Do stars matter?
In the first round of the NFL draft, maybe:
https://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1762474
In the first round of the NFL draft, maybe:
https://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1762474
Startard Debate: NFL First Round Debate
- Thread starter RCTrooper
- Start date
I wonder if anyone has ever broken it down by position? Like DT's who are 4 or 5 stars are more likely to be high draft picks and stars in college but a high number of 2 star corners beat the odds and get drafted high.
I was looking at this a while back. I looked at a few years and there was some variation by position. The thing that jumped out was that QB had the lowest correlation. Just look at the top 30 quarterbacks from Nova's year. I need to get back to that study and post results when I get the chance.
Does Conference matter? B1G barely represented while Pac 12 and ACC were dominant. The whole premise is nonsense. Stars are awarded to high school kids playing a school boy game against a majority of other kids who won't ever play again. The pro's do consider college performance but more so,skill sets and personal traits, that historically lead to success professionally. They don't always get it right either. The wise person would still favor a college roster loaded with 4 and 5 star rated recruits, rather than dispute the obvious.
I love how these look backs use a buckshot approach to prove the system.
Since the draft includes players who left early (class of 2012 - 353 total 4&5 stars), true seniors (2011 - 331 total) and redshirts (2010 - 422 total) that's 1,106 4&5 stars who were draft eligible (minus the 200 or so who were previously drafted). Of these 1,106 players, 16 were part of the 32 drafted in the first round. A 1.44% probability. Last year there were 18 of 32, a 1.66% probability.
Looking at the sheer number of 4 stars being thrown out shows being a 4 star recruit means nothing when it comes to the first round draft, and rivals will give a 4th star to anyone playing the high school combine game. If they were honest, they would write an article about their entire line up of 4 stars from say 2009, and disclose how many were drafted, signed as UFA, never showed up to campus, transferred after redshirting, etc.
Since the draft includes players who left early (class of 2012 - 353 total 4&5 stars), true seniors (2011 - 331 total) and redshirts (2010 - 422 total) that's 1,106 4&5 stars who were draft eligible (minus the 200 or so who were previously drafted). Of these 1,106 players, 16 were part of the 32 drafted in the first round. A 1.44% probability. Last year there were 18 of 32, a 1.66% probability.
Looking at the sheer number of 4 stars being thrown out shows being a 4 star recruit means nothing when it comes to the first round draft, and rivals will give a 4th star to anyone playing the high school combine game. If they were honest, they would write an article about their entire line up of 4 stars from say 2009, and disclose how many were drafted, signed as UFA, never showed up to campus, transferred after redshirting, etc.
