Weather for Iowa Game: looks to be warm and hopefully dry

[RU848789]

Still a week away, but it's almost certainly going to be a bit to much warmer than normal (normal high/low on 9/24 is 74/52F) with highs at least in the low 80s (could be higher) and it looks to be mainly dry, but some models are showing some light showers in the area late Friday and late Saturday, so it's hard to be certain if the tailgates and game will be totally dry. Having said that, they're more likely to be dry than wet (and even if a few showers hit, they don't look to be significant).
http://www.weather.gov/phi/

By the way, even if TS Karl were to surprise everyone and head towards the east coast (almost all of the guidance shows Karl moving closer to Bermuda and then curving N and NE towards the Canadian Maritimes), it likely wouldn't impact us until next Sunday into Monday.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...o-life-karl-continues-west-with-little-change

 

[bac2therac]

Interesting uncertainty for next weekend. Looks like its going to be dry although the issue is the presence of a backdoor cold front. Mt Holly seems unsure of its placement next week and it could mean the difference between highs in the mid to upper 70s or highs in the mid to upper 80s. Right now they have the warmth for Philly south and cooler north of that but given its still 6 days away who know

everything seems to be moving very slow across the country right now, the advertised front is painfully moving through PA but rains keep getting pushed later into Monday with this front and there is still a major question mark on whether the front picks up some of Julia's waste in the next 24 hours...the Euro even had Julia's waste getting sucked up sometime later in the week but Mt Holly not buying into that.

 

[IMARUFAN]

Hopefully it'll be dry for the Iowa game.

But, am I the only person sick of this heat?

It's late September. I'm wearing sunscreen and drinking lemonaide at the Rutgers games. I'm watching football on a Sunday afternoon with the A/C on because it's 86 degrees outside. That's just wrong.

 

[mildone]

Hopefully it'll be dry for the Iowa game.

But, am I the only person sick of this heat?

It's late September. I'm wearing sunscreen and drinking lemonaide at the Rutgers games. I'm watching football on a Sunday afternoon with the A/C on because it's 86 degrees outside. That's just wrong.

I'm enjoying the heat, to be honest. And I'm also looking forward to having several 18"+ snowstorms this Winter. But first I'm looking forward to those crisp cool Autumn nights and the leaves changing colors. Also looking forward to Winter breaking and the arrival of Spring.

Love it all.

 

[bac2therac]

Im a heat lover but I can see your point...its going to be summerlike much of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s...after that front comes through though you may get your wish with at least some low 70s on Sunday and cool into next week but Septembers are getting warmer around here the last several years while it seems like Marchs are getting colder

 

[RU4Real]

I'm pretty much done with "warm". Temps have been consistently overperforming all summer. I could use a brisk autumn gameday.

 

[RU848789]

Just got home from my friend's charity bike ride and looked at the latest from the NWS and it's a pretty amazing temperature gradient being predicted for Saturday, associated with the backdoor cold front (which approaches from the NE, typically, instead of most fronts which approach from the NW or W).

As of now their predictions are for highs in the low 70s well to the N and W (like N or 80), in the mid/upper 70s for metro NYC and Central Jersey, low 80s near 276/195 in PA/NJ and then mid/upper 80s from Philly to Toms River and south of there. 6 days out, it's really hard to know where that front will set up, so in reality we could really see temps anywhere from the low 70s to the upper 80s for highs. Crazy. Regardless, it's very likely to be dry with only a slight chance of a brief shower or two.

Anyway, in case anyone is interested, my buddy's bike ride is called Century for the Cure, which has raised well over $2 million over the past 11 years or so (and the riders/volunteers include a few posters from this site). He's a cancer survivor (Hodgkin's Disease) and biking nut, so he really felt like giving back to the Cancer Institute of NJ, after they cured him about 15 years ago. My wife and I and many other volunteers help plan and execute the event, so the riders only have to worry about riding.

I also happen to DJ the picnic celebration they have for all the riders (in Warren) and as some might guess, I help them try to plan from a weather perspective. Hence the tie-in to a weather thread. Was an interesting setup all week, where it really looked like it was going to be wet, today, from early in the week onward, but over the last day or two, the progression of the front kept getting pushed back a few hours seemingly with every forecast package (every 12 hours).

Even as of this morning, it looked like we'd still get a few brief showers in the mid/late afternoon (hence I set up my canopy for my DJ equipiment), but luckily the rain held off all day and it remained cloudy all day, which was nice for the riders, given how muggy it was. I'm sure the riders wouldn't have minded a couple of cooling showers, but certainly the volunteers and family members at the picnic were happy it didn't rain. Great day for the CINJ - my friend was thinking we'd raise $250K today and it all (and I mean all) goes to the CINJ. So, sometimes even 12-24 hour forecasts are off a bit on frontal timing, such that trying to have confidence 6 days out is unrealistic.

 

[bac2therac]

I'm pretty much done with "warm". Temps have been consistently overperforming all summer. I could use a brisk autumn gameday.

meh... thats what you have Michigan at night,Indiana and Penn State for

 

[bac2therac]

#s...wasnt there a Melody Reunion this weekend?

 

[RU848789]

#s...wasnt there a Melody Reunion this weekend?

Yes, last night at the Court Tavern. The "main" reunion is the last Saturday in February (usually) at the Elks Club in NB and it draws 300+ people every year - it's a private event and one has to have been a Melody regular or close to it from the early 80s until 1992 to attend. The "all ages" reunions are in September, usually at the Court and anyone can attend (and the music isn't limited to pre-1993). These are not attended nearly as well, but are still fun. My wife and I (we met at the Melody) have attended all of the main reunions and maybe half of the all ages ones - we missed last night, as I was prepping the playlist for the charity bike ride and my wife wasn't feeling great.

 

[PatrickRU92]

TS Karl huh? It will make a bee line toward Rutgers Stadium on Saturday. I'll be there.

honestly I guess it's looking good for us which is surprising!

 

[Local Shill]

Why are summer-like temps a surprise? It's still summer.

 

[RU848789]

Why are summer-like temps a surprise? It's still summer.

Calendar summer, not meteorological summer, which ends at the end of August (but should end around 9/6, but that would require a really long explanation, lol).

 

[DJ Spanky]

Chance of rain this Saturday?

 

[terrehawk]

My weather channel app says high of 76 on Saturday, 84 on friday and 10% chance of rain.
Sunday low 70s and zero chance of rain.

Hope this forecast holds

 

[bac2therac]

Chance of rain this Saturday?

cant rule it out depending on where the front sets up...we arent talking downpours here and if the small chance happens that it does rain its not like its an all day or even 3 hour plus event

 

[RU848789]

Looking very good for Saturday - more likely, now, that the front will come through by early Saturday, meaning the chances for the heat to continue into Saturday are very low. Temps look to be in the mid/upper 70s for the game, after morning lows in the low 60s. Should be mostly sunny and dry. Yes there is a small chance of a very brief, light shower in the morning, but they're not even putting it into the forecast. Here's the AFD:

Temperatures from Tuesday night through Friday are expected to be
about 8 to 12 degrees above normal to end the summer and start the
autumn. (Autumn begins at 10:21 AM Thursday.)

A cold front is anticipated to extend from northern New England
to the southern Great Lakes on Friday evening. The boundary will
push southward and it is forecast to pass through our region on
Saturday morning. The front is not expected to have much moisture
associated with it, so we will not mention any precipitation.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RU848789]

Looking very good for Saturday - more likely, now, that the front will come through by early Saturday, meaning the chances for the heat to continue into Saturday are very low. Temps look to be in the mid/upper 70s for the game, after morning lows in the low 60s. Should be mostly sunny and dry. Yes there is a small chance of a very brief, light shower in the morning, but they're not even putting it into the forecast.

Looking great for Saturday, with confidence now very high that the cold front will come through late on Friday, leaving seasonable temps (high in the mid-70s) and mostly sunny skies in its wake on Saturday (more clouds in the morning/less in the afternoon, so bring sunscreen if you burn). There is a slight chance of a stray light shower or two overnight Friday into very early Saturday (before sunrise), but the forecast is dry after 6 am.

As a cold front arrives later Friday, the flow should turn more westerly with slight
warming. The timing of the cold front Friday varies some in the
guidance, however the main push of cooler air looks to arrive Friday
night and especially beyond. There is not much moisture along and
ahead of the cold front, and forcing looks to be unorganized and
weak. As a result, just carried slight chance POPs across the far
north Friday night as weakening showers are forecast to be tracking
southeastward.

For Saturday and Sunday...A strong upper-level trough slides across
the Northeast Saturday with some additional amplification possible
Sunday. This will drive a cold front to our south Saturday as
surface high pressure, situated north of the Great Lakes to start
the day, builds southeastward. Decent cold air advection is forecast
to occur under a north-northeast surface wind. While the airmass
should be rather dry, there could be stratocumulus initially with
the onset of the cold air advection particularly over the warmer
ocean waters. There should be a zone of overrunning from near the
Ohio Valley westward, however any precipitation induced by this
should remain there instead of tracking east with the southbound
cold front. Given high pressure building down, we kept a dry
forecast going over the weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[PatrickRU92]

well F me gently with a chainsaw, looks like the law of averages caught up with me!

 

[DJ Spanky]

I hope it does end up cooler than last week. Looking good so far.

well F me gently with a chainsaw, looks like the law of averages caught up with me!

Bend over!

 

[PatrickRU92]

I hope it does end up cooler than last week. Looking good so far.

Bend over!

I'd consider it if you could guarantee this kind of weather for future games!

 

[PiscatawayMike]

well F me gently with a chainsaw, looks like the law of averages caught up with me!

[winking]

 

[mildone]

I'm wondering how it's even possible to be F'd gently with a chainsaw. Although, you know, I'm not wondering all that much.

 

[RU848789]

Forecast has gotten even cooler, with tomorrow's highs now expected to be in the low 70s, which would be slightly below normal (74F). Interesting to see the evolution of this forecast and is why most pros don't try to forecast beyond 6-7 days, since that far out (beyond 7 days) it really looked like the warmth we had this week would last through Saturday.

Could be a light sprinkle or two in the pre-dawn hours, but morning clouds will definitely give way to sunshine by late morning and especially after noon. Going to be a fabulous day for football.

 

[ConvenientParking]

I'm enjoying the heat, to be honest. And I'm also looking forward to having several 18"+ snowstorms this Winter. But first I'm looking forward to those crisp cool Autumn nights and the leaves changing colors. Also looking forward to Winter breaking and the arrival of Spring.

Love it all.

In IA we rarely get 18" once. 2-3 inches as weekly totals and 2-3 monsters over 5-6 months of potential winter. Brief pockets of hoody weather between November and mid January. February is a bitch here.

Edit: No NYC or Philly or AC to speak of. Chicago for a big city venture, Minneapolis when you can't afford Chicago.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Forecast has gotten even cooler, with tomorrow's highs now expected to be in the low 70s, which would be slightly below normal (74F). Interesting to see the evolution of this forecast and is why most pros don't try to forecast beyond 6-7 days, since that far out (beyond 7 days) it really looked like the warmth we had this week would last through Saturday.

Could be a light sprinkle or two in the pre-dawn hours, but morning clouds will definitely give way to sunshine by late morning and especially after noon. Going to be a fabulous day for football.

Low 70's in the sun, inside that stadium for a noon start, is still damb warm to sit in for 3+ hours. Perfect though!

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Low 70's in the sun, inside that stadium for a noon start, is still damb warm to sit in for 3+ hours...however...MUCH better than if we had played the last few days.

 

[RU848789]

In IA we rarely get 18" once. 2-3 inches as weekly totals and 2-3 monsters over 5-6 months of potential winter. Brief pockets of hoody weather between November and mid January. February is a bitch here.

Edit: No NYC or Philly or AC to speak of. Chicago for a big city venture, Minneapolis when you can't afford Chicago.

Yeah, Iowa doesn't have as many huge snowstorms as NYC (not as much moisture to work with), but Iowa does have far more blizzards, with high winds and near zero visibility. Overall, Iowa City averages about the same amount of snowfall per season (28") as NYC, despite it being 5-7F colder in the winter months.

Are you a Modest Mouse fan, by any chance? One of my favorite bands...

 

[ConvenientParking]

Yeah, Iowa doesn't have as many huge snowstorms as NYC (not as much moisture to work with), but Iowa does have far more blizzards, with high winds and near zero visibility. Overall, Iowa City averages about the same amount of snowfall per season (28") as NYC, despite it being 5-7F colder in the winter months.

Are you a Modest Mouse fan, by any chance? One of my favorite bands...

View embedded media

That was my first favorite band. My older cousin donated his copies of Lonsesome Crowded West and Building Nothing to me when he graduated HS and left the states to pursue an Army retirement in Germany.

 

[ConvenientParking]

Yeah, Iowa doesn't have as many huge snowstorms as NYC (not as much moisture to work with), but Iowa does have far more blizzards, with high winds and near zero visibility. Overall, Iowa City averages about the same amount of snowfall per season (28") as NYC, despite it being 5-7F colder in the winter months.

Are you a Modest Mouse fan, by any chance? One of my favorite bands...

View embedded media

 

[hawkimatt]

Grey, wet and windy. I've been deceived.

 

[terrehawk]

Grey, wet and windy. I've been deceived.

It's a trap! Damn east coasters trying to trick us....

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

It's perfect football weather today, by Noon it will be in the 60's and dry.

 

[rurichdog]

well F me gently with a chainsaw, looks like the law of averages caught up with me!

It is 57 and light sprinkling rain. This is your fault.

 

[PatrickRU92]

It is 57 and light sprinkling rain. This is your fault.

I'll be back for Michigan :)

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Mid 70's my ass lol

 

[RU848789]

Mid 70's my ass lol

I'll accept your apology, thanks. High today was 73F, which was a spot on forecast. Was cool and cloudy early, as expected, although there was a surprising deluge of almost 0.02" of rain around 8 am or so (forecast was for any showers to be over by dawn - maybe folks should sue the NWS for being subjected to such heavy rains). Wow. Started becoming sunny around gametime, which again was the prediction, and the game was mostly sunny and warm, again as predicted.

 

[bac2therac]

cool for the tailgates but not cold, im shocked at how many felt cold, it was still in the low to mid 60s...and then for the game..sun out and then really out late as it turned gorgeous

I see longrange models have it warm maybe started next week so hopefully can get an indian summer type game for Michigan but alot of time for Warlock to work on that

 

[RU848789]

cool for the tailgates but not cold, im shocked at how many felt cold, it was still in the low to mid 60s...and then for the game..sun out and then really out late as it turned gorgeous

I see longrange models have it warm maybe started next week so hopefully can get an indian summer type game for Michigan but alot of time for Warlock to work on that

10 days before the Iowa game, the long range models showed sunny and 90F for today. Hence the reason I never post anything that far out. Give it a week and then see what the 7-day forecast looks like.

OSU is looking to be sunny and warm with highs in the mid-70s next Saturday...

 

[OTBOTOR]

It was a beautiful day. Actually a bit too warm for my taste in the sun as the game wore on. Nice fall weather (50s) would be great for the Mishigas night game.