We are now six games into the season...the halfway point. Rather than micro-analyze every game and extrapolate the good and the bad, it makes sense to take a step back and think about what we have seen thus far.
1. 2 wins and 4 losses, but should be 3-3: I don't think our record is a massive misrepresentation of where we are as a program. Ohio State was the only truly dreadful game from a competitiveness standpoint, while the team battled and remained competitive vs. Nebraska and Washington. Some would argue we should have beaten Nebraska, but I'd argue that we could have beaten them...but on the road, as a program used to losing, and without superior talent, a loss wasn't shocking or a result of mass negligence. Eastern Michigan...more and more...looks like a game we should have won. To me, that is the only real miss relative to a game we should have won.
2. Coaching: I think the coaching remains a work in progress. I don't have any real issues with personnel at this point. While the QB decisions have been a point of contention, I think much (not all) of it is monday morning quarterbacking. Bolin was pretty underwhelming, but I totally get why the staff stayed with him until this week and it hasn't struck me as unreasonable. You could make a case that he was not the guy after EMU, but if he has been the best QB and/or leader in practice and the film room, you could chalk up that game to rust or just an off day. Beyond that, personnel decisions have seemed fine to me...feels like the best players are playing.
I think defensively, we have been better and I've been relatively satisfied with the coaching on that side of the ball since Ash got here. Offensively it seems like it remains a big struggle. I don't know why we can't assemble an offense that puts pressure on defenses, but with Mehringer last year trying to be bold and Kill this year trying to be more conservative...with similar results...I tend to think it is driven by personnel more than scheme. We saw against Illinois, when we have the better players, we can do well...but of course we didn't see it against EMU...so it hasn't been there every week.
I do think Ash is making a lot of improvements to the program...more structure, discipline, etc. I share the concerns with others that he can be too uptight which can translate to the team playing uptight. Hopefully the win will loosen things up a bit and we will see the team perform more consistently better.
3. The Young Kids: Perhaps there is some recency bias, but Blackshear looks like an absolute steal. I think RutgersAl made the comparison (in typical hyperbole) of Blackshear looking like Reggie Bush...but he kind of does. Smaller, but solid...shifty, fast, extra gear, etc. There is no reason he can't play that role in this offence. We haven't seen too much out of the other true freshman thus far beyond limited playing time. Melton has made a few special teams mistakes thus far and hasn't made much of an impact offensively, but it is early and getting him experience can only help. Fatukasi has made a few standout plays on specials (although Harris always seems to get credit on TV as they are both #3). Clark, Fogg, and Lewis, thus far, are TBD (to be determined). Hunter Hayek the only true freshman beyond Blackshear that has had a real role, thus far, and looks like he will make a contribution while here. Overall, though, I'd say the 'return' on the class hasn't been that great, but with a lot of the kids redshirting (thankfully), we shouldn't have expected much just yet.
4. The Slightly Less Young Kids: Looking at the Class of 2016 (Ash's first class...half his class, half Flood), and there does not appear to be a ton of impact players (I hate to say). It is still early for this group as well, but guys who I would list as contributors would include Mike Maetti, Dacoven Bailey, Tyreek Williams (out this year), KJ Gray, Elorm Lumor, Damon Hayes, Nick Krimin, and Julius Turner. There are some decent players in there, but no obvious difference makers yet. Again, it is early, but I suspect we will need to find our star power in the next few classes.
5. Recruiting: All things considered (i.e. our play on the field for the most part), I think recruiting has gone well. As I state above, we are going to need guys that can be difference makers, and with last year's class and the upcoming class, we hopefully have a few in Lewis, Clark, Melton, Blackshear, Vretman, Fogg, Fatukasi, then in the Class of 2019 with Raiqwon O'Neal, Pacheco, Anderson, Lacewell, and others. Young guys bring hope, and everyone thinks there young guys are going to be stars, but it feels like we are bringing in higher caliber recruits than we have for a while. We know the staff works hard at recruiting and considering we don't have great on-the-field results to sell, I think they are doing well thus far. Whether it is good enough to compete at the top of our division...I think it isn't...but to move us out of the cellar in the Big Ten, I think it is.
6. Other Observations: Ryan Anderson at punter and Jason Davidowicz as the kick-off guy have made a huge difference...would really like to see Janarion Grant get another return touchdown as a reward for coming back...special teams coverage teams has been mostly underwhelming again (partly negated by the kick-off guy and punter)...need to utilize more of the field on offense and figure out a way to get the WRs more involved (not sure if scheme, play calling, or they can't get open)...Washington, at tight end, is just a horse (in a good way)...If healthy, think Gio has to be the guy the rest of the way, but when Lewis gets in, he needs to be given a few plays that they have practiced and he can execute well that are more diverse (not just run-option stuff).
7. Outlook: At the very best, there are two wins left on the schedule, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet we win one more amongst the Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State games. For those that took the over on 3.5 wins, I think that EMU game will come back to bite you in the ass.
1. 2 wins and 4 losses, but should be 3-3: I don't think our record is a massive misrepresentation of where we are as a program. Ohio State was the only truly dreadful game from a competitiveness standpoint, while the team battled and remained competitive vs. Nebraska and Washington. Some would argue we should have beaten Nebraska, but I'd argue that we could have beaten them...but on the road, as a program used to losing, and without superior talent, a loss wasn't shocking or a result of mass negligence. Eastern Michigan...more and more...looks like a game we should have won. To me, that is the only real miss relative to a game we should have won.
2. Coaching: I think the coaching remains a work in progress. I don't have any real issues with personnel at this point. While the QB decisions have been a point of contention, I think much (not all) of it is monday morning quarterbacking. Bolin was pretty underwhelming, but I totally get why the staff stayed with him until this week and it hasn't struck me as unreasonable. You could make a case that he was not the guy after EMU, but if he has been the best QB and/or leader in practice and the film room, you could chalk up that game to rust or just an off day. Beyond that, personnel decisions have seemed fine to me...feels like the best players are playing.
I think defensively, we have been better and I've been relatively satisfied with the coaching on that side of the ball since Ash got here. Offensively it seems like it remains a big struggle. I don't know why we can't assemble an offense that puts pressure on defenses, but with Mehringer last year trying to be bold and Kill this year trying to be more conservative...with similar results...I tend to think it is driven by personnel more than scheme. We saw against Illinois, when we have the better players, we can do well...but of course we didn't see it against EMU...so it hasn't been there every week.
I do think Ash is making a lot of improvements to the program...more structure, discipline, etc. I share the concerns with others that he can be too uptight which can translate to the team playing uptight. Hopefully the win will loosen things up a bit and we will see the team perform more consistently better.
3. The Young Kids: Perhaps there is some recency bias, but Blackshear looks like an absolute steal. I think RutgersAl made the comparison (in typical hyperbole) of Blackshear looking like Reggie Bush...but he kind of does. Smaller, but solid...shifty, fast, extra gear, etc. There is no reason he can't play that role in this offence. We haven't seen too much out of the other true freshman thus far beyond limited playing time. Melton has made a few special teams mistakes thus far and hasn't made much of an impact offensively, but it is early and getting him experience can only help. Fatukasi has made a few standout plays on specials (although Harris always seems to get credit on TV as they are both #3). Clark, Fogg, and Lewis, thus far, are TBD (to be determined). Hunter Hayek the only true freshman beyond Blackshear that has had a real role, thus far, and looks like he will make a contribution while here. Overall, though, I'd say the 'return' on the class hasn't been that great, but with a lot of the kids redshirting (thankfully), we shouldn't have expected much just yet.
4. The Slightly Less Young Kids: Looking at the Class of 2016 (Ash's first class...half his class, half Flood), and there does not appear to be a ton of impact players (I hate to say). It is still early for this group as well, but guys who I would list as contributors would include Mike Maetti, Dacoven Bailey, Tyreek Williams (out this year), KJ Gray, Elorm Lumor, Damon Hayes, Nick Krimin, and Julius Turner. There are some decent players in there, but no obvious difference makers yet. Again, it is early, but I suspect we will need to find our star power in the next few classes.
5. Recruiting: All things considered (i.e. our play on the field for the most part), I think recruiting has gone well. As I state above, we are going to need guys that can be difference makers, and with last year's class and the upcoming class, we hopefully have a few in Lewis, Clark, Melton, Blackshear, Vretman, Fogg, Fatukasi, then in the Class of 2019 with Raiqwon O'Neal, Pacheco, Anderson, Lacewell, and others. Young guys bring hope, and everyone thinks there young guys are going to be stars, but it feels like we are bringing in higher caliber recruits than we have for a while. We know the staff works hard at recruiting and considering we don't have great on-the-field results to sell, I think they are doing well thus far. Whether it is good enough to compete at the top of our division...I think it isn't...but to move us out of the cellar in the Big Ten, I think it is.
6. Other Observations: Ryan Anderson at punter and Jason Davidowicz as the kick-off guy have made a huge difference...would really like to see Janarion Grant get another return touchdown as a reward for coming back...special teams coverage teams has been mostly underwhelming again (partly negated by the kick-off guy and punter)...need to utilize more of the field on offense and figure out a way to get the WRs more involved (not sure if scheme, play calling, or they can't get open)...Washington, at tight end, is just a horse (in a good way)...If healthy, think Gio has to be the guy the rest of the way, but when Lewis gets in, he needs to be given a few plays that they have practiced and he can execute well that are more diverse (not just run-option stuff).
7. Outlook: At the very best, there are two wins left on the schedule, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet we win one more amongst the Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State games. For those that took the over on 3.5 wins, I think that EMU game will come back to bite you in the ass.
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