.
4) At least TWO other players step up offensively (3 would be better), hopefully 1 of those scoring 13-15 points, and another 1-2 players scoring 8-12 points.
5) ADDED: Have the RU home crowd be the 6th man.
Bad match-up for RU, especially short-handed (no Ogbole for interior, no Harper, maybe Williams still not 100%).
Without putting a prediction forward, here is what may be:
Defense:
The initial match-ups will have Sommerville on Goldin and I presume Grant on the other 7 footer, and the stretch PF Wolf. I presume whoever is RU's starting PG (Williams or Derkack) will be on Tre Donaldson, UM's 2nd leading scorer and playing really well offensively right now - BUT susceptible to the turnover (43 in 20 games). A healthy Williams would actually be a decent match-up for RU (Williams pressures well). I presume Bailey will be initially matched up vs Burnett - UM's designated 3-point sniper (65% of FG attempts from 3, 44% FG% from 3) - Bailey has been assigned a perimeter player in each of the last 3 games, presumably to use his length to bother the shooter - and with Grant and Sommerville starting, Bailey is the 3, the WF. That leaves the other starter to cover Gayle - though he has taken 50+ 3-pointers (31% of his attempts), is more an athletic slasher ... does Acuff start? Or Derkack ... Derkack is athletic enough to cover Gayle (if he maintains his defensive discipline) - and Derkack COULD be a good match as Gayle turns the ball over A LOT (44 times in 20 games, and Derkack CAN cause chaos. Acuff would likely be abused by Gayle - Gayle is WAY too athletic for Acuff.
Off the bench, Martini will have the biggest issue, as I am not even sure he is 6'6" (though listed at 6'8" ... I have no idea how he can defend Goldin or Wolf. Which means Dortch, even skinny, may have to really step up and defend Wolf, at least (using his height and length to defend against the stretch PF Wolf. If coming off the bench, Acuff needs to be solid, at least and Davis needs to be very strong defensively (he has been so in some games, not as much in other games).
The thing is ... Michigan is REALLY REALLY good offensively, so this is a real challenge. They shoot 50% FG, 37% 3-point and are a strong rebounding team. They take 44% of their FG's from 3-point range - BUT ... have a strong offensive post player in Goldin and at times Wolf. They have SEVEN (7) players who take 50% or more of their FG's from 3: Donaldson (well, just under 50% at 49% of his FG's from 3), Burnett (65% of FG tries from 3), Tschetter - a 6'9" reserve getting 15 mpg (55% of FG's from 3), Walters - a 6'10" reserve getting 13 mpg (82% of FG from 3), Cason - a 6'3" reserve - 11 mpg (55% of FG from 3), Ruben Jones - a 6'5" reserve getting 20 mpg (68% of FG from 3) and Pippen - 6'3" reserve getting just 7 mpg (70% of his 30 FG tries from 3).
On the bright side, while UM is relatively deep, they have 7 players averaging 20 mpg or more, and the remaining 4 reserves play between 7 and 15 mpg - so not consistent. More importantly, UM CAN be turnover prone - averaging almost 15 turnovers per game (the BTN earlier today pointed out UM had the most turnovers/game of any Big Ten team - and the gap between them and the 2nd worst team in the Big 10 was bigger than the gap between the 2nd worst team and the 18th worst team. So ... RU probably HAS ot force UM into turnovers to have a chance. ... or hope from a really poor 3-point FG% performance from UM. That CAN happen, though not often. UM shot 30% from 3 vs Wake Forest, and lost ... 27% vs Tarleton St (and still won going away - but Tarleton St) ... 29% vs Virginia Tech - but won by 12 ... 24% vs Wisconsin - but win by 3 ... 20% vs Iowa - and lost (but only by 2) ... 14% vs Oklahoma - and lost, but only by 1 ... 26% vs NW - and won in OT ... 21% vs Purdue and got killed ... they lost at Minny despite shooting 11-22, 50%, from 3 - not sure how they lost that game (UM had a better FG%, better 3-pt FG%, many more FT and out-rebounded Minny - the difference was 6 Minny turnovers to UM's 13 - not even a lot of UM TO's).
Offense:
Well ... pretty simple to "model", not so simple to execute:
1) Need Bailey to be very good (not necessarily other-worldly as he was in 2 of the last 3 games - but very good like in 5 of the last 6 games ... He has a 4-15 ish game, I think it would be very tough for RU to win or even keep it close ... presuming Harper is out.
2) Take care of the ball - really limit the turnovers to 10 or fewer - and more importantly, have at least a +5 turnover margin related to UM.
3) Hold their own on the boards (do not have to WIN the rebounding battle, but need to be at least adequate.
4) At least TWO other players step up offensively (3 would be better), hopefully 1 of those scoring 13-15 points, and another 1-2 players scoring 8-12 points.
5) ADDED: Have the RU home crowd be the 6th man.
