Which conference will (most likely) win the next pig skin final 4?
- Thread starter 12375CAT
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SEC has to be favorite. With biased top 25 rankings, they start out with advantages. They play limited games outside conference to compare. When they beat in league SEC team they get bigger boost for quality win. A SEC loss doesn't hurt as much, because opponent is considered top tier. It will take another 2 seasons of SEC losing out conference games to lose the advantages.
Now that CFB has a playoff predicting the actual champion is much more of a crapshoot. I think the Big 12 style teams have trouble matching up with the physical style of the SEC or Ohio State/Michigan State...but in one single elimination game, who knows? The smart bet now would be to say SEC as they are the only conference basically guaranteed a participant.
I will say that I doubt a viable Big 12 team gets shut out again. In a toss up the voters will but a Big 12 team in as, clearly, either Baylor or TCU deserved a shot last year and were only kept out by a numbers crunch.
One thing that I hope never happens, though, is a move to an All Power 5 champs plus an at large format. It would render OOC play close to meaningless.
I will say that I doubt a viable Big 12 team gets shut out again. In a toss up the voters will but a Big 12 team in as, clearly, either Baylor or TCU deserved a shot last year and were only kept out by a numbers crunch.
One thing that I hope never happens, though, is a move to an All Power 5 champs plus an at large format. It would render OOC play close to meaningless.
I wouldnt guarentee that at all. Last year was probably the worst case scenario for the Big 12.
1. Co-champs with one loss each, who had played a close game where the weaker of the two won- so how do pick one over the other?
2. Neither was a name team. If this were Texas and Oklahoma tied for first, I have a feeling the decision would have been a bit harder. Thats just how CFB is. The playoff committee isnt immune to appearances - otherwise they would have left a clearly weaker FSU out entirely in favor of TCU or Baylor.
3. Four one or zero loss conference champs from the other P5 conferences.
4. All four won their conference championships. This is huge and also unlikely. FSU almost loss.
5. The weakest of the four was also the undefeated returning champ. In a normal year, FSU might have gotten left out in favor of TCU, but not in the first year of playoffs, with last years title belt.
6. Both had ridiculously weak OOC schedules.
This wont line up every year, or even most years. It was a perfect storm against the Big 12. If one of those 6 things didnt happen, TCU or Baylor is in, or they both have two losses and they have no shot.
Really. So with Kansas State's OOC of South Dakota, Texas San Antonio, and Louisiana Tech, and a conference schedule where every single good opponent is at home, and in a conference without a championship game, and ending the season with 10 loss Iowa State, 10 loss Kansas, and a middle of the pack West Virginia, (Edit, I forgot-)and K-State is not Texas or Oklahoma so der's #2 rule applies, that the exact same thing will not happen as last year when they already said they will not change the way they select the teams. Sorry but a Kansas State champion is the Big 12's nightmare.
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7. Because of item #3, the team that was left out was the team that lost the latest in the season. The "conventional wisdom" in college football has always been that it is better to win earlier rather than later. FSU was undefeated, Ohio State lost on September 6, Oregon lost on October 2, Alabama lost on October 4, TCU (co-champion of the Big 12) lost on October 11, and Baylor (Big 12 champion due to head-to-head win over TCU) lost on October 18.
I'm not sure I completely follow your 5th point. Were you saying the playoff committee favored conference champions, as they have stated it being part of the criteria? When an undefeated P5 champion is left out of the 4 playoff spots, it will be a statement that conference is clearly at least a step below the other 4. Also, Florida State was ranked #3 and Ohio State was #4, so people complaining that TCU was excluded are suggesting TCU was more deserving than the team who won the championship. The choice wasn't Florida State vs TCU, it was Ohio State vs TCU and Ohio State proved they belonged. TCU destroyed a team that was exposed as a pretender (losing 3 of their last 4 against FBS competition) in the Peach Bowl, which is hardly "proof" they were snubbed. Also consider that the Big 12 champ Baylor lost to Michigan State in the Cotton, 3rd place Kansas State lost to UCLA in the Alamo, and 4th place Oklahoma got crushed by Clemson in the Russel Athletic. The Big 12 was not as strong as people believed it was.
While this probably is a violation of anti-trust laws, I would prefer the P5 conference to schedule inter-conference games in place of the 9th conference game many of them are going to so that we have a better understanding of comparative conference strength in future seasons. TCU could have taken the 4th spot away from Ohio State last season due to the illusion (and ESPN PR) the Big 12 was stronger than the B1G is a reality that will eventually happen.
The coaches and players are saying that they will. But seeing will be believing. It will be hard to replace the 3 studs that moved on for defense.
The Big 12 NEEDS to have a certified winner of a conference championship game. Just saying one team is the champion carries very little gravitas with the committee.
What you say is true for the old BCS but I disagree with it for the new playoff. The SEC winner will get in and 3 other conference winners will get in as well. But who ever gets in will need to win 2 games against other conference winners. An SEC bias doesnt mean they will win the 2 games on th field. Just like 2014.
The committee I think put FSU at #3 for political reasons to avoid the very thing that you are suggesting - the team #4 vs team #5 comparisons. FSU was clearly the weakest of the four by basically any ranking system. Putting them at #3 kind of headed off the inevitbale - what happens when TCU wins it bowl and FSU loses big in its bowl.
Not true. The Coaches Poll prior to the playoff had Alabama, FSU, Oregon, Ohio State, Baylor, TCU... The AP prior to the playoff had Alabama, FSU, Oregon, Baylor, Ohio State, TCU... Massey has the computer composite, of Alabama, Florida State, Oregon, Ohio State, TCU, Baylor... Sagarin's ELO (BCS computer, ranked 7th) and Massey (4th) were the only BCS computers that didn't have FSU ranked either #1 or #2. Had last season been the last year of the BCS, the BCS title game would have been #1 Alabama vs #2 Florida State unless the Harris Poll was dramatically different (Oregon #1 and Florida State being 5th or lower). Let's face it, Alabama vs FSU for the BCS Title... SEC! SEC! SEC! as Alabama wins the title.
Yeah not sure what people are thinking here. If K-State wins the Big XII, they will not be in the playoff.
As for the QP, the SEC is obviously the prohibitive favorite.
As for the QP, the SEC is obviously the prohibitive favorite.
But the SEC representative still has to win it on the field against another conference champion instead of winning it in the ESPN boardroom. The new format is considerably less favorable to the SEC than the previous BCS format, which was a joke.
No particular order.
SEC Alabama
BIG Ohio State
PAC 10 USC
and the fourth doesn't matter cause one of those three will be your champ.
SEC Alabama
BIG Ohio State
PAC 10 USC
and the fourth doesn't matter cause one of those three will be your champ.
We were told the committee would pick the best four teams. FSU was not one of the best four teams and everyone knew it. Bottom line, they are people and will have biases. Not to mention they have fine people, but some have no football expertise,ie a Retired General and a secretary of state. Did I mention Trained Geese is on the committee? Enough said.
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