ADVERTISEMENT

.500 in 2016-17? Please convince me.

B1GNJHoops

Junior
Dec 10, 2015
882
306
63
I'm having a hard time believing this is a .500 team next season, but others disagree.

Assuming everyone stays, do we add more than one *impact* Big Ten player?

What does the rest of the Big Ten look like? The bottom of the conference will improve based on lack of attrition and strong recruiting.

Why do I ask? Because there is a theory out there that losing one or two players is a disaster and will ruin Pikiell's chance at success.

Did Mullin see a drop in recruiting after an 8-win season? Buzz Williams only won 10 games at Virginia Tech in Year 1.
 
You aren't supposed to be .500 in a build or rebuild. Year 2 we see the signs and Year 3 in the break through.
 
You aren't supposed to be .500 in a build or rebuild. Year 2 we see the signs and Year 3 in the break through.

Too much focus on the importance of Year 1 by some fans.

Why? Does Rutgers winning 8-10 games instead of 12-14 mean more to high major players who already have options to attend UConn, Providence,Louisville, ND, Temple, Cuse, Nova? Not really. So why should Year 1 have anything to do with our thought process?

Recruits will pick us because they trust Pikiell and Co. not because we win a few more games in 16-17.
 
Last edited:
The good news is that next year the top of the B1G doesn't appear to be as strong as this past season.

MSU loses a lot of talent and will have to reload with young guys. Michigan may be the team to beat next year.
 
Last edited:
The good news about 2016-17 is that it will not be 2015-16. We will have a new coach, hopefully a renewed energy from the fans and optimism for the future! That should get us all through the first season!
 
500 is unlikely

next year isnt about wins losses as much as eye test...still its reasonable to set a goal of 13-18/4-14
 
I am an advocate of this

Here is why

Everything here is based on the assumption is NO transfers and we sign the verbals for a 11 man roster and we don't get bitten by injures like we did this past year

Ok

Before the year started I kept saying that we were going to be a painfully good team before the injuries

With the injuries...it became impossible

I think if we didn't have the injuries...we were a young 11-20 team this year.

So...if you accept that..can use see 11-20 turning into 16-15 with experience and more pieces

It's possible...we need to keep everything intact, get healthy and have a major major off season program

I think we have a shot...
 
the problem is it was a 7 win team...so the team psyche is 7 wins...they need to learn how to win and thats going to take a while, they need to break out of the bad habits they learned under Jordan. There are also major major question marks at the center position.

I just think we have no realistic shot....RU would have to win maybe 7 conference games if they went 9-4 OOC..I just dont see it.
 
I am an advocate of this

Here is why

Everything here is based on the assumption is NO transfers and we sign the verbals for a 11 man roster and we don't get bitten by injures like we did this past year

Ok

Before the year started I kept saying that we were going to be a painfully good team before the injuries

With the injuries...it became impossible

I think if we didn't have the injuries...we were a young 11-20 team this year.

So...if you accept that..can use see 11-20 turning into 16-15 with experience and more pieces

It's possible...we need to keep everything intact, get healthy and have a major major off season program

I think we have a shot...

I'm an advocate of this potential trajectory as well.
 
I am an advocate of this

Here is why

Everything here is based on the assumption is NO transfers and we sign the verbals for a 11 man roster and we don't get bitten by injures like we did this past year

Ok

Before the year started I kept saying that we were going to be a painfully good team before the injuries

With the injuries...it became impossible

I think if we didn't have the injuries...we were a young 11-20 team this year.

So...if you accept that..can use see 11-20 turning into 16-15 with experience and more pieces

It's possible...we need to keep everything intact, get healthy and have a major major off season program

I think we have a shot...

Aren't you also the guy who thinks RU can win its football opener on the road at UW? You, sir, are an optimist. Not that there's anything wrong with that! ;)
 
A significant increase in wins will only happen if Rutgers starts scoring around 70 points per game which means more 3 point scoring.Better defense will only help with reducing the margin of loss but won't be the reason for a 13-14 season.Offense matters when you are playing league opponents that have more talent than Rutgers.
 
I think we can exceed .500 if we retain our best players. I guaranty we will be well coached.
 
the problem is it was a 7 win team...so the team psyche is 7 wins...they need to learn how to win and thats going to take a while, they need to break out of the bad habits they learned under Jordan. There are also major major question marks at the center position.

I just think we have no realistic shot....RU would have to win maybe 7 conference games if they went 9-4 OOC..I just dont see it.

Agree with Bac here. Assuming everyone returns and Thiam signs on I can envision a 12-14 win season as the ceiling, along with better competitiveness vs high level opponents. We are dreadfully weak inside and that will impact the effectiveness of Freeman. I can see us playing better because the coaching will be improved. The lack of talent overall will remain a problem.
 
