THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-ILLINOIS PREDICTION THREAD
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
This is probably the toughest game to win among the next 1/2 dozen on our schedule. As far as I'm concerned, its a freebie. Win and we're in the top 25 next week. Lose and it still doesn't derail a 19 win/NCAA bubble type finish.
Illinois after a great win at Wiscy, quick turn around and noon start, we could sneak one...
RU 69
Illini 65
RU 69
Illini 65
Wisconsin like Purdue, Illinois's last 2 opponents, is overrated defensively. Yes, both teams don't give up a lot of points but that's more slow pace than actually defense. Wisc. 60.9 Purdue 59.1 Rutgers 59.7
Defense
Wisc. FG 41.4% 137th 2pt. 44.6% 64th 3pt FG 34.7% *262nd*
Purdue FG 39.1% 44th 2pt 46.6% *121st* 3pt 28.2 28th
Rutgers FG 37.3% 17th 2pt 41.3% 13th 3pt 30.6% 83rd
Offense(catching up to our defense in efficiency)
Rutgers FG 47.2 41st 2pt 54.8 38th 73.6
Purdue FG 41.5 291st 2pt 46.6 290th 68.2
Wisc. FG 43.6 188th 2pt 51.6 124th 68.5
Our interior defense is becoming elite, teams are forced to shoot more 3s (517 2s to 346 3s) and now our 3pt. FG D is becoming better by the game, last 5 games(29.6%, 28%, 25%, 25.8%, 23.1%). You see how much better this team plays offensively in the paint too, after that 1-15 (0-4 from 3) start, they shot 23-43 53.5% (2-6 on 3s, 21-37 56.8% on 2s), against Penn St. 2pt D 42%, 17th. The next step in this team's evolution is shooting the 3 better. They figure that out, they can become a top 10 team this year, the numbers speak to that.
With that said...
Rutgers 65
Illinois 58
Defense
Wisc. FG 41.4% 137th 2pt. 44.6% 64th 3pt FG 34.7% *262nd*
Purdue FG 39.1% 44th 2pt 46.6% *121st* 3pt 28.2 28th
Rutgers FG 37.3% 17th 2pt 41.3% 13th 3pt 30.6% 83rd
Offense(catching up to our defense in efficiency)
Rutgers FG 47.2 41st 2pt 54.8 38th 73.6
Purdue FG 41.5 291st 2pt 46.6 290th 68.2
Wisc. FG 43.6 188th 2pt 51.6 124th 68.5
Our interior defense is becoming elite, teams are forced to shoot more 3s (517 2s to 346 3s) and now our 3pt. FG D is becoming better by the game, last 5 games(29.6%, 28%, 25%, 25.8%, 23.1%). You see how much better this team plays offensively in the paint too, after that 1-15 (0-4 from 3) start, they shot 23-43 53.5% (2-6 on 3s, 21-37 56.8% on 2s), against Penn St. 2pt D 42%, 17th. The next step in this team's evolution is shooting the 3 better. They figure that out, they can become a top 10 team this year, the numbers speak to that.
With that said...
Rutgers 65
Illinois 58
Does anyone know what type of atmosphere at 11AM when kids arent in school there will be? I am guessing this will help us a bunch.
Still think we are due for a B game with intensity and 50/50 ness.
Illinois 71
Rutgers 59
Plus like said above....why mess with a streak. They keep outperforming my expectations.
Still think we are due for a B game with intensity and 50/50 ness.
Illinois 71
Rutgers 59
Plus like said above....why mess with a streak. They keep outperforming my expectations.
What we're really due for is a team to hit a bunch of threes on us. Last time someone hit 30+% was Wisconsin and the only time we allowed 40%+ was St. Bonaventure.
I know some might blast me for this but I will sign on for 2-1 in the next 3 right now..gimme the pen. Win or lose vs Illiniois, one of those games either Indiana or Minny we are going to struggle in.
Give me the pen NOW!!!!!
Bart loves us (and SHU)
With that said..........
at Illinois 43%
Indiana 75%
Minnesota 66%
1.84 expected wins.......give me the pen!
One thing to shoot for is no 0-2 weeks the rest of the way. We do that and we're in good shape.
Our best shot at a 2-0 week is this week (since we already have a game in hand) and next week (both games at home).
The Illinois game is, to some extent, gravy. But if we lose to Illinois and lose to Indiana then Minnesota becomes SUPER important.
if we get to 7-3 which is entirely plausible..win all the RAC games, loss to Illinois, RU is really in a drivers seat position......I would immediately sign on for this and take losses to Illinois and Iowa...actually Id rather beat Iowa on the road to give us a quality road win and lose to Purdue at home.
8-2 which is a longshot but means winning all games at the RAC and then beating Iowa or Illinois...in this case, NCAA would appear likely barring an awful collapse
6-4 means that pressure to go 4-6 which means some big wins down the stretch would be needed but its not a bad spot to be in
5-5 and its pretty tough slog
I know everyone is getting hyped up, me too at times but if you look closely at the scenerios given how tough the schedule is at the end, RU needs to finish up strong under some pressure. Can we beat Michigan, Purdue and Maryland all at home? At some point, RU will throw in a turkey type game at home. Can we beat Michigan at MSG or win at Wisconsin. There are so many toss up games right now....I mean seriously. Northwestern and Nebby at home look to be the sure wins but anything can happen in those other games and we will be on the road alot.
8-2 which is a longshot but means winning all games at the RAC and then beating Iowa or Illinois...in this case, NCAA would appear likely barring an awful collapse
6-4 means that pressure to go 4-6 which means some big wins down the stretch would be needed but its not a bad spot to be in
5-5 and its pretty tough slog
I know everyone is getting hyped up, me too at times but if you look closely at the scenerios given how tough the schedule is at the end, RU needs to finish up strong under some pressure. Can we beat Michigan, Purdue and Maryland all at home? At some point, RU will throw in a turkey type game at home. Can we beat Michigan at MSG or win at Wisconsin. There are so many toss up games right now....I mean seriously. Northwestern and Nebby at home look to be the sure wins but anything can happen in those other games and we will be on the road alot.
the last 7 game stretch is as brutal as you are going to get
at Ohio State
Illinois
Michigan
at Wisconsin
at Penn State
Maryland
at Purdue.
all winnable games but the road games lean toward losses and the home games are tough. Still have not beat Maryland or Michigan yet in league play. I think the next few games will give us an idea if we can sustain our level of play on the road vs quality teams and the Baker injury is going to hurt us for sure at some point.
at Ohio State
Illinois
Michigan
at Wisconsin
at Penn State
Maryland
at Purdue.
all winnable games but the road games lean toward losses and the home games are tough. Still have not beat Maryland or Michigan yet in league play. I think the next few games will give us an idea if we can sustain our level of play on the road vs quality teams and the Baker injury is going to hurt us for sure at some point.
To be fair if you told me we'd shoot 46% on twos and 20% on threes and only rebound 28% of our misses against Penn State I would've put it down for a loss. If we do that eight more times at home we're headed to the NIT.
yup and gimme the pen for 4-2 over next 6 to get to 7-3...I will allow for a home loss somewhere if we win one of the two road games which actually would be more beneficial to the resume.
Between Wisconsin and Purdue i think 1 of those team have a good shot of playing out the string. Does look very daunting though.....like you want to be 8-5+ going in to that.
RU has an extra day to prepare, but Ill is home.
But the guys believe they're on a mission and stay focused for an RU win 66 - 63.
But the guys believe they're on a mission and stay focused for an RU win 66 - 63.
Last edited:
Yes...at 8-5 RU is fairly solid going into that.
and I know this is getting way ahead and I know the committee doesnt take into consideration how you finish but going 7-3 and then going 3-7 and bowing out in first Big 10 game would mean losses in 8 of 11. I know we are just playing around with scenerios thats its exactly far fetched so I see alot of handwringing at that point
anyhoo this league is like a game of boggle. I think some teams are going to pile up losses. As I said before cannibalism sucks and its going to hurt this league. Can a 12-8 team finish in 2nd place?
we truly have no clue what is going to happen with this league standings since there is little seperation after Michigan State with the exception of Northwestern and despite their wins I am pretty sure Nebby is headed for 13th place
and I know this is getting way ahead and I know the committee doesnt take into consideration how you finish but going 7-3 and then going 3-7 and bowing out in first Big 10 game would mean losses in 8 of 11. I know we are just playing around with scenerios thats its exactly far fetched so I see alot of handwringing at that point
anyhoo this league is like a game of boggle. I think some teams are going to pile up losses. As I said before cannibalism sucks and its going to hurt this league. Can a 12-8 team finish in 2nd place?
we truly have no clue what is going to happen with this league standings since there is little seperation after Michigan State with the exception of Northwestern and despite their wins I am pretty sure Nebby is headed for 13th place
OFFICIAL GLIDE PATH to 11-9
Be at 5 wins on 1/22 (go 2-2)
at Illinois
Indiana
Minnesota
at Iowa
Be at 8 wins on 2/9 (go 3-2)
Nebraska
Purdue
neutral Michigan
at Maryland
Northwestern
Be at 10 wins on 2/13 (go 2-2)
at Ohio State
Illinois
Michigan
at Wisconsin
Last 3
at Penn State
Maryland
at Purdue
Be at 5 wins on 1/22 (go 2-2)
at Illinois
Indiana
Minnesota
at Iowa
Be at 8 wins on 2/9 (go 3-2)
Nebraska
Purdue
neutral Michigan
at Maryland
Northwestern
Be at 10 wins on 2/13 (go 2-2)
at Ohio State
Illinois
Michigan
at Wisconsin
Last 3
at Penn State
Maryland
at Purdue
From a thread from last week:
Good news is we won't go 0-3 in the toss-ups since we got the Penn State win.
Better news is.... how much freaking fun is it that the three of us are all doing these back-of-the-napkin calculations?
Good news is we won't go 0-3 in the toss-ups since we got the Penn State win.
Better news is.... how much freaking fun is it that the three of us are all doing these back-of-the-napkin calculations?
Would be happy to go 2-2 in the next four.
I think this is a difficult game that we are likely to lose. Illinois 70- Rutgers 56.
I hope I'm very wrong.
I think this is a difficult game that we are likely to lose. Illinois 70- Rutgers 56.
I hope I'm very wrong.
lol so true and because of the 3 wins we have that are quality we can do this with a bit of confidence. The issue I have will be the road mark which is currently just 1-3....you cant get by going 1-11 or 2-10...those are big red flags on a resume so yeah I would trade some RAC losses for road wins...at Iowa and vs Michigan
There's only one truly unwinnable road game to me and that's Maryland. Something weird is going on at Ohio State and they will probably fix it by February 12 but as we sit here they've lost three in a row and four of six (one win was against SE Missouri State).
Iowa without their unreal shooter CJ Fredrick is a winnable road game, and he's been in a boot so I doubt he returns by January 22.
Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Purdue are all beatable. We won't be favored in any but we have a punchers chance.
taking 90% of barts probability number off..........
pre game wins at 11 pace........bart%...90% bart win
2.963 Sat 1-11 A Illinois 43% 39%
3.35 Wed 1-15 H Indiana 75% 68%
4.025 Sun 1-19 H Minnesota 66% 59%
4.619 Wed 1-22 A Iowa 39% 35%
4.97 Sat 1-25 H Nebraska 92% 83%
5.798 Tue 1-28 H Purdue 66% 59%
6.392 Sat 2-01 N Michigan 52% 47%
6.86 Tue 2-04 A Maryland 35% 32%
7.175 Sun 2-09 H Northwestern 88% 79%
7.967 Wed 2-12 A Ohio St. 22% 20%
8.165 Sat 2-15 H Illinois 72% 65%
8.813 Wed 2-19 H Michigan 66% 59%
9.407 Sun 2-23 A Wisconsin 38% 34%
9.749 Wed 2-26 A Penn St. 38% 34%
10.091 Tue 3-03 H Maryland 64% 58%
10.667 Sat 3-07 A Purdue 37% 33%
to be ahead of pace you have to have wins at or above the integer above the number.
You need to be at 3 before Illnois game
You need to be at 5 before Nebraska game
You need to be at 8 before Ohio State game
You need to be at 10 before Penn State
pre game wins at 11 pace........bart%...90% bart win
2.963 Sat 1-11 A Illinois 43% 39%
3.35 Wed 1-15 H Indiana 75% 68%
4.025 Sun 1-19 H Minnesota 66% 59%
4.619 Wed 1-22 A Iowa 39% 35%
4.97 Sat 1-25 H Nebraska 92% 83%
5.798 Tue 1-28 H Purdue 66% 59%
6.392 Sat 2-01 N Michigan 52% 47%
6.86 Tue 2-04 A Maryland 35% 32%
7.175 Sun 2-09 H Northwestern 88% 79%
7.967 Wed 2-12 A Ohio St. 22% 20%
8.165 Sat 2-15 H Illinois 72% 65%
8.813 Wed 2-19 H Michigan 66% 59%
9.407 Sun 2-23 A Wisconsin 38% 34%
9.749 Wed 2-26 A Penn St. 38% 34%
10.091 Tue 3-03 H Maryland 64% 58%
10.667 Sat 3-07 A Purdue 37% 33%
to be ahead of pace you have to have wins at or above the integer above the number.
You need to be at 3 before Illnois game
You need to be at 5 before Nebraska game
You need to be at 8 before Ohio State game
You need to be at 10 before Penn State
the thing is all these teams are saying the same thing about Rutgers, they are beatable which we are especially without Geo
while the Big 10 is very good this year, it was clearly better last year. You had better teams toward the top. Some teams are better, some are worse, some are the same. The biggest drop is Purdue, the biggest rise is Rutgers and I think Penn State but not sure those two are replacing how good Purdue was.
yeah not sold on Ohio State anymore. They will be fine long term but they went from dominant to beatable awfully fast
while the Big 10 is very good this year, it was clearly better last year. You had better teams toward the top. Some teams are better, some are worse, some are the same. The biggest drop is Purdue, the biggest rise is Rutgers and I think Penn State but not sure those two are replacing how good Purdue was.
yeah not sold on Ohio State anymore. They will be fine long term but they went from dominant to beatable awfully fast
disagree....I'll bet our Maryland anti Turdgeon fans will disagree too. Even when we were bad we could hang at Maryland
It's a tough place for us to play. I'm hoping Illinois's one point win last night against Wisconsin will prove to be the letdown elixir against them. If we win, it's because we out defended and out-hustled them. They have better shooters than we have, but they're sloppy and can regress into schoolyard BB. Cockburn is a monster. I still can't believe he's a freshman. He looks like he's a 30 year old guy out there.
Last edited:
