THE SEASON
I think it is tough to conclude that it was anything but an unmitigated disaster. 1 - 11 is 1 - 11...there are no real ways to sugarcoat it. It does happen in sports, particularly college football, where teams lose confidence in themselves, get discouraged, try and do too much or check out, and get blasted as we saw with the Ohio State - Maryland stretch. I don't think we are actually that bad...but we remain closer to a 1 - 11 team than a 6 - 6 team and that remains a big problem. I should note, I didn't/couldn't watch the Buffalo/Indiana/Illinois/Maryland/Northwestern games (too discouraged and had other things I needed to do), so any perspectives exclude actual observations of those games.
QB: Another season where we didn't get enough out of the QB position. QB play wasn't good enough this season and I really don't think it mattered much whether Art or Gio was in charge...this offense would have struggled to score points regardless.
I think with Gio we would have gotten more first downs and held onto the ball longer due to his propensity to scramble, but we would be fairly one-dimensional and limited in what we could do. Long drives would be the only real way with Gio and that requires few mistakes and lots of 3-5 yard positive plays and we saw both the strengths and limitations of Gio against Michigan State.
I know Art is now a controversial topic around here, and he clearly struggled to see the field, leading to way too many turnovers. I suspect he can get better over time, but vision/feel in the pocket seems pretty instinctual to me and a bit of 'either you have it or don't'. His arm strength is pretty obvious, but if the coaches don't trust him to use the whole field and limit the playbook, then you are neutering his biggest strength (while protecting him against his biggest weakness). I have no idea what he looks like next year, but I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that he will not get better...he seems like a great kid and a hard worker and I hate that we anoint a new freshman the savior every year only to dump them to the curb after struggling. I think we should give Art another season to demonstrate wehat he could do.
Overall, though, we need another credible QB on the roster next year and a grad transfer would be ideal to let Art develop at an appropriate pace. After watching the Michigan State game, I actually thought the decision to go with Art was the right one...but the failure to spell him with Gio at times was maddening. The QB position killed us this year and if we can fix that, we can fix a lot of the offense.
RB: Love Pacheco. Runs (and tackles after throwing an interception) like an absolute madman and needs to be our featured back. Love the suggestion someone made of moving Blackshear to a slot receiver and featuring Isaiah in the backfield. We need these two on the field at the same time as they are the best weapons we have. This position looks and feels pretty solid.
WR: Probably the most disappointing position group for me. No one seemed to take a step forward, drops were a major problem, and no one seemed open. I am not a great enough football mind to know how much blame goes to the players vs. coaches, but drops fall on the players while getting open may be scheme or may be players. Either way, productivity was way too low and I'm not sure how this gets better next year absent moving Blackshear to the slot, bringing in a grad transfer, and perhaps different playcalling.
OL: Probably a bit beyond my skill-set to assess, but they seemed competent run blockers the last few weeks. Pass protection seemed a problem, but things like not moving the pocket and a QB that doesn't move around, make things more difficult. Not the main source of our problems this year. With most of the group back, I would expect they will be solid next year (not good, but good enough not to be a problem against most of our schedule).
DL: Seemed adequate to me...particularly after Ash took over. Depth remains a major issue and I'm not sure what we do if we have an injury or two amongst the starters next year. Will need young guys to step up. Noticed Bordner playing abit on Saturday...seemes like it is important that he and Duggan (and Matt Thomas) take a step forward next season. Tverdov, Lumor, and Mason/Kromree (if healthy) will hopefully be able to get some pressure on the QB. Guessing we wil view this as an area that remains a weakness next season, but I'm not expecting a major drop-off.
LB: Excited to see Fogg in a full-time role next season. Can see he is a step up in talent in terms of how he closes and hits the ball carrier. Seems like Fogg, Maddox-Williams, Fatukasi, and Battle are the four main contributors...beyond that, seems like we will be very dependent on Freshman or Anderson (MD transfer) stepping in. Paper thin and only Fogg seems to have star potential, but I loved Fatukasi's high school tape and the way he plays, so hopefully he can step up and make an impact. Does Zihir Lacewell move to LB?
DB: Lose a lot with Wharton and Hampton leaving (Austin too, but he wasn't really here this year anyway). Not sure what we have with Tre Avery, but Hayes and Young will be back...so the DB group should be pretty good (assuming Hayes at DB). It seems like we have numbers in the defensive backfield beyond those guys (Kessawn Abraham, Jarret Paul, Izien, and Barrow)...just not sure how the pieces go together. Ash can coach up this group, so I'm probably least concerned about the DBs of all the defensive groups.
Special Teams: Should be good next year with Korsak and Davidowicz returning. At least Ash has gotten this group right.
THE COACHING STAFF
Ash: I don't think that he has demonstrated that he can successfully run a program (or at least this program) successfully. I don't doubt that he works hard and I respect that he has been flexible in his approach in many ways (hands off offensively, change things that don't work, looking at JUCOs, grad transfers, taking over the defense), but I think the cake is baked here. They say you only get one chance to make a first impression and when coaching at Rutgers, that first impression has to be almost perfect such that you get momentum recruiting well, then the team plays well and with energy, which generates excitement and more momentum, allowing continued good recruiting, improving the talent on the roster, and eventually you break through. On the field results and a team that plays careful have sucked the energy from the program and he doesn't have nearly the charisma to change the perception of the program. He better hope that the changes he has tried to make in the program start to pay off and show up on the field.
I do think that he has improved the infrastructure of the program and despite the credit card stuff, it doesn't seem like he tolerates bad behavior and looks the other way. That does matter and is a credit to him, but ultimately it doesn't matter if it doesn't lead to wins and an exciting team to follow. He will have to do an amazing coaching job this upcoming season to save his job and salvage this program. I do think he coached slightly more aggressively this year and took more chances, which is good, but the season was basically over after three weeks, so he had nothing to lose. Is he evolving or just desperate?
While I hope he succeeds in a big way here, I just don't see it and hope that next year is his last. I think his ceiling is very low (six wins) and we saw the floor this year.
What Coaches Need to Go?
The answer is obviously Niemann. The defense played with the same energy and enthusiasm as their defensive coordinator. Maybe I'd hire him as my tax accountant, but as defensive coordinator? Time to move on.
The rest I'm ambivalent about. I have no clue if Neinas or Okruch or Brown or Erb are good or not. I was really disappointed in the productivity of the WRs this year. I assumed Jafar Williams was a part of the problem last year, yet they were as unproductive with Erb. Is it coaching or talent? Erb seemed like a good hire, and I was excited to see him move to the WRs, but obviously it wasn't a success.
I know people want Blazek gone, but it sort of feels like we all liked him and built him up to be a great coach and since the OL was up and down, we are jilted lovers and want him gone. If Iowa wanted his as their OL coach, he can't be that bad, and he is one coach that recruits seem to connect with. Personally, I'd be fine if he stayed.
On McNulty
I'm looking forward to having some consistency with the offensive coordinator. I get why he liked Art and think it was actually the right decision for the offense he wanted to run. As I said earlier, when he changed the offense to protect Art, he should have put Gio in as he would be more effective in an offense that didn't attack downfield. That said, I liked some of the creativity and think the offense will be better served having consistency and that he wasn't the total problem with the offense. Like Ash, if he doesn't get the job done next year, we lose a bunch of games, and he will go. I'd rather roll the dice with McNulty than start all over once again.
RECRUITING
Nowhere near good enough to compete with the teams we play. We need 5-7 impact guys each year to really compete in this league (Pacheco/Young/Fogg, etc). We haven't had enough of them and it isn't obvious where they are coming from. Attacking the JUCO/Grad Transfer ranks is a sign of desperation (particularly JUCOs), but we don't have a choice. We need kids that can come in and play on Day One.
WHERE DOES THE PROGRAM GO FROM HERE?
Unfortunately the energy level is as low as I've seen (probably paid attention since the late-90s..closer attention since 2003 or 2004). Season ticket sales are down, apathy is high, and kyk is a Huskers fan. One way or another, 2019 is going to be the trough year. If we get better (not 3-9 better, but actually look like we are turning things around), enthusiasm will pick up (we are all discouraged but want to enjoy football saturdays). If we are a disaster, then Ash goes and we get a new coach. Glen Mason said once 'You can either sell a fan base wins or hope'. Right now we have neither...after 2019, we will have one or the other (my money would be on hope more than wins).
CONCLUSION
Bad year. Bad outlook for 2019.
I think it is tough to conclude that it was anything but an unmitigated disaster. 1 - 11 is 1 - 11...there are no real ways to sugarcoat it. It does happen in sports, particularly college football, where teams lose confidence in themselves, get discouraged, try and do too much or check out, and get blasted as we saw with the Ohio State - Maryland stretch. I don't think we are actually that bad...but we remain closer to a 1 - 11 team than a 6 - 6 team and that remains a big problem. I should note, I didn't/couldn't watch the Buffalo/Indiana/Illinois/Maryland/Northwestern games (too discouraged and had other things I needed to do), so any perspectives exclude actual observations of those games.
QB: Another season where we didn't get enough out of the QB position. QB play wasn't good enough this season and I really don't think it mattered much whether Art or Gio was in charge...this offense would have struggled to score points regardless.
I think with Gio we would have gotten more first downs and held onto the ball longer due to his propensity to scramble, but we would be fairly one-dimensional and limited in what we could do. Long drives would be the only real way with Gio and that requires few mistakes and lots of 3-5 yard positive plays and we saw both the strengths and limitations of Gio against Michigan State.
I know Art is now a controversial topic around here, and he clearly struggled to see the field, leading to way too many turnovers. I suspect he can get better over time, but vision/feel in the pocket seems pretty instinctual to me and a bit of 'either you have it or don't'. His arm strength is pretty obvious, but if the coaches don't trust him to use the whole field and limit the playbook, then you are neutering his biggest strength (while protecting him against his biggest weakness). I have no idea what he looks like next year, but I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that he will not get better...he seems like a great kid and a hard worker and I hate that we anoint a new freshman the savior every year only to dump them to the curb after struggling. I think we should give Art another season to demonstrate wehat he could do.
Overall, though, we need another credible QB on the roster next year and a grad transfer would be ideal to let Art develop at an appropriate pace. After watching the Michigan State game, I actually thought the decision to go with Art was the right one...but the failure to spell him with Gio at times was maddening. The QB position killed us this year and if we can fix that, we can fix a lot of the offense.
RB: Love Pacheco. Runs (and tackles after throwing an interception) like an absolute madman and needs to be our featured back. Love the suggestion someone made of moving Blackshear to a slot receiver and featuring Isaiah in the backfield. We need these two on the field at the same time as they are the best weapons we have. This position looks and feels pretty solid.
WR: Probably the most disappointing position group for me. No one seemed to take a step forward, drops were a major problem, and no one seemed open. I am not a great enough football mind to know how much blame goes to the players vs. coaches, but drops fall on the players while getting open may be scheme or may be players. Either way, productivity was way too low and I'm not sure how this gets better next year absent moving Blackshear to the slot, bringing in a grad transfer, and perhaps different playcalling.
OL: Probably a bit beyond my skill-set to assess, but they seemed competent run blockers the last few weeks. Pass protection seemed a problem, but things like not moving the pocket and a QB that doesn't move around, make things more difficult. Not the main source of our problems this year. With most of the group back, I would expect they will be solid next year (not good, but good enough not to be a problem against most of our schedule).
DL: Seemed adequate to me...particularly after Ash took over. Depth remains a major issue and I'm not sure what we do if we have an injury or two amongst the starters next year. Will need young guys to step up. Noticed Bordner playing abit on Saturday...seemes like it is important that he and Duggan (and Matt Thomas) take a step forward next season. Tverdov, Lumor, and Mason/Kromree (if healthy) will hopefully be able to get some pressure on the QB. Guessing we wil view this as an area that remains a weakness next season, but I'm not expecting a major drop-off.
LB: Excited to see Fogg in a full-time role next season. Can see he is a step up in talent in terms of how he closes and hits the ball carrier. Seems like Fogg, Maddox-Williams, Fatukasi, and Battle are the four main contributors...beyond that, seems like we will be very dependent on Freshman or Anderson (MD transfer) stepping in. Paper thin and only Fogg seems to have star potential, but I loved Fatukasi's high school tape and the way he plays, so hopefully he can step up and make an impact. Does Zihir Lacewell move to LB?
DB: Lose a lot with Wharton and Hampton leaving (Austin too, but he wasn't really here this year anyway). Not sure what we have with Tre Avery, but Hayes and Young will be back...so the DB group should be pretty good (assuming Hayes at DB). It seems like we have numbers in the defensive backfield beyond those guys (Kessawn Abraham, Jarret Paul, Izien, and Barrow)...just not sure how the pieces go together. Ash can coach up this group, so I'm probably least concerned about the DBs of all the defensive groups.
Special Teams: Should be good next year with Korsak and Davidowicz returning. At least Ash has gotten this group right.
THE COACHING STAFF
Ash: I don't think that he has demonstrated that he can successfully run a program (or at least this program) successfully. I don't doubt that he works hard and I respect that he has been flexible in his approach in many ways (hands off offensively, change things that don't work, looking at JUCOs, grad transfers, taking over the defense), but I think the cake is baked here. They say you only get one chance to make a first impression and when coaching at Rutgers, that first impression has to be almost perfect such that you get momentum recruiting well, then the team plays well and with energy, which generates excitement and more momentum, allowing continued good recruiting, improving the talent on the roster, and eventually you break through. On the field results and a team that plays careful have sucked the energy from the program and he doesn't have nearly the charisma to change the perception of the program. He better hope that the changes he has tried to make in the program start to pay off and show up on the field.
I do think that he has improved the infrastructure of the program and despite the credit card stuff, it doesn't seem like he tolerates bad behavior and looks the other way. That does matter and is a credit to him, but ultimately it doesn't matter if it doesn't lead to wins and an exciting team to follow. He will have to do an amazing coaching job this upcoming season to save his job and salvage this program. I do think he coached slightly more aggressively this year and took more chances, which is good, but the season was basically over after three weeks, so he had nothing to lose. Is he evolving or just desperate?
While I hope he succeeds in a big way here, I just don't see it and hope that next year is his last. I think his ceiling is very low (six wins) and we saw the floor this year.
What Coaches Need to Go?
The answer is obviously Niemann. The defense played with the same energy and enthusiasm as their defensive coordinator. Maybe I'd hire him as my tax accountant, but as defensive coordinator? Time to move on.
The rest I'm ambivalent about. I have no clue if Neinas or Okruch or Brown or Erb are good or not. I was really disappointed in the productivity of the WRs this year. I assumed Jafar Williams was a part of the problem last year, yet they were as unproductive with Erb. Is it coaching or talent? Erb seemed like a good hire, and I was excited to see him move to the WRs, but obviously it wasn't a success.
I know people want Blazek gone, but it sort of feels like we all liked him and built him up to be a great coach and since the OL was up and down, we are jilted lovers and want him gone. If Iowa wanted his as their OL coach, he can't be that bad, and he is one coach that recruits seem to connect with. Personally, I'd be fine if he stayed.
On McNulty
I'm looking forward to having some consistency with the offensive coordinator. I get why he liked Art and think it was actually the right decision for the offense he wanted to run. As I said earlier, when he changed the offense to protect Art, he should have put Gio in as he would be more effective in an offense that didn't attack downfield. That said, I liked some of the creativity and think the offense will be better served having consistency and that he wasn't the total problem with the offense. Like Ash, if he doesn't get the job done next year, we lose a bunch of games, and he will go. I'd rather roll the dice with McNulty than start all over once again.
RECRUITING
Nowhere near good enough to compete with the teams we play. We need 5-7 impact guys each year to really compete in this league (Pacheco/Young/Fogg, etc). We haven't had enough of them and it isn't obvious where they are coming from. Attacking the JUCO/Grad Transfer ranks is a sign of desperation (particularly JUCOs), but we don't have a choice. We need kids that can come in and play on Day One.
WHERE DOES THE PROGRAM GO FROM HERE?
Unfortunately the energy level is as low as I've seen (probably paid attention since the late-90s..closer attention since 2003 or 2004). Season ticket sales are down, apathy is high, and kyk is a Huskers fan. One way or another, 2019 is going to be the trough year. If we get better (not 3-9 better, but actually look like we are turning things around), enthusiasm will pick up (we are all discouraged but want to enjoy football saturdays). If we are a disaster, then Ash goes and we get a new coach. Glen Mason said once 'You can either sell a fan base wins or hope'. Right now we have neither...after 2019, we will have one or the other (my money would be on hope more than wins).
CONCLUSION
Bad year. Bad outlook for 2019.
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