THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-ILLINOIS PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Corey had better put up some #'s (points, assists, rebounds / cut down on TO's).
Like to see him go off for 30+ / lead us to a "W".
RU 68
Ill. 63
MO
Like to see him go off for 30+ / lead us to a "W".
RU 68
Ill. 63
MO
Fans can adopt something I picked up a long time ago and it ties back to recruiting and talent.....That means that in 60% of your games (or 80% if you have more skilled depth and more talent), the team is more apt to play to their potential, which is where most fans expect their performance to be.
In the other 20% of the games (or 10%), the team outperforms their typical performance and the other 20%, (or 10%) the team actually plays worse than their norm and has an off night on both ends....it's why college basketball is to me, the best sport and makes March Madness special, because a team can play 20-22 normal games and have a night of nights in either direction in the tournament (good or bad).
Here's how I look at RU so far this season....they've played 2 of their 10 B1G games above their talent or ability level.
@ Michigan State
Home to Iowa
RU played 6 games at their talent level where most fans expect the level of intensity defensively and play on the glass and to find some open shots OR their normal performance just isn't going to win most nights until the talent level increases in recruiting.
@ Minnesota
Michigan State at home
@ Purdue
Wisconsin at home (made some timely shots)
@ Michigan
Nebraska at home (missed some timely shots)
Then they have played 2 clunkers (both off tough defeats ironically) (Ohio State at home and at Penn State)....
My guess is they have 2 more clunkers in them the remaining 9 or 10 games (dependent on the B1G tournament), 2 games where they play above their talent level and 4-5 "normal" performances.
The 2 games against Illinois require RU to be at their normal selves OR playing over their talent level to win either game. If both teams play their normal status, Illinois will tomorrow and RU will likely win the finale at the RAC.
Can Illinois put together back to back very good 40 minute performances together and string 2 B1G wins in a row??? Or can RU play their standard defense, not get 1-16 from Sanders and Baker and play hard nosed defense that they typically show most nights??
Illinois has a talent advantage and has much more loaded up in 2018 recruiting than RU has, so please don't be fooled into thinking that an RU win here, signals some sort of "we've gotten past Illinois in the standings for good".....It will take much more than a good performance tomorrow and in the home finale to keep up with Brad Underwood and Antigua in recruiting, two of the major sharks, in picking up players....Pike, Brandin Knight etc. will have their work cut out for them in the next 2 off seasons in recruiting to try and keep up with Illinois.
On game days however, I'm pretty confident RU's clunkers the rest of the way are home for Purdue (just a bad matchup) and likely at Ohio State (another bad matchup).....I think the remaining games fit where RU can feel comfortable that the games won't get too out of hand.
RU will win because I don't see another 1-16 from the field from the guards and 7 straight misses from 3 from Thiam and Illinois doesn't take care of the ball like a Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State most nights....The Illini haven't shown they do the little things well enough, where RU (despite the wide gap in talent), tends to do the little things well.
RU figures out a way to stop the tide against them and squeezes a road win out as Illinois comes back down to earth and comes in too overconfident after a win against arch rival Indiana and watching tape of RU against Penn State....how you have a let down (if you are Illinois) when you are 1-8 in conference??? When your opponent coming in only scoring 43 points in the game before....
RU 66, Illini 62......
In the other 20% of the games (or 10%), the team outperforms their typical performance and the other 20%, (or 10%) the team actually plays worse than their norm and has an off night on both ends....it's why college basketball is to me, the best sport and makes March Madness special, because a team can play 20-22 normal games and have a night of nights in either direction in the tournament (good or bad).
Here's how I look at RU so far this season....they've played 2 of their 10 B1G games above their talent or ability level.
@ Michigan State
Home to Iowa
RU played 6 games at their talent level where most fans expect the level of intensity defensively and play on the glass and to find some open shots OR their normal performance just isn't going to win most nights until the talent level increases in recruiting.
@ Minnesota
Michigan State at home
@ Purdue
Wisconsin at home (made some timely shots)
@ Michigan
Nebraska at home (missed some timely shots)
Then they have played 2 clunkers (both off tough defeats ironically) (Ohio State at home and at Penn State)....
My guess is they have 2 more clunkers in them the remaining 9 or 10 games (dependent on the B1G tournament), 2 games where they play above their talent level and 4-5 "normal" performances.
The 2 games against Illinois require RU to be at their normal selves OR playing over their talent level to win either game. If both teams play their normal status, Illinois will tomorrow and RU will likely win the finale at the RAC.
Can Illinois put together back to back very good 40 minute performances together and string 2 B1G wins in a row??? Or can RU play their standard defense, not get 1-16 from Sanders and Baker and play hard nosed defense that they typically show most nights??
Illinois has a talent advantage and has much more loaded up in 2018 recruiting than RU has, so please don't be fooled into thinking that an RU win here, signals some sort of "we've gotten past Illinois in the standings for good".....It will take much more than a good performance tomorrow and in the home finale to keep up with Brad Underwood and Antigua in recruiting, two of the major sharks, in picking up players....Pike, Brandin Knight etc. will have their work cut out for them in the next 2 off seasons in recruiting to try and keep up with Illinois.
On game days however, I'm pretty confident RU's clunkers the rest of the way are home for Purdue (just a bad matchup) and likely at Ohio State (another bad matchup).....I think the remaining games fit where RU can feel comfortable that the games won't get too out of hand.
