Hoffman, Guerrero, Bagwell and Schilling.
I know Schilling is a close call but what puts him over the top for me is his post game record. He was clutch when it counted most and loved the big game setting.
Bagwell came so close last year he will garner the additional votes this year.
I do not believe Schilling is really a close call at all ... it is ONLY his post season performances that even bring him to the area of close call.
Some have said there are plenty of worse pitchers than Schilling in the Hall of Fame. This is true. But those pitchers were likely MISTAKES, and should not be the reason OTHER mistakes should be inducted.
Basically, if Schilling had not had spectacularly good post season performances, he would NEVER even be in the discussion for the Hall of Fame, not even close.
His best case for the Hall of Fame is:
1) Spectacular post season success ... maybe best, or at worst case 3rd best, in baseball history.
2) ERA+ of 127, which is very good.
3) He had several "big" seasons ... often a criteria for potential Hall of Famers.
BUT the case AGAINST Schilling is actually much stronger:
1) His great post season success represents a VERY small sample size for his entire career: Just 133 IP versus almost 3300 total IP pitched in the regular season. Though fortuitously timed (either by luck or the difficult to define "clutchness"), many pitchers can show 130-150 innings of such brilliance. The timeliness and importance appropriately gets Schilling attention, but should only get him over the top if he was close ANYWAY ... which he is not, in my opinion.
2) Though he had several "big" seasons ... 3 20-win seasons (which is 2 more than a Hall of Famer like Don Sutton, I think), he STILL only had 216 regular season career wins. In fact he had EIGHT (8) of his last 18 seasons where he won 9 or FEWER games ... in other words, he had almost 3 times more seasons winning 9 or fewer games than 20 or more games.
3) Though he had several big seasons, he NEVER won the Cy Young. He did finish 2nd in those 3 big seasons. But basically, he was never considered the best pitcher in his league. Also, though he did lead the league in a season in a number of pitching categories in his career, he never led the league in ERA, and only 4 times had an ERA below 3.00. The other problem was that outside of his 3 big years, and one other year, he was NEVER considered amongst the top pitchers in his league. He only finished in the top TEN (10) of the Cy Young voting 4 times (contrast to Mussina, who never won a Cy Young, and did not have as many "big" years as Schilling, but finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting 9 times).
4) Of his 10 most comparable peers, 9 are NOT in the Hall of Fame ... and none of those 9 will likely EVER be in the Hall of Fame. The 2 most comparable are truly similar (over 900 score from Baseball-Reference.com - Hall of Famers tend to NOT have peers that are truly similar): Kevin Brown and Bob Welch. Others: CC Sabathia,Tim Hudson, Orel Hershiser, Freddie Fitzsimmons, Milt Pappas, Mark Buerhle, Bartolo Colon and John Smoltz. Other then Smoltz (who is in the Hall of Fame), do any of those SP look like Hall of Famers? Some have said Kevin Brown, others might say Orel Hershiser. Kevin Brown has a very similar career: Similar wins (but fewer), similar ERA (but better), similar ERA+, had some big years (but his big years were not as many, nor as good as Schilling's), similarly not winning a Cy Young ... but Schilling was a much better K pitcher, and was also much better in the post season. Kevin Brown was similar, but in my opinion distinctly LESSER than Schilling. Hershiser is a different case ... Not as similar to Schilling as was Brown, and owned a spectacular in-season record, of course, and had the ONE truly MONSTER year, which won him a Cy Young. Hershiser also had an outstanding post season performance, but distinctly lesser than Schilling's ... similar to Hershiser's career ... similar to Schilling but distinctly lesser. There is, quite frankly, no comparison to Smoltz. Smoltz is way superior a Hall of Fame candidate than Schilling. Smoltz and Schilling essentially overlapped almost exactly (1988 - 2007 for Schilling, 1988 - 2009 for Smoltz). They had essentially similar win-loss records, similar ERA's (Smoltz's was lower, but in the NL), similar ERA+'s, similar K's (Schilling had a few more K's). Schilling had 3 big years as a starter (3 times 20 wins), while Smoltz did only had ONE (1) 20-win season ... but Smoltz won the Cy Young that year, which Schilling was never able to do. Smoltz had just 4 seasons with 9 or fewer wins - not including his 3 seasons as a relief pitcher (to Schilling's 8). BUT ... Smoltz was essentially Schilling, but with THREE seasons where he was either the BEST or close to the best CLOSER, as well.
I am sorry: Schilling just does not cut it for me for the Hall of Fame ... and I do not find it even all that close.
Frankly, I think Mussina is a much better Hall of Fame candidate than is Schilling. And I am not even convinced he should be a slam dunk Hall of Famer. 3 of Mussina's most comparable peers are Hall of Famers (Marichal, Palmer and Hubbell) - though I think all 3 are distinctly, and even much, better than Mussina. Pettite is his most comparable eer - and Pettite has a chance at the Hall of Fame also - though I do not think HE deserves it (and not because of PED's - that does not disturb me all that much - mainly because of a VERY pedestrian ERA, and that he was really just a compiler ... and though he got 256 wins - which IS a lot - is that enough for a compiler ... maybe in this era it is). Mussina was a compiler also ... just 20 wins twice. On the other hand he was REGULARLY considered for the Cy Young (though he never won) - he finished in the top 6 in the Cy Young 9 times. His ERA was high for the Hall of Fame, in my opinion (3.68), but his ERA+ was 123 - pretty good. Mussina was also an exact contemporary of Schilling - and in the same league, mostly, as well ... but finished in the top 6 of the Cy Young voting 5 more tiems than did Schilling.