ACC Future conference scenarios - what I'm hearing

[JayDogSmooth]

Timeframes vary, but this is what I've gathered so far

48/60 team 2/3 major conferences, with potential for 20 team / 4 conference scenario (conference $ different)
SEC / BIG two major $$ conferences
Pac/B12/ACC merges to form 1 conference / 2 conferences


ND first domino - if they play ball, Stanford comes along and both are added to the B1G (if not, it's Oregon & Washington)

SEC counters by adding FSU/Clemson - GOR being worked out, SEC helps pay, but adding them is inevitable

*** I have my doubts GOR getting solved this quickly, but others in the know are very confident (I tend to think the ACC implodes all at once with 9 teams bolting, which is the necessary amount needed to dissolve GOR and making it easier to dissolve GOR $$/legal wise)

Not getting left out - UNC, Duke, Miami, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
Potentially getting left out - GT, Pitt, NC State, Louisville
Likely getting left out (not in SEC/B1G) - Wake, Cuse, BC

Final predictions (no timeframe, but likely in next 18-24 months)
SEC - FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT
B1G - UNC, UVA, Duke, GT
Mix of Pac/B12/ACC - NC State, Pitt, Ville
Not sure - Cuse, Wake, BC

I think 24 teams is the max the conferences will go due to scheduling, logistics, etc. but hard to say at this point (20 would be even better but $ rules the day)

 

[RUforlife]

Timeframes vary, but this is what I've gathered so far

48/60 team 2/3 major conferences, with potential for 20 team / 4 conference scenario (conference $ different)
SEC / BIG two major $$ conferences
Pac/B12/ACC merges to form 1 conference / 2 conferences


ND first domino - if they play ball, Stanford comes along and both are added to the B1G (if not, it's Oregon & Washington)

SEC counters by adding FSU/Clemson - GOR being worked out, SEC helps pay, but adding them is inevitable

*** I have my doubts GOR getting solved this quickly, but others in the know are very confident (I tend to think the ACC implodes all at once with 9 teams bolting, which is the necessary amount needed to dissolve GOR and making it easier to dissolve GOR $$/legal wise)

Not getting left out - UNC, Duke, Miami, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
Potentially getting left out - GT, Pitt, NC State, Louisville
Likely getting left out (not in SEC/B1G) - Wake, Cuse, BC

Final predictions (no timeframe, but likely in next 18-24 months)
SEC - FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT
B1G - UNC, UVA, Duke, GT
Mix of Pac/B12/ACC - NC State, Pitt, Ville
Not sure - Cuse, Wake, BC

I think 24 teams is the max the conferences will go due to scheduling, logistics, etc. but hard to say at this point (20 would be even better but $ rules the day)

People need to get it out of their head that ND gives a crap about Stanford. OMG, ND makes decisions based on revenue $s. Conference realignment is being driven by football revenue, period, it has nothing to do with academic reputations or Olympic sports. If ND joins the B1G it will be based on their own $ interest, they will want the B1G to make all decisions based on revenue, not on some misplaced loyalty to a school with a football program that is deemed irrelevant to a good portion of its own alumni. ND isn't hung up on AAU membership or any academic qualifications, they are all about the $s and nothing more.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

People need to get it out of their head that ND gives a crap about Stanford. OMG, ND makes decisions based on revenue $s. Conference realignment is being driven by football revenue, period, it has doing to do with academic reputations or Olympic sports. If ND joins the B1G it will be based on their own $ interest, they will want the B1G to make all decisions based on revenue, not on some misplaced loyalty to a school with a football program that is deemed irrelevant to a good portion of its own alumni. ND isn't hung up on AAU membership or any academic qualifications, they are all about the $s and nothing more.

ND cares about ND
B1G adds Stanford if ND comes along
If no ND right now, it's Washington & Oregon

 

[pmvon]

people are so funny. It’s only money. Yeah it’s the biggest driver but there can be other things that are important to schools. If it was only money why didn’t USC and UCLA reach out to the SEC or why didn’t ND just join the SEC. Because they would prefer to be aligned the BIG schools for all the reasons cited. It will definitely be a factor in decision making.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

ND cares about ND
B1G adds Stanford if ND comes along
If no ND right now, it's Washington & Oregon

Why would the BIG want Stanford as a result of adding ND? I agree with RUforLife. Just not seeing Stanford being a male or break factor to secure ND one way or the other.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

people are so funny. It’s only money. Yeah it’s the biggest driver but there can be other things that are important to schools. If it was only money why didn’t USC and UCLA reach out to the SEC or why didn’t ND just join the SEC. Because they would prefer to be aligned the BIG schools for all the reasons cited. It will definitely be a factor in decision making.

$$$ rules the day in regard to conferences looking for additions, while to your point, schools looking for conferences have other things (research, funding, etc.) besides just money on their minds

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Why would the BIG want Stanford as a result of adding ND? I agree with RUforLife. Just not seeing Stanford being a male or break factor to secure ND one way or the other.

Stanford is not make or break for ND
Right now, if ND goes B1G, B1G grabs Stanford as well
If no ND right now, it's Washington/Oregon

 

[Scarlet83]

Timeframes vary, but this is what I've gathered so far

48/60 team 2/3 major conferences, with potential for 20 team / 4 conference scenario (conference $ different)
SEC / BIG two major $$ conferences
Pac/B12/ACC merges to form 1 conference / 2 conferences


ND first domino - if they play ball, Stanford comes along and both are added to the B1G (if not, it's Oregon & Washington)

SEC counters by adding FSU/Clemson - GOR being worked out, SEC helps pay, but adding them is inevitable

*** I have my doubts GOR getting solved this quickly, but others in the know are very confident (I tend to think the ACC implodes all at once with 9 teams bolting, which is the necessary amount needed to dissolve GOR and making it easier to dissolve GOR $$/legal wise)

Not getting left out - UNC, Duke, Miami, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
Potentially getting left out - GT, Pitt, NC State, Louisville
Likely getting left out (not in SEC/B1G) - Wake, Cuse, BC

Final predictions (no timeframe, but likely in next 18-24 months)
SEC - FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT
B1G - UNC, UVA, Duke, GT
Mix of Pac/B12/ACC - NC State, Pitt, Ville
Not sure - Cuse, Wake, BC

I think 24 teams is the max the conferences will go due to scheduling, logistics, etc. but hard to say at this point (20 would be even better but $ rules the day)

You lose me with 3 major conferences. If what’s left of the ACC/PAC 12/Big 12 somehow join together, all it makes them is a tier 2 conference with a lot of members.

 

[RUforlife]

ND cares about ND
B1G adds Stanford if ND comes along
If no ND right now, it's Washington & Oregon

The B1G is not adding Stanford, if they add any team from the Bay Area it will be Cal. Stanford has no following beyond some limited alumni. Stanford football is a morgue, no one outside some students and alumni care anything about Stanford football in the Bay Area. It is a medium sized elitist academic school (about 7,000 undergrads) that most people do not identify with, Cal is a large state school (over 30,000 undergrads) that has much wider appeal.

 

[Scarlet83]

Timeframes vary, but this is what I've gathered so far

48/60 team 2/3 major conferences, with potential for 20 team / 4 conference scenario (conference $ different)
SEC / BIG two major $$ conferences
Pac/B12/ACC merges to form 1 conference / 2 conferences


ND first domino - if they play ball, Stanford comes along and both are added to the B1G (if not, it's Oregon & Washington)

SEC counters by adding FSU/Clemson - GOR being worked out, SEC helps pay, but adding them is inevitable

*** I have my doubts GOR getting solved this quickly, but others in the know are very confident (I tend to think the ACC implodes all at once with 9 teams bolting, which is the necessary amount needed to dissolve GOR and making it easier to dissolve GOR $$/legal wise)

Not getting left out - UNC, Duke, Miami, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
Potentially getting left out - GT, Pitt, NC State, Louisville
Likely getting left out (not in SEC/B1G) - Wake, Cuse, BC

Final predictions (no timeframe, but likely in next 18-24 months)
SEC - FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT
B1G - UNC, UVA, Duke, GT
Mix of Pac/B12/ACC - NC State, Pitt, Ville
Not sure - Cuse, Wake, BC

I think 24 teams is the max the conferences will go due to scheduling, logistics, etc. but hard to say at this point (20 would be even better but $ rules the day)

And who are you hearing this from?

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

You lose me with 3 major conferences. If what’s left of the ACC/PAC 12/Big 12 somehow join together, all it makes them is a tier 2 conference with a lot of members.

Second tier in terms of revenue potential but that surviving conference will still have some good football teams. The conference will likely get an autobid guarantee in the playoff. That’s probably what he meant.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

You lose me with 3 major conferences. If what’s left of the ACC/PAC 12/Big 12 somehow join together, all it makes them is a tier 2 conference with a lot of members.

Major in regard to being eligible for playoff, but with significantly less money and at a huge disadvantage in other areas as well

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Second tier in terms of revenue potential but that surviving conference will still have some good football teams. The conference will likely get an autobid guarantee in the playoff. That’s probably what he meant.

This

 

[JayDogSmooth]

The B1G is not adding Stanford, if they add any team from the Bay Area it will be Cal. Stanford has no following beyond some limited alumni. Stanford football is a morgue, no one outside some students and alumni care anything about Stanford football in the Bay Area. It is a medium sized elitist academic school (about 7,000 undergrads) that most people do not identify with, Cal is a large state school (over 30,000 undergrads) that has much wider appeal.

ND has a lot of pull
If ND prefers Stanford for addition, and it means getting ND, Stanford it is
Stanford is a bigger national name than Cal, though I'd imagine Cal is far bigger in CA
Cal makes more sense, but they're not worth battling over if it means getting ND

 

[Scarlet16E]

while you may end up being correct, your implication is that there is some sort of master plan to this. I don’t buy that at all.

 

[czxqa]

Stanford is not make or break for ND
Right now, if ND goes B1G, B1G grabs Stanford as well
If no ND right now, it's Washington/Oregon

Washington and Oregon have already reached out and have been told that the Big Ten is standing pat for now. Maybe that's because we're waiting for ND, but they do cherish their independence, so maybe they really are just waiting for the repercussions of this move to work themselves out.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...s-oregon-washington-its-standing-pat-for-now/

As an aside, I don't think the ACC GOR means a hill of beans anymore, not when you compare the $50mm exit fee to the reported $100mm annual payout per school. Finance that $50mm over five years and you're still talking about an ACC team more than doubling their revenue overnight.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

while you may end up being correct, your implication is that there is some sort of master plan to this. I don’t buy that at all.

No master plan
It's a chess game between 2 major conferences
Both of whom are looking to come out on top
There will be some causalities, and things will look lot different in a few years

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Washington and Oregon have already reached out and have been told that the Big Ten is standing pat for now. Maybe that's because we're waiting for ND, but they do cherish their independence, so maybe they really are just waiting for the repercussions of this move to work themselves out.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...s-oregon-washington-its-standing-pat-for-now/

As an aside, I don't think the ACC GOR means a hill of beans anymore, not when you compare the $50mm exit fee to the reported $100mm annual payout per school. Finance that $50mm over five years and you're still talking about an ACC team more than doubling their revenue overnight.

Exit fee is different, that's what Maryland paid when they left
GOR is $$ revenue rights, projected to be ~500 million (give or take 100 million) until 2036
It's definitely a hurdle, but one that's being actively looked at as we speak

 

[RUforlife]

ND has a lot of pull
If ND prefers Stanford for addition, and it means getting ND, Stanford it is
Stanford is a bigger national name than Cal, though I'd imagine Cal is far bigger in CA
Cal makes more sense, but they're not worth battling over if it means getting ND

Harvard has a bigger national name than Stanford, we are not inviting Harvard. Stanford football has no national name, Stanford University is an elite national university. Again, Stanford football is not even followed in the Bay Area. ND will demand that the B1G focus on the $s, they do not make decisions based on sentimentality. They can always play Stanford as an OOC game.

 

[Rufaninga]

I don't see B1G adding GT.
I would love to see RU play here.
GT does not have a big following. It's UGA/SEC down here. Great academics, but doubt it

 

[rutgersguy1]

Timeframes vary, but this is what I've gathered so far

48/60 team 2/3 major conferences, with potential for 20 team / 4 conference scenario (conference $ different)
SEC / BIG two major $$ conferences
Pac/B12/ACC merges to form 1 conference / 2 conferences


ND first domino - if they play ball, Stanford comes along and both are added to the B1G (if not, it's Oregon & Washington)

SEC counters by adding FSU/Clemson - GOR being worked out, SEC helps pay, but adding them is inevitable

*** I have my doubts GOR getting solved this quickly, but others in the know are very confident (I tend to think the ACC implodes all at once with 9 teams bolting, which is the necessary amount needed to dissolve GOR and making it easier to dissolve GOR $$/legal wise)

Not getting left out - UNC, Duke, Miami, UVA, UNC, FSU, Clemson
Potentially getting left out - GT, Pitt, NC State, Louisville
Likely getting left out (not in SEC/B1G) - Wake, Cuse, BC

Final predictions (no timeframe, but likely in next 18-24 months)
SEC - FSU, Clemson, Miami, VT
B1G - UNC, UVA, Duke, GT
Mix of Pac/B12/ACC - NC State, Pitt, Ville
Not sure - Cuse, Wake, BC

I think 24 teams is the max the conferences will go due to scheduling, logistics, etc. but hard to say at this point (20 would be even better but $ rules the day)

Won't get into the finer points because who the heck knows but on a 10000 foot level, I actually could see that in the sense of B10/SEC and then some sort of partnership (lets call it an "Alliance") among the PAC12/B12/ACC. When and how, who knows but as an eventual end point some where in the future I think it's plausible. It's the same kind of things I've mentioned with streaming services. If you're DIS, NFLX, WBD you can go it alone but if you're Paramount, Peacock, AMC+...etc..you're probably better pooling and bundling your services together and selling it.

I have also said since last summer that I think 24 teams is the max a conference would go. I do think 20 can be a "rest stop" on the way to 24 though if a conference wants to go that far.

 

[Scarlet83]

ND has a lot of pull
If ND prefers Stanford for addition, and it means getting ND, Stanford it is
Stanford is a bigger national name than Cal, though I'd imagine Cal is far bigger in CA
Cal makes more sense, but they're not worth battling over if it means getting ND

I disagree. The B1G has the leverage, not ND.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Harvard has a bigger national name than Stanford, we are not inviting Harvard. Stanford football has no national name, Stanford University is an elite national university. Again, Stanford football is not even followed in the Bay Area. ND will demand that the B1G focus on the $s, they do not make decisions based on sentimentality. They can always play Stanford as an OOC game.

Not saying I disagree with you, just saying what I've heard

 

[JayDogSmooth]

I don't see B1G adding GT.
I would love to see RU play here.
GT does not have a big following. It's UGA/SEC down here. Great academics, but doubt it

They're more B1G than SEC, but I could also see them getting left out potentially
Lot on the table

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Won't get into the finer points because who the heck knows but on a 10000 foot level, I actually could see that in the sense of B10/SEC and then some sort of partnership (lets call it an "Alliance") among the PAC12/B12/ACC. When and how, who knows but as an eventual end point some where in the future I think it's plausible. It's the same kind of things I've mentioned with streaming services. If you're DIS, NFLX, WBD you can go it alone but if you're Paramount, Peacock, AMC+...etc..you're probably better pooling and bundling your services together and selling it.

I have also said since last summer that I think 24 teams is the max a conference would go. I do think 20 can be a "rest stop" on the way to 24 though if a conference wants to go that far.

Might be right but as we saw w/the Alliance, it's every man for themselves

 

[JayDogSmooth]

I disagree. The B1G has the leverage, not ND.

ND is still ND
They won't hold up the B1G, as the B1G isn't the ACC or Big East
But adding them would be a huge coup for the B1G, and send shockwaves throughout college FB

 

[RUforlife]

Not saying I disagree with you, just saying what I've heard

I am not saying people aren't hearing this stuff about Stanford, I am just not buying it. If these decisions were being based on a host of factors adding Stanford might be appealing, but they are not, these decisions are based on which product (school) brings the most revenue to the conference and there are simply much better candidates than Stanford, and ND is one institution that has laser vision when it comes to the bucks.

 

[RutgersNo1]

Why is Duke safe? Who cares about Duke football?

 

[tom1944]

I think Stanford/Cal is better than Oregon/Washington

 

[colbert17]

I can see the start of the NWU Conference (Nobody Wants Us)

Wake, BC, Cuse, G Tech, Louisville plus three AAC teams
They add UConn for competitive balance and to bring in the Hartford TV market (#32 nationally)

 

[RUBlackout]

NO chance GT and Duke end up in B1G

UVA/UNC a very good chance and Oregon/Washington have a much better chance of joining than them

 

[Scarlet83]

Not saying I disagree with you, just saying what I've heard

And who did you hear this from? Sources are important.

 

[Scarlet83]

ND is still ND
They won't hold up the B1G, as the B1G isn't the ACC or Big East
But adding them would be a huge coup for the B1G, and send shockwaves throughout college FB

Do you seriously believe that OSU and Michigan (who leads the B1G) are going to give ND any power? The B1G (think OSU and Michigan) has all of the leverage.

The B1G does not need ND. ND needs the B1G.

 

[Scarlet83]

I think Stanford/Cal is better than Oregon/Washington

I think Cal and Oregon is the much better option.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Might be right but as we saw w/the Alliance, it's every man for themselves

I think you may have misunderstood. I'm not saying teams won't leave to the B10/SEC eventually. Whenever that time comes (ACC GOR expiration is my guess), it will be every man for themselves. I'm saying whatever is leftover after that yea those schools in the 3 conferences maybe can partner together and sell themselves as a package to the networks. I'm not saying that will happen but I could see it happen. Maybe for football they do it but for their other sports they stay separate, I don't know. The logistics who knows but just from the 10000 foot level it seems plausible.

 

[knightfan7]

Why is Duke safe? Who cares about Duke football?

You're going to make Dickie V cry talking that way about Duke.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Why is Duke safe? Who cares about Duke football?

I kind of wonder about that and without Coach K will they have the same excellence?

It's kind of what I even brought up about Oregon, Phil Knight is 84. If he hasn't taken care of them in his will, do they still have the boosters and wherewithal to be the same flashy Nike progam everyone knows them to be. Still could be a decent addition but is some of the luster off?

 

[tom1944]

I think Cal and Oregon is the much better option.

If they go to 18 I would add Cal and Stanford

If 20 Arizona and Colorado

I think 6 teams to the west might be enough.

 

[RutgersNo1]

I kind of wonder about that and without Coach K will they have the same excellence?

It's kind of what I even brought up about Oregon, Phil Knight is 84. If he hasn't taken care of them in his will, do they still have the boosters and wherewithal to be the same flashy Nike progam everyone knows them to be. Still could be a decent addition but is some of the luster off?

Duke basketball is nothing without K.
Duke football couldn’t fill the stadium when they had 10-win, 9-win season.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Exit fee is different, that's what Maryland paid when they left
GOR is $$ revenue rights, projected to be ~500 million (give or take 100 million) until 2036
It's definitely a hurdle, but one that's being actively looked at as we speak

500M is a figure I can possibly believe. I've said it must be in the 100s of millions if ND is reported to be around 140M and that's not including football.

Exit fee of 50M in addition I can believe but not as the only financial penalty. Even Texas/OU have an 80M exit fee but I didn't think that was the only penalty...the GOR penalty is on top of that. So 80M plus whatever many years of conference revenue are left. Right now say 3 years left at 40M/yr (their approximate reported annual conference distribution from the B12) would put their penalties around 200M each and that's why they are sticking around. As every year goes by though 40M or so is subtracted and that's why I say okay I can believe 1-2 years early maybe but 10+ years left seems a stretch.