The NCAA is considering less reliance on RPI and more on other models like Sagarin, bpi, kenpom
Bac's First NCAA Analysis 2/20/17
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The NCAA is considering less reliance on RPI and more on other models like Sagarin, bpi, kenpom
Recapping last night....
TCU lost at Kansas, they were not expected to win, it does not kill them but the loss probably moves them from in to out for now. They simply are going to need some quality wins down the stretch
Cal blew a lead and missed a chance to lock in with the loss to Oregon. They needed a signature win as they have just one top 50 and are only 4-8 vs top 100. Only one of last 3 provides a shot at top 100 win and beating Utah really does not move any needles. This is a team in trouble if other schools around them make bubble runs. Their profile consists of one win over USC
Syracuse moved to near lock status with their thrilling win over Duke. They resume is stocked with big wins...6 top 50 wins
Providence rallied to win at Creighton, a huge win for the Friars that pushed their mark to 5-7 vs top 50 and 9-8 vs top 100. I think the Friars are last out right now,, big bubble showdown with Marquette up next
Minnesota punched their ticket with a win over Maryland.
Vanderbilt won at Tennessee giving the Vols their 10th top 100 win (10-12)...the overall record is wobbly at 15-13 meaning but they are moving closer up the bubble ranks. Costly loss for Tennessee though which bounces them out of the last 4 out.
Pitt losing to Wake really hurts the Panthers who will need a deep ACC tourney run now, meanwhile Wake helping their profile, still out but now moving to last 4 out position.
Michigan got a needed win at Rutgers to continue to build their profile
Illinois State averted disaster by holding off Southern Illinois...in for now but its precarious
Georgetown loses to De Paul, falls to 14-14 and are officially out of contention for an at large bid...must win the Big East tourney
Seton Hall got a big win over Xavier. Pirates solidifying their resume, now with 4 top 50 wins and must avoid a slip up to De Paul...they may now actually have a better profile than Xavier who I had as a lock but may revisit that giving the surges of Providence and Marquette....can the Big East get 7 bids? Xavier has lost 4 in a row and despite an rpi of 22, are only 3-7 vs top 50 schools
Arkansas held serve against Texas A&M. Razorbacks in decent shape but need to keep winning.
Oklahoma State very close now after winning at Kansas State, maybe get the win over Texas Tech on Saturday to make it academic. Kansas State meanwhile moves to the last 4 in line and really needs to win its last 3 to maintain its spot in the tourney and unfortunately even then only a chance for one more top 100 win which they only have 5 right now...most bubblicious of all.
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, KANSAS STATE
LAST 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, TCU, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST
TCU lost at Kansas, they were not expected to win, it does not kill them but the loss probably moves them from in to out for now. They simply are going to need some quality wins down the stretch
Cal blew a lead and missed a chance to lock in with the loss to Oregon. They needed a signature win as they have just one top 50 and are only 4-8 vs top 100. Only one of last 3 provides a shot at top 100 win and beating Utah really does not move any needles. This is a team in trouble if other schools around them make bubble runs. Their profile consists of one win over USC
Syracuse moved to near lock status with their thrilling win over Duke. They resume is stocked with big wins...6 top 50 wins
Providence rallied to win at Creighton, a huge win for the Friars that pushed their mark to 5-7 vs top 50 and 9-8 vs top 100. I think the Friars are last out right now,, big bubble showdown with Marquette up next
Minnesota punched their ticket with a win over Maryland.
Vanderbilt won at Tennessee giving the Vols their 10th top 100 win (10-12)...the overall record is wobbly at 15-13 meaning but they are moving closer up the bubble ranks. Costly loss for Tennessee though which bounces them out of the last 4 out.
Pitt losing to Wake really hurts the Panthers who will need a deep ACC tourney run now, meanwhile Wake helping their profile, still out but now moving to last 4 out position.
Michigan got a needed win at Rutgers to continue to build their profile
Illinois State averted disaster by holding off Southern Illinois...in for now but its precarious
Georgetown loses to De Paul, falls to 14-14 and are officially out of contention for an at large bid...must win the Big East tourney
Seton Hall got a big win over Xavier. Pirates solidifying their resume, now with 4 top 50 wins and must avoid a slip up to De Paul...they may now actually have a better profile than Xavier who I had as a lock but may revisit that giving the surges of Providence and Marquette....can the Big East get 7 bids? Xavier has lost 4 in a row and despite an rpi of 22, are only 3-7 vs top 50 schools
Arkansas held serve against Texas A&M. Razorbacks in decent shape but need to keep winning.
Oklahoma State very close now after winning at Kansas State, maybe get the win over Texas Tech on Saturday to make it academic. Kansas State meanwhile moves to the last 4 in line and really needs to win its last 3 to maintain its spot in the tourney and unfortunately even then only a chance for one more top 100 win which they only have 5 right now...most bubblicious of all.
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, KANSAS STATE
LAST 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, TCU, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST
USC fell to Arizona, no surprise there but need to take care of business down the stretch against ASU/WSU/Wash
Georgia won at Alabama to keep their slim hopes alive. They will need to win out their last 3 to be in serious consideration. Alabama who some had on the bubble but not me despite their decent 9-6 SEC mark I suppose can win their last 3 and get to the SEC finals but that is pretty much their only hope as they have a 4-10 mark vs top 100 schools
Michigan State notched their 9th top 100 win by taking care of Nebby...probably just need to win at Illinois to lock in but a win at Wisky would make it academic
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, KANSAS STATE
LAST 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, TCU, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST
Georgia won at Alabama to keep their slim hopes alive. They will need to win out their last 3 to be in serious consideration. Alabama who some had on the bubble but not me despite their decent 9-6 SEC mark I suppose can win their last 3 and get to the SEC finals but that is pretty much their only hope as they have a 4-10 mark vs top 100 schools
Michigan State notched their 9th top 100 win by taking care of Nebby...probably just need to win at Illinois to lock in but a win at Wisky would make it academic
LAST 4 IN: GEORGIA TECH, ILLINOIS STATE, CALIFORNIA, KANSAS STATE
LAST 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, TCU, VANDERBILT, WAKE FOREST
I think right now the Hall is in...the only uncertainty is can the Big East get 7 schools in...not so sure. If PC makes a run then who is out. Xavier's profile has fallen, I think besides SOS, SHU's resume is actually slightly better. I had Xavier as a lock but now they are back on the bubble big time. Marquette is strengthening their resume. Bubble in general is weak but for SHU I think they cannot afford to lose at De Paul...that would be a very very bad costly loss. If they beat De Paul and Gtown I think they pretty much have locked things up no matter what happens, do not give the committee reasons to leave you out.
SHU is in unless they drop the next 3 of the next 4....(GTown/Butler, 1st round of BE tournament)....can't see them losing at DePaul or at home to slumping GTown......Hoyas are clearly the most disappointing team in the conference, they have a lot of pieces to work with.
I tend to think Xavier isn't an NCAA team right now, they just aren't the same team and have a chance to lose 5 or 6 straight games, which is impossible to ignore down the stretch here. Marquette and PC cancel each other out in my opinion, whomever does better in the end will squeeze in.....I am leaning towards Marquette, even though the stats or RPI tend to tell me they are still out right now.
The committee has a tough job with a few leagues like the Big East and Big 12....there are some decent bubble teams that are hot right now. I think Oklahoma State has played themselves into the tournament after starting 0-5 or 0-6 in conference.
I tend to think Xavier isn't an NCAA team right now, they just aren't the same team and have a chance to lose 5 or 6 straight games, which is impossible to ignore down the stretch here. Marquette and PC cancel each other out in my opinion, whomever does better in the end will squeeze in.....I am leaning towards Marquette, even though the stats or RPI tend to tell me they are still out right now.
The committee has a tough job with a few leagues like the Big East and Big 12....there are some decent bubble teams that are hot right now. I think Oklahoma State has played themselves into the tournament after starting 0-5 or 0-6 in conference.
You'd have to hope they suffer a let down. If we lose it's really inexcusable. They won't have taken it seriously
recapping a busy weekend...
starting with today
Michigan State got a big win at home over Wisconsin. MSU now has 6 top 50 and 10 top 100 wins. Two road games vs Illinois and Maryland left and winning one more locks them in for sure but thinking is here that today win probably is enough. Wisky going to take a seeding hit.
Syracuse falls to Louisville by 20, no shame in that loss. I think Cuse is in good shape given how poor the bubble is but I would hesitate to lock them yet.
Xavier may have a great overall rpi but another loss today this time at home to Butler. Now down to 18-11/8-8 in the Big East so proceed with caution on next 2. They have lost 5 straight and need to stop the bleeding pronto by beating Marquette. Still in but getting closer to the bubble
Valpo loses to No. Kentucky. Their at large changes are pretty much gone if they do not win the Horizon tourney
Middle Tennessee State survived an upset bid at UAB to push their mark to 25-4, very much in the running for an at large if they do not win the CUSA tourney.
Houston survived at Memphis....distant longshot has to win at Cincy to remain in the discussion
Monmouth won at Iona, but if they couldn't get an at large last year why would they get one this year, better win the MAAC tourney
Ga Tech trailing Notre Dame late...Yellow Jackets really need this one to stay in as they are last team in but their fate probably lies moreso with next two and ACC tourney
USC up late on ASU, but probably needs one more win after this to be sure
Illinois tied with Nebby in a big game...its survive and advance mode for them
starting with today
Michigan State got a big win at home over Wisconsin. MSU now has 6 top 50 and 10 top 100 wins. Two road games vs Illinois and Maryland left and winning one more locks them in for sure but thinking is here that today win probably is enough. Wisky going to take a seeding hit.
Syracuse falls to Louisville by 20, no shame in that loss. I think Cuse is in good shape given how poor the bubble is but I would hesitate to lock them yet.
Xavier may have a great overall rpi but another loss today this time at home to Butler. Now down to 18-11/8-8 in the Big East so proceed with caution on next 2. They have lost 5 straight and need to stop the bleeding pronto by beating Marquette. Still in but getting closer to the bubble
Valpo loses to No. Kentucky. Their at large changes are pretty much gone if they do not win the Horizon tourney
Middle Tennessee State survived an upset bid at UAB to push their mark to 25-4, very much in the running for an at large if they do not win the CUSA tourney.
Houston survived at Memphis....distant longshot has to win at Cincy to remain in the discussion
Monmouth won at Iona, but if they couldn't get an at large last year why would they get one this year, better win the MAAC tourney
Ga Tech trailing Notre Dame late...Yellow Jackets really need this one to stay in as they are last team in but their fate probably lies moreso with next two and ACC tourney
USC up late on ASU, but probably needs one more win after this to be sure
Illinois tied with Nebby in a big game...its survive and advance mode for them
Saturday's games...
Pitt losing at home to UNC, Panthers are just about done now, only will reconsider if they win last 2 and make ACC tourney finals
ditto for Clemson after their loss to FSU, I think they need to win the ACC tourney now though
Miami beat Duke and is a lock now if they were not before
Va Tech beat BC and I would say they are in near lock status now
Rhode Island with a big win over VCU to legitimately give them a shot at an at large..need to keep winning though as much as possible. Meanwhile VCU falls out of first and onto the bubble. Not the most overwhelming of profiles but a win over Dayton would change that and put them back in first...but one more win somewhere would lock them in I think
Moving Iowa State to lock status after a win over Baylor.
Oklahoma State moves to near lock status after handling Texas Tech. ISU and Kansas still to come. Texas Tech pretty much out of it now, get to the Big 12 tourney final and then we will talk
TCU suffered a crushing missed opportunity loss to WVU their 5th in a row...they are clearly out for now. Now will need to win last two and probably make the Big 12 semis if not finals to have a legit shot
Kansas State 30 point loss to a 2nd tier Oklahoma bounces them out of the field for now. That is 5 losses in last 6 and 7 of last 9. Will need next two and then run at least to Big 12 semis if not finals
Seton Hall in pretty good shape taking another step by winning at De Paul. Providence moved into the field by rallying to beat Marquette. The latter missed an opportunity to distance themselves from the bubble but now moves closer to it.
Michigan won at Purdue and I would put them in near lock status now with road games at Nebby and Northwestern to come
Northwestern suffered heartbreaking loss to Indiana that prevents them from locking. Still looking for that needed one more win with Michigan and Purdue coming. Indiana keeps their flickering hopes alive. Lets see if they can win at Purdue and Ohio State
Tennessee gets hammered by South Carolina and that is pretty it for the Vols....they might get back on the board if they reach the SEC finals but that is it. So Carolina moves to near lock status with the win.
Ole Miss and Georgia win to keep their slim hopes alive
Vandy wins and might be better positioned then the above two with better numbers
Arkansas moved a step closer to locking in with at Auburn
Alabama cooked and done after losing to Texas A&M
Pitt losing at home to UNC, Panthers are just about done now, only will reconsider if they win last 2 and make ACC tourney finals
ditto for Clemson after their loss to FSU, I think they need to win the ACC tourney now though
Miami beat Duke and is a lock now if they were not before
Va Tech beat BC and I would say they are in near lock status now
Rhode Island with a big win over VCU to legitimately give them a shot at an at large..need to keep winning though as much as possible. Meanwhile VCU falls out of first and onto the bubble. Not the most overwhelming of profiles but a win over Dayton would change that and put them back in first...but one more win somewhere would lock them in I think
Moving Iowa State to lock status after a win over Baylor.
Oklahoma State moves to near lock status after handling Texas Tech. ISU and Kansas still to come. Texas Tech pretty much out of it now, get to the Big 12 tourney final and then we will talk
TCU suffered a crushing missed opportunity loss to WVU their 5th in a row...they are clearly out for now. Now will need to win last two and probably make the Big 12 semis if not finals to have a legit shot
Kansas State 30 point loss to a 2nd tier Oklahoma bounces them out of the field for now. That is 5 losses in last 6 and 7 of last 9. Will need next two and then run at least to Big 12 semis if not finals
Seton Hall in pretty good shape taking another step by winning at De Paul. Providence moved into the field by rallying to beat Marquette. The latter missed an opportunity to distance themselves from the bubble but now moves closer to it.
Michigan won at Purdue and I would put them in near lock status now with road games at Nebby and Northwestern to come
Northwestern suffered heartbreaking loss to Indiana that prevents them from locking. Still looking for that needed one more win with Michigan and Purdue coming. Indiana keeps their flickering hopes alive. Lets see if they can win at Purdue and Ohio State
Tennessee gets hammered by South Carolina and that is pretty it for the Vols....they might get back on the board if they reach the SEC finals but that is it. So Carolina moves to near lock status with the win.
Ole Miss and Georgia win to keep their slim hopes alive
Vandy wins and might be better positioned then the above two with better numbers
Arkansas moved a step closer to locking in with at Auburn
Alabama cooked and done after losing to Texas A&M
wow so USC blew a late 10 point lead and lose at ASU..its a bad loss and while it is just their first outside the top 10, their marks of 5-7 vs top 100 and 2-5 vs top 50 are very middling. Better beat both Wash and Wash. St, two bottom feeders to feel safe.
Notre Dame beats Geo Tech which may bounce the Yellowjackets out for now
Notre Dame beats Geo Tech which may bounce the Yellowjackets out for now
Why do some think Syracuse in such good shape? They have some really bad losses verse BC, St. John's, Uconn, gtown. Granted they had some injury problems early, but they also only have two road wins all year. I know they have wins home verse Duke and Virginia, but their resume is nothing special to me. The bubble line must be really weak if they get in. Also, their best out of conference win is probably Monmouth. ESPN made their agenda pretty clear when they start hyping up Cuse after a buzzer beater win verse Duke.
3 top 25 wins
6-6 vs top 50 which is excellent for a bubble team
8-10 vs top 100 which is in line with most
yes some bad losses..but they had these bad losses last year and made the tourney when the bubble was stronger. The bubble is very weak this year but you cannot deny they have very good wins
Duke, Virginia, and FSU are considered great wins
Miami win is looking better and better. OOC yes some weakness, Monmouth is considered a good win. Wake is another top 50 school that is on the bubble. Cuse also benefits from other ACC schools falling off the bubble. The ACC has been the best conference all year. I think its a conference that will get 9 bids, Wake really is the team to watch to steal Cuse's bid. Again not an incredible resume but this year it does not have to be...Illinois has now crept to the last 8 out line.
I do not think that they are a lock though like ESPN guys said after Duke. If they beat Ga Tech I think they are a virtual lock though. If they lose they drop to 14 losses.....if they do not win the ACC tourney they will have 15 losses, no school has ever received a NCAA bid with 15 losses, certainly if they made the ACC finals they would though. I think the Ga Tech game is huge because they will not need a deep ACC tourney run
Gotta be honest, I did not see the FSU win when I first looked the schedule. Being in the ACC definitely helps since their is a ton of opportunities to get top 50 wins. If Cuse was not in the ACC, their poor OOC play would have killed them. But being in ACC gave them the opportunity to beat Duke, UVA, and FSU along with the other top 50 teams. After taking a second look, I'd rather be them over a Bama or Vandy with little opportunity in the SEC. To me, the Georgia Tech game is almost must win. If they lose that game, they need to turn it up a bit in the ACC tournament.
Illinois wins at Nebraska, do not look now but both the Illini and Ohio State as well as Indiana are still in the running for at large bid but lots of work to do for all 3.
