So following yet another disappointing weekend of college football, I couldn't help but wonder why this year feels so much worse than last year.
Let's jump into our Hot Tub Time Machine and go back to the conclusion of our bowl game vs. North Carolina. We finished the year at 8-5 and felt pretty good about what the team had accomplished in Year One of the Big Ten. Flood, while not universally loved, was generally off the hot seat and had the support of the fan base.
In terms of the roster, the only really significant question marks heading into this season were at the QB position, where we had to replace graduating Gary Nova, and offensive line, where we had to replace Bujari, Kaleb Johnson, and Taj Alexander.
In retrospect, I think it is fair to say that the 4-1 record in close games last year was a bit flattering...wins vs. Michigan, Washington State, Navy, and Maryland, and a loss vs. Penn State. The team made the plays necessary to win, but if the Washington State punt returner doesn't fumble, or the Michigan player makes the catch at the sideline in the 4th quarter, or Maryland makes one more play at some point, those wins could have become losses. In reality, if you assume 3-2 or 2-3 in thos five games, the team was more of a 6-7 or 7-6 team a year ago.
Now...going into this season, we obviously had all the issues off-the-field which decimated the secondary...so let's think through where we should be better and where we should be worse vs. last year:
QB: Laviano/Rettig vs. Nova. Nova was actually pretty solid last year, and you would expect first time starters to be a step backwards. Laviano did really well, in my opinion, through the first few games, but has clearly hit a wall and doesn't have the experience or arm talent to push through it. At this point, the senior Nova > Laviano.
RB: With everyone back, you would have expected this position group to be even better than last year, and I think it is fair to say that they have done well and not been the problem. Even against good defenses, they are generally generating positive plays despite defenses not respecting the passing game.
WR/TE: Without Carroo for the bulk of the season, this position group hasn't been as good as last year. Patton still hasn't really broken out, Agudosi has shown some flashes (Agudosi = Turzilli), Grant has been OK at the receiver position (awesome in returns), and Kroft has been a loss. Without Carroo, and with a first-year starter at QB, this group isn't dynamic enough to force the defense to respect them and are a step-down from last year.
OL: I think they have been fine. Run blocking has been better than pass blocking, but I don't know that the group has been materially better or worse than a year ago. Miller has stepped in and done well, Nelson seems alright, and Denman is probably the one struggling the most (more on pass blocking). I'm not an OL expert, but this group seems to have held their own.
Offense Conclusion: With a step down in QB and WR, our offense has become much easier to defend, and I think it is a talent issue as much as anything. I actually have liked (outside of the Wisconsin game), McDaniels play calling and feel like he has a chance to do a nice job here.
DL: The absence of Hamilton and the injuries to Turay have really limited the upside of this group. I think Lambert and Mera have both been solid and are a year older, while Joseph, JPO, and Wilkins have stepped up and done fairly well. Overall, I think this group is a touch below last year, but not significantly better or worse.
LB: Probably the area with the most improvement as both Gause and Longa have been really good. Lewis in for Snyder is probably a modest upgrade considering Snyder's injuries last year, and Lewis has been good against the run...so overall, this position group is likely a bit better.
Secondary: While I really appreciate the effort and recognize that these guys are simply playing before they should, the fact is that the suspensions/dismissals have decimated this position group. No Boggs, no Barnwell, no Peele, and no Stephenson. At minimum, three of those four would have been on the two-deep...if all were healthy and available, probably your two-deep at corner would be Boggs & Barnwell, Austin and Wharton. Stephenson would be in at safety. No question this is a more challenged group than last year.
Defense Conclusion: The secondary has been a big problem all season and it isn't surprising why that is. I think the guys have competed well, but it seems like they have gotten more overwhelmed as the season went on. I think this year will benefit them greatly over the next few years, but we have no experience and no depth in the secondary. It really is no surprise that we can't stop anybody.
Chemistry: I have no idea what the team chemistry is like, but I have to think that guys are frustrated and maybe pulling in different directions. My brother in law was on the Iowa State team during Dan McCarney's final season (where he got fired) and he basically said that once the team lost a few games, that things can unravel pretty quickly in the locker room. It seems like the team has lost some fight and confidence, particularly when they go down in a game. Whether the chemistry is great or not, you have to think that good chemistry helped win some of those close games a year ago.
So overall, what was more likely a .500 team a year ago is now breaking in a new QB, lost their best WR (by a mile) for much of the season, and basically has an extremely inexperienced secondary. The troubles on the field have largely been driven by an inexperienced QB and a secondary that can't stop anybody. In some ways, this season shouldn't be a real surprise to anybody.
Now...that doesn't mean I'm a pro-Flood guy (just to cut off the inevitable commentary). In fact, based on the off-the-field stuff and email-gate, less than imaginative coaching, my view that Flood has limited coaching upside, and the lack of fight far too often, I would prefer to see a change made. My only point in this post is that our record probably shouldn't be a massive surprise.
Let's jump into our Hot Tub Time Machine and go back to the conclusion of our bowl game vs. North Carolina. We finished the year at 8-5 and felt pretty good about what the team had accomplished in Year One of the Big Ten. Flood, while not universally loved, was generally off the hot seat and had the support of the fan base.
In terms of the roster, the only really significant question marks heading into this season were at the QB position, where we had to replace graduating Gary Nova, and offensive line, where we had to replace Bujari, Kaleb Johnson, and Taj Alexander.
In retrospect, I think it is fair to say that the 4-1 record in close games last year was a bit flattering...wins vs. Michigan, Washington State, Navy, and Maryland, and a loss vs. Penn State. The team made the plays necessary to win, but if the Washington State punt returner doesn't fumble, or the Michigan player makes the catch at the sideline in the 4th quarter, or Maryland makes one more play at some point, those wins could have become losses. In reality, if you assume 3-2 or 2-3 in thos five games, the team was more of a 6-7 or 7-6 team a year ago.
Now...going into this season, we obviously had all the issues off-the-field which decimated the secondary...so let's think through where we should be better and where we should be worse vs. last year:
QB: Laviano/Rettig vs. Nova. Nova was actually pretty solid last year, and you would expect first time starters to be a step backwards. Laviano did really well, in my opinion, through the first few games, but has clearly hit a wall and doesn't have the experience or arm talent to push through it. At this point, the senior Nova > Laviano.
RB: With everyone back, you would have expected this position group to be even better than last year, and I think it is fair to say that they have done well and not been the problem. Even against good defenses, they are generally generating positive plays despite defenses not respecting the passing game.
WR/TE: Without Carroo for the bulk of the season, this position group hasn't been as good as last year. Patton still hasn't really broken out, Agudosi has shown some flashes (Agudosi = Turzilli), Grant has been OK at the receiver position (awesome in returns), and Kroft has been a loss. Without Carroo, and with a first-year starter at QB, this group isn't dynamic enough to force the defense to respect them and are a step-down from last year.
OL: I think they have been fine. Run blocking has been better than pass blocking, but I don't know that the group has been materially better or worse than a year ago. Miller has stepped in and done well, Nelson seems alright, and Denman is probably the one struggling the most (more on pass blocking). I'm not an OL expert, but this group seems to have held their own.
Offense Conclusion: With a step down in QB and WR, our offense has become much easier to defend, and I think it is a talent issue as much as anything. I actually have liked (outside of the Wisconsin game), McDaniels play calling and feel like he has a chance to do a nice job here.
DL: The absence of Hamilton and the injuries to Turay have really limited the upside of this group. I think Lambert and Mera have both been solid and are a year older, while Joseph, JPO, and Wilkins have stepped up and done fairly well. Overall, I think this group is a touch below last year, but not significantly better or worse.
LB: Probably the area with the most improvement as both Gause and Longa have been really good. Lewis in for Snyder is probably a modest upgrade considering Snyder's injuries last year, and Lewis has been good against the run...so overall, this position group is likely a bit better.
Secondary: While I really appreciate the effort and recognize that these guys are simply playing before they should, the fact is that the suspensions/dismissals have decimated this position group. No Boggs, no Barnwell, no Peele, and no Stephenson. At minimum, three of those four would have been on the two-deep...if all were healthy and available, probably your two-deep at corner would be Boggs & Barnwell, Austin and Wharton. Stephenson would be in at safety. No question this is a more challenged group than last year.
Defense Conclusion: The secondary has been a big problem all season and it isn't surprising why that is. I think the guys have competed well, but it seems like they have gotten more overwhelmed as the season went on. I think this year will benefit them greatly over the next few years, but we have no experience and no depth in the secondary. It really is no surprise that we can't stop anybody.
Chemistry: I have no idea what the team chemistry is like, but I have to think that guys are frustrated and maybe pulling in different directions. My brother in law was on the Iowa State team during Dan McCarney's final season (where he got fired) and he basically said that once the team lost a few games, that things can unravel pretty quickly in the locker room. It seems like the team has lost some fight and confidence, particularly when they go down in a game. Whether the chemistry is great or not, you have to think that good chemistry helped win some of those close games a year ago.
So overall, what was more likely a .500 team a year ago is now breaking in a new QB, lost their best WR (by a mile) for much of the season, and basically has an extremely inexperienced secondary. The troubles on the field have largely been driven by an inexperienced QB and a secondary that can't stop anybody. In some ways, this season shouldn't be a real surprise to anybody.
Now...that doesn't mean I'm a pro-Flood guy (just to cut off the inevitable commentary). In fact, based on the off-the-field stuff and email-gate, less than imaginative coaching, my view that Flood has limited coaching upside, and the lack of fight far too often, I would prefer to see a change made. My only point in this post is that our record probably shouldn't be a massive surprise.