RU will win because I don't see another 1-16 from the field from the guards and 7 straight misses from 3 from Thiam and Illinois doesn't take care of the ball like a Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan State most nights....The Illini haven't shown they do the little things well enough, where RU (despite the wide gap in talent), tends to do the little things well.
RU figures out a way to stop the tide against them and squeezes a road win out as Illinois comes back down to earth and comes in too overconfident after a win against arch rival Indiana and watching tape of RU against Penn State....how you have a let down (if you are Illinois) when you are 1-8 in conference??? When your opponent coming in only scoring 43 points in the game before....
RU 66, Illini 62......
I have a feeling we'll split the season series against Illinois regardless of who wins this game.
I am losing confidence but I will go out on a limb once more
I hope the guys are ticked
I have no doubt they feel worse than we do
Rutgers 65
Illinois 61
I hope the guys are ticked
I have no doubt they feel worse than we do
Rutgers 65
Illinois 61
RU needs to eventually win a road game ... 1-8 opponent is their best shot ... this is it bitches!!!!!!
RU 68
ILL 60
ILL is sloppy and doesn't shoot at a high %. These are the teams we can compete with.
ILL 60
ILL is sloppy and doesn't shoot at a high %. These are the teams we can compete with.
Illinois beats teams by outscoring them, not by stopping them. They give up a 2nd-worst in the B1G 80.1 ppg in conference. The only team who plays worse defense overall in the conference is Iowa, who we torched (granted on a super hot shooting night for us, but also because Iowa's D is pretty bad).
They don't have a very good team FG%, but shoot their FTs well. Their FG% defense in conference is worst in the B1G (.511). They don't shoot 3's well as a team (.268 in conference), but they do defend them well (.333) - it seems like they get beaten inside mostly.
They're a good OReb team, but the worst DReb team in conference play.
Might be a good opportunity for Freeman to clean up the glass for putbacks, and possibly for Doorson, too. Statistically, their defense looks tailor made for Mike Williams, unfortunately. Since it seems like they pressure the 3 point line, hopefully Thiam can use the pump fake to get closer to the basket or get open looks.
I think the offense gets unstuck this game against a weaker defense, and we limit their offense a bit - but I still don't know if we come away with a win. I'd like to say we win 70-68, but my gut is telling me we fall 70-66.
They don't have a very good team FG%, but shoot their FTs well. Their FG% defense in conference is worst in the B1G (.511). They don't shoot 3's well as a team (.268 in conference), but they do defend them well (.333) - it seems like they get beaten inside mostly.
They're a good OReb team, but the worst DReb team in conference play.
Might be a good opportunity for Freeman to clean up the glass for putbacks, and possibly for Doorson, too. Statistically, their defense looks tailor made for Mike Williams, unfortunately. Since it seems like they pressure the 3 point line, hopefully Thiam can use the pump fake to get closer to the basket or get open looks.
I think the offense gets unstuck this game against a weaker defense, and we limit their offense a bit - but I still don't know if we come away with a win. I'd like to say we win 70-68, but my gut is telling me we fall 70-66.
Ok, putting the reverse curse on this team.
Confidence is such a big part of this game. Rutgers is coming off one of its worst halves of the season against Penn State. Illinois is coming off a good, solid W against Indiana and is well rested, having not played since last Wednesday. Illinois will win this game by 6 in a close game.
Why does it seem like Rutgers is playing each opponent at the worst possible time? Earlier in the season, Rutgers play Minnesota on the road and Minnesota is stacked and confident. Look at them now. Penn State hits a miracle shot to beat Ohio State on the road and of course, Rutgers is its next opponent. Same goes for the Illinois game here with them coming off a home victory and confident with nothing to lose.
That being said, Rutgers will beat Illinois the last game of the season at the RAC.
Confidence is such a big part of this game. Rutgers is coming off one of its worst halves of the season against Penn State. Illinois is coming off a good, solid W against Indiana and is well rested, having not played since last Wednesday. Illinois will win this game by 6 in a close game.
Why does it seem like Rutgers is playing each opponent at the worst possible time? Earlier in the season, Rutgers play Minnesota on the road and Minnesota is stacked and confident. Look at them now. Penn State hits a miracle shot to beat Ohio State on the road and of course, Rutgers is its next opponent. Same goes for the Illinois game here with them coming off a home victory and confident with nothing to lose.
That being said, Rutgers will beat Illinois the last game of the season at the RAC.
For Rutgers to score 68 points Sanders,Baker and Freeman would need to score at least 45 points and have the rest of the team score 23 points.Not likely to happen in either case unless Thiam scores in high double figures.
Hoping with they playing well , the rest of team will be energized while the Illi tries to keep those 3 in check.
Throw in Omoruyi scoring along with Thiam and there might be a chance.
But remember: I usually take an overly optimistic approach to the games.
Seems like 2 evenly matched teams, like it would be a dead heat on a neutral court.
RU defense most often throws cold water on the opposition and knocks them off kilter.
But RU rarely capitalizes offensively. So this game will be played in the 20s for the first half, with RU squeaking out a win at the end.
RU 59-58.
RU defense most often throws cold water on the opposition and knocks them off kilter.
But RU rarely capitalizes offensively. So this game will be played in the 20s for the first half, with RU squeaking out a win at the end.
RU 59-58.
So that's two in a row for you now. Again, stop scolding other people for unreasonable expectations on this board, when you can't even control yourself.
