3 of Last 4 games our D (according to Bart) has been pedestrian

[Greene Rice FIG]

Adjusted Eff D
Iowa 76 pts / 68 possessions ADJ eff 1.007
Nw 62/59 1.016
OSU 64/71 .82
MSU 70/63 .984

1.00 adjusted defensive efficiency is 94th in country right now

I know I am the boy/man who cried wolf. I am mildly worried.

 

[Mbash93]

Iowa made 12 3s

MSU made over 50%

We shot 27% and 12% in those games.

Missed shots lead to easier baskets. I’m not worried.

NW also hit some prayers

 

[motel00]

There is a balance here. But we are giving up way too many open threes.

 

[RUJMM78]

Rutgers has played less full court press allowing opponents more time to run half court offense .Less turnovers have occurred and easy fast break baskets for the Rutgers offense.

 

[fluoxetine]

Higher opponent 3p% => worse defensive efficiency. Groundbreaking stuff

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Teams aren't willing to continue to run through a trapping, pressing half court offense in the post and are willing to take/chuck up more 3s.

As teams adjust, so will RUs defense. Why is it that there's no thought process or that RU won't tweak their defense??

 

[goru7]

The issue is not that the defensive efficiency got worse, obvious to the naked eye and confirmed by the metrics , but what type of shots were the pother team getting. Iowa was hot early , we didn’t defend well but then we did and Sandfort worked his tail off getting around pin downs and got hot. I could live with that although Hyatt could have swapped with Mag to try and cool him off . Northwestern made some tough late shot clock 3’s and also got a 30 foot bank shot as well as 3’s with a hand down but overall not terrible. Ohio State our defense was elite and McNeil hit 3 tough ones but we shut down everyone else.
MSU was the first one that really bothered me. From having hands down , to terrible rotations ,to leaving guys wide open ,that defense is inexcusable. In my opinion the only way MSU could beat us was by making a ton of 3’s and 36-6 edge was the difference in the game. Need to totally clean that up in the rematch at MSG. If Cam hit his wide open 3’s we probably win the game or instead of 1-12 he goes 4 -12 or 5-12 we probably win because we would have taken the lead and MSU would have gotten tight . So overall , MSU is only game that concerned me regarding defending the 3 point line.

 

[RUisB1Gtime]

We play our starters heavy minutes. These kids are not robots. Asking them to play intense D every night with their hair on fire is not easy. Of course their will be some slippage at times

 

[bac2therac]

Teams aren't willing to continue to run through a trapping, pressing half court offense in the post and are willing to take/chuck up more 3s.

As teams adjust, so will RUs defense. Why is it that there's no thought process or that RU won't tweak their defense??

i thought we would see a tweak in this game but we didnt. Despite all the bad shooting it was down to just 6 points and I think Pike decided to keep rolling with what got RU winning all season. Not so sure we see the tweaks....what will be the approach for Iowa, I hope its different given their offense is a freight train right now. Penn State is going to be a tough matchup as they can hit the 3.

 

[MadRU]

Iowa and OSU had one really hot shooter that hit many difficult shots.

 

[RW90]

Sometimes you just have to tip your hat to your opponent. MSU penetrated and found the open man while our rotations were late. Until we get elite talent and depth (which is hopefully coming) to overcome days like yesterday, we are bound to have games like this. We are not there yet, but better and more enjoyable days are ahead. The nice thing is these days are becoming more the exception than the norm.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Higher opponent 3p% => worse defensive efficiency. Groundbreaking stuff

There is some correlation to quality of looks and 3 point percentage.

 

[fluoxetine]

There is some correlation to quality of looks and 3 point percentage.

Some. There is much much more correlation between quality of looks and number of attempts.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

The issue is our defense has become predictable and good offensive teams can take advantage of it. Jim Jackson mentioned it on the broadcast. Spread the floor, wait for Rutgers to overplay the ball on the perimeter and get the ball to the open man for an open shot.

 

[fluoxetine]

The issue is our defense has become predictable and good offensive teams can take advantage of it. Jim Jackson mentioned it on the broadcast. Spread the floor, wait for Rutgers to overplay the ball on the perimeter and get the ball to the open man for an open shot.

Everyone has known this forever. Everyone (every coach) knows how to beat every defense. It's easier said than done.

 

[KnightLife1994]

Why did we not press them at all? Didnt press enough in the Iowa game as well.

I said it over and over last night why wont we press them. Make them waste time getting the ball up the floor and out of their sets

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Everyone has known this forever. Everyone (every coach) knows how to beat every defense. It's easier said than done.

When we play bad or mediocre offenses, this defense works fine, but high performing offenses get lots of easy shots, and we refuse to change the way we defend when it isn’t working. Why would you continue doing something that is not working?

 

[fluoxetine]

Why did we not press them at all? Didnt press enough in the Iowa game as well.

I said it over and over last night why wont we press them. Make them waste time getting the ball up the floor and out of their sets

We did a few times, but they get the ball in quick and are quick to get up the court. They are difficult to press. (Same with Iowa)

 

[KnightLife1994]

We did a few times, but they get the ball in quick and are quick to get up the court. They are difficult to press. (Same with Iowa)

Fair. Wouldve tried to switch it up more on D. We went to a 3-2 it looked like for a 2 or 3 minute stretch and it got them out of rhythm.

I also said we need to to 1-3-1 or 3-2 and make them beat us inside

 

[fluoxetine]

When we play bad or mediocre offenses, this defense works fine, but high performing offenses get lots of easy shots, and we refuse to change the way we defend when it isn’t working. Why would you continue doing something that is not working?

Because it obviously does work, Pike's teams have been ranked:

#70 (coming off of a year when we were #236 under EJ)
#28
#46
#6
#16
#53
#3

in adjusted defensive efficiency. But yes, they magically figured us out last night, it's all over now, better change strategy

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Some. There is much much more correlation between quality of looks and number of attempts.

I buy that.

Looking at the 4 factors to D
1. Eff FG%
2. TO %
3. DREB %
4. Foul rate

1. As we discussed 3 point% skews
2. This number is down. Largely a function of Pike pressing less
3. Last night definitely not an issue
4. No change

It comes down to 3 pt % (and attempts) and the lower turnover rate.

I’d like to say the eye test has a bunch of our players not having the same spring (Caleb and Cliff to me) in their step, but the eye test often tells us what our hypothesis is

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Why did we not press them at all? Didnt press enough in the Iowa game as well.

I said it over and over last night why wont we press them. Make them waste time getting the ball up the floor and out of their sets

Possibly…..a guess…..Pike wants to get his guys rest. If he doesn’t trust the bench not pressing is the offset.

 

[fluoxetine]

I buy that.

Looking at the 4 factors to D
1. Eff FG%
2. TO %
3. DREB %
4. Foul rate

1. As we discussed 3 point% skews
2. This number is down. Largely a function of Pike pressing less
3. Last night definitely not an issue
4. No change

It comes down to 3 pt % (and attempts) and the lower turnover rate.

I’d like to say the eye test has a bunch of our players not having the same spring (Caleb and Cliff to me) in their step, but the eye test often tells us what our hypothesis is

I mean our defense is a little bit overrated because this thing cuts both ways. But opponents are up to 29.5% on 3p% now so it's starting to get closer to the range of what is achievable realistically long term. We are obviously doing SOME stuff that impacts opponent 3p% (like forcing them into end of shot clock heaves - which are basically the only non-open threes anyone ever takes) but probably not enough to get it down to 29.5%.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Id be curious where and when in the shot clock 3 point attempts have occurred against us.

We went through a stretch at home where there was a ridiculous amount of shot clock violations and 3 point heaves.

I think the slope of 3pt % and quality of attempts has more slope than you are quoting

 

[bac2therac]

saw this on the round table from rufromjersey

nj.com article blurb


The Scarlet Knights defended the perimeter well to start the season, holding non-conference opponents to 23.2% shooting on threes. But that number has steadily slipped as conference play ramped up, with Rutgers allowing Big Ten opponents to shoot 38.2% from outside during conference play, which ranks 10th in the league. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, opponents are shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc against the Scarlet Knights, which ranks 308th nationally.

 

[fluoxetine]

I think the slope of 3pt % and quality of attempts has more slope than you are quoting

It's not that there isn't a slope, it's that the bad quality ones are rarely taken (basically only end of shot clock).

This is NBA, so it's not exactly the same, but:
3p% (very tight) = 28.7%
3p% (tight) = 30.5%
3p% (open) = 35.6%
3p% (wide open) = 39.1%

percentage of attempts:
Very tight 1%
Tight 11%
Open 40%
Wide Open 48%

 

[fluoxetine]

saw this on the round table from rufromjersey

nj.com article blurb


The Scarlet Knights defended the perimeter well to start the season, holding non-conference opponents to 23.2% shooting on threes. But that number has steadily slipped as conference play ramped up, with Rutgers allowing Big Ten opponents to shoot 38.2% from outside during conference play, which ranks 10th in the league. Since the calendar flipped to 2023, opponents are shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc against the Scarlet Knights, which ranks 308th nationally.

You think this supports your arguments but it supports mine. What is more likely? The best three point defending team suddenly became one of the worst? Or there was a lot of random chance involved in both numbers?

 

[RW90]

Another aspect I think folks are minimizing was our putrid offense last night. Teams have a harder time playing inspired defense for stretches once their own shots stop falling. Just like its easier to get the juices flowing in tight games or in front of home crowds. Similarly shots always seem to come easier playing with a lead and house money.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

It's not that there isn't a slope, it's that the bad quality ones are rarely taken (basically only end of shot clock).

This is NBA, so it's not exactly the same, but:
3p% (very tight) = 28.7%
3p% (tight) = 30.5%
3p% (open) = 35.6%
3p% (wide open) = 39.1%

percentage of attempts:
Very tight 1%
Tight 11%
Open 40%
Wide Open 48%

No way very tight is 1% of attempts. I’d think at least 10% of attempts against RU are end of shot clock prayers

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Another aspect I think folks are minimizing was our putrid offense last night. Teams have a harder time playing inspired defense for stretches once their own shots stop falling. Just like it’s easier to get the juices flowing in tight games or in front of home crowds. Similarly shots always seem to come easier playing with a lead and house money.

Offense is a different discussion. Our offense wasn’t much worse than our average last night

 

[bac2therac]

Offense is a different discussion. Our offense wasn’t much worse than our average last night

you mean we arent hitting 11 3s a night, that was fools gold at Northwestern...its why we need to play elite defense which clearly we didnt last night

 

[bac2therac]

You think this supports your arguments but it supports mine. What is more likely? The best three point defending team suddenly became one of the worst? Or there was a lot of random chance involved in both numbers?

do not overthink, once our opponents got better, our defensive percentage went down. Disrupting Central Connecticut is easier than disrupting Michigan State. Sparty was pretty comfortable last night running their offense. For RU to be successsful, that cannot happen.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

you mean we arent hitting 11 3s a night, that was fools gold at Northwestern...its why we need to play elite defense which clearly we didnt last night

Northwestern was one of our worst played games of the year. There were things that should have concerned us watching that game. That was a game RU normally loses by double digits.

11/18 is absolute fools gold.

I am like 99% in flux Camp. Shooting needs to be normalized to really get a sense of how a team played. The debate is how much should the offset be for 3pt % based on perceived perimeter D

If I get back to back Yahtzees that doesn’t mean I am good at Yahtzee.

 

[bethlehemfan]

If we made a couple of shots the d would have been better down the stretch. They got a couple of lucky bounces that resulted in open 3’s. The horrendous turnovers leading to transition. Bottom line if we make a couple of shots doesn’t have to be 11-17 i think it’s a different game. I do agree with bac here in a sense in that I think particularly given the start of the game and I know it’s weird to say but I think we were a little overconfident in our offensive ability and settled too much for the 3 and it hurt us this time.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

do not overthink, once our opponents got better, our defensive percentage went down. Disrupting Central Connecticut is easier than disrupting Michigan State. Sparty was pretty comfortable last night running their offense. For RU to be successsful, that cannot happen.

I do think observing where in the shot clock teams are getting shots is useful in analyzing our defense. I recall only 1 instance where MSU was rushed to put up a shot. In the 1st 10 minutes vs MD every defensive possession it seemed ended in a steal, shot clock violation, or a end of shot clock heave.

 

[fluoxetine]

No way very tight is 1% of attempts. I’d think at least 10% of attempts against RU are end of shot clock prayers

Well that is overall, but even the end of clock prayers are probably more "tight" than "very tight" a lot of the time. Very tight is 0-2 feet of space, people will just move back further rather than take one that is that tightly contested.

But I agree RU probably does better than these percentages usually which is why I do think that some (but far, far from all) of our good 3p% D is actually real.

do not overthink, once our opponents got better, our defensive percentage went down. Disrupting Central Connecticut is easier than disrupting Michigan State. Sparty was pretty comfortable last night running their offense. For RU to be successsful, that cannot happen.

Do not underthink (you are way underthinking) you really think that we went from 1st to 300-somethingth based on changes in how we played and the opponents being better shooters?

Central Connecticut shoots 34.5% from three FYI, which is actually decent. Better than Rutgers but a significant margin.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

but I think we were a little overconfident in our offensive ability and settled too much for the 3 and it hurt us this time.

This fan was.

 

[RUChoppin]

We've largely dared teams to shoot threes, or forced threes late in the shot clock when other offense didn't work, and most have struggled to hit them at a high enough rate to beat us. Iowa and MSU are exceptions.

We are generally happy to give up attempts from 2+ feet back from the line, or as a last resort in the last 3 seconds of the shot clock, or from lower percent shooters make attempts as we dig down into the paint. Usually that results in lower percentages, but sometimes guys hit those shots more often than expected.

 

[fluoxetine]

I do think observing where in the shot clock teams are getting shots is useful in analyzing our defense. I recall only 1 instance where MSU was rushed to put up a shot. In the 1st 10 minutes vs MD every defensive possession it seemed ended in a steal, shot clock violation, or a end of shot clock heave.

There were at least two. One end of shot clock prayer and one where the guy just launched from like 5 feet outside the line. There might have still been 5ish seconds on the clock for that one but it is hard to blame the defense there.

 

[bethlehemfan]

There were at least two. One end of shot clock prayer and one where the guy just launched from like 5 feet outside the line. There might have still been 5ish seconds on the clock for that one but it is hard to blame the defense there.

Hogart was 3-5 and I thought came in shooting 20% if I am not mistaken