If we retain everyone, and the injured come back healthy, there are reasons for optimism:
1. DEFENSE: We were all shocked by the lack of it going back to Year 1 of Jordan. Pikiell won't stand for it.
2. FUNDAMENTALS: NBA players know them. NBA coaches don't teach them. College coaches do. Pikiell is a college coach. Enough said. I bet FT % will go up.
3. FRONTCOURT: RU played most of last season without one. This year RU figures to at least have one. That has to make a difference.
4. GO TO GUY: Sanders may be a bit of a space cadet, but that's actually a good thing. The guy is fearless, takes the big shot, and craves the spotlight. Always have a puncher's chance with a player like that.
CONCLUSION: Much more competitive. If there's 30 games, I say the under is 14.
 
Reason for optimism that the team might finish .500.

The coaching staff brings in a few one year transfers with the mentality and ethic to work hard. They also strike lightning on a couple under the radar recruits that also are willing to completely sell out effort wise. Somehow the good attitude and habits of the newcomers rubs off on the current crop of players who have a deeply ingrained culture of losing. They get on board and start to work harder themselves. All of these players embrace getting into the weight room to get A LOT stronger physically and they also start showing up at the gym on their own to play all the time they aren't in class or going for tutoring.

If the current players on the roster think that their past practices are good enough and that's how things are done then there is zero chance to finish .500 and they all have to go.
 
Freeman healthy, eligible and starting...

Sanders returning and in shape to play 32 minutes a game

Nigel Johnson and Mike Williams properly slotted in roles.

Add a piece that isn't currently on radar

Add another starting caliber player as a 5th year transfer.

If we are 331st in again in total defense and allow 80+ points to every B1G team, then yes, we will win 7 games.

If we improve to 150th or 100th in total defense (which is really coaching and mindset, then we will be at .500.

It still comes down to not comparing RU to Buzz Williams and athletes at the caliber of what is at Virginia Tech...that's a much tougher conference and a Top 10-15 coach in Buzz Williams.

It also still comes down to coaching and RU with 8 players, including Robert Lumpkins as a 5th year transfer won 14 to 15 games in Mike Rice's first year based on coaching defense, proper scouting and game planning of opponents, self-scouting and proper defensive drills and hard nosed defensive first players in Dane Miller, Mike Coburn and James Beatty.....not to be confused with the offensive skills sets of Sanders, Johnson and potentially another piece added.

If the 2nd verbal materializes as expected and we get a defensive presence on the wing and paint that can alter shots, I don't see any reason why we cannot compete with Minnesota, Illinois, Penn State and Nebraska at the bottom of the league....RU should squeeze out 3 to 5 wins in conference.

I don't know if we will get all the pieces in place but someone I lean on has some concerns about the initial conditioning, strength and stamina of the current team. There is a LOT of self improvement that others have noted about our strength and conditioning and whether players should be winded after a few trips down the court.

Most of RU's issues are self-inflicted vs a lack of talent....it was lack of defense and coaching and of course there will be doubts.....RU will be a consensus last place selection by the media, fans and coaching polls. But that was pretty much what happened during Rice's first year. If we are dialed in and do all the little things that good coaching provides, our defensive stats go way up and our offense, while not free-wheeling, should be the same PPG as last year.

Wake won a couple of ACC games and St. Johns I believe won one or two conference games...I don't know what our schedule looks like but I find it hard to believe we won't improve under Pikiell. With normal coaching and no suspensions/injuries to Freeman and Sanders, RU wins 11 games last year. I don't see this as a jump from 7 to 14-15 wins....I see it as 11 to 14 or 15.....it's a huge leap, but if Mike Rice did it, with less talent offensively, I see no reason why this roster if healthy and another 2 pieces added that are defensive-focused, can't do the same.

On the other hand, don't claim that I'm saying RU can be .500 if you flush out Sanders or Freeman and don't add any tangible pieces this spring. Obviously you need to add to the roster and keep the health of the roster in place. Same thing goes for Ash in football.....the lack of results from strength and conditioning is alarmingly positive and the results will show on the field....better off-season, better preparation and better coaching (attention to detail) means better results.
It
 
  • Like
Reactions: ScarletLongIsland
Sounds like our success in Year 1 is based on Pikiell's attention to defense and conditioning than any one player staying or not staying. Which is why I'm not ready to ring the alarm if anyone transfers due to a coaching change.

I don't get why Laurent would transfer because of an assistant coach. His Dr. Phillips classmate is a football player at Rutgers, he's playing in the Big Ten and he's getting more minutes here than he would get anywhere else at this level.

Freeman's coming back from another knee injury and he's our starting power forward next season. I doubt he wants to sit out another year.
 
Last edited:
Agree with Bac here. Assuming everyone returns and Thiam signs on I can envision a 12-14 win season as the ceiling, along with better competitiveness vs high level opponents. We are dreadfully weak inside and that will impact the effectiveness of Freeman. I can see us playing better because the coaching will be improved. The lack of talent overall will remain a problem.


I think people underestimate how hard it is to move up and win games in the Big 10. The top level of the league may be somewhat down but as we have seen before alot of the top programs are simply reloading. A concern is the bottom teams near RU's level are going to be getting better and some have top classes coming in. Penn State for example has the 2nd best class in the Big 10 and a top 25 class overall. They were around 500 this year and won 6 or so games in league struggling the past several years to get over the hump. I think Northwestern won 7 games last year in league and should only get better. Illinois had a ton of injuries and get those players back plus they have solid foundation. Nebraska waxed RU 3x yet this was a team that finished around 500 with 6 or 7 league wins. These programs all have a heads up on talent on RU right now.

its a tough slog up the ladder. I am assuming next year is another schedule shuffle so how that breaks down could impact what goes down. Obviously getting Minnesota and Penn State 2x is better than drawing Maryland and Michigan State 2x
 
If we retain everyone, and the injured come back healthy, there are reasons for optimism:
1. DEFENSE: We were all shocked by the lack of it going back to Year 1 of Jordan. Pikiell won't stand for it.
2. FUNDAMENTALS: NBA players know them. NBA coaches don't teach them. College coaches do. Pikiell is a college coach. Enough said. I bet FT % will go up.
3. FRONTCOURT: RU played most of last season without one. This year RU figures to at least have one. That has to make a difference.
4. GO TO GUY: Sanders may be a bit of a space cadet, but that's actually a good thing. The guy is fearless, takes the big shot, and craves the spotlight. Always have a puncher's chance with a player like that.
CONCLUSION: Much more competitive. If there's 30 games, I say the under is 14.

I put it at 13.5 (total) an 4.5 (conference) but that still might be high. Vegas would come in lower absolutely no question in my mind.
 
The problem with saying the team has a 12 win "ceiling" is that you are basically saying the team will win 7-9 games OOC and therefore 3-5 in conference. Once you acknowledge the can and likely will win several conference games, there is no way you can argue that the ceiling is 12 wins. First, you are likely to play a couple of those bottom feeder teams that you acknowledge we can beat 2 times. Why can't we beat them twice? Also, there is not that much of a difference, between the middle and bottom of the conference. If one of the 3-4 league wins you think we can get is against let's say a "middle-tier" team, well then that also proves we have at least a chance of beating that caliber of team. So what people should really be saying when they predict a 10-13 type win range is that they think that is what we will end up with due to law of averages and the fact that you won't win every close game. You can't argue it's the "ceiling". Those calling for around .500 as an optimistic scenario are simply acknowledging these facts.
 
Bac

You nailed my number one concern...learning to win

Big concern...think we have a shot Bedause the backcourt...but it is a process

I would like us to dumb down the early schedule to win games...confidence breeds confidence
 
if the rest of the team stays together, we have a great shot. I think R guards are really good. Out centers will be finally healthy but we need 1 more and our Forwards will be healthier and a year older. This team is athletic and will finally play defense. Think we will surprise people. It all starts with attitude, work ethic and a desire not to lose not just a game but every time we have the ball or play defense. WIN
 
  • Like
Reactions: ScarletLongIsland
The problem with saying the team has a 12 win "ceiling" is that you are basically saying the team will win 7-9 games OOC and therefore 3-5 in conference. Once you acknowledge the can and likely will win several conference games, there is no way you can argue that the ceiling is 12 wins. First, you are likely to play a couple of those bottom feeder teams that you acknowledge we can beat 2 times. Why can't we beat them twice? Also, there is not that much of a difference, between the middle and bottom of the conference. If one of the 3-4 league wins you think we can get is against let's say a "middle-tier" team, well then that also proves we have at least a chance of beating that caliber of team. So what people should really be saying when they predict a 10-13 type win range is that they think that is what we will end up with due to law of averages and the fact that you won't win every close game. You can't argue it's the "ceiling". Those calling for around .500 as an optimistic scenario are simply acknowledging these facts.


who are the bottom feeders. Rutgers is the bottom feeder....Rutgers is the least talented team in the conference...all these other schools have even more talent coming back or coming in. Middle tier teams? who are they..that was Ohio State and Northwestern. Nebraska ripped RU 3x yet they were 500 overall and only I think 6 wins in league. The 500 premise is based on some absolute best case scenerio where RU overacheives greatly and wins every swing game.
 
Bac

You nailed my number one concern...learning to win

Big concern...think we have a shot Bedause the backcourt...but it is a process

I would like us to dumb down the early schedule to win games...confidence breeds confidence


thats true...i would like to see an easy OOC schedule this year. Northwestern did that this year yet they only won I think 7 league games despite going 12-1 OOC
 
If we made foul shots we might have won three more games. Illinois and the Johnnies off the top of my head.
 
who are the bottom feeders. Rutgers is the bottom feeder....Rutgers is the least talented team in the conference...all these other schools have even more talent coming back or coming in. Middle tier teams? who are they..that was Ohio State and Northwestern. Nebraska ripped RU 3x yet they were 500 overall and only I think 6 wins in league. The 500 premise is based on some absolute best case scenerio where RU overacheives greatly and wins every swing game.
Bac...you are kind of talking past my point. I'm just saying I always find it silly to predict a "ceiling". If you think they can win a few big 10 games, then there is always the possibility they win a few more if thing's break the right way. I also don't believe in the term overachieving. You are what your record says you are. If you predict Rutgers will win 12 games next year, then you are basically saying there is, let's say, a 15% chance they win 15 games. Also a 15% chance they win 9 games, etc.
 
A good year would be everybody 10lbs stronger and playing defense. Freeman is an x-factor. I have no other expectations other than coach work hard to make the OOC schedule easier in years 2,3,4, and so on.
 
This board is always so off with their predictions. Last year I saw 9 wins, everyone saw more. Next year should be a .500 team if everyone is back. That was my expectation if Jordan were back or this new guy. It shows some of you truly didn't understand what a physical and mental beating this team took by playing with .5 big man all year. If this coach is decent that's what we should see.
 
the team is starting from 7 wins, you cant ignore that and say if they didnt have injuries they will have more....every team has injuries, there will be injuries this year as well. There has been no evidence from a program that has lost 39 of 46 games that it knows how to win...thats why 500 is extremely unlikely Pikiell needs to work with these guys and change attitude and teach them things they werent learning. It will happen and all come together but seems like some are setting themselves up for more disappointment
 
The problem with saying the team has a 12 win "ceiling" is that you are basically saying the team will win 7-9 games OOC and therefore 3-5 in conference. Once you acknowledge the can and likely will win several conference games, there is no way you can argue that the ceiling is 12 wins. First, you are likely to play a couple of those bottom feeder teams that you acknowledge we can beat 2 times. Why can't we beat them twice? Also, there is not that much of a difference, between the middle and bottom of the conference. If one of the 3-4 league wins you think we can get is against let's say a "middle-tier" team, well then that also proves we have at least a chance of beating that caliber of team. So what people should really be saying when they predict a 10-13 type win range is that they think that is what we will end up with due to law of averages and the fact that you won't win every close game. You can't argue it's the "ceiling". Those calling for around .500 as an optimistic scenario are simply acknowledging these facts.
In predicting wins I start with a basic premise that Rutgers probably will lose all league road games.History has shown starting with the Big East and moving forward to the present Rutgers simply has a woeful road record.To have so many games result in the lost column its difficult to reach 14-15 wins.Its simple math.
 
I like the case that NJ Hawk makes, i really want to buy in to it. BAC's scenario, unfortunately, is the base case.
 
Want them to be healthy, went to games and not a joke I hoped no one got in foul trouble.
 
I think .500 is a pipe dream. However, improvement can be discerned in other ways. If our defensive and rebounding stats improve, you'll know things are moving in the right direction, especially 3 point defense. Most of us know what good basketball looks like. Stats don't lie (in this case)
 
Let's revisit this in a month or two, it would be best suited to give the staff a chance to get assembled and organized. We are taking the easy route of writing teams off, which is what happened to Purdue two years ago after they lost 3 starters via transfer and they bounced back nicely.

Some other items to consider are what type of impact we get from Nigel Johnson. I would never place an emphasis that one player is worth 3 to 4 games, but honestly, if he played this past year, we beat Wake, SJU, Illinois and at least one other game....

We are adding another playmaker on offense and improved defense....doesn't mean it clicks from Day one, but defense is taught in drills and with players with footspeed. The recruiting targets are already identifying this gap.
 
Bac...you are kind of talking past my point. I'm just saying I always find it silly to predict a "ceiling". If you think they can win a few big 10 games, then there is always the possibility they win a few more if thing's break the right way. I also don't believe in the term overachieving. You are what your record says you are. If you predict Rutgers will win 12 games next year, then you are basically saying there is, let's say, a 15% chance they win 15 games. Also a 15% chance they win 9 games, etc.

These early predictions don't mean much except allowing guys to talk, interesting but meaningless. The final roster is far from being set, we have no ideal what about the style of play, no idea how much guys will improve.

Maybe Williams stops rushing his shots and shoots 42% from 3, Bullock comes in and becomes a good spot up shooter, Foreman stops forcing shots and finally learns to pick his spots and finishes strong, maybe Foreman works to improve his lateral movement. Maybe Sanders gets stronger so that he can finish more shots in the lane.

I can say this.....Rutgers may beat OSU twice next year with their 4 transfers....who's predicting that? Lol
 
Last edited:
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT