Seeds 5 -8 Available (7 Teams):
Cards. 28-26. Four games with Brewers
Reds. 29-28. Three games with Minnesota.
Marlins. 29-28. Three games with Yankmees.
Giants lose. 28-28. Four games with the Padres.
Phillies. 28-29. Three games with Tampa Bay.
Brewers. 27-29. Four games with Cards.
Mets. 26-31. Three games with Washington
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record (if applicable), and the next is intradivisional record. If the teams are still tied, the next tiebreaker is the teams’ record in their final 20 division games (plus one until the tie is broken).
Improbable, but possible scenario:
Mets need to win all three, ending 29-31. Porcello pitches tonight. Then deGrom, Lugo.
Cards win out, or go 3-1 against Brewers. Mets pass Brewers, Brewers end 27 or 28 wins.
Phillies must lose all three to Tampa Bay. Can't rely on tie and head to head record against Phils.
Giants lost all four to Padres, end up 28-32.
If there is a tie (excluding Phillies), Mets are in if:
Mets intradivisional record is 17-20; win all three, intradivisional record ends at 20-20.
Brewers intradivisional record is 17-19. If Brewers win two, Mets still pass Brewers.
Giants intradivisional record is 17-19. If Giants lose two, Mets pass Brewers.
Phillies still need to lose all three.
Probably screwed something up in that analysis- check my work, but: