A look back and forward- We are so close!

[bowlgoal]

Finally, a coach who started with nothing and came to Rutgers with a plan is on track to achieving results heading into year 4. If you look at the results of this year and the level of the big 10, it’s easy to see how a .500 record would have put Rutgers into the NIT. With 10-14 teams in post season and 8 of those NCAA bound, we were right on the edge up until the last few games where we ran out of gas and lost a few tight ones to penn state and Iowa. In addition to the 10 teams who made post season from the big 10, we also played two other teams in the NCAA in seton hall and FDU, albeit crushing FDU. We beat ncaa teams Iowa (almost twice) Minnesota and Ohio State and beat a top seeded Indiana team (top seeded in the NIT) and Nebraska. And let’s not forget the some of the bottom big 10 losses against teams like Illinois; who is very tough and we lost on the road in overtime. And penn state,who was flying high coming into the RAC and barely escaped with a one point win.


I was not expecting post season coming into the season. I thought it would be a fun transition year watching our players grow and it was that and more. We were actually playing meaningful basketball in March with hopes of post season. We had one throw away game this year versus Purdue and that can happen. The Maryland game was also disappointing but we just didn’t match up well against them and they got hot. We actually played very well against Michigan, MSU and Wisconsin.


The future looks extremely bright and getting one or two players to add to the roster can put us over the top. I think post season next year is not only going to happen but I’m dreaming bigger dreams.

 

[Plum Street]

We are . But remember the roster is thin. If we have an injury, suspension or transfer to one of our star players the team will still stink . The front line guys are good enough to make a tournament run in the next 2 years, but we we need some good fortune too.

 

[ScarletKid2008]

In many people's educated eyes .. we were a tip in vs PSU away from making the NIT

 

[bowlgoal]

We are . But remember the roster is thin. If we have an injury, suspension or transfer to one of our star players the team will still stink . The front line guys are good enough to make a tournament run in the next 2 years, but we we need some good fortune too.

How do you view the roster as being thin and who would you see transferring? I realize injuries are always a concern but I see this team as being as loaded as any other team we’ve ever had; probably by a wide margin.

The loss of Thiam isn’t a big loss although it sucks for him. I don’t know what Doucore plans to do but besides being a big body, he really hasn’t shown he cam be productive at this level and if I was him I would ask for a transfer to a lower level program.

My hope is that things fall into place and Massoud comes home and we can find another center or PF who can help the front line. If doucore was to leave, we could also improve as he’s the only weak spot I see at the moment.

I will add one thing. I’ve watched a boat load of games this year and the good teams who win, do not miss free throws. I don’t get why a shooter like Montez struggled so much but that has to be corrected. We sink our free throws and many losses are wins.

 

[willisneverrana43]

. . . The future looks extremely bright and getting one or two players to add to the roster can put us over the top. . . . .

I'm not sure what constitutes over the top. But to become a league contender and contender to make the NCAAs RU needs at least two players who are not add-ons but instead will be our best players. We have improved and stocked a roster full of viable players. But we are lacking high-end offensive talent. Now, some of that might develop. But maybe not. There's a reason that we've been last, last and twelfth, and Pike has to continue to upgrade talent. That will still take some time, so I don't agree that we are right on the edge.

 

[Plum Street]

How do you view the roster as being thin and who would you see transferring? I realize injuries are always a concern but I see this team as being as loaded as any other team we’ve ever had; probably by a wide margin.

The loss of Thiam isn’t a big loss although it sucks for him. I don’t know what Doucore plans to do but besides being a big body, he really hasn’t shown he cam be productive at this level and if I was him I would ask for a transfer to a lower level program.

My hope is that things fall into place and Massoud comes home and we can find another center or PF who can help the front line. If doucore was to leave, we could also improve as he’s the only weak spot I see at the moment.

I will add one thing. I’ve watched a boat load of games this year and the good teams who win, do not miss free throws. I don’t get why a shooter like Montez struggled so much but that has to be corrected. We sink our free throws and many losses are wins.

If one of our main guys goes down next year , Eugene, Myles, geo etc , we are not making the ncaa tournament and probably not the nit tournament .

 

[dkostus]

I'm not sure what constitutes over the top. But to become a league contender and contender to make the NCAAs RU needs at least two players who are not add-ones but instead will be our best players. We have improved and stocked a roster full of viable players. But we are lacking high-end offensive talent. Now, some of that might develop. But maybe not. There's a reason that we've been last, last and twelfth, and Pike has to continue to upgrade talent. That will still take some time, so I don't agree that we are right on the edge.

Technically last, last, tenth. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I think that Harper and Mathis can develop into top level offensive talent. If Mathis just became an average free throw shooter it would immensely help, given how much contact he creates.

 

[bowlgoal]

. . . The future looks extremely bright and getting one or two players to add to the roster can put us over the top. . . . .

I'm not sure what constitutes over the top. But to become a league contender and contender to make the NCAAs RU needs at least two players who are not add-ones but instead will be our best players. We have improved and stocked a roster full of viable players. But we are lacking high-end offensive talent. Now, some of that might develop. But maybe not. There's a reason that we've been last, last and twelfth, and Pike has to continue to upgrade talent. That will still take some time, so I don't agree that we are right on the edge.

Yeah, when I say over the top, I’m embellishing a little. I’m not saying we are ready to win the conference. I’m talking about getting to a winning season with a chance to make the tournament. We need another big time shooter and Massoud would help. There are also some grad transfers out there so instead of Massoud plus a big; we could rent a player for 2019 and go after two bigs in 2020.

I know we still have work to do but the one year of playing time we got this year as a team will also help with our growth. It going to be interesting to see how Pikell divides the playing time, especially with so many guards

 

[kcg88]

Conference-only efficiency margin:

Michigan State 15.9
Purdue 12.1
Michigan 11.2
Wisconsin 7.6
Maryland 4.2
Penn State -1.8
Iowa -2.3
Minnesota -2.9
Ohio State -4.7
Indiana -4.9
Illinois -6.3
Rutgers -8.0
Nebraska -8.7
Northwestern -9.6

Definitely a step forward. Our numbers in the Big Ten before this season were -18, -15.7, -27.9, and -18.9.

Probably need to get to the -2 to -4 range to be talking about a tournament team (and obviously need the OOC resume) given the strength of the conference is likely to regress to the mean.

 

[willisneverrana43]

Technically last, last, tenth. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I think that Harper and Mathis can develop into top level offensive talent. . . . .

They might. My concern is their shooting, particularly 3-point shooting. It was bad this year. In that area, they need massive improvement, which is by no means a sure thing. I'm not even sure that it's likely. But they did show promise.

 

[kcg88]

Harper was 34% in league play. McConnell was 41%. Geo was 33%.

Omoruyi was brutal (14%) and pretty much stopped shooting them after December. I hope he gets back to making them because having a guy like him who can extend defenses out makes a big big difference.

Kiss was 28%, definitely need better from him.

Mathis was 26% and I'm honestly shocked it's that high given his form. He needs a shooting makeover more than anybody on the team.

 

[bac2therac]

sometimes the last step up the ladder from .500 type team to NCAA contender is the most difficult step...ask Pat Chambers

 

[willisneverrana43]

Harper was 34% in league play. McConnell was 41%. Geo was 33%.

Omoruyi was brutal (14%) and pretty much stopped shooting them after December. I hope he gets back to making them because having a guy like him who can extend defenses out makes a big big difference.

Kiss was 28%, definitely need better from him.

Mathis was 26% and I'm honestly shocked it's that high given his form. He needs a shooting makeover more than anybody on the team.

Here are the actual numbers for the year:

Harper: 27.8%
Mathis: 23.9%

You also inflated numbers of a player that I wasn't even addressing, McConnell, who shot 35.7% for the year. As far as Omoruyi, he doesn't need to "get[] back to making" three-point shots. He essentially never has. He did not hit a single one last year. And this year he was 6 for 7 in the first two games against Drexel and FDU and, otherwise, was bad. It's not his game, nor should he try to make it his game.

I'm sure you can adopt a justification for not viewing the whole year and just the league schedule, but in doing that you miss the inescapable fact that we are not a good shooting team. RU was 316th in the country. Mathis and Harper were part of that. To become effective, viable long-range shooters from the 2 or 3, they need to have massive improvement.

 

[kcg88]

Here are the actual numbers for the year:

Harper: 27.8%
Mathis: 23.9%

You also inflated numbers of a player that I wasn't even addressing, McConnell, who shot 35.7% for the year. As far as Omoruyi, he doesn't need to "get[] back to making" three-point shots. He essentially never has. He did not hit a single one last year. And this year he was 6 for 7 in the first two games against Drexel and FDU and, otherwise, was bad. It's not his game, nor should he try to make it his game.

I'm sure you can adopt a justification for not viewing the whole year and just the league schedule, but in doing that you miss the inescapable fact that we are not a good shooting team. RU was 316th in the country. Mathis and Harper were part of that. To become effective, viable long-range shooters from the 2 or 3, they need to have massive improvement.

If you've read my posts here you'll know that I by no means think our team is good at shooting. Heck my post earlier in this thread was meant to show that, measured by efficiency (which is a component of the NET) we were 12th in the conference. Maybe not as close as our record indicates.

However I think the shooting will continue to improve next season. Harper came in with a reputation as a shooter and I think the 34% mark is pretty indicative of how he can shoot. McConnell meanwhile probably won't hit 41% but he's a quality shooter.

And Eugene started the year 6-7 then finished 8-38. So it's definitely some wishful thinking but we heard coming into the season that he had developed the shot and it really looked true in the first two games. I brought him up because having him shoot like Teske or Wesson would be a big deal.

 

[BillyC80]

I don’t mind seeing stats on how each player performed in league play, especially since our last 19 games of the season were all league games and we had 4 key freshmen adapting to college ball during the OOC portion of our schedule.

 

[willisneverrana43]

If you've read my posts here you'll know that I by no means think our team is good at shooting. Heck my post earlier in this thread was meant to show that, measured by efficiency (which is a component of the NET) we were 12th in the conference. Maybe not as close as our record indicates.

However I think the shooting will continue to improve next season. Harper came in with a reputation as a shooter and I think the 34% mark is pretty indicative of how he can shoot. McConnell meanwhile probably won't hit 41% but he's a quality shooter.

And Eugene started the year 6-7 then finished 8-38. So it's definitely some wishful thinking but we heard coming into the season that he had developed the shot and it really looked true in the first two games. I brought him up because having him shoot like Teske or Wesson would be a big deal.

I'm just reacting to the numbers that you chose to argue with. As to Harper, your second paragraph comes off as hopefulness, which is fine. Again, I'll take his overall numbers not a cherry-picked subset and things you heard as better indicators of reality. Same thing with your third paragraph and Omo. "We heard coming into the season that he had developed the shot." Well, that should teach you something about relying on "we heard" stuff. "We heard" that about a lot of players. "We hear" that almost every off-season about some player. And then the season starts. In the end, the team shot horribly this year and, if we are relying on the same players to change that, well, they need to make massive shooting improvements. Setting aside what "we hear," that's not usually how it goes. But we were young, and young players have more opportunity to improve than older players. I'd feel much better, though, if the effort to improve involved adding at least 2 new players with better, established shooting skills.

 

[richthedentist]

How do you view the roster as being thin and who would you see transferring? I realize injuries are always a concern but I see this team as being as loaded as any other team we’ve ever had; probably by a wide margin.

The loss of Thiam isn’t a big loss although it sucks for him. I don’t know what Doucore plans to do but besides being a big body, he really hasn’t shown he cam be productive at this level and if I was him I would ask for a transfer to a lower level program.

My hope is that things fall into place and Massoud comes home and we can find another center or PF who can help the front line. If doucore was to leave, we could also improve as he’s the only weak spot I see at the moment.

I will add one thing. I’ve watched a boat load of games this year and the good teams who win, do not miss free throws. I don’t get why a shooter like Montez struggled so much but that has to be corrected. We sink our free throws and many losses are wins.

Two things I don't think Doucore is leaving and don't count him out as this redshirt year was needed last year and he has had another year to work with Jay Young; Number 2 Montez is not a shooter he is a slasher he needs to improve his shooting to improve his game and become a top player

 

[bowlgoal]

How do you view the roster as being thin and who would you see transferring? I realize injuries are always a concern but I see this team as being as loaded as any other team we’ve ever had; probably by a wide margin.

The loss of Thiam isn’t a big loss although it sucks for him. I don’t know what Doucore plans to do but besides being a big body, he really hasn’t shown he cam be productive at this level and if I was him I would ask for a transfer to a lower level program.

My hope is that things fall into place and Massoud comes home and we can find another center or PF who can help the front line. If doucore was to leave, we could also improve as he’s the only weak spot I see at the moment.

I will add one thing. I’ve watched a boat load of games this year and the good teams who win, do not miss free throws. I don’t get why a shooter like Montez struggled so much but that has to be corrected. We sink our free throws and many losses are wins.

Two things I don't think Doucore is leaving and don't count him out as this redshirt year was needed last year and he has had another year to work with Jay Young; Number 2 Montez is not a shooter he is a slasher he needs to improve his shooting to improve his game and become a top player

Montez can shoot. Eugene is not a shooter. I think you’ll see Montez can shoot and hit the 3 ball with some consistency. Don’t forget, this was his first year so he’s adjusting to a whole new speed. Now, you could say the same for Doucore since he redshirted but to me, he is missing something. Montez showed it immediately and will only get better. Maybe Jay can help Douc figure it out?

Let’s put it this way? If you were the staff, do you want him back or would you help him and encourage him to step down a level? I would try to help him and I don’t think staying at Rutgers is the best solution for either party.

 

[willisneverrana43]

Montez can shoot. Eugene is not a shooter. I think you’ll see Montez can shoot and hit the 3 ball with some consistency. Don’t forget, this was his first year so he’s adjusting to a whole new speed. Now, you could say the same for Doucore since he redshirted but to me, he is missing something. Montez showed it immediately and will only get better. Maybe Jay can help Douc figure it out?

Let’s put it this way? If you were the staff, do you want him back or would you help him and encourage him to step down a level? I would try to help him and I don’t think staying at Rutgers is the best solution for either party.

Montez can shoot? That's it? OK, all evidence so far to the contrary. I'm not even sure that he was considered a shooter coming out of HS.

On Dourcoure, Pike is already talking about him contributing next year after a medical redshirt this year.

 

[bowlgoal]

Montez can shoot. Eugene is not a shooter. I think you’ll see Montez can shoot and hit the 3 ball with some consistency. Don’t forget, this was his first year so he’s adjusting to a whole new speed. Now, you could say the same for Doucore since he redshirted but to me, he is missing something. Montez showed it immediately and will only get better. Maybe Jay can help Douc figure it out?

Let’s put it this way? If you were the staff, do you want him back or would you help him and encourage him to step down a level? I would try to help him and I don’t think staying at Rutgers is the best solution for either party.

Montez can shoot? That's it? OK, all evidence so far to the contrary. I'm not even sure that he was considered a shooter coming out of HS.

On Dourcoure, Pike is already talking about him contributing next year after a medical redshirt this year.

Yes, Montez can shoot in my opinion. He can also drive to the hoop.

 

[willisneverrana43]

You're certainly entitled to an opinion.

I agree that Montez has shown the talent to drive to the hoop. And that's an area that also needs improvement, but improvement that I think he can make. He was very effective at it earlier in the year. Later in the year, when team's keyed on it, he had more and more instances of charging to the hole and getting stuffed or turning over the ball. I expect that he'll learn to be more judicious, pull up, dish the ball, draw fouls, and other things that will allow him to be more effecting driving to the hoop even when the other team is ready for it. Of course, as he draws fouls, he'll have to improve his FT shooting (a terrible 56%), which was bad and another indicator of the problems he has shooting.

 

[RU-ROCS]

I don’t mind seeing stats on how each player performed in league play, especially since our last 19 games of the season were all league games and we had 4 key freshmen adapting to college ball during the OOC portion of our schedule.

Agreed. I think using the league-play only stats provide a better assessment of the freshmen after an initial period adjusting to the college game (albeit against competition mostly inferior to Big 10). These stats are a better indicator of how the freshman will do next year.

 

[bowlgoal]

You're certainly entitled to an opinion.

I agree that Montez has shown the talent to drive to the hoop. And that's an area that also needs improvement, but improvement that I think he can make. He was very effective at it earlier in the year. Later in the year, when team's keyed on it, he had more and more instances of charging to the hole and getting stuffed or turning over the ball. I expect that he'll learn to be more judicious, pull up, dish the ball, draw fouls, and other things that will allow him to be more effecting driving to the hoop even when the other team is ready for it. Of course, as he draws fouls, he'll have to improve his FT shooting (a terrible 56%), which was bad and another indicator of the problems he has shooting.

I agree and i don't know his history at the line in HS but if he's going to drive and get fouled, that has to improve. Would love it if someone knew his FT% in HS? I love him as a player and he's a terrific defender. I think you're right on track with being more judicious with certain shots. I have the same issue with Eugene. He's a warrior and sometimes his outside shots fall; but there are better Eugene shots when he can back a guy down and use the glass and sometimes he waste possessions and those are killers. And clearly, Gene reserves certain rights based on his production. I just think if both guys use better judgement, we are better off.

 

[Degaz-RU]

I'm just reacting to the numbers that you chose to argue with. As to Harper, your second paragraph comes off as hopefulness, which is fine. Again, I'll take his overall numbers not a cherry-picked subset and things you heard as better indicators of reality. Same thing with your third paragraph and Omo. "We heard coming into the season that he had developed the shot." Well, that should teach you something about relying on "we heard" stuff. "We heard" that about a lot of players. "We hear" that almost every off-season about some player. And then the season starts. In the end, the team shot horribly this year and, if we are relying on the same players to change that, well, they need to make massive shooting improvements. Setting aside what "we hear," that's not usually how it goes. But we were young, and young players have more opportunity to improve than older players. I'd feel much better, though, if the effort to improve involved adding at least 2 new players with better, established shooting skills.

Agreed. I think using the league-play only stats provide a better assessment of the freshmen after an initial period adjusting to the college game (albeit against competition mostly inferior to Big 10). These stats are a better indicator of how the freshman will do next year.

I think RU-ROCS is on the money, here. I think 19 league games is a big enough sample size such that we can say that the first 12 games were not indicative of what we will be getting from the freshmen as three-point shooters. They were just getting their feet wet in Nov/Dec., and once the calendar turned to 2019, I think they were more comfortable and we were seeing what they naturally bring to the table, instead of seeing green kids who were still jittery and getting used to the speed of the college game.

 

[mikefla]

I am amazed how quickly some here can get negative.

It get old.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

I agree and i don't know his history at the line in HS but if he's going to drive and get fouled, that has to improve. Would love it if someone knew his FT% in HS? I love him as a player and he's a terrific defender. I think you're right on track with being more judicious with certain shots. I have the same issue with Eugene. He's a warrior and sometimes his outside shots fall; but there are better Eugene shots when he can back a guy down and use the glass and sometimes he waste possessions and those are killers. And clearly, Gene reserves certain rights based on his production. I just think if both guys use better judgement, we are better off.

In his senior year he made 78 of 130 FT. 60%

 

[bowlgoal]

In his senior year he made 78 of 130 FT. 60%

Thanks Loyal. Appreciate the stat. So I guess no good in terms of FT%. I wonder if that's something that can improve? He's going to be fouled a lot with his aggressiveness.

 

[Scangg]

I'm just reacting to the numbers that you chose to argue with. As to Harper, your second paragraph comes off as hopefulness, which is fine. Again, I'll take his overall numbers not a cherry-picked subset and things you heard as better indicators of reality. Same thing with your third paragraph and Omo. "We heard coming into the season that he had developed the shot." Well, that should teach you something about relying on "we heard" stuff. "We heard" that about a lot of players. "We hear" that almost every off-season about some player. And then the season starts. In the end, the team shot horribly this year and, if we are relying on the same players to change that, well, they need to make massive shooting improvements. Setting aside what "we hear," that's not usually how it goes. But we were young, and young players have more opportunity to improve than older players. I'd feel much better, though, if the effort to improve involved adding at least 2 new players with better, established shooting skills.

You're talking about overall numbers as if that is a better predictor of what we will see next season. It just flat out is not. How a true freshman shot in his first few games is basically irrelevant in predicting next seasons shooting. Harper shot a much better percentage against much better competition in the B1G. He's obviously going to be shooting closer to those numbers than his early season struggles. The most likely scenario by far is an even higher 3 point percentage next season. That's not being hopeful. It's being realistic

 

[willisneverrana43]

You're talking about overall numbers as if that is a better predictor of what we will see next season. It just flat out is not. How a true freshman shot in his first few games is basically irrelevant in predicting next seasons shooting. Harper shot a much better percentage against much better competition in the B1G. He's obviously going to be shooting closer to those numbers than his early season struggles. The most likely scenario by far is an even higher 3 point percentage next season. That's not being hopeful. It's being realistic

It's the very definition of data mining or cherry picking. A post-hoc analysis of a subset of data based on a post-hoc justification for doing so, all of which you've just done. Do you really want to continue down this road that you've started on, because the trip can just as easily be made to look not pretty. Did you check Harper Jr.'s league stats against teams other than Iowa--his two big 3 point games? Did you notice how his last two games against league opponents were 1 for 10? Or the other league 0-fers, including an 0 for 7?

His stats are his stats and you don't get to pick and choose for the outcome you want. We can agree that he's young and showed flashes that suggest that he might turn into a good 3-point shooter. But that notion that he already has is absurd and can only be reached by playing games with the data.

 

[RUJMM78]

I'm not sure what constitutes over the top. But to become a league contender and contender to make the NCAAs RU needs at least two players who are not add-ons but instead will be our best players. We have improved and stocked a roster full of viable players. But we are lacking high-end offensive talent. Now, some of that might develop. But maybe not. There's a reason that we've been last, last and twelfth, and Pike has to continue to upgrade talent. That will still take some time, so I don't agree that we are right on the edge.

Spot on comments especially the talent level versus league rivals.The team still has offensive problems with foul shooting missed layups and lack of consistent 3 point shooters.Filling the 2 scholarships must focus on a 3 point shooter for the small forward position and a power forward/center who can rebound/defend and can score some points coming off the bench.Bottom line evaluating Rutgers can't be done without taking into account league opposition as to players returning and recruited.I doubt Rutgers will be ranked higher than 10th preseason unless they bring in a difference maker recruit/scorer during the off season.