Finally, under 100,,,moving in the right direction!
#94 in KenPom
- Thread starter 4theknights
- Start date
Segarin is becoming more accurate and we are now at # 61. Moving on up sounds good to me.
Last time we were under 100...........don't ask what happened next.
Ratings by site, grouped into 1-25, 26-50, 51-75, 76-100:
Kenpom
5 - Michigan
9 - Michigan St
13 - Wisconsin
14 - Purdue
21 - Nebraska
22 - Ohio St
26 - Indiana
32 - Maryland
38 - PA St
41 - Iowa
46 - Northwestern
55 - Minnesota
91 - Illinois
94 - Rutgers
Sagarin
3 - Michigan
4 - Michigan St
11 - Nebraska
13 - Wisconsin
15 - Purdue
16 - Ohio St
17 - Indiana
39 - Maryland
51 - Northwestern
53 - Iowa
55 - PA St
61 - Rutgers
63 - Minnesota
87 - Illinois
Kenpom
5 - Michigan
9 - Michigan St
13 - Wisconsin
14 - Purdue
21 - Nebraska
22 - Ohio St
26 - Indiana
32 - Maryland
38 - PA St
41 - Iowa
46 - Northwestern
55 - Minnesota
91 - Illinois
94 - Rutgers
Sagarin
3 - Michigan
4 - Michigan St
11 - Nebraska
13 - Wisconsin
15 - Purdue
16 - Ohio St
17 - Indiana
39 - Maryland
51 - Northwestern
53 - Iowa
55 - PA St
61 - Rutgers
63 - Minnesota
87 - Illinois
downright scary.....at least the home game against Minnesota has flipped so we are now favored in 1 B1G game.
Rutgers is clearly improved this year. Unfortunately if you are going to judge by conference success it will be tougher to tell because the Big Ten as a whole is much tougher overall than last season. There will probably be twice as many conference teams in the NCAA tourney this year.
Kenpom doesn't allow for teams to move up, if they are showing improvement OR they don't allow teams to be moved down, if their early season performances don't add up. It's almost like Kenpom is waiting for certain teams to eventually adjust to where he graded them prior to the season and reluctant to change that.
It is meaningless at this point, since there's not enough relevant data to evaluate RU before Wisconsin and after Wisconsin. Is this a matchup based performance OR are the performances from Shaq Carter and Caleb McConnell outliers??
The faster RU gets Harper and Mathis on track is when a lot of this becomes easier to grade. Both have not played nearly enough to grade RU's upside properly.
It is meaningless at this point, since there's not enough relevant data to evaluate RU before Wisconsin and after Wisconsin. Is this a matchup based performance OR are the performances from Shaq Carter and Caleb McConnell outliers??
The faster RU gets Harper and Mathis on track is when a lot of this becomes easier to grade. Both have not played nearly enough to grade RU's upside properly.
Northwestern (at home) and Iowa (at home) are in the high 40% range of winning %. They could flip to favored with a little bit more improvement.
I firmly believe that Jacob Young will provide the fast guard that we need. I keep thinking how we could press with Young and Mathis together on the floor. We also will have Mulcahy who can really pass the ball. It is a shame though that we have to wait a year for those 2 guys but I am enjoying the ride this season. It is fun to be in the conversation again. It wasn't too long ago that we were around # 200 or worse in these rating services. We must appreciate all that our coaches have done for us.
WTF are you talking about? Rutgers was ranked #149 in preseason on KenPom and has moved up 55 spots to #94. That is a massive improvement.
Also it's hard to call a computer reluctant to change when it's based on nothing more than formulas.
Kenpom uses prior season data to generate its preseason rankings, and continues using it through the third week of January. Its influence on the data diminishes through that time, but it gives teams some early season inertia to overcome during OOC play. I don't know how much (if at all) Sagarin uses prior season data.
Sagarin uses no preseason data. That's why the first sets of rankings are so bizarre. I believe he had Nebraska #1 after 2 games when they had an average margin of victory of > 60 points.
To still have Nebraska at #11 should tell you these rankings don’t have enough data points yet.
Do you just show up here to bash Nebraska? Every post is anti Nebraska. With that attitude you should become a Rutgers fan. You would fit in nicely with that attitude
Agreed. Plus we have 2 more conference games this year at 20, which makes a better record even harder to achieve.
No, ha, I'm a diehard NU fan but also not blind to all the hype for a team that hasn't done anything. These rankings are fun to discuss but really mean nothing yet.
You tell me, if you have watched NU play this year, do they look like the #11 team in the country? I think not but maybe I am to used to them having some expectations and watching them go 8-3,259,354,247.
There are some teams that I believe are ranked off of reputation as well so none of them really mean much right now to me.
[laughing] @huskersalways is just as hard on his wrestling team. He strives for excellence in his programs and when he doesn't see it, lets you know what he thinks about it without the sugar coating. We here at Rutgers only strive for mediocrity because we've been horrid for so long, mediocrity would feel like excellence.
depends which you are looking at. The KenPom rankings have an extremely tight correlation with the Vegas point spread which indicates they have real meaning. Now are the deterministic? Of course not. Nobody would argue that. But they do have meaning and predictive value.
I dont care about Vegas lines. I am talking about ratings teams from top to bottom on ability and what they have done so far. Never was a kenpom fan ever
I don't see why every fan for a school should not demand success. All schools not just Nebraska, or Bama, or OSU spend huge amounts of money on sports that seem to be allowed to flounder their way through. Demanding excellence for something that costs millions of dollars annually should be the minimum requirement. I don't, nor should any donor condone moral victories and to a certain extent the excuses of "we are young", "we are learning but not there yet", ect are a bunch of crap to me. Take NU football this year. It's a $70mil dollar business that sucked on the field. That is not exceptable and better be corrected next year. They(NU) want another $100mil to redo some of the football facilities which displaces the track and field team so they have to build all new for them, which is another program that has been declining for the last few years. They also want about $250mil to tear out the South stadium and put an entire new one in(it needs it). But I'm suppose to write checks for this without demanding some results? Not going to happen from this guy. I am tough on the teams but they also are given every single thing from to make them successful.
I will gladly donate to them if I see a pattern of success. Teams are going to loose games, I understand that. But don't ask me for anything when you are getting your ass stomped with some of the best resources in the game. Success isn't necessarily winning every game but it's been to long for the investment at NU to not have success in all sports.
The wrestling team you mention got a new $20mil practice and training set up about 4 years ago but yet the program, while it hasn't stunk, seems to be spinning it's wheels.
The hoops teams got over $200mil spent for them to loose in the first round of the NIT? That isn't going to cut it with me.
So yes, I am hard on them. But I also write enough checks to have an opinion. Ha
Hi Art,
Have you seen Mulcahy and Young play? If so , I'd like your thoughts on them.
Vegas and KenPom rate teams based on how good they are likely to play going forward. If that has no meaning to you, well that’s clearly up to you. What they don’t tend to do is care about resume (wins and losses) because those tend to be have a lot of luck involved.
Yeah, I think part of the problem being noted is that Kenpom still has baked in assumptions until mid-January that dont necessarily correlate to this years team. That's why if your team has moved up 50 spots in Kenpom right now, the current year inputs generally are much higher than even the new ranking.
Not that prior years assumptions are meaningless, and obviously that's why theres the Vegas correlation
Jon, I have been to 7 RU practices. On 2 of them Jacob Young looked like he might be the top player on the team. He is very quick, can play very good defense and can hit the 3. I have seen Paul Mulcahy play 7 or 8 times. He is now even stronger. He is very good and is unselfish and can really pass the ball. He also can take it hard to the rim. Both guys could really help us next year. I can see young and Mathis really creating problems on a press or on any defense.
I did see Young at a practice and no doubt he was the quickest player on the floor. He reminded me of Cory with his speed. Good to hear Knights 1212 assessment of Young/Mulcahy helping the team next year. We will so deep and quick at guard that Pike can pull out a full or 3 qtr press out of his tool belt.
Thank you Art....I respect your opinion and am truly excited about the path of this program. Pikiell is the real deal . What really jumps out now when watching Rutgers play is that , unlike past years, there appears to be very little separating Rutgers from the top Big Ten programs when comparing talent levels. In the past it was noticeable , but not now. The team is more talented and much deeper.
Our Kenpom is going to drop throughout December because 3 of the next 4 opponents rankings are lower than expected. It won't matter if the wins are close or not close.
I am looking forward to Fordham for our freshman on the road. The team has taken on a different approach it seems on the road but this will be the one situation where the home team is looking at the visitor as a benchmark. I don't know how Kenpom accounts for road wins...getting another road win may help.
I am looking forward to Fordham for our freshman on the road. The team has taken on a different approach it seems on the road but this will be the one situation where the home team is looking at the visitor as a benchmark. I don't know how Kenpom accounts for road wins...getting another road win may help.
Our kenpom only will drop, holding what our opponents and their opponents do constant, if we beat the kenpom spread.
Kenpom doesn’t care who you beat. If we go 0-20 and lose all games by 6 our rating goes higher.
Kenpom rather us go 1-4 and win by 70 in our victory than go 5-0 in close games.
Kenpom doesn’t care who you beat. If we go 0-20 and lose all games by 6 our rating goes higher.
Kenpom rather us go 1-4 and win by 70 in our victory than go 5-0 in close games.
Not necessarily true. If we outperform the model's projections we'll rise. Nebraska started the year 38th and rose to 33rd by destroying Mississippi Valley State and Southeastern Louisiana. San Francisco went from 107 to 95 after a 43-point win over Maine.
How much does Kenprom rely on their preseason rankings in their model? It seems like a lot to me. You would think 1/4 way into the season they wouldn't need them anymore.
Look at RU v Ill, almost the same and they are 2-7. Tough schedule for sure, but one of the wins is against a team that is 1-7. they can't be just using actual results to come up with that ranking.
I think that's a big flaw in a lot of these models. Basing a lot on expectations and not results.
Look at RU v Ill, almost the same and they are 2-7. Tough schedule for sure, but one of the wins is against a team that is 1-7. they can't be just using actual results to come up with that ranking.
I think that's a big flaw in a lot of these models. Basing a lot on expectations and not results.
From their methodology, their preseason ranking is based on prior year - and they slowly wean the model off prior year data until they no longer use it at all around the third week of January. So right now, kenpom is weighting last year's performance at >50% of their overall model, I'd think.
I share your viewpoints.A sense of urgency to win has been lacking for many Rutgers teams..Playing in a power conference like the B1G there is no place to hide and very few easy wins.It takes the right combination of recruiting and player development to achieve success .To his credit Hobbs has received funding to upgrade facilities which hopefully enhance recruiting .long suffering fans need to see winning teams to match the support that has been provided in season tickets and annual contributions.
That would explain it. Guess it's not really useful at this point in the season.
No rankings are really useful at this point in the season. A model that doesn't take into account any prior season data would rate a win over Duke and a win over NJIT the same in the first week - and takes several weeks and thousands of games before the algorithms start really sorting out strength of schedule.
Early season computer model rankings are really just fun conversation points - as are human rankings, fwiw, but at least those have a little bit more "eye test" thrown in (along with inherent biases, too). Once conference play starts in earnest, we'll have a better idea of where things stand.
