The way this starting lineup (I called it, btw) and rotation playing, and a healthy Dylan, go steal those raids ins and be DAWGS.
I’m still an “IN” btw
I’m still an “IN” btw
You’ve lost games you should have won. Time to win games you “should” lose.
- Thread starter SBP
- Start date
I don’t know. It didn’t feel like a magic bullet type change to me. Acuff only played 15 minutes despite starting. J Will still played 26 minutes - slightly above his average. Ogbole and Sommerville played what they have been playing minutes wise. Basically Acuff got Jordan’s minutes. It’s not like Acuff did anything spectacular. He made one shot.
I would be for that!
If RU wants even a shot at the NCAA, they are going to have to win some games they were not expected to win.
Before the season lined up I had RU with 6 projected losses, 18 projected wins and 7 "swing" games, meaning if that held, RU might only have ot win 1-2 swing games to get to 19 or 20 regular season wins and an NCAA bid (presuming they won all the games they would have been expected to win, they'd have no "bad" losses to blemish their record).
Sadly, that is no longer the case.RU has LOST 3 games I had projected they win, 2 being very, very damaging to the resume: @ Kennesaw St, Princeton at home and Wisconsin at home. And had NOT win ANY "swing" games to date, going 0-2 in those so far (Texas A&M on a neutral court and home vs Purdue.
That leaves RU with a very tall task, that even the most optimistic fans would have trouble having the faith to believe - though hope does spring eternal, eh?
Currently, RU has 14 games left, all Big Ten. NOT making any changes in my pre-season handicapping (i.e. not re-doing what RU's expected wins or losses might be as if I were starting the projections over from now, based on what the team has done), here is what I think the math is:
1) RU has 6 games left that pre-season I had as expected wins, 3 Home, 3 Away: @ Nebraska, @ Penn St, @ Northwestern, Home vs Iowa, Home vs USC and Home vs Minnesota - in that order, by the way.
2) RU has 3 games left that pre-season would have been expected losses, all Away games: @ Oregon, @ Michigan and @ Purdue.
3) RU still has pre-season 5 "swing games" left, 2 Home, 2 Away, and Michigan St at MSG - neutral but technically a home game: Michigan St., home vs Michigan, home vs Illinois, @ Maryland and @ Washington.
Unfortunately, at 9-8 overall, 2-4 in the Big Ten, I think to even be on the bubble, RU must go 10-4 to finish 19-12 (12-8). But to do that, RU would have to likely win ALL its home games (5, or if you count MSU at MSG, 6), PLUS at least 4 (FOUR) road games (of the 8 road games remaining).
But, frankly, that may not be enough to make up for the Kennesaw St and Princeton losses, and NO good wins OOC. RU would likely have at least 5-6, or more, Quad 1 wins, and more Quad 2 wins, should they do that, and a winning record in the Big Ten - probably a top Half of the league in the standings finish, which would help.
But even at 19-12 (12-8) RU probably would have to win at least 1 game in the Big Ten tourney, to get to 20-13. That is PROBABLY enough, though no guarantee.
If RU goes 9-5 (even that is not an easy task), to finish 18-13 *(11-9), I would guess RU would HAVE ti win AT LEAST 2 games, maybe 3, in the Bug Ten Tourney, to get to 20-14 or 21-14. With their 2 bad losses, not sure 20-14 does it.
So ... mathematically possible, and if Harper and Bailey are CONSISTENTLY 45%+ shooters -0 meaning in almost every game (and some games better), AND if the defense and rebounding DOES consistently continue to improve ... than it IS possible. But very tough.
If RU wants even a shot at the NCAA, they are going to have to win some games they were not expected to win.
Before the season lined up I had RU with 6 projected losses, 18 projected wins and 7 "swing" games, meaning if that held, RU might only have ot win 1-2 swing games to get to 19 or 20 regular season wins and an NCAA bid (presuming they won all the games they would have been expected to win, they'd have no "bad" losses to blemish their record).
Sadly, that is no longer the case.RU has LOST 3 games I had projected they win, 2 being very, very damaging to the resume: @ Kennesaw St, Princeton at home and Wisconsin at home. And had NOT win ANY "swing" games to date, going 0-2 in those so far (Texas A&M on a neutral court and home vs Purdue.
That leaves RU with a very tall task, that even the most optimistic fans would have trouble having the faith to believe - though hope does spring eternal, eh?
Currently, RU has 14 games left, all Big Ten. NOT making any changes in my pre-season handicapping (i.e. not re-doing what RU's expected wins or losses might be as if I were starting the projections over from now, based on what the team has done), here is what I think the math is:
1) RU has 6 games left that pre-season I had as expected wins, 3 Home, 3 Away: @ Nebraska, @ Penn St, @ Northwestern, Home vs Iowa, Home vs USC and Home vs Minnesota - in that order, by the way.
2) RU has 3 games left that pre-season would have been expected losses, all Away games: @ Oregon, @ Michigan and @ Purdue.
3) RU still has pre-season 5 "swing games" left, 2 Home, 2 Away, and Michigan St at MSG - neutral but technically a home game: Michigan St., home vs Michigan, home vs Illinois, @ Maryland and @ Washington.
Unfortunately, at 9-8 overall, 2-4 in the Big Ten, I think to even be on the bubble, RU must go 10-4 to finish 19-12 (12-8). But to do that, RU would have to likely win ALL its home games (5, or if you count MSU at MSG, 6), PLUS at least 4 (FOUR) road games (of the 8 road games remaining).
But, frankly, that may not be enough to make up for the Kennesaw St and Princeton losses, and NO good wins OOC. RU would likely have at least 5-6, or more, Quad 1 wins, and more Quad 2 wins, should they do that, and a winning record in the Big Ten - probably a top Half of the league in the standings finish, which would help.
But even at 19-12 (12-8) RU probably would have to win at least 1 game in the Big Ten tourney, to get to 20-13. That is PROBABLY enough, though no guarantee.
If RU goes 9-5 (even that is not an easy task), to finish 18-13 *(11-9), I would guess RU would HAVE ti win AT LEAST 2 games, maybe 3, in the Bug Ten Tourney, to get to 20-14 or 21-14. With their 2 bad losses, not sure 20-14 does it.
So ... mathematically possible, and if Harper and Bailey are CONSISTENTLY 45%+ shooters -0 meaning in almost every game (and some games better), AND if the defense and rebounding DOES consistently continue to improve ... than it IS possible. But very tough.
It’s the confidence in giving credit to a player is more composed than the ice skater, head down and run into a wall, and brick layer players we have instead.
I setting acuff there gives us another scoring option when out there and some composure. If Jwill and Jmike play the way they did the other night Pike will rode them but their best days head may be as sparks off the bench. That’s not a bad thing and becomes a spark, situational, or riding a hot hand.
That “confidence” did not spark a magic bullet or give us this additional great scoring option on the court. At least not in the UCLA game. As said Acuff made one shot and was 1 for 3 from the field. He recorded an assist and otherwise had an invincible stat line. J Will had a good game coming off the bench. More likely than not, he just happened to have a good game on this day and it had nothing to do with the fact that he played a combination of 26 min that didn’t include the opening tip.
For 100 years it’s been about who finishes, not who starts. A player who needs the psychological lift of starting is probably not the guy you need to win. It’s all about how productive and impactful the player is in the minutes they get.
